Wednesday November 6, 2024

#DMD

Issue #3727

just score more points than the other guy

So, it's safe to say the Ravens philosophy for the rest of the 2024 season is this: Offense first.

Eric DeCosta did make a deal on Tuesday afternoon but it was for oft-injured ex-Rams cornerback Tre'Davious White, who was a healthy scratch in L.A.'s four most recent games.

Twitter and Ravens-centric websites lit up with criticism for DeCosta after the 4 pm deadline passed yesterday, but the reality is White, much like Diontae Johnson last week, didn't cost the Ravens much of anything. DeCosta swapped 7th round picks to get White, who suffered a torn achilles with the Bills last season and simply never fit in out in Los Angeles.

The issue, of course, is just how much will White help the struggling Ravens pass defense, which currently ranks last in the NFL through nine games?

And on top of that, why didn't DeCosta add a pass rush specialist or even an interior defensive lineman instead of a defensive back?

Did Las Vegas not want to part with Maxx Crosby or did the Ravens pass on him because the price was too rich for their blood?

Only the GM knows the answer to those questions.

Maybe the price tag was too steep. Perhaps no one in the league wanted to go out of their way to help the Ravens. Perhaps DeCosta, Harbaugh, Monken, Orr, et al simply believe the way to go is to emphasize offense to the hilt and take what you can get on defense.

I'll do what I generally do in situations like these.

That is........

I'll trust the guy who does it for a living and eats, breathes and poops football.

I'll trust the guy who thought Derrick Henry would be a great addition to the Baltimore offense.

I'll trust the guy who picked up Roquan Smith at the deadline last season.

I'll trust the guy who picked Zay Flowers #1 in the draft a couple of years ago.

Sure, DeCosta is also the guy who brought in Earl Thomas. He has a few whiffs here and there as well. Every GM does, in fact.

But in the end, I'm going to assume the Ravens and their GM have a plan in place.

My guess is they're just going to try to out-Lamar-Jackson everyone. And here's the thing. I'm all for it. They might have to win big games 33-30 or 34-27, but so be it. It's not "how" you win games. It's "how many" games you win.

So, if you came around here today to see me beat up on Eric DeCosta, you're going to be disappointed.

I reacted the same in late July when Mike Elias added his pieces for the final two months of the regular season.

Zach Eflin was a winner. Eloy Jimenez was a loser. Trevor Rogers was a flop. A couple of other guys helped out here and there, but for the most part, Elias added pieces he thought would help and then Jordan Westburg got hurt and everything changed.

DeCosta added two pieces. I didn't think either of them were "necessary", per se, but if Diontae Johnson hauls in a 33 yard game-winning touchdown pass with 1:30 to go in the AFC title game in Kansas City, his addition was beneficial.

I'm going to trust the guy who forgot more about football than you, me, and all of our friends will ever know.

The Ravens have the best quarterback in football and the best running back, too.

If those guys stay healthy and the likes of Flowers, Andrews, Likely, Bateman don't get hurt, the Ravens are going to put up 30-burgers on almost every team they face.

As long as they only give up 20-burgers along the way, we're fine.

Speaking of the Orioles and their roster, there's probably no real reason for any of us to get overly excited about the upcoming hot stove period.

Here's the deal: Unless they're willing to give up on some veterans, they simply don't have many open spots to fill. Right field is obviously vacant at this point unless the O's somehow convince Anthony Santander to return.

And maybe they are going to part ways with guys like Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle, but who comes in when those two depart?

Here's the quick position-by-position look at the '25 Orioles.

Catcher: Rutschman returns, obviously, but he's not "full time" behind the plate.

They need a competent back-up. James McCann is a free agent now, but if the O's want him back, I'm guessing he'll return. If 2024 is any indication of what the club will do in 2025, they need someone to catch 75 games while Rutschman picks up the rest of them.

First base: Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn will likely continue their platoon formula. That is, unless Mountcastle gets dealt in the off-season.

Second base: Jackson Holliday

Shortstop: Gunnar Henderson

Third base: Jordan Westburg

Left field: Heston Kjersted/Colton Cowser.

Center field: Cedric Mullins/Colton Cowser.

Right field: vacant

Now....

Coby Mayo is going to be a popular discussion point in the winter. What to do with him?

And there are a couple of right field free agents available who would fit in with the way Mike Elias likes to compile his roster: Randal Grichuk and Max Kepler are two names you're going to hear and read as potential Orioles over the cold months ahead.

There are numerous quality free agent pitchers available. Guys like Max Fried, Walker Buehler, Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi are going to be expensive, but they have lots of life left in their pitching arms.

Others like Jose Quintana, Alex Cobb and Patrick Corbin are old, but probably willing to sign one or two year deals just to make one more financial splash before hanging 'em up.

The Orioles are in good shape for 2025.

They need a starting pitcher or two, and don't forget Kyle Bradish is set to return sometime after June 1st.

They could always use a "real" right fielder, but if it turns out they go with someone like Grichuk or Kepler (or both), it wouldn't be the end of the world.

I wouldn't be opposed to seeing Pete Alonso in Baltimore.

Max Fried is my personal pick for a free agent pitcher.

If we got those two, I'd be thrilled.

But I'll trust Mike Elias to piece it together the best way he sees fit.

One thing I'm not counting on is some kind of huge financial splash where the Orioles pony up $400 million for Soto or $300 million for Burnes. That's just not his, or the organization's, style.

Tuesday November 5, 2024

#DMD

Issue #3726

today, november 5, is the day

Today is the big day.

All I can say is this: I hope we get the right guy.

We've been talking about it for a while now: "What are we going to do on November 5?"

I guess some of it depends on what happens in places like North Carolina and New York. There's even a chance California and Nevada are going to matter this time around.

Whatever the case, I suspect some people in those places are going to be happy and some are going to be disappointed.

I know, selfishly, I just hope we pick the right guy.

Like, prying Maxx Crosby away from the Las Vegas would be ideal. He'd be target #1 if I'm Eric DeCosta.

The Ravens might have to settle for someone like Jadeveon Clowney from Charlotte to fill their pass rushing needs. If so, that's fine. But I'd like to do better.

Clowney instead of Crosby would be akin to going down to Pinehurst for golf and having the pro shop tell you #2 is closed for maintenance but you can still play #7. #7 is excellent. But #2 is the mecca.

Editor's note: If you do get down to Pinehurst to play golf, please do play #7. It's the second best course in their rotation at the resort (although, admittedly, I haven't played the new, ultra-private #10).

There are other pass rush options available to the Ravens today and perhaps DeCosta winds up snagging one of them instead of Crosby or Clowney. If so, that works as well.

But the Ravens need to get someone today and he needs to be the right choice.

Like that other "thing" going on in our country today, talk is cheap. Eventually, someone is going to get elected to run this place and then we'll see if he or she are full of hot air with all of their campaign promises or if they really can do the things they say they can.

The same goes for the Ravens and their quest to get to the Super Bowl. Talk is cheap. You're 6-3 and clearly on a collision course to play Kansas City for the AFC title in January. Are you going to put your best foot forward today, in the waning hours of the trade deadline, or are you going to say, "We're good enough right now, thank you very much."?

You would hope the Ravens learned something from the Orioles this past July.

Given a chance to take their team from modest contender to big time contender, the Orioles flopped at the deadline.

Let's hope DeCosta doesn't face the same fate after today.

Go get a couple of defensive pieces and let's sew up this trip to the Super Bowl.

Please.....let's get at least one thing right on November 5.

The Orioles made some news on Monday by keeping a few veteran pieces for 2025 and declining the option on a reliable relief pitcher.

Seranthony Dominguez, Cionel Perez and Ryan O'Hearn all had their options picked up for next season. No great surprise on any of the three. They're (relatively) cheap and moderately productive. Perez might have been the one thought to be the most expendable given his hot-and-cold performance, but at $2.2M next season, he's a baseball bargain.

Perez is like an Oakmont CC Peter Millar shirt you find at a thrift shop for $10. It looks fine. Almost brand new, in fact. It's your size. At some point it cost someone $125 in the pro shop at Oakmont. You can buy it for $10. It's not brand new, but it will do the job.

That's Cionel Perez. He's a $125 shirt you can get for $10.

Seranthony Dominguez showed some good signs after coming over from Philadelphia at the trade deadline, but he's no Mariano Rivera. That said, he comes in at $8 million. "Cheap" by Major League standards.

O'Hearn is a reasonably competent Major League player. He can hit both right handed and left handed pitching and has some occasional pop in his bat. He's no Pete Alonso, but he also costs about $20 million less than Alonso, don't forget.

The odd guy out was the most surprising of them all. Danny Coulombe is now a free agent after the O's declined his $4 million option for 2025. When healthy, Coulombe was outstanding.

Those two words, "when healthy", were apparently what scared Mike Elias off.

"He's 35 and he's dinged up," an O's associate told me on Monday when I asked about the decision on Coulombe. "In fairness to the player, Mike (Elias) isn't going to broadcast that. But there's some concern about his arm moving forward."

The O's also haven't written Coulombe out of their 2025 picture entirely.

"He's probably going to get a deal with someone," the associate tells #DMD. "But if he doesn't get anything there will always be a low risk opportunity with us next spring in Sarasota."

The O's also made qualifying offers to Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander, both for just over $20 million annually.

Neither of those will be accepted, of course, and both Burnes and Santander will hit the free agent market later this month.

Burnes will wind up in California at (at least) $40 million annually, either with the Dodgers (70%) or the Giants (30%).

Santander might -- look away if this bothers you -- be the next right fielder for the Yankees if they fail to keep Juan Soto. Failing that, Santander finishes in San Francisco at $27.5 million a year for 4 years.

It's good work if you can get it, folks.

Last but not least, please remember to get out and vote today at your nearest polling place.

There's no need to take your ID with you, as we somehow don't require you to prove who you are in this state.

But please get out and vote for your candidate of choice, both in the Presidential race and in the local races of importance.

Monday November 4, 2024

#DMD

Issue #3725

another pretender exposed

Sure, the Broncos pressed the Ravens early-on yesterday and it coulda, shoulda, woulda been a lot closer if not for a couple of failed 4th down conversions.

But you know the joke about "if" and my Aunt Betty, right?

Of course you do.

The Broncos came to town with a 5-3 record and the opportunity prove they might be a legit quasi-contender in the AFC.

They hopped on the plane back to Denver early Sunday evening with a 5-4 record and the knowledge they're far from being a prime time player.

I know it's a week-to-week league and anything can happen on any given Sunday, but if Baltimore and Denver played 5 times, the Ravens win all 5. And if they happen to only win 4 of the 5, it would be because the Ravens defense has one of their filed-for-patent 4th quarter collapses that always lurking in the back of our minds.

The Ravens are much better than the Broncos, as the 41-10 thumping in Baltimore showed yesterday.

Denver, in fact, should enjoy being above .500 while they can.

After next week's loss in Kansas City, they'll be 5-5. They then have the Falcons at home, which is definitely a toss-up. The Broncos will need to get to 10 wins to make the post-season, you would think. They do have the Raiders, Browns and Bengals left on their slate which might get them to 8 wins, but they'll need to beat some real teams, too.

I might be wrong, but I don't see Denver beating anyone of substance.

But enough about the visitors and the Cleat of Reality they encountered on Sunday.

The Ravens are rolling.

They'll clobber the Bengals this Thursday night, of course, to get to 7-3, and then it's on to Pittsburgh for the November 17 showdown with the Steelers, who will have their hands full next Sunday vs. Washington.

Sunday's throttling of the Broncos didn't come without a couple of asterisks, though.

The Ravens defense still doesn't have its chakras in line.

There's very little pass rush to speak of.

Baltimore's run defense wasn't great, allowing 122 yards on the ground.

Denver was 6-of-14 on third down.

And even though Bo Nix looked like a rookie on a few occasions, he also did a nice job under the duress of a big-time mid-season game on the road. Whether Nix someday leads Sean Payton's team to the promised land is obviously not known, but he doesn't look like a scrub, either.

All of that points to tomorrow's NFL trade deadline and the question continues to loom: Will Eric DeCosta make a deal or two that helps bolster Baltimore's occasionally soft defense?

It would sure help if he acquired a pass rusher, for starters.

What the Ravens have now in that category isn't good enough.

But back to Sunday for a second: the Broncos were what we thought they were.

And the Ravens are what we think they are.

They are so explosive on offense that any defensive warts are all but forgotten.

Yes, they're still in need of tightening up on the defensive side of the ball. They need one or two guys on the edge to chase the quarterback and they still need some secondary help.

But on a great day the Ravens can tack on 40 or more points against you.

On a good day, they're hitting 30 or more almost every time.

And if somehow the Ravens offense sputters, they're still going to put up somewhere in the 24-point range against you.

That 17-10 playoff to the Chiefs last year?

There's just no way that can happen this January. I'm not saying the Chiefs can't beat the Ravens. We know they can.

But they're not holding the Ravens to 10 points. Or even 17 points.

Baltimore is going to put points up, in any game, home or away, against any opponent. You'll have to outscore Lamar Jackson to beat the Ravens.

I'm not sure if you've checked airfare to New Orleans for that first full week of February, but you might want to start looking into it.

Hotels down there are going to be expensive. Just be prepared.

Game tickets will be through the roof, especially if the Lions get in for the first time ever.

Start saving your money.

There's still football to be played, obviously, and one wrong step, one knee injury and one "bad" MRI, and everything changes.

But all things being equal and the Ravens staying relatively healthy gives them a simple, easy path to the AFC title game.

From there, it's just exorcising those demons against the Chiefs and then it's on to New Orleans.

You remember New Orleans, don't you? The last time the Ravens won a Super Bowl, that's where the game was played.

A tip from the top: Make your travel plans early to get the best deals.

Even though the Caps lost yesterday in Carolina, 4-2,, Alex Ovechkin notched his 7th goal of the season to hit the 860 mark for his storied career.

The chase, now, is officially on.

Starting tomorrow, we'll be following along here with our "Ovi Goal Chase" box on the right side of #DMD.

Wayne Gretzky's career record of 894 goals is going to be eclipsed by Ovi, barring something really bizarre happening.

The only question is.....when?

He's now 34 goals shy of tying the mark and 35 away from breaking it.

Based off of last year's pedestrian performance and 31 goal output, it seemed almost a certainty he would need all of this season and a month of the '25-26 campaign to surpass Gretzky.

Now?

There's at least a chance he can reach 895 this season, albeit in late March or early April.

Some folks in the hockey world are starting to put their tickets for those games on the secondary market and prices are booming. Six of the team's last 9 games in '24-25 are on the road, too, so even the schedule makers assumed Ovi wouldn't hit the mark this season.

Washington's final home game of the year is on Sunday, April 13 vs. Columbus. You'll have to make a choice that day, perhaps. Stay home and watch Tiger Woods tie Jack's mark with his 6th career Masters win or head to D.C. to see Ovi score career goal #895 and break hockey's most illustrious individual record.

It's a good choice to have.

Sunday November 3, 2024

#DMD

Issue #3724

broncos looking to nix the ravens

This one, today, could be interesting.

After last week's fiasco in Cleveland, I'm starting to give up on trying to figure out these Ravens.

I mean, they lost to Jameis Winston, for crying out loud.

But what should be a 34-17 win for Baltimore could turn into one of those 23-20 nailbiters because the Ravens do what they always do, which is to say, they turn the ball over at the worst time, pull on the quarterback's facemask in 4th quarter, miss a 48 yard field goal and, well, you get the picture.

I can't believe I'm going back to this well again, but I am. "You can't play scared", I tell my Calvert Hall golfers all the time. And you can't be scared to say this, either: Some dude named Bo Nix isn't coming to Baltimore as a rookie quarterback and beating the Ravens, particularly a week after the Ravens lost to the Browns, of all teams.

Yeah, there it is: Bo Nix isn't beating the Ravens today. I don't care what you say. He's not.

That said, this hard-to-figure-out Ravens team can simply not afford to lose this one, especially with the Bengals coming to town next Thursday night with their season pretty much on the line.

There's also that pesky trip to Pittsburgh in two weeks time that would look a little different if the Ravens lose today and then beat the Bengals to head to the Steel City at 6-4.

Every game is important, obviously. But these "cakewalk" games at home, you know, where you're basically a touchdown favorite over a club that is definitely more of a paper tiger than a roaring lion, are super important.

The Ravens lost one of those games earlier this year when the Raiders somehow won in Baltimore. It's one thing to lose at home to a team like Buffalo or even the Eagles later on this season. It's another thing, entirely, to lose to Las Vegas or these Broncos today. You just can't drop those kind of games.

Alas, the Ravens aren't losing today.

I realize Sean Payton is a terrific coach and Denver, at 5-3, is already well ahead of what most people thought they'd do in 2024.

But let's be honest about this: They're 5-3 because they've pretty much defeated the dregs of the league along the way. I know, I know. "You play who they put in front of you." I get it.

But Denver's five wins are against: Tampa Bay, NY Jets, Las Vegas, New Orleans and Carolina.

When they've played a decent team this year, they've lost: Pittsburgh, LA Chargers, Seattle.

Their five wins have come against the league's JV.

They're going from winning six furlong races and thinking they're the next coming of American Pharoah to lining up against Secretariat today in a mile-and-a-quarter race.

The Broncos are not beating the Ravens today. Bo Nix isn't coming to Baltimore and getting the better of Lamar Jackson. You can make book on that.

It might be closer than we all think it should be because that's how "our" Ravens do it, but a win is a win is a win.

I'm going the other way, though. This one, today, will expose the Broncos for what they are. An improving team who can beat some of the low-lifes in the league but can't hang with the big dogs.

Lamar throws for 229 yards and runs for 68 more. He scores a touchdown on the ground and throws for two more, one to newcomer Diontae Johnson and the other to Mark Andrews.

Derrick Henry has 43 yards at the half, then piles up another 66 in the second half to finish with 106 yards of rushing on the day.

It's 20-7 Ravens at the half.

Denver makes it 23-17 heading into the fourth quarter.

Lamar engineers a nice drive to start the final 15 minutes and the Ravens go up 30-17.

A late Denver turnover in their own territory provides for a Justin Tucker field goal inside of two minutes and the Ravens win, 33-17, to improve to 6-3 on the year.

"On to Cincinnati" we go.

	WILL JACKSON and his weekly NFL picks
Will Jackson will be here every Sunday during the NFL season with his thoughts on games and prop bets that will hopefully yield positive results for you.

I'm hoping last week's improved record is a good sign of things to come. I'm at almost 62% on my prop bets but I'm at 43% on my game picks for the year. I want to turn that around for everyone today.

Game picks

Falcons -3.5 over the Cowboys

Bills -6.5 over the Dolphins

NY Giants +4 over Washington

Bronwns/Chargers over 42.5 points

Bills/Dolphins under 49.5 points

Carolina +7 over New Orleans

Seattle +2 over LA Rams

Indianapolis +5.5 over Minnesota

Prop bets

Josh Allen over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Justin Herbert over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Lamar Jackson over 1.5 passing touchdowns

Derrick Henry anytime touchdown

Marvin Harrison Jr. anytime touchdown

Jared Goff over 203.5 yards passing

Kyler Murray over 203.5 yards passing

David Njoku anytime touchdown

Amari Cooper anytime touchdown

SCOREBOARD
Sunday, November 3
AT HURRICANES 4	CAPITALS 2
CAPS GOALS: Ovechkin (7), Duhaime (2) GOALTENDER: Lindgren RECORD: 8-3-0 NEXT GAME: November 6 vs. Nashville

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