Wednesday September 9, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4404

the fat woman man is ready to start singing

Get the microphone out and check the speakers.

Loud enough?

Is the sound quality good?

The fat man is about to sing.

I know what you're thinking.

Isn't the phrase "It ain't over till the fat lady sings"? Why, yes, it used to be. But we're cleaning things up in this country. Gulf of America. Lake America. You know what I mean. We're trying our best not to denegrate anyone and, at the same time, make things a little more balanced.

I mean, heck, two weeks ago, a bunch of people in the golf industry lost their jobs over a commercial of a guy shoving a woman to the ground, even though he actually didn't shove her to the ground at all. It just "looked" like he did. But even the mere thought of a man decking a woman, albeit in a playful, "made for TV" manner wasn't tolerated.

So, we've taken the liberty of changing one of our oldest sports phrases.

It's now: "It's not over till the fat man sings."

Editor's note: That reminds me, "Fat Man In The Bathtub" is the first song on the awesome Little Feat live album, "Waiting for Columbus", which I still think is one of the all-time top 3 "live albums" ever released. The other two would be Jackson Browne, Running on Empty, and Kiss, Alive!.

Anyway.........

The fat man is in the building and he's having a quick bite to eat before he takes the stage. He's just about ready to sing.

He's just about ready to sing because the O's got thumped by Cleveland last night, 9-5. That gives the Birds 76 losses on the season. If 84-78 is the magic number to clinch the 3rd and final A.L. wild card spot, the Orioles have exactly two losses left in their campaign.

The Orioles are now 70-76 after last night's defeat. Flyers fans, you don't need to rush for a calculator. We can do the math here, quickly, by hand. The O's need to go 14-2 over their final 16 games to finish 84-78.

The fat man is just about ready to take the microphone and start singing.

Someone asked me on Sunday at Eagle's Nest this question: "What was the biggest thing that went wrong with the Orioles this season?"

I immediately said, "They can't hit."

And after some small talk, we went on our respective ways.

Last night I made it a point to look at the team statistics through 146 games.

It's actually depressing.

No one on the team has hit the ball worth a hoot except for Pete Alonso, Blaze Alexander and Christian Encarnacion-Strand.

Everyone else has stunk it up.

In fairness, I guess it's worth pointing out for balance sake that Adley Rutschman was having a decent year before he got shipped off to Boston and Taylor Ward was getting on base at a nice rate even if his power numbers were mysteriously down.

But the rest of the team?

Coby Mayo has 22 home runs but he's hitting .223 and his on-base-percentage is .288. That's not impossible or even all that rare, obviously. Others have hit a lot of homers and boasted a batting average of .220 or so. But it's indicative of a "feast or famine" type of player. It's either out of the park or he's back in the dugout taking off his helmet.

I'm not picking on Mayo. He's the least of their offensive problems. Gunnar has not been any good. Neither has Holliday. Basallo shows occasional promise and power, but he's a long way from being Johnny Bench.

Cowser: nothing much there.

Beavers: appears overmatched most of the time.

Taveras: nice guy to have on the end of the bench but he's very much sub-par.

Alonso is the only guy on the roster who had a bang-up, "earn your salary" kind of season from start to finish. Encarnacion-Strand was a mid-season pick-up, remember. He's been decent enough. But let's not think he's Mike Schmidt 2.0, either.

Gunnar and Holliday are definitely the two biggest concerns. They're the cornerstone pieces now that Rutschman is trying to win a title in Boston.

Basallo might be one of those pieces at some point in a year or two, but right now it's Gunnar and Holliday they're building the team around. And, well, neither of those guys can hit. Or, at the very least, they didn't hit this season.

Henderson's power numbers are OK. He'll finish the season with 25+ homers. But he's come up empty in more big moments than Governor Moore trying to rebuild the Key Bridge. Gunnar's defense, while not as critical as his offense, hasn't been Brooks-Robinson-like either. And his base running? Jose Feliciano called and asked about it.

Holliday you might be able to explain as "still learning the pitchers" and such. He also battled an early-season injury that might have lingered after he returned. If you're going to be concerned about one of the two "big boys" not producing and earning his keep, you're complaining about Gunnar far more than Jackson. But, still, Holliday was a #1 pick and he should be sprouting more than he has thus far in his career.

But those two aren't the only ones scuffling for six months.

Did everyone's chakras just fall out of line around the same time or is there something deeper going on with the way these guys are taught how to hit by O's coaches and instructors? I don't know the answer to that. But something is "off" for sure.

It's kind of amazing when you look at the stats and see how woeful the O's have been offensively in 2026.

I definitely expected more from a lot of varsity lettermen.

The NFL season officially kicks off tonight in Seattle where we'll see a rematch of the Super Bowl blowout when the Seahawks take on the Patriots.

Yeah, I know. You looked at your phone, too, to see if they're playing on a Wednesday night to start the season. Yep, they are.

This one's on NBC tonight. A "freebie", so to speak.

Tomorrow's game from Australia that starts at 8:35 pm EDT pits the Rams vs. the 49'ers. For that one, you need to have Netflix. Welcome to the new world. Better start saving up for down the road when the Ravens games are ALL on some obscure subscription-based channel and you have to pay to watch the team home or or away.

We'll have our full NFL preview here tomorrow. Randy Morgan will start diving into all things NFL and Ravens here with a 3-part series on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. If you love tolerate my work, you will love what Randy does.

As for tonight's game in the Pacific Northwest, we turn to our newest friend here at #DMD, Teddy Knowsball, and he'll take us through the Seattle/New England opener and, he says, will be around all year to entertain us with his weekly picks.

"Teddy Knowsball" is not his real name, of course. In fact, he's one of you, a regular reader and occasional participant in the Comments section. But he's keeping that a secret for now until he decides to tell you more.

He probably doesn't want you throwing eggs at his house once he starts the season 1-9.

I'm kidding...

Anyway, here are Teddy's thoughts on tonight's season opener.

Teddy's Plays --

Game wager: Take the Seahawks minus 3 in an easy win over the Pats (-115).

Points total: The number is 44.5. I like the over to hit. (-105)

Best prop bet: Smith-Njigba minus 6.5 receptions (-130)

Tuesday September 8, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4403

tuesday q and a

I was almost hoping for a 3-2 Guardians win yesterday in the series opener in Baltimore.

And then a 5-1 win for Cleveland tonight.

That would have sealed the deal. Like, really sealed the deal.

Instead, the Birds won on Monday, 6-4, and somehow, even if it might only be a few more breaths, they're still among the living.

Watch them sweep Cleveland and pull themselves back to the outer edges of the wild card race with two weeks remaining in the season.

That would be, very much, "the Oriole way" in 2026.

For those of you who think know this is over, I'm feeling you. I think you're probably right. But I'm not signing the death certificate until the coroner comes along and makes it official.

I'll be the last one out of the room and, yes, I'll get the lights.

We have a bunch of questions that have piled up in the mailbag inbox. I picked out a nice handful of good ones for you today. As always, if you have something you'd like me to answer here, go ahead and throw in the Comments section below and I'll (hopefully) get to it.

Jack asks -- "Any thoughts on the clownshoes ump who made himself "the story" by making a stink about how some rookie was wearing his hat?"

DF says -- "It was a crazy story for sure. That umpire has a history of doing some goofy stuff, like once throwing J.T. Realmuto out of a spring training game because the ump went to put a ball into the catcher's mitt and Realmuto didn't realize it was happening and pulled his glove away and the ump basically threw the ball into the ground. And he tossed him for that. In a March game, no less!

Anyway, I don't see anything wrong at all with the umpire (any umpire) making a slight gesture (like Doug Eddings did) to a player to wear his hat the right way. That, of course, initiated the controversy on Friday night. Eddings later made reference to those asinine "unwritten rules" when discussing the situation. Then again, I don't know that anything in the rules says the player can't then say to the umpire, "No, I'm good. I'm wearing it this way."

But then the Cardinals manager got involved and said some things he shouldn't have said and Eddings threw him out. To make it worse, Eddings also gave the St. Louis pitcher a "pitch clock violation". And then he missed (on purpose?) a relatively easy call at home plate a minute or so later.

It was a mess. These umpires are out of their minds. I've been saying that forever. They all have rabbit ears. They take exception to the goofiest stuff. Eddings, in fact, got mad at Paul Skenes earlier this year because he thought he threw strike three and started to walk off the mound and Eddings called it a ball and then admonished both Skenes and the Pittsburgh manager. These umps are out of control.

That said -- I think "looking professional" is important in baseball. It's important in sports, period. To wit, I'm a believer that golfers should wear their shirts tucked in and their hats forward at all times. That's just me. I never remember Nicklaus, Palmer or Watson walking around wearing their shirts out or sporting a backwards hat while they were playing. Old habits die hard, I guess.

So, while I'm in favor of baseball players wearing their hats with the bill facing forward, it's apparently one of those silly unwritten rules that most players follow and few of them don't. Whatever...

But, yes, in general, that was another "clownshoes" moment for the umpiring society. However, as is always the case in our great country, the reaction to the whole thing was a massive OVER-reaction. Way out of proportion."

R.C. asks -- "I know you're a big Tiger Woods fan so I thought I'd throw this question at you and test your loyalties. There's a post-round beer at Pine Ridge waiting on your answer by the way. Think it through. You're able to make one of two things happen in 2027. The Ravens make it to the AFC Championship Game (with no guarantee of winning and going to the Super Bowl) or Tiger comes back and wins his 83rd career tournament by winning the Masters in April. Which one do you make happen?"

DF says -- "I can't even believe you're asking me this. Tiger winning career tournament title #83 would set the all-time record for professional golf. It would be HISTORICAL. The Ravens getting to the AFC title game would be awesome, for sure. But there's not much to deliberate about this one. It's Tiger winning #83 at Augusta, which would be twice as special as it would also give him 16 career major wins. Sorry, Ravens."

Rico asks -- "Hey Drew, I'm in my first year helping a local JV high school soccer team and the head coach is taking a medical leave of absence for three weeks due to emergency surgery and he has left me in charge. What's your best piece of coaching wisdom to help me get through the three weeks? Help please!"

DF says -- "It might help if I knew the sport, but in the end I guess that doesn't really matter. Just stay positive with them. Win or lose (or tie, if you're in soccer), just keep telling them you believe in them. Work with them to make sure they know you're "with" them and not "against" them. Give them all the credit when your team wins and take all the blame when you lose. That will serve you well.

One of the craziest, most outlandish things a coach in any sport can EVER hear is when a player (or their parent) says, "The coach doesn't like me."

My response to that would always be the same: "If I didn't like you, you wouldn't be on the team."

So, just stay positive with all of them and make sure they know you're on their side. Good luck with it all."

P.R. asks -- "Hi Drew, I don't know if you saw the Orioles released an e-mail today (Monday, September 7) where they promised people who bought tickets to the Splash section a free ticket to a future game this season or next season. I'm just wondering if you think that's fair or should they have to give everyone a refund?"

DF says -- "That's a slippery slope. And I'm not really prone to defending the Orioles in this mess they created. But the people who bought tickets to the game did, I assume, stick around and watch the game, even without Zay Flowers down there squirting them with a hose.

They bought tickets to a baseball game. They got to watch a baseball game. In that way, the Orioles delivered on their obligation.

Now...the whole fiasco surrounding Flowers and his appearance? That was not a good look by the O's, particularly when they basically admitted yesterday they knew Flowers wasn't appearing and basically "forgot" to tell ticket holders that news.

Should people actually receive a cash refund for that whole thing? I just don't know about that. I think a free ticket to a future game is fair compensation. I mean, it's not like the Orioles advertised a Billy Joel concert after the game and a Billy Joel cover band showed up instead and the O's said, "Oh, we forgot to tell you it wasn't the real Billy Joel."

It was an appearance by a Ravens player at a baseball game. Yes, it was terribly handled by the Orioles. But giving people their money back seems a little overboard to me."

Jason C. asks -- "DF, any help for a frustrated 10 handicap golfer who can't make a 6 to 8 foot putt to save his life? I get about 6 or 8 of them around (no pun intended) and I might make one of them. I could be shooting 76 but instead I wind up shooting 82-84 every round. Thanks and Go Hall!"

DF says -- "Like any golf tip or lesson, it's really hard to give any kind of accurate advice without actually seeing you putt. Are you missing most of them high of the hole? Low of the hole? Leaving them short? Hitting them too hard? Are you reading too much break, not enough break, etc.?

But I'll give you something that could help you, no matter what you're doing. It's going to sound crazy, but I give this tip to my players all the time and I've used it for 20 or 25 years when I go through a putting "rut" where nothing seems to be going in.

Stop trying to make the putt. And start focusing on "hitting a good putt". My advice to playing partners or players on my team is almost always the same. "Keep your head down and make good contact with it."

Too many people get results oriented with putting. "I have to make this putt."

Actually, what you have to do is "hit the ball solid, in the middle of the putter face". It might go in, it might not go in. But it's almost NEVER going in if you don't hit the ball in the middle of the putter face.

One way to practice that is to dip your putter in baby powder (just empty some into a bowl of some kind) and then hit the putt and see where the ball made impact with the putter. You'll get immediate feedback.

Stop trying to "make" them all. And start trying to hit a good putt. See if that helps."

Jeff Barber asks -- "What do you see on the horizon for John Harbaugh in New York? Does he make it 5 years there? Do the Giants ever win a playoff game with Harbaugh as the HC? Does he need something good to happen in NY/NJ in order to make the Hall of Fame or is he going to make it off of his work in Baltimore?"

DF says -- "I don't follow the NFC very closely, so some of this is guesswork. I think it's a quarterback's league, for starters. And I don't think the Giants have a high quality quarterback. That Dart kid is OK. Nothing more than that.

Now, it's fair to remember that Harbaugh inherited a "Division Two" quarterback in Baltimore by the name of Joe Flacco and he did pretty well under Harbaugh. But Flacco had some other pieces on offense and a solid defense to back him up.

Anyway, John's first issue in New York is he doesn't have an elite QB. Can he still win games? Sure. But I don't see the Giants ever running off a 12-5 or 13-4 record with Jaxson Dart at the helm.

Will the Giants win a playoff game under Harbaugh? Probably, yes. If they somehow win the NFC East, which isn't all that improbable, they'll get a home game out of that. And they could win a home playoff game over some wild card team that comes in at 10-7 or 9-8.

5 years? Will Harbaugh make it 5 years in New York? I'd bet "yes". I think he'll be supremely challenged to go .500 up there, but five years isn't that big of a window for a Hall of Fame coach.

And there's your answer about the Hall of Fame. Harbaugh's going to the Hall of Fame someday no matter what he does in New York. That's a done deal."

D.J. asks -- "Hey DF, music question for your website. You might need a day to think this one through all the way. What are the best three albums in succession by any band or artist?"

DF says -- "Hmmm, this is one of those that requires some thought. I'm just going to throw a bunch of them out there and then maybe I can put them in order. Or not.

Van Halen, Van Halen II and Women And Children First were three really good albums in succession.

The Cars, Candy-O and Panorama were also awesome.

August and Everything After, Recovering the Satellites and This Desert Life (Counting Crows). Those three in a row were amazing.

How about the first three Beastie Boys albums? Licensed To Ill, Paul's Boutique and Check Your Head. Wow, wow and wow!!

Now that I think of the Beasties, their next two albums were also amazing: Ill Communication and Hello Nasty. Those five in a row might not be topped.

Springsteen had three GREAT albums in a row but they weren't his first three. Born To Run, Darkness On The Edge of Town and The River.

Elton John had FOUR amazing albums in a row. Take your pick of which three were the best of the four, but all four were out-of-this-world good. Madman Across The Water, Honky Chateau, Don't Shoot Me I'm Only The Piano Player and Goodbye Yellow Brick Road.

I'm missing a bunch, I'm sure. I'm sure Zeppelin had three great albums in succession. Moving Pictures, Signals and Grace Under Pressure were three amazing RUSH albums in succession.

Steely Dan put out three AMAZING albums in a row; The Royal Scam, Aja and Gaucho. I can't believe I forgot about them.

This was a cool exercise.

If you forced me to put the Top 5 in order, I'd go Springsteen, Elton John, Steely Dan, Counting Crows and the Beasties."

Below is a great song -- my favorite, in fact -- from The Counting Crows' 3rd album, This Desert Life. This album was recorded during a time when Adam Duritz was still trying and still interested, both vocally and from a writing standpoint. It's an incredibly underrated album.

Monday September 7, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4402

outclassed

Talk about rolling over and settling into the fetal position.

The Orioles returned home last Thursday with their life on the line. Sunday evening, the Red Sox were headed home with a four game sweep in their luggage and the Birds are, now, officially on life support with 18 games remaining in the regular season.

And the four losses, other than a brief, late rally on Thursday in the 9th inning, all pretty much had the same look as far as the Orioles were concerned. No life. No enthusiasm. Nothing, really. They scored 1 run in the final 27 innings of the series vs. Boston.

One run. In 27 innings.

And, so, the Guardians come to town for a 3-game series that, this time last week, looked like it might be "pivotal" for the O's in their pursuit of a wild card playoff spot.

The series actually is still pivotal, only it's the Guardians who are the ones pressing on the gas to keep their grasp on that post-season berth.

It's not really pivotal for the O's. They wasted that opportunity with the four losses to Boston over the long weekend.

In the midst of that 4-game sweep at the hands of the Red Sox, the Birds had an off-field controversy that was completely unavoidable.

Zay Flowers was supposed to be the "guest splasher" on Saturday night at Camden Yards. To celebrate his appearance, the Birds gave away baseball jerseys in Ravens colors with Flowers "4" on the back.

Flowers showed up. He threw out the first pitch. But he didn't do any splashing. In fact, he never even made it out to the splash zone.

Editor's note: In a weird twist of irony, Flowers, had he gone out to the splash zone, wouldn't have been very active out there. The Orioles didn't score any runs.

So what happened on Saturday night?

The official Orioles explanation was a "miscommunication".

“We had planned to have Zay as a guest splasher but plans changed for the evening," the Orioles said. "While we had included the appearance with the original announcement, we did not continue to promote. We will work with any fans who reach out for a satisfactory solution.”

What really happened was a business dilemma. Flowers has a personal services sponsorship deal with M&T Bank. The Orioles "Splash Zone" is sponsored by Tower Federal Credit Union. You can figure out what happened from there.

The Orioles started promoting Zay's appearance in the splash zone back in June and the M&T folks said, "Whoa, hold on a second" and that was the end of the appearance in the splash zone. I guess the fancy term is "conflict of interest", but it was nothing more than a sponsor saying to their client, "We'd rather you not do that."

I'm not sure why the Orioles didn't immediately start conveying that to fans, but anyway...

People apparently bought tickets in the splash zone in hopes of enjoying the game along with the talented Ravens wide receiver and were dismayed to learn he wouldn't be there after all.

In case you don't know, ticket prices for that particular section are increased to roughly $70 when then there's a promotion and a "guest splasher" involved. So anyone who was intrigued enough by the scheduled Flowers appearance forked over $70-plus and didn't get to interact with him.

I know what you're thinking and it's the same thought I have: "Why on earth would someone pay extra money to sit there and get squirted with a water hose by a Ravens player?" Well, some people buy Beatles albums still and there's really no point to doing that, either.

In other words: To each his own.

The O's have pledged to make it right to disgruntled fans with a "satisfactory solution" which, I assume, will be tickets of equal value to a 2027 home game.

Whatever it was and however it happened, the Orioles stubbed their toe on this one.

Oh, and Luis Robert Jr. is hurt and on the injured list. He made it all of, what, five games before he gave up?

We'll be slowly starting to turn our full attention to the Ravens and football here as the week progresses. Barring some sort of miracle from the O's -- which would include collapses from Cleveland, Toronto and Texas -- Jesse Minter's team will have our full attention starting with next Sunday's opener in Indianapolis.

It probably doesn't need to be repeated but.....what the heck. Lamar Jackson's career calendar is into the fall months at this point. Maybe he's "only" in September, but he's no spring chicken, at least football wise, anyway.

I bring all of that up to say that the chances for Lamar to lead the Ravens to the Super Bowl are starting to dwindle with each passing year.

The time is now.

And there's more pressure than ever on Lamar now because Steve Bisciotti decided last January that it was John Harbaugh, not Lamar Jackson, who needed to be changed within the Ravens organization.

If Bisciotti was right, we're all going to rejoice. If he was wrong, the Ravens will have wasted one of the game's greatest talents of the last 50 years.

There's never an opening day game that deserves to be classified as "must win", so we're going to stop far, far short of making that claim about Sunday's opener vs. the Colts.

But it would be a nice start for the Jesse Minter era if he and his new coaching staff can engineer an opening game win. The less pressure the Ravens fans in 2026, the better. A nice start with a couple of wins before the trip to Brazil, would be just what the doctor ordered.

Throughout this week, we'll have extensive Ravens and NFL coverage from our friend Randy Morgan.

The ending to the Michigan-Western Michigan game on Saturday dominated much of Sunday's internet chatter and rightfully so. It appeared as if Western Michigan had pulled off a major upset of the Wolverines in Ann Arbor, only to have instant replay overturn what was thought to be a game-ending incomplete Hail Mary pass.

Because Murphy's Law and all, Western Michigan wound up losing after Michigan used their second chance to complete the ensuing last ditch Hail Mary and connect on the game-winning touchdown in a 13-12 victory.

I'm not sure it was an "instant classic", but it was definitely something.

The good news? Everyone involved said all of the right things on Sunday, including coaches and administrators from Western Michigan.

Western Michigan watched the replay. They heard the explanation. In the end, as tough as it was to swallow, the refs actually got the call right on the field (after review) and then the visitors somehow gave up a miracle throw-and-catch that is every defensive coach's nightmare.

So the good news, if you can say that, is that fair play won out. The right call was made in the end.

The bad news? It's getting harder and harder these days to watch what unfolds on a college football field (and an NFL field, for that matter) and then watch the sports gambling ads that are aired in the next commercial break and not wonder, just a little, about gambling's role in the game(s).

Even with NIL money pumping into the bank accounts of players all over the country, there's still a small piece of us (all of us?) that wonders how much dirty money is floating around from campus to campus just to make sure someone doesn't win by 27.5 points or a certain favorite wins the game outright.

You'd be naive to not at least go "hmmmmmmmm" when you see games like Saturday in Ann Arbor unfold in front of you.

All of those gambling ads and you're not the least bit concerned?

I don't know, man.

Some of these games look weird. And we're in week number one of the season.

There was a big name NIL signing in college sports late last week and it was a familiar name. Well, it was a familiar last name, at least.

Charlie Woods signed an endorsement deal with TaylorMade, which means he'll be getting big bucks sent his way in exchange for using TaylorMade clubs and allowing the club manufacturer to market him as one of their cornerstone players.

Woods is a senior in high school in West Palm Beach. Next fall, he'll start his college golf career at Florida State University.

There's no formal disclosure of what Tiger's son might have received from TaylorMade, but industry speculation is it's somewhere in the neighborhood of $1 million.

That's actually not a lot of money when it comes to a multi-year club endorsement. But giving a high school senior $1 million for a few years of his name, image and likeness seems like a gamble. Even if his name is Charlie Woods.

Charlie is a nice player. He's clearly good enough to warrant a scholarship offer from Florida State and a dozen other top Division I college programs. But he's far from the best junior in the country. Truth of the matter, he's not even the best junior in the state of Florida. But he is a highly competent junior golfer.

Now, did TaylorMade favor him because of his last name? Of course. They probably weren't signing Charlie Figbottom to a multi-year NIL deal.

But Charlie Woods? Yes, that last name has a good ring to it.

How far do I think Woods will go in golf? I get asked that a lot during casual water-cooler discussions about him.

It's inevitable that he'll eventually turn professional. He'll start out trying to cut his teeth on the minor league circuit, whether that's the Canadian Tour or the next step up, the U.S. based Korn Ferry Tour.

While Charlie might get preferred junior treatment because of his last name, once he gets to the "pro level", he'll find none of those guys out there give a hoot whether his last name is Woods or Figbottom.

His college years will be important to the development of his golf. Florida State has an exceptional program. But there are dozens of college players on the cusp of turning professional and making an impact on the PGA Tour. Will Woods be a college standout or "just one of the guys"?

If you pressed me to make a call about his career, right now, on September 7, 2026, I'll say that Charlie Woods has a fairly non-descript professional career. It will probably look and feel a lot like Gary Nicklaus, Jack's son who had a brief flirtation on the PGA Tour two decades ago, or Sam Saunders, the grandson of the great Arnold Palmer who enjoyed a profitable, but largely unsuccessful, 15-year run on the PGA Tour.

My guess is Charlie Woods winds up looking like those two.

He'll make some money playing golf.

But I don't think he'll ever rise to the ranks of a Top 50 player on the PGA Tour. Probably not even a Top 100 player.

I'm not even sure it's a slam-dunk-guarantee that Charlie ever secures his PGA Tour "card" and plays full time out there. I think that's a 50/50 bet at best.

One interesting option for Woods might be to start his career on the European Tour, the same way Brooks Koepka did once upon a time. The courses are a tick easier, the fields are definitely not as top-heavy, and most weeks on the European Tour aren't just a putting contest.

And I could see the European Tour creating a mechanism for Woods to get his card. Because, you know, his last name isn't Figbottom.

	"Randy On The O's"
Randy Morgan takes #DMD readers through the recent week in Orioles baseball as the Birds try to return to the A.L. playoffs after missing the post-season in 2025.

orioles week in review

Week Record: 1-6

Season Record: 69-75

AL East Standing: 5th (16.5 GB of TB, 4 GB for 3rd WC)

Player of the Week: Christian Encarnacion-Strand - .286 AVG, 1 HR, 3 RBI, .842 OPS

Mercifully, the Orioles let their season die just in time for Baltimore to turn its attention to the Ravens week one matchup with Indianapolis.

For a brief moment, the Orioles seemed like they were right back in it.

Last Monday night’s win in Colorado brought the Birds back to .500 for the first time since April and within a half-game of the final American League Wild Card spot. After everything that has happened this season, somehow they had dragged themselves all the way back into legitimate contention.

They then lost the next six games.

The O’s dropped the final two games against one of the worst teams in baseball in Colorado, returned home and got swept four straight by Boston, and ended the week at 69-75.

They are now four games behind Cleveland for the final Wild Card with 18 games remaining.

It was not even primarily a pitching failure. The Orioles scored 15 runs in seven games, and five of them came in Thursday’s series opener against Boston. Over the final three games of the week they scored one run. Total.

The pitching staff repeatedly gave them chances to win. The offense simply did almost nothing with them.

Monday provided the lone happy memory. Cade Povich allowed one run over five innings at Coors Field, Samuel Basallo doubled home Dylan Beavers to tie the game in the fifth and Colton Cowser drove in the go-ahead run in the seventh.

The real highlight came with two outs in the ninth, when Cowser climbed the center-field wall and robbed Jake McCarthy of what would have been a walk-off two-run homer, helping Andrew Kittredge close out the 2-1 win, and putting the O’s at 69-69.

That apparently used up the week’s supply of good fortune. On Tuesday Kyle Bradish battled through five innings, allowing two runs despite some shaky command, and Jackson Holliday went deep as part of a three-hit game.

The Orioles nevertheless managed only two runs at Coors Field against a Rockies team that entered the night riding a franchise-record ten-game home losing streak. A Holliday error extended the seventh inning and rookie Luis De León surrendered a two-run homer to TJ Rumfield, making the Birds 4-2 losers.

Wednesday was more aggravating because Trevor Rogers was outstanding. Rogers struck out a career-high 11 over 6⅔ innings while walking nobody and allowing only two runs. The O’s built an early lead behind Pete Alonso and newly acquired Luis Robert Jr., then watched the bullpen give it away.

Even after the Birds scored twice in the top of the 11th, Colorado answered with three in the bottom half to win 6-5. A series that began with the Orioles finally reaching .500 ended with them losing two of three to the Rockies.

Things got worse when Adley Rutschman returned to Camden Yards Thursday wearing a Red Sox uniform.

Brandon Young gave the Orioles another perfectly respectable start, allowing three runs over 6⅔ innings while striking out seven. Luis Robert Jr. hit his first homer as an Oriole and Pete Alonso immediately followed with another to give the O’s a 3-1 lead.

But Adley homered twice in his return, and Boston eventually tied the game before Nick Sogard hit a two-run homer off Yennier Cano in the eighth. Roman Anthony added another homer in the ninth, which proved important when Christian Encarnacion-Strand hit a two-run shot in the bottom half. The comeback stopped there in a 6-5 loss.

Friday the offense disappeared as Shane Baz allowed a home run to the second batter of the game, then spent the rest of the night essentially shutting Boston down, finishing with 6⅓ innings of one-run ball while allowing only four hits and striking out six. He got no run support however, resulting in a 1-0 loss.

The O’s collected six singles, three of them from Blaze Alexander, and never scored. It was another entry in the increasingly long collection of Baz starts where he pitched well enough to win and received virtually nothing from the offense.

Saturday the pain continued. Chris Bassitt matched Sonny Gray through five scoreless innings before finally allowing three runs in the sixth. The Red Sox added two more against the bullpen, but it hardly mattered because the Orioles were shut out again.

They managed five hits and went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position in the 5-0 loss. Sunday offered one final opportunity to salvage something from the week. Encarnacion-Strand doubled home Coby Mayo in the first inning to give the Orioles an immediate 1-0 lead.

Kyle Bradish pitched well, giving up no earned runs. A Gunnar Henderson error extended the second inning before Eli White hit a three-run homer. Bradish lasted only four innings because he needed 85 pitches, but Anthony Nunez, Luis De León, Cam Sanders and Grant Wolfram combined to blank Boston the rest of the way.

Again, it did not matter. Red Sox rookie Payton Tolle struck out 12 over six innings, Aroldis Chapman recorded his 400th career save and Boston completed the four-game sweep with a 3- 1 win.

Player of the Week --

This was not exactly an award with fierce competition.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand went 6-for-21 with two doubles, a home run and three RBI, producing a .286/.318/.524 slash line and an .842 OPS.

His biggest swing came Thursday, when his two-run homer off Aroldis Chapman in the ninth gave the Orioles a last chance against Boston. He also drove in Baltimore’s only run Sunday with a first-inning double.

An .842 OPS is normally a nice week. This week it made Encarnacion-Strand look like Barry Bonds compared with most of his teammates.

Coby Mayo deserves the strongest offensive honorable mention after going 5-for-16 with a double and two walks, good for a .312 average and .389 on-base percentage. There was not much power, but simply reaching base consistently qualified as a major accomplishment this week.

The better honorable mentions are on the mound. Rogers, Baz and Bradish all gave the Orioles opportunities to win. Walker and Sanders combined for 5⅔ scoreless relief innings with ten strikeouts.

The pitching was not perfect.

It also was not why they went 1-6.

Down on the Farm --

The best news in the organization continues to come from Chesapeake.

Vance Honeycutt had a monster week, going 9-for-22 with three doubles, two home runs, five RBI and three stolen bases. He finished with a .409/.458/.818 slash line and 1.276 OPS. Honeycutt’s speed and defense have always provided a path to the majors.

If this kind of offensive production becomes even remotely consistent, his ceiling changes considerably.

Wehiwa Aloy supplied even more power, hitting three home runs and driving in five while stealing two bases. He only hit .238 for the week, but three homers in 22 plate appearances will play.

Anthony Eyanson delivered perhaps the most encouraging pitching performance, allowing one run over six innings while striking out eight without issuing a walk. The lack of walks is particularly notable considering command has been one of the areas to monitor since the trade.

So at least the O’s have that going for them after Adley crushed two homers and Red Sox fans celebrated a four-game mop in Camden Yards. Mike Elias is happy.

Patrick Reilly was excellent as well, working seven innings with four hits, one walk and eight strikeouts while allowing two runs. Caden Hunter struck out nine over five innings and JT Quinn threw five scoreless.

At Norfolk, Enrique Bradfield Jr. continued doing what he needs to do to build a major-league case. He hit .292 with a .393 OBP, two doubles, a triple and four stolen bases. The power is never going to be the selling point. Getting on base, creating havoc with his legs and playing high-level defense is the formula.

The pitching news at Norfolk was considerably less encouraging.

Cade Povich was tagged for eight runs in five innings, while Michael Forret allowed two runs in three innings with three walks. Félix Bautista continued his rehab work, allowing one run over 1⅔ innings with three walks and three strikeouts. At this point the results matter less than the health, but the command clearly still has some distance to go.

Question of the Week --

Is it over?

Yes.

Sunday September 6, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4401

sunday stuff

This, today, is our last Sunday without regular season or playoff NFL football until the end of January.

It all starts for the Ravens next Sunday in Indianapolis. Those week one games are tough to call, but that's one the Ravens should win. A healthy Lamar, a healthy team, really, and a new coaching staff, all looking to stamp their profiles with a season opening win in Indianapolis.

I don't see the Ravens losing many games in 2026 if they stay healthy in the right spots.

They'll lose a regular season game at home to someone they sorta-kinda shouldn't lose to because they always seem to do that.

And they'll give away a game on the road because just about every team in the league does that once or twice every season.

I think it all adds up to a 13-4 record for Baltimore and a cakewalk to the AFC North title.

The Jesse Minter era will start the same way the John Harbaugh era kicked off in 2008. With a trip to the AFC Championship Game.

I'll tell you more about what's in store for the Ravens in 2026 throughout the upcoming week.

Bruce has an entry in the Comments section below about the crowds at OPACY this weekend as the O's battle the Red Sox in a pivotal 4-game series.

In Thursday's opener, 19,720 showed up.

Friday saw 19,821 in the stadium.

Last night they were able to draw 32,000 and some change for the 5-0 loss to Boston.

In general, those are below-average crowds, numbers wise, and vastly below-average when you consider it's the penultimate home series of the season, against the Red Sox, with a potential playoff surge in the offing.

It's only one guy, but I have a friend who has been to all three games of the Red Sox series and he said last night's game had, by a large number, the most Boston fans of any of the three games thus far.

I have no idea why that might be, but it also might explain why the crowds were well under the expected range for a significant late-season series.

Bruce asked if I thought O's ownership is "concerned" about the team's attendance.

I assume they are. I don't know if they have a "magic number" in mind or some kind of budgeted revenue number they wanted to reach, but half-filled stadiums on premium, weekend games are definitely concerning.

People tend to poo-poo attendance and say, "TV money is what matters", but if you budgeted for 125,000 for this series and only sold 85,000 tickets, that's probably a loss of roughly $1.2 million in ticket revenue (40,000 tickets x average price of $33.00 each) plus another $50,000 in food and beverage and Lord only knows how much they lose in parking fees.

Losing upwards of $1.3 million over a weekend because you didn't sell enough tickets and hot dogs is a pretty big hit to take.

That said, the O's attendance is not a surprise and I also don't think it's emblematic of a problem isolated to Baltimore.

You can make tons of attendance excuses throughout the season and many of them are just that...excuses. But Labor Day weekend is a busy four days around here, particularly if the weather is favorable. Truth of the matter, had they done 125,000 for the four games against Boston, I would have been far more surprised by that than seeing the 85,000 or so they're going to draw.

And here's the truth: The team hasn't really done anything to make people want to go the games.

In fact, here's something people probably don't take into account. Losing on Thursday night probably cost them a couple of thousand people on Friday. And losing on Friday (after losing on Thursday) might have cost them a few thousand more people on Saturday night.

Momentum happens both on and off the field.

Had the Birds won on Thursday and Friday, you might have seen a lot more people wander down to the ballpark last night with the Birds again closing in on the Guardians in the playoff race.

Your mileage may vary here, but I go to games because I love baseball, love watching it live and, generally, love the whole aspect of sitting in the stands on a warm summer night and not really caring one way or the other if they win or lose.

It is kind of funny how baseball works. The players don't really care on a daily basis if they win or lose "this game" because there's another one tomorrow. I've always been the same way as a fan. I go to the game. If they win, great. If they lose, it's no big deal.

Football's a different animal. If you go to a Ravens home game and they lose, it sort of sours the town's mood, and maybe your mood as well, for a day or two.

Just going to the baseball stadium and watching a game is a win. To me, at least.

That said, I'm also not totally motivated to go just because the game or the series "means something".

I watched the games on Thursday, Friday and Saturday from the comfort of my living room. In fairness, I had some golf-related stuff going on Saturday so I couldn't have gone even if I would have wanted to go. But I could have gone Thursday or Friday and simply opted to sit home and watch it on TV.

I suspect a lot of folks feel that way around town.

I think a lot of people also get sticker shock when they go to a game. Two people in decent seats with some food and a drink or two are shelling out $70 each, minimum. Anytime someone uses "price" as an objection when we talk about O's tickets, I compare it to a dinner at a semi-decent restaurant. It's probably $70 to go to Outback, for instance, if you're getting a steak and two drinks. $70 to a ballgame, $70 for dinner.

And you don't have to pay $30 to park when you go to Outback, either.

So, attendance issues -- if you're calling 20,000 for what turns out to be four weekend games vs. the Red Sox "attendance issues" -- can be looked at like a pizza with a bunch of slices.

One slice is Labor Day weekend. Maybe even two slices, frankly. I mean, if you're away on Friday, you're probably away on Saturday and Sunday as well.

One slice is the season is almost over and there's a prevailing thought that these home games don't really matter.

Unlike me, some fans crave going to "meaningful" or important games and being there to see it all unfold in person. Without the push for a legitimate playoff spot or division title, etc., that lure isn't there for the ardent fan.

One slice is the general lack of enthusiasm for the 2026 team and season. I guess that gets coupled with the slice referenced above about the season almost being over and all, but the crowds haven't been great since late March. The team just doesn't scream "COME WATCH US PLAY GREAT BASEBALL!"

I think cost might be a slice. The games being on TV might be a slice.

I don't really consider "going downtown" to be a slice, personally, but I think there's always a whisper in people's ears when they're going to an evening ballgame to "keep your head on a swivel."

Last night's crowd was good, even if it was fueled by a larger-than-normal throng of Red Sox fans.

The other two...not so good.

There's a lot of reasons for that.

But the biggest one of them all is the most obvious: This year's Orioles team hasn't done anything to inspire people to drop what they're doing and spend their money on a team that is less-than-inspiring.

Saturday September 5, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4400

sometimes you just gotta tip your cap

We start off today's edition with a tip of the cap to Red Sox pitcher Ranger Suarez. Maybe last night's start in Baltimore wasn't "masterful", but it was darn near close.

The Red Sox won, 1-0, and Suarez clamped down on an already lethargic Orioles offense by limiting them to just 5 hits in seven innings of work.

Boston parlayed a first-inning homer into the game's only run and sent the Birds to their 4th straight defeat. There are no "easy" ways to lose, but falling 1-0 and not scoring a run at home is one of the tougher ways to go down, I'm thinking.

The Red Sox are a good team. That much is true. You'll remember (maybe) that this very website picked them to go to the World Series and eventually lose to the Dodgers in October.

Right now, I'm feeling better about the Red Sox getting to the Fall Classic than I am the Dodgers making it that far. The Red Sox have a nice team.

Sometimes, you just gotta tip your cap.

Well done, Ranger.

A story circulated in the NFL this week that sorta-kinda flew under the radar, but it's a fascinating discovery by an analyst-turned-sleuth who figured out a strategical advantage created by one NFL team over an extended period of time.

Would it shock you to find out that the team in question is.........the New England Patriots?

It is the Patriots. And the discovery goes back to the days of -- you know it's coming -- Bill Belichick.

A guy named Ryan Paganetti figured this out. All credit goes to him. He was doing some research about kickers in the NFL and how they fared in certain end zones of stadiums across the country when he came upon a statistical anomaly.

Visiting kickers in New England missed more field goals than in any other venue in the league.

Understand the significance of his findings. It wasn't that more kicks, in general, were missed at Gillette Stadium. It's that more visiting kickers missed kicks at Gillette Stadium.

And why did that happen, you wonder?

Well...........

Perhaps it had something to do with what the Patriots game-day operational folks were showing on the video board that is located directly behind both end zones and goalposts.

When visiting kickers stepped up to attempt a kick, what they looked up and saw on the video board was, in fact, themselves. Except the camera angle distorted the view so that as the kicker looked at the goalposts in front of him -- "live", if you will -- he also saw the goalposts on the video board from the camera view being shot behind him. And those goalposts were slightly to the left of the "live" goalposts.

Make sense?

Think of it as if you're "seeing double" when you're attempting a 40-yard field goal. You stride up to the ball to hit it and as you look up at your target, you're actually seeing FOUR goalposts in your vision, not two. You're seeing the actual goal posts and you're also seeing those same goal posts on the video board.

Patriots kickers didn't face the same view. The board was left blank when they kicked.

But visiting kickers were met with the optical illusion on every field goal and extra point. And over time, the data revealed a larger number of misses by visiting kickers than in any other stadium in the country.

Wild, right?

Clever? Legal chicanery? Or was it nefarious and dirty pool?

Before you accuse the Patriots of cheating (again), it's important to note they didn't violate any NFL rules. The league even issued a statement this week saying as much. Now, maybe down the road it's going to be overturned and a new rule will be created, but there's nothing in the rules saying the Patriots cheated or violated a game-day regulation.

They were just better than everyone else when it came to gaining an edge, that's all.

Sometimes you just gotta tip your cap to the other guy and say, "Dude, well done. Well freakin' done."

At the bottom of the page, you'll see a quick 5 minute video hosted by Mike Florio of NBC Sports where he shows the discovery Paganetti made recently, with videos included.

A similar "tip your cap" story came back in the 1997 Ryder Cup at Valderrama GC in Spain, where the Europeans were trying to win their 2nd straight Ryder Cup. The captain that year was Spain's favorite golfing son, Seve Ballesteros.

There was simply no way Ballesteros was going to lose the Ryder Cup at his "home" course in Spain. And he made sure of it.

Because Valderrama had been renovated a decade earlier and wasn't part of a regular rotation on the European Tour, very few players from either team had played it prior to the '97 Ryder Cup.

One the more controversial holes was the par 5 17th, which was originally the 8th hole when the course was first built in 1974. Ballesteros was involved in the redesign and renovation of the course in the mid 1980's and he insisted the 8th hole should be changed to be the 17th hole because of its "risk-reward" setting. In fact, Ballesteros had a pond built in front of the green and raised the putting surface by about 20 feet to mimic the 15th hole at Augusta National.

Fast forward to the 1997 Ryder Cup and the Monday practice rounds for both teams.

No one could keep the ball on the 17th green because the sloping feature of the putting surface would not hold approach shots on the 515 yard hole. Any ball that hit the front third of the green would gently roll back and go into the pond. The fairway cut of the grass in front of the green was so low and short that balls simply rolled down the hill and into the water. There was no way to stop them.

After Monday's practice round, Nick Faldo, then a prominent European Ryder Cup player, approached Ballesteros to discuss the 17th hole.

"You need to do something about the approach at 17," Faldo reportedly told Seve. "Tell the maintenance crew not to cut the fairway there for the rest of the week so we might be able to keep the ball dry if we don't carry the shot far enough into the green."

"I got it handled," Seve told Faldo.

The Americans complained as well, but their objections weren't heard.

On Tuesday, the same thing happened. Players hitting their second shots into the green were baffled by their inability to keep the ball dry. Every shot would hit the front of the green, spin a little, and gently roll down the hill, picking up speed before racing into the pond.

Tuesday evening, Faldo brought it up to Ballesteros once again. "The boys are really struggling with that shot into 17," Faldo said. "I thought you were going to stop them from shaving down the fairway there."

"I have it handled," Seve said. "Don't worry about it. Just keep practicing and getting ready."

The Americans were now complaining a little more loudly and their comments were appearing in the local and national media reports from the course.

Wednesday came and went and the same thing happened. Players from both teams were flustered. The green, like the 15th at Augusta was far more wide than deep. So unless you missed your second shot long of the green, you were faced with having to hit your approach shot in the front third or the middle at best.

Several other players approached Seve after Wednesday's practice round to talk about the problems they were having at the 17th hole.

"I know," Seve said. "I promise you, it won't be a problem in the matches."

After Thursday's practice round, Ballesteros gathered his European team together for the annual kick-off dinner at a swanky Spanish restaurant just down the street from the course.

At one point, Seve stood up and said, "I'd like to talk with you guys about the 17th hole."

Everyone leaned in to listen.

"This week, when you play the 17th hole, you are going to have two options. If you hit a good drive, you might have 220 yards into the hole. If you don't hit a good drive, you'll be forced to lay up to a yardage of your preference for your 3rd shot."

And then Seve authored his Mona Lisa of the 1997 Ryder Cup.

"On either of those shots, whether you're going for the green or hitting your 3rd shot from inside of 100 yards, I want you to take three practice swings and make sure you take a divot with each one. I want you to make sure there's dirt and grass in your grooves. Take two or three practice swings and really get those grooves filled with dirt."

"That way," Seve reasoned, "when you hit your shot, the ball won't bite and spin. It will come out with forward spin instead of backspin because the dirt and grass in the grooves won't grip the ball the way they would if you had your caddie keep the grooves completely clean."

That was it. That's how Seve "handled it".

The American team didn't come up with that kind of strategy. Or any strategy. They just kept spinning balls off the 17th green into the pond in front of the hole.

Seve left the area in front of the green shaved down and the Americans were tortured by the 17th hole all three days. In the end, the hole played a pivotal role in Europe pulling off a narrow 14.5 to 13.5 win over the U.S. team.

In fact, Bernhard Langer sealed the European win by beating Brad Faxon on that hole in the Sunday's singles matches.

"That was a masterpiece by Seve," Langer said years later. "He was so calm and cool about it. 'Just leave the dirt and grass in your grooves and the ball will never spin back into the pond.'"

Sometimes, you just gotta tip your cap to the other guy and say, "Well freakin' done."

I thought what the Astros did in 2017 was definitely "cheating", but some tried-and-true baseball folks thought otherwise. Even when Major League Baseball came down hard on them once the investigation was complete, there were people who thought the only thing Houston did, really, was come up with an intricate, sophisticated way to steal signs from the catcher.

Banging on trash cans.

Wearing electrical devices that would buzz once if it was a fastball and twice if it was an off-speed pitch? Genius. Like, really smart.

It was definitely high-level chicanery.

And it's likely that it helped the Astros win the World Series that year, the same way Billy Cundiff might have sent the Patriots to the Super Bowl because he saw four goalposts on the video board on that ill-fated 32 yarder in the 2012 AFC Championship Game.

It's either in the rules or not in the rules.

There's a saying in NASCAR. "Everyone's cheating this week. The only question is, who is going to get caught?"

Baseball players are always looking for an edge. If you know the pitch that's coming, it helps out a lot. What the Astros did was wrong. But you know they're not the only team that ever stole signs and came with up quick, unique ways to transfer that information to the batter. Houston just happened to get nailed for it.

Sometimes you just gotta tip your cap to the other guy.

Friday September 4, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4399

when it rains, it pours

Either Craig Albernaz is the unluckiest dude in the country these days or he has no idea what he's doing.

Maybe it's a mixture of both.

Once again last night, in a crushing 6-5 loss to Boston, nearly every move Albernaz made wound up stinking up the place like Aunt Betty's feet at the family picnic in August.

I'd go through them all, but the reality is that it's starting to feel a little bit like piling on at this point. It's (seemingly) something in almost every loss the O's endure these days.

Whether it's letting Narvaez hit while Basallo sits in the dugout or going with De Leon again and having that blow up in his face for the second time this week, Albernaz just can't move his pieces into the right spots on the board.

This kind of stuff, it should be remembered, is precisely what the football community did to the likes of Harbaugh and his legion of coaches over two-plus decades.

When the Ravens lost, particularly in the Lamar era -- as if Lamar wasn't capable of making game-changing mistakes in places like Buffalo and Kansas City -- it was always on Harbaugh. Or Wink Martindale. Or Zach Orr. Or Todd Monken. It was never really heaped on the players. It was always, supposedly, a coaching mistake that led to the loss.

We're starting to see that with the Orioles this season, too, which is one of the reasons why I'm soft-peddling around a couple of those curious decisions from last night's loss. Here of late, Albernaz can do no right. But only in the losses. When the team wins, no one mentions him.

The blame (and credit) gets shared with the players, of course. They are the ones who do the actual work on the field. In fact, the blame should mostly go to the players just like the credit should mostly go to them, too.

If Narvaez, with his .091 average in 22 games with the Birds, homers or knocks in the go-ahead run during that at-bat in the 7th, all is forgotten about the decision not let Basallo hit in that spot. If De Leon gets guys out (or if Cano doesn't give up the 2-run gopher ball later in the 8th inning), no one is saying a word about Albernaz going with a rookie starter-turned-reliever in a game with playoff implications.

Alas, it all went wrong in those instances. And what followed was a loss to the Red Sox that dropped the O's to 69-72 on the season and puts them in dire need of winning the next three from Boston over the holiday weekend.

Thursday night's game featured two home runs from former O's catcher and first-round draft pick Adley Rutschman. If you have paid attention at all to sports in your life, you knew something like that was coming the first time he returned to Baltimore. There are sports gods. They make sure of it.

His first-at-bat was met with a standing ovation from the crowd and Adley responded by dumping a ball over the right field wall to give Boston a 1-0 lead. He'd homer again later on to make the score 3-2 in favor of the Birds.

The internet lit up with O's fans spewing vitriol at other O's fans who applauded Rutschman during his at-bat and after his first and second home runs.

"We're in a playoff race you morons!" someone wrote on Twitter in response to a video that circulated of the standing ovation given to Rutschman in the first inning.

"Turn in your fan card when you leave the park tonight if you cheered for Rutschman after he hit that home run," someone else wrote.

No one asked me, but here's the official #DMD stance when it comes to things like a player returning to face his former team.

There's nothing at all wrong with showing respect and appreciation for a player when he makes his first return back to his old stomping grounds.

And this wasn't Adam Frazier returning. Or Charlie Morton. It was Adley Rutschman, a beloved figure here over the last five seasons.

It just so happened that Rutschman homered. Twice. But that had nothing at all to do with people in the stands showing their appreciation for him. He was getting a loud, lengthy ovation even if he struck out twice.

You have to remember, these guys don't get going away parties when they're dealt at the deadline (or any time). Today they're here, tomorrow they're gone. So, last night was the first opportunity for the fan base to say "Thank you for your years of service" to Rutschman.

I suspect it will be a bit different tonight and over the weekend. Now, will Adley always get polite applause when he makes an appearance at Camden Yards? Sure. But I can't imagine there will be a "rousing ovation" for him like there was on Thursday evening when he came back as a visiting player for the first time.

For one night, playoff chase or not, it was perfectly fine to offer applause and respect for Rutschman. It doesn't make you a "bad fan" or a "moron" if you were one of those last night who cheered and stood up prior to Rutschman's first at-bat.

From here on out, though, Adley's an opposing player. Yes, he'll "always be an Oriole", in the same way Haloti Ngata was "always a Raven" even though he went on to play elsewhere after his tenure came to an end in Baltimore. But tonight, Rutschman plays for Boston, not Baltimore.

In summary: What happened last night was fine. Just fine, in fact. But that kind of stadium-wide ovation that makes Rutschman feel all warm and fuzzy should definitely happen one night. And one night only.

This is now, officially, "last gasp" time for the O's, particularly given their arduous schedule over the next three-plus weeks. They simply can't afford to lose more than six games between now and the end of the season if they have any hopes of making the playoffs as the American League's 3rd wild card team.

The silver lining from this ill-timed three-game losing streak? Cleveland is losing games left and right. Minnesota, Detroit and Seattle are done. It's now going to come down to Cleveland, Texas, Toronto and Baltimore for that final wild card spot. And the O's host Cleveland next week in Baltimore for a pivotal 3-game series and they actually have six games remaining with the Blue Jays.

It's not looking good, obviously. But as Randy Morgan pointed out here earlier this week with his predictive analysis, it might wind up only taking 83 wins to get into that 3rd wild card spot. However, tiebreakers would almost certainly apply there and some of them don't favor the Birds.

The Orioles just have to keep playing the games and see where the chips fall. They need to win, obviously, and they need Texas, Toronto and Cleveland to lose along the way. Fortunately, they have 9 games against Cleveland and Toronto combined to put a dent into that deficit in the standings.

A lot of people -- both here and throughout the social media world -- have given up on the team, which is both expected and understandable. It's a natural reaction to "quit" when things look bleak. Folks with some degree of intestinal fortitude will dig in, carry on and play everything out until it can no longer be played out.

But a lot of people just give up. We probably wouldn't want them on our team. "Quitting" is not a quality character trait. That said, it is very much a normal human reaction.

Me?

I'm in it until they put that "E" next to the Orioles name in the standings.

Flyers fans know exactly what I'm talking about. "E" stands for "eliminated". They usually see that next to the Flyers name in the standings around March 10 every year.

Until I see "E" next to "ORIOLES", I'm keeping the faith.

faith in sports

OK, so if you've paid any attention to #DMD over the last decade, you know this video below is coming at the start of football season.

It's the Tim Tebow 3:16 story.

I run this story here every year because I'm excited to share it with you and I'd love for you to watch it and understand the significance of what God put Tim Tebow on this earth to accomplish.

In my travels with FCA, I come across a lot of people who are "non believers", if you will. And that's fine. Part of doing ministry work -- sports or otherwise -- is encountering non-believers and hopefully having an impact on them.

The Tim Tebow 3:16 story is remarkable. I'd say it's "unbelievable", but it's easy to believe because it actually happened.

Please take 9 minutes today and watch the video and story below.

Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of #DMD and our "Faith in Sports" segment here every Friday.

Thursday September 3, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4398

coulda, shoulda won all three

That's an easy game to play.

The Orioles won Monday night's game.

They could have won Tuesday's game in Colorado.

And they should have won Wednesday's game vs. the Rockies.

A 3-game sweep.

Alas, it didn't turn out that way.

In fact, people because love to do the coulda-shoulda-woulda game, lots of folks around town are rallying with the cry of "The O's were a miracle catch away from getting swept by the worst team in baseball."

Yep. As it turned out, that was true.

That said, none of that really matters. None of it. Saying "We could have gotten swept" is like me saying "I could have taken Jennifer Garner out for coffee when I met her on Super Bowl radio row in 2014, except I didn't ask her out." I could have. But I didn't.

I'm a believer that most of the games you steal eventually wind up getting balanced out by the games that get stolen from you.

The Orioles stole that game on Monday night. That game was a loss when the ball left that kid's bat but Colton Cowser saved the day and the game with a spectacular catch.

Yesterday's game was sewed up and stored in bags already for the flight home until the manager -- again, for like the 18th time this season -- bungled the pitching rotation out of the bullpen and the O's gave away a game they figured they had won with a 2-run 11th inning.

The miracle wins and give-away losses even out along the way.

Wednesday was karmic payback for the way the O's won on Monday. That's how I see it.

Now, you can argue all you want that the O's should never go 1-2 against the lowly Rockies and I won't dispute that one bit.

But bellyaching about the whole "We should have been swept" theory means nothing at all. They weren't swept. They won a game on Monday. Saying "They should have been swept" is akin to saying, "Zay Flowers shouldn't have fumbled in the end zone of the AFC Championship Game vs. Kansas City." That's right. But he did.

There's no use in going thru another fustercluck engineered by Craig Albernaz. Sometimes I wonder if he's paying attention at all. Or, perhaps, leaning too much on the analytics.

The stat nerds will jump up and down and say, "Yennier Cano's pitch arsenal is statistically a terrible match-up in Colorado."

People who watch baseball and know Cano didn't pitch on Monday or Tuesday think bringing him in to face one batter on Wednesday was silly. Three pitches, one ground ball out and his day was done. I don't get it.

And then the manager goes with Kittredge to start the bottom of the 9th?

Cano throws three pitches. He hasn't pitched since Sunday against the Athletics. And you don't give him the ball to start the 9th? #clownshoes

But that's only one of about 18 puzzling late game decisions Albernaz has made this season. Or maybe since the All-Star break. They all tend to run together.

It was a terrible loss on Wednesday, no two ways about it.

But those games happen along the way. The O's stole a couple from the Rays at home earlier in the season, remember? "The Colton Cowser series", I think we called it. And they totally stole Monday's 2-1 win over the Rockies don't forget.

It goes without saying but we'll say it anyway.

They're still in the race, even at 69-71. The clock is ticking a little more rapdily, of course, considering they likely can only lose 78 games if they're going to snag that 3rd and final wild card spot.

These next 7 games vs. Boston and Cleveland will pretty much decide how much longer the O's stay in the race.

If they can somehow go 6-1, they're in great shape.

If they go 5-2, they're OK, but they're still walking a tightrope.

If they go 4-3 and they have 74 losses when Cleveland leaves town next week, they're in trouble given what lies ahead for them, schedule wise.

But they are still alive and well at this point, with these seven home games looming large.

Tiger Woods had his day in court yesterday in Florida and in an interesting turn of events, Woods changed his plea from the previous "not guilty" to "no contest", avoiding jail time but losing his driver's license for five years in the process.

As I wrote on Twitter yesterday, I thought five years was an excessive punishment, but there's no doubt Woods needed to have his driving privileges revoked for some period of time.

I assume he'll be able to file for some sort of reduction of that five years after completing a driving class or two, but that's neither here nor there. At this point, he's off the road, as a driver, for potentially the next five years.

Following that accident last spring, Woods made a trip over to Switzerland seeking help for his various "dependencies", whatever they might be.

Whether he's clean and ready to move on with his life in a new way is something only he can answer.

There's no final golfing act attached to Tiger's story. Oh, sure, he might someday win the U.S. Senior Open or one of the other senior golf major championships, but no one really cares about any of those things. His meaningful golf career is over. Tiger finished with 82 career wins, tying Sam Snead for the all-time wins record, and 15 majors, trailing only Jack Nicklaus and his 18.

It was an amazing run, mainly because he did about 90% of that stuff before age 33.

But the last five years or more have been married with more police blotter activity than golf activity.

Tiger didn't lose much on the golf course, but he certainly lost yesterday in the courtroom. And rightfully so.

---

orioles minor league player of the week

It’s time to highlight the O’s farm system a little bit and announce our DMD Orioles’ Minor League Player of the Week. This week several prospects made this a very difficult decision, but ultimately, we have selected Chesapeake Baysox 1B Victor Figueroa.

Figueroa, 22, had a fantastic week at the plate for the surging Baysox as he hit .400 (10-25) with three doubles, one home run, four RBI, six runs scored and threw in two walks as well. He boasted a 1.084 OPS for the week.

Acquired as part of the trade last season that sent Ryan O’Hearn and Ramon Laureano to the San Diego Padres, the left-handed hitting Figueroa has had a nice first full-season in the Orioles’ organization.

After hitting .271 with 22 home runs, 15 doubles, three triples, 74 RBI and 49 runs scored over 79 games with the High-A Frederick Keys, he earned a promotion to AA where he has continued to produce.

Over 28 games since his promotion, Figueroa has produced a .812 OPS over 28 games, including a .290 batting average, four homers, five doubles, 15 RBI and 16 runs scored. I really like what we are seeing from him in his first taste of the AA level. He has continued to hit, but has also shown much improvement defensively at first base as well.

Not currently ranked among the top 30 Orioles’ prospects, I highly expect he cracks that list to begin the 2027 season where he will likely begin in AA, but if he produces at the plate the way he has this year, he could be in AAA Norfolk before the All-Star Break.

Be sure to check back in all season as we will continue to highlight top performers from the O’s farm system!

This contribution on the Orioles minor league system was provided by Josh Michael.

Wednesday September 2, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4397

wednesdays with greg

Before I turn things over to Greg Trehane, we'll quickly go over last night's disheartening 4-2 loss in Colorado.

The O's have scored 4 runs in two games in Denver. That's the (bad) story. Last night, they managed to tie the game in the 7th on a Jackson Holliday homer, then promptly gave up two runs in the bottom of the inning, aided in part by a Holliday error.

They had Dylan Beavers at second with one out in the 8th but Encarnacion-Strand and Gunnar couldn't get him home.

And, so, the Birds are 6-2 on this road trip with today's series finale vs. the Rockies still left to play.

We said here last week they needed to go 7-2, 6-3 at worst, in order to keep themselves in the fight for the A.L. wild card spot. Mission accomplished there, but today's game vs. their old buddy Tomoyuki Sugano is a big one nonetheless.

The U.S. Presidents Cup team was settled last night with four expected picks and two surprising additions to the team.

As expected, Gotterup, Cantlay, Schauffele and (Justin) Thomas were added by captain Brandt Snedeker. But he went down the list of candidates to tab Jacob Bridgeman (ranked #1 on TOUR in strokes gained putting in 2026) and rookie Jackson Koivun (winner of the 3M Open in his 3rd career start as a pro in August) as his final two picks.

I'm excited to see those new guys compete later this month at Medinah CC. As I've said here often, the team needs new blood, particularly in the Ryder Cup. Perhaps Bridgeman and Koivun will be part of next fall's squad that goes over to Ireland returns home a winner on European soil for the first time since 1993.

And now...on to Greg we go.

#DMD contributor Greg Trehane fires some pressing sports questions at Drew in today's edition of "Wednesdays with Greg".

Greg: "What did you think about the controversy with Jazz Chisholm and the Yankees over the weekend?"

DF: "Completely outrageous. The Red Sox should be ashamed of themselves. It's a 7-1 game. I don't care what inning it is, the score is 7-1. If you want to steal a base and try to improve your chances of scoring, go for it. If I'm losing 7-1 and I don't want you to score any more runs, there's a novel way to handle that. I can stop you from getting a hit or getting on base.

I've never seen a sport with more soft athletes than baseball. And because so many of the on-air broadcasters had playing experience, they're soft, too. They're up there in the booth talking about beaning people because they had the audacity to continue trying to play the game when the score was 7-1.

The guy stole a couple of bases. So what? You could have held him on, but you didn't want to bother doing that. Baseball should just come up with a rule. If you're losing in the 8th or 9th inning and you want to end the game, there should be a "give up flag", like a challenge flag, where you throw it on the field and the game just ends. No more using field players to pitch and no more whining like a 7-year old because the other team stole a base or "tried" to hit a home run in a 9-1 game.

These unwritten baseball rules are beyond stupid. It's embarrassing."

Greg: "As you know, I'm not much of a golfer, so I'll yield to you on this question. What makes Scottie Scheffler so good? Can you offer a simple explanation for the novice or inexperienced golfer reading this?"

DF: "For starters, he's an exceptional driver of the golf ball. He's like Nicklaus, in that regard. Scottie is constantly playing from the fairway. Tiger, on the other hand, was long off the tee back in his heyday, but he certainly was never considered a "great" driver of the ball. He was wild off the tee. But he was also an amazing wedge player and, under the gun, a remarkable putter.

Scottie's iron play is also extra-elite. He has great control of his trajectory and spin. If you watch him play a round of golf, it's almost an art-form the way he moves the ball into certain areas of the green to give himself the best look at a birdie putt. Tee to green, if you just count his driver and his irons, Scheffler is every bit the player Tiger was during his amazing run. Where Tiger was better than anyone else was around the greens, with the scoring (wedges) clubs and with the putter in his hand.

And Tiger feasted on the par 5 holes. If the course they were playing on that week had four par 5 holes, Tiger was 10 under before the event started. Maybe even 11 or 12 under. That's how good he was on the par 5 holes back then.

But the biggest thing was his putter. Tiger realistically only missed two or three "critical" putts in his entire career. And he won 82 tournaments!!

He missed the 8 footer at the 72nd hole of the 2005 Masters which forced him to go into a playoff with Chris DiMarco. I realize he went on to win that Masters, but, still, he had an 8-footer to win at 18 in regulation and missed it. He missed a fairly big putt in the middle of the back nine of the '09 PGA when he lost to Y.E. Yang. I think it was at #15, right after Yang made eagle? And he missed a big one against Molinari in the final round of the British Open in, what year was that, 2018? I think it was on #12. He made double at #11 and then missed a makeable par putt at #12.

But for the most part, Tiger just never missed big, tournament-changing putts in his career. It was amazing to watch.

However, here's what I think: Scheffler is every bit the tee-to-green player that Tiger was. I really believe that."

Greg: "Looking ahead to the Ravens, what will be the biggest surprise of the season for them?"

DF: "How easily the Ravens win the division will be the biggest surprise. Cleveland will be 6-11, maybe. They might be worse than 6-11 actually. Pittsburgh wins 7 games max. No way they can win more than that.

Cincy has to fight like Mike Tyson just to win 10 games. If every chakra in their body lines up right for four months, maybe they win 11. But I think it's far more likely the Bengals win less than 10 than more than 10. Like, FAR more likely they go 8-9 than 11-6.

The Ravens will have the division locked up before most people start their Christmas shopping in earnest. It will be surprisingly easy."

Greg: "I see you opine often on X about baseball scorekeepers and their refusal to give errors. Why does that bother you so much?"

DF: (laughs) "I don't know, that's a great question. It has something to do with what I perceive to be an entitlement that you see in baseball. I guess the salaries have something to do with it, too. Now I'm sounding like Jim Palmer, I guess. But it just irritates the snot out of me to see a ball hit to a guy and he makes an error and the scorekeeper awards a hit.

It's symbolic of one of the things that's wrong with our country. No one wants to be honest with someone and potentially hurt their feelings. "Sorry, bub, that was an error there. You should have caught that ball." See, that's not hard to say.

We've become a nation where we can't really say what we want or what the situation calls for because it might offend someone.

So, now we're apparently afraid to hurt the player's psyche by telling him he made an error. It's a joke. If a ball is hit to you that you SHOULD catch, and you don't catch it, that's an error. It doesn't make you a bad guy or a terrible player. It just means you made an error on that play."

Greg: "On a similar subject in terms of you having an opinion, what are your thoughts on the NIL situation in college sports and how much money is being thrown around?"

DF: "I think there are layers to that conversation. Am I OK with them getting compensated? Yes. Should they be making hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars? Absolutely not.

Paying college athletes hasn't made college sports 'better', per se. I mean, the student-athletes are certainly happy, as they should be. They're getting treated better. But the sports themselves, the actual competitions, haven't improved because suddenly the starting tight end at Vanderbilt is getting $200,000 a season or the starting small forward at Illinois is getting $700,000.

College sports teams always got the best high school athletes. It's not like the best high school football player in Florida said, "If I'm only getting a scholarship at Tennessee, I'm not going." The best high school athletes all went on to college. All paying them has done is created this system where money rules every decision and the schools themselves then start trying to outspend one another for the best players. It's a death trap (it's a suicide rap, we gotta get out while we're young).

The transfer concept is asinine. It's beyond awful. Kids hopping around like they're going to different summer camps. And the more whispers you hear, the more we're finding out a lot of the student-athletes in football or basketball are taking most of their courses online. It's not really "college" sports any longer. Which sucks.

Now, should they get paid "something" for playing? Sure, there's an argument for that. But they have to actually be going to class and/or earning a degree. In other words, they have to actually be "going to school".

And should the star quarterback at Texas A&M get $1.50 every time his jersey is sold in the school store or at the stadium? I can sign off on that.

But just forking over $1 million to a kid so he can play at XXXX University? Idiotic. But that's where we're at and there's no turning back at this point."

Greg: "Turn back the clock to 2010 and tell me what you thought would happen in sports in 15 years than hasn't happened yet. And it's now 2026, almost 2027."

DF: "Wow, I have to go back and think about that one. I definitely thought Tiger would have ecliped Jack's record of 18 majors back in 2010. I know he was coming off the scandal with his ex-wife and all, but that was a nothing-burger, golf-wise, compared to the injuries and surgeries he endured.

So that's one for sure. I assumed Tiger would win 20 majors. He had 14 in 2010. And he finished with 15.

I also figured we'd be paying money to watch every Ravens game by now. You know, some sort of season long package. $99 for all 17 games. Or something along those lines. Obviously the league has "some" of that with the Prime Video Game and the Peacock Game and so on, where you have to pay for those channels to get access to certain games.

I probably would have told you in 2010 that at some point in the next 15 years, the Orioles would make a World Series. I mean, wouldn't they just 'fluke' their way into one, at least, by now? Alas, they haven't.

In 2010, I would have told you the City of Baltimore would, by the year 2026, either have a state-of-the-art arena in place or be building one downtown somewhere. I mean, the Civic Center was built in 1962. 1962!!! That's 64 years ago. What a colossal embarrassment that whole process -- or lack thereof -- is to our city and state government(s)."

Greg: "Tony Romo issued his apology today (Tuesday) and hinted in there that he would be returning to CBS at some point. Thoughts on that? OK with it?"

DF: "Sure. I mean, if he worked for Morgan Stanley and got a drinking-and-driving charge, wouldn't he be allowed to go back there and work?

His apology and explanation were more than satisfactory. There's a difference between explaining why something happened vs. making an excuse for it happening. Romo spoke the truth in his explanation. He has a drinking problem. That doesn't mean he has the right to get behind the wheel and drive after drinking too much. But he drinks too much. As he wrote, he has an "over-reliance" on alcohol to help him battle some physical issues from his days playing football.

This isn't a guy who just pounded 12 beers after a golf tournament and started driving around Milwaukee that day.

This is someone with an alcohol dependency problem that requires treatment in order to beat it.

Once he has done that and once his penalty has been paid, he should be allowed back on CBS doing his job. I have no problem with that."

Tuesday September 1, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4396

it's official

As The Cars once said, succinct and eloquently: Let the good times roll.

The surging Birds made it four wins in a row and six of seven in the "W" column with a 2-1 win over Colorado in Monday night's series opener out west.

It wasn't pretty. The O's collected just four hits on the night. But Cade Povich and the bullpen weathered a real "storm" that delayed the game for the better part of an hour and dodged several other dicey situations on a night where Colorado showed why they're the worst team in all of baseball.

When the dust settled and Andrew Kittredge weasled his way out of a 9th inning situation, the Birds were finally at the .500 mark with a record of 69-69.

Kittredge went from goat to hero thanks to a game-saving spectacular catch from Colton Cowser. If the O's sneak into the post-season by a game, Cowser gets an award of some kind for that one.

And, so, it's official.

September has arrived, today, and the Orioles are going to play meaningful baseball this month.

I'm more than happy to say this and report this and fling it in your face.

I TOLD YOU SO.

There, I said it.

For all of you Doubting Thomas types out there, the Birds have showed you the holes in their hands and in their torso. You don't have to doubt them any longer.

September is here and the games matter.

I told you not to give up on those guys.

Maybe this is the way it was supposed to be after all. Scratch, fight and bite just to get into the playoffs, buzz through Houston in the opening round, and then make easy work of Tampa Bay in the ALDS before taking on Boston in the ALCS.

Every team's journey is different.

What about the irony of this little statistical nugget? The last time the Birds made the World Series was 1983. Perhaps they make it again in 2026 with only 83 regular season wins. Who knows...

The day started with a little bit of surprising news, as the Orioles claimed Luis Robert Jr. off waivers from the New York Mets. He will give them another right handed bat against left handed pitching and a reliable glove in the outfield. Oddly enough, they might need the defensive work just as much as they need the offensive production.

But Robert Jr. comes with baggage.

He was essentially chased out of Chicago, where the White Sox loved his talent and potential, but disliked his lazy attitude and propensity for getting injured. They were able to coax the Mets into taking him last off-season and they were hoping a change of scenery would do him well in Queens.

But the Mets got the same old Luis Robert Jr. And they dumped him.

The O's are on the hook for almost $5 million of his remaining salary.

Why is this a good move for the Birds?

Because it comes at the right time and the money is right. As the great Ozzie Newsome would routinely say while chasing football free agents, "Right player, right price".

Robert Jr. is a talented baseball player. If you can get that out of him.

They got it out of him in Chicago from time to time, then lost their patience with the effort it took to get Robert Jr. to earn his salary.

They got a little of it out of him in New York, but the Big Apple ain't for everyone, you know. It was never a good fit for him in particular, where the hawk-eyed press quickly sniffed Robert Jr. out for being a loafer and a guy always in the training room.

But Baltimore...might be different.

Or not.

As I noted last night on Twitter, Robert Jr. might very well just be Eloy Jimenez 2.0 and the gamble won't pay off for Mike Elias and Company.

Or he could wind up being Delmon Young.

I don't know. And neither does anyone else. Maybe Robert Jr. pinch hits in the 8th inning against the Rays in Game 3 of the ALDS and ropes a 2-run double off the wall to give the Birds an improbable 3-2 win over Tampa Bay.

For $5 million, why not?

There was a time in baseball where $5 million was a lot of money. Now, it's like you and I going to the hotel check-in counter and the person there saying, "You can upgrade to a suite for $50 a night."

For $50, why not? It might be worth it. But you won't know until you throw your bags down in the room and open up the curtains to see the view.

Worst case scenario, you spent $50 you didn't have to spend.

The same goes for the Orioles. Maybe they spend $5 million to confirm what others in baseball already know: Luis Robert Jr. is washed.

Or maybe. Just maybe. He's the guy with the big hit against the Rays or the Red Sox in October.

Oh, and speaking of gambling.

Last night's 2-1 win in Colorado was the outlier of the series. Runs -- a lot of them -- will be scored in the next two games, starting tonight.

Just a hunch here, but one worth playing: Homers tonight from Alonso, Mayo and Gunnar. That parlay should yield a nice reward.

Have at it, as Brian Billick used to say.

They'll be announcing the captain's picks for the Presidents Cup tonight at 5 pm, and unlike most years when nobody really cares about that particular event, this one has some very interesting twists and possibilities.

American captain Brandt Snedeker has six picks to make tonight. Two of them are slam dunk, done deals. Xander Schauffele and Chris Gotterup are being added. No two ways about it.

My guess is Patrick Cantlay's form in the recent FedEx Cup playoffs cemented his spot on the team, despite not having won once in the last four seasons on the PGA Tour.

Cantlay's partnership with Xander Schauffele in previous Ryder and Presidents Cup events will also be factored in, I'm guessing. I'm not the biggest Patrick Cantlay guy on the planet, but I see the logic in adding him for the 2026 competition at Medinah later this month.

And then there were three.

Who will they be?

As much as it bothers me, I'm guessing Justin Thomas is going to be added. I'd like to see Snedeker go "rookie" with a few of his picks, which is why I'm thrilled Gotterup will be on the team. Using a pick on Justin Thomas is akin to using a pick on someone like Rickie Fowler or Jordan Spieth or, heck, Matt Kuchar.

J.T. has played in enough of these things. Give someone else a shot. Alas, I don't think Sneds will pass him up. J.T. will be pick number four.

That leaves two openings.

I think Ryan Gerard is going to get one of them. He should get one of them, in fact. He had an excellent 2026 season, punctuated with his flirtation with the FedEx Cup championship last weekend at East Lake GC in Atlanta.

And here's the thing about Gerard that makes him an inviting pick. He really wants to be on the team. The Presidents Cup is the little brother to the Ryder Cup, but that doesn't matter to Gerard. This is a big deal to him. He's earned a shot, in my mind, of showing he's capable of playing at that level.

If J.J. Spaun's shoulder is OK, I'm guessing he's going to get the last pick and I'm fine with that. I like Spaun's moxy and the way he plays big-stakes golf. He was a gritty competitor at the Ryder Cup last fall despite the U.S. loss and he's the kind of guy who will drape the flag on his back and play for his country because it's meaningful for him.

But if they pass on Spaun due to health or otherwise, I'd love to see that final pick go to someone like Michael Brennan or Michael Thorbjornsen.

New blood.

Young blood.

Eager blood.

Let's get some guys involved who haven't been there before to see if they have what it takes to play in these team competitions.

I realize Ben Griffin is up there in the points standings and might very well get the nod because of that, but I'd take Brennan's summer of '26 play and Thor's summer of '26 play over anything Griffin has done of late.

Just, please, no Fowler or Spieth. They had their day in the sun. A lot of them, in fact.

Get some new guys in there and let's see what they can do.

The picks will be made on The Golf Channel tonight at 5 pm, for those who are interested.

Monday August 31, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4395

it's okay to say "i was wrong"

I have several friends who are diehard O's supporters. To borrow a friendly term, their fandom for the team makes me look like "amateur night". I love the Orioles. I have friends who freakin' L-O-V-E the Orioles. Like, it's sorta-kinda what they wrap their life around.

One of those buddies, John, has been on the "Fire Elias, Fire Everyone" campaign since early June. In fairness to John, who is 7 years younger than me, if that matters, he's been on the "Fire Elias, Fire Everyone" campaign since last June. Like, 2025 June.

Back in early August, he scoffed at something I wrote here about the Orioles making the playoffs and said to me, quote, "You should work for Disney so you can get paid to live in fantasy land."

He followed that up with, "They won't win 75 games."

I said, "A bottle of Worthy says they win at least 75 games."

"You're on, they won't win 75," he responded.

Well, Johnny old boy, and others who doubted the O's, the grapes are almost fully ripe. You can get that bottle of Worthy ready to hand over to your buddy here.

Editor's note: In fairness, making that sort of wager really is a no-brainer. If I win, John gives me a bottle of Worthy and I probably say, "Let's open it now and have a glass or two," when he brings it to me. And if they don't win 75 games and I have to give John a bottle, he'd probably do the same thing with me. Either way, I'm drinking Worthy.

Not only are the O's a virtual lock to win 75 games, they're starting to look like the odds-on favorite to snag that third and final wild card spot in the American League.

They're getting hot at just the right time, as I wrote here yesterday.

Moments after the O's sewed up Sunday's 8-5 series sweeper over the Athletics, I sent John a text.

"It's o.k. to say 'I was wrong'", I wrote to him. "I'll still hang out with you."

An hour later, John shot back: "I hope you're right about all of this and they make the playoffs. But you'll see the real Orioles when they play Boston and Cleveland on the home stand."

We'll find out soon enough if I'm right or John's right. I think we both know...but one of us isn't ready to admit it just yet.

I noted in the Comments where a few readers were discussing the set-up of the golf course at Baltimore Country Club for this week's U.S. Senior Amateur. I thought I could shed some light on what's going on out there.

Eligibility wise, you have to be 55 or older to play in the U.S. Senior Amateur. For reasons no one knows, it's 50 or older for the U.S. Senior Open, but 55-plus for the Senior Amateur.

I'm also giving you this info without any firsthand knowledge of the course as it looks this week. I didn't make it out there over the weekend, but I'm planning on stopping out there either today or Tuesday.

Anyway, here's the deal with the course length. The hard card says they're playing it at 6600 yards. That's not "short", by the way, especially when you take into consideration it's a par 70 course, not par 72.

But here's the other thing to consider. There are "plus yardage" approach shots at #1, #3, #9, #11, #12 and #16 that probably increase the yardage by roughly 80 yards or so and if four of those holes have back pin locations, that's another 5 or 10 yards to add on to each of those holes.

The only real downhill approach shot that is substantially yardage-changing comes at #2 and maybe #15, depending on how far down the hill they hit it off the tee there.

So, it's really more like a 6800 yard course or thereabouts. And it's a par 70. That's plenty long enough. Are they playing it "all the way back"? Not in the stroke play portion they didn't. But as they get into match play starting today, I'll assume they might stretch it out another 50 yards or so.

Baltimore Country Club is an outstanding facility. The East Course is a Top 100 course in the country and the West Course is a Top 15 course in the state of Maryland for sure, despite its "little brother" tag.

As the scores in the 36-hole stroke play portion showed, the East Course is very difficult. A two-day score of 11 over par was good enough to get into a playoff for the match play portion of the event. 11 over par for 36 holes is pretty high given that you're talking about 150'ish of the best senior amateur players in the country.

Getting back to the course's length this week: Any hole is, in theory, a birdie hole, but there are really only three or four tee boxes at Five Farms where you stand on the tee and say, "I should birdie this hole." In my mind, those holes are number 6, 7 and 8. Depending on which tee box you're playing from, you might also say that on #10. I've had as little as 70 yards into that green for my second shot. It all depends on where they tee it up from at #10.

And the par 5 hole on the back (14) is a pretty simple hole as long as you hit a decent drive in the fairway. From there, it's a 175 yard layup and you'll have a wedge or other scoring club into the green.

BCC is a tough place because you can make a double bogey on every/any hole if you miss the green in the wrong spot and the pin is in a location where your miss penalizes you.

Example: At the 2nd hole, if the flag is anywhere on the right side of the green, particularly right front, and you miss the green to the right, you're absolutely DEAD. You can't make a par. And you're about 50% of the way to making a double bogey. There are certain places on every hole out there where you can't miss your approach shot.

It's a great course with lots of very challenging holes. And the fun doesn't start until you get on the greens.

Scottie Scheffler did what everyone assumed he would do yesterday in the final round of the Tour Championship at East Lake GC in Atlanta.

He jumped over four players and held off a spirited effort from Viktor Hovland to win the FedEx Cup title for the 2nd time in his career. Scheffler posted a final round 66 to cap off a run that saw him win two of the three playoff tournaments and, likely, win his 5th consecutive Player of the Year award.

Scheffler has now won 22 career PGA Tour events. Four of those are majors. And, remember, his FIRST win was on Super Bowl Sunday in 2022.

He's won 22 times in four years and six months, basically.

Oh, and in case you need more evidence for how great this dude is, check out the last five years:

Scheffler's scoring average:

2022: 69.89 (2nd on Tour)

2023: 68.26 (1st)

2024: 68.01 (1st)

2025: 67.99 (1st)

2026: 67.86 (1st)

Shots Gained, Total:

2022: 1.677 (5th)

2023: 2.314 (1st)

2024: 2.496 (1st)

2025: 2.743 (1st)

2026: 2.249 (1st)

A lot of people talk about Tiger and Scheffler like they're "nowhere close to one another" because "Tiger did it for 10 years".

Well, Scottie is halfway to ten now.

He probably won't catch Tiger's 15 majors. That's just too big of an ask.

But I don't see any one player stepping up and outplaying him in 2027. He's still going to be Scottie Scheffler next year. I'd bet he wins at least one major before I'd bet he doesn't win any of the four in 2027.

When Tiger was playing at his zenith, Phil Mickelson was mostly the 2nd best player in the world for the majority of that period, even if the rankings might have had someone else at #2 here and there.

Tiger finished his "zenith run" about 20 lengths ahead of Phil.

Scottie is the best player in the world right now and if it's Rory who is #2, Scottie's about 10 lengths ahead of Rory. And I might be being kind to McIlroy with that assessment.

Scheffler's 5-year run is unlike anything we've seen in golf over the last 40 years except for Tiger. It's better than anything Phil ever did. Better than anything Greg Norman even thought about doing. Better than Ernie. Duval. Singh. Price. Furyk. Spieth. I could go on and on.

Yesterday's final round 66 was no surprise to anyone who has followed Scheffler over the last five years.

Golf is almost too easy for him.

And it's not easy. Not in the least.

But no one since 2022 has figured it out like Scheffler has figured it out.

When his career is finished, he's going to be a Top 10 player of all time.

Or better.

	"Randy On The O's"
Randy Morgan takes #DMD readers through the recent week in Orioles baseball as the Birds try to return to the A.L. playoffs after missing the post-season in 2025.

orioles week in review

Week Record: 5-1

Season Record: 68-69

AL East Standing: 4th (14.5 GB of TB, 1 GB for 3rd WC)

Player of the Week: Gunnar Henderson: .300/.391/.750, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 1.141 OPS

The Orioles continued this maddening season, by beating the bad teams they need to beat and moving themselves right back into prime position in the Wild Card race. This week it was largely the bats and the bullpen doing the work.

The O’s took two of three in St. Louis before sweeping the Athletics in Sacramento, going 5-1 through the first six games of their nine-game road trip and moving to within one game of .500 for the first time since April. More importantly, the Birds are now just one game behind Cleveland for the final American League Wild Card spot.

The schedule certainly helped. The Cardinals are hovering around .500 and the Athletics are one of the worst teams in baseball. Sweeping Oakland (or are they Sacramento or Las Vegas?) does not suddenly make the Orioles a juggernaut, but there comes a point where complaining about the quality of the opponent misses the point.

The Orioles spent much of this season wasting opportunities against beatable teams. This week they actually took advantage of one. They scored 43 runs in six games and never scored fewer than four. Six Orioles hitters finished the week with an OPS above .900.

Even with Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers getting knocked around in St. Louis, the offense did enough to produce five wins and drag the team back to the edge of the playoff field.

For a season that has repeatedly looked dead, that is enough to make September interesting.

The road trip began Tuesday with one of the easiest wins of the season. The Orioles hammered St. Louis 13-1, tying their season high in runs. Pete Alonso led the way with a 4-for-4 night, including his 31st homer and four RBI, while Christian Encarnacion-Strand homered and drove in three. Jackson Holliday added three hits in front of his family in St. Louis. Chris Bassitt made sure none of that offense went to waste, allowing just one run over 6⅔ innings with five strikeouts and no walks.

Wednesday was more stressful. The O’s jumped out to a 7-0 lead behind a three-run Leody Taveras homer and another long ball from Alonso, then somehow managed to give all seven runs back. Kyle Bradish unraveled in the fifth and was eventually charged with seven runs over 4⅓ innings.

The Cardinals scored six in the inning to tie the game, turning what looked like another blowout into a bullpen survival exercise. Encarnacion-Strand rescued the Orioles in the ninth with a go-ahead RBI double, and Andrew Kittredge escaped the bottom half with some help from an excellent defensive play by Holliday to preserve the 8-7 win.

The Cardinals finally got the Orioles on Thursday. Trevor Rogers suffered his worst start in months, surrendering six runs on seven hits over five innings, including a three-run homer to Blaze Jordan and a two-run shot from former Oriole Ramón Urías.

The O’s made it interesting late when Coby Mayo hit a three-run homer in the seventh and Gunnar doubled home another in the eighth, but they could not complete the comeback in a 7-5 loss, settling for two of three rather than completing the sweep.

Friday brought a much different kind of game against the Athletics. Brandon Young threw seven excellent innings, allowing only one run on five hits and a walk, but Baltimore carried just a 2-1 lead into the late innings. The A's eventually tied it before Coby Mayo and Encarnacion-Strand delivered consecutive two-out RBI singles in the tenth.

Alex Hoppe allowed the automatic runner to score in the bottom half but held on for his first major-league save in the 4-3 win.

The Birds secured the series Saturday with a 5-3 win. Shane Baz finally earned his first victory since June 12, allowing two runs over 5.2 innings. Colton Cowser homered, while Leody Taveras broke out of an 0-for-12 skid with two doubles and three RBI. The bullpen made things a little more dramatic than necessary, but Kittredge handled the ninth to finish it.

Sunday looked like the sweep was slipping away when Chris Bassitt fell into an early hole and Oakland built a 5-1 lead. Then Gunnar took over. He hit a first inning homer, then Mayo cut the deficit to one with a three-run homer in the fourth before Gunnar blasted a three-run shot in the fifth to put the O’s ahead.

Henderson later added a triple in the eighth, finishing a ridiculous 4-for-4 with two home runs, a triple and five RBI in the 8-5 comeback win. Anthony Nunez, Josh Walker and Yennier Cano shut Oakland out after Bassitt departed to complete the sweep.

Player of the Week --

There were several legitimate candidates this week. Christian Encarnacion-Strand went 10-for- 25, batting .400 with a .444 on-base percentage, three doubles, a homer and six RBI. Coby Mayo homered twice and drove in eight while slugging .600. Pete Alonso continued his strong August with two more home runs and six RBI.

But Gunnar Henderson gets the award this week.

His final line was .300/.391/.750 with a double, triple, two home runs, six RBI and a 1.141 OPS. Most of that came from the one spectacular afternoon on Sunday. Before Sunday, Gunnar had only two hits during the first five games of the week, but sometimes one afternoon is good enough.

The Orioles entered Sunday trying to complete a sweep and quickly found themselves trailing 5- 1. Gunnar responded with four hits, two homers, a triple and five RBI. His three-run homer in the fifth turned a one-run deficit into a two-run lead and his second homer provided insurance in the eighth.

One monster game does not alter everything about Gunnar’s disappointing season, just as one strong week did not when he heated up earlier this month. The Orioles still need much more consistency from the player who is supposed to be the centerpiece of the franchise.

But if they are actually going to turn this ridiculous Wild Card race into a September playoff push, they need Gunnar capable of taking over games and on Sunday he showed that he still can.

On the mound, Brandon Young gave the Orioles perhaps the best start of the week with seven innings of one-run ball against Oakland. It was exactly the type of outing the Orioles have increasingly come to expect from Young this season; keeping the ball in the park, limiting the free passes and giving the offense a chance to win.

Anthony Nunez was strong out of the bullpen. He worked 4.1 innings while allowing only two hits and one walk with nine strikeouts. Nine of the 13 outs he recorded came via strikeout.

Down on the Farm --

The most impressive performance at Norfolk came from Cade Povich, who struck out 11 over 5.2 scoreless innings while allowing just two hits and one walk.

Povich has already had several opportunities in Baltimore without establishing himself, but starting pitching depth never stops mattering. Missing 11 bats worth of hitters without losing the strike zone is the kind of outing that keeps him in the conversation.

Félix Bautista also took another encouraging step in his rehab, throwing two scoreless innings for Norfolk while allowing one hit, no walks and striking out two. After the ugly results in his first rehab appearance last week, simply stacking clean innings and maintaining his progression is considerably more important than rushing him back to Baltimore.

Heston Kjerstad continued to hit, going 6-for-17 with two doubles for a .353/.389/.471 line. At this point, Kjerstad producing at Norfolk is hardly surprising. The larger question remains whether the Orioles still view him as part of their major-league plans.

Michael Forret had another mixed start, limiting opponents to two earned runs and two hits across five innings with six strikeouts, but he also walked four. Given how much the Orioles could need from Forret in 2027, the strikeouts are encouraging while the command remains the obvious area to watch.

At Chesapeake, Anthony Eyanson continued missing bats at an impressive rate. He struck out eight over 3⅔ scoreless innings while allowing three hits. The three walks prevented him from working deeper, which continues to be the primary concern, but eight strikeouts in eleven outs gives you a pretty good idea why the organization values his upside so highly.

Caden Hunter also had a strong outing with eight strikeouts and one earned run over five innings, while Patrick Reilly struck out seven in four innings of one-run ball.

Joseph Dzierwa finally looked human, allowing four runs and nine hits over five innings after weeks of dominant results. The good news is he did not walk anyone. One rough outing does very little to change what has been an outstanding season.

On the position-player side, Victor Figueroa led Chesapeake by going 8-for-21 with three doubles and a home run, good for a 1.102 OPS. Vance Honeycutt continued showing the extra- base impact that makes his profile interesting, collecting two doubles, a triple and a homer while stealing another base.

Sunday August 30, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4394

it's turning our way, you can feel it

Everyone else is losing.

And the O's are winning.

Last night's 5-3 win over the Athletics, coupled with a bunch of other wild card hopefuls losing, has the Birds right back in the proverbial "catbird seat" as they play the series finale in Sacramento today.

They're at 67-69 and now just one game behind suddenly reeling Cleveland (68-68), who lost again at home to lowly Kansas City on Saturday.

And don't look now, but the O's are once again chipping away at that elusive 500 mark. A win today and then a sweep of the lowly Rockies and the O's might very well even be on top in the wild card race when they come home to take on Boston.

I'm hearing one of the late game promotions just added to the schedule is "Humble Pie Night". The first 15,000 in the stadium get a free slice. We might buy a block of tickets for that game so we have enough for the #DMD crowd.

This is one crazy season.

And there's still a month left, remember.

High hopes in March and April.

Disappointment in May.

A revival of sorts in June.

Team trashed by the GM in late July.

One month later, they're priming themselves for a playoff run.

Such a strange last four weeks. But then again, some of us aren't really all that surprised. The pitching has mostly been there all along. The bullpen -- as long as it isn't taxed -- has been decent enough if not better than that. The hitting hasn't been good. The defense has been almost atrocious, at least for supposed Major League players.

But here of late, the bats have come alive just a bit, helped by guys like Mayo and Beavers who are starting to show why the club has maintained faith in both of them. Even Colton Cowser chipped in with a homer last night, one of the only big moments he's enjoyed since, I don't know, maybe mid-June?

I realize the three teams on the road trip are all bums. St. Louis is out of the playoff race at this point, while the A's and Rockies were eliminated right around Memorial Day.

But the schedule is the schedule. There are 162 games. You play who you play. Hold serve (or better) against the really good teams and beat up on the bad teams like the A's and Rockies.

This thing is turning around. You can feel it.

Best of all, the Birds are going to draw either Houston or the White Sox in the wild card round of the playoffs. The hunch here is Houston, who will probably win the A.L. West with a record of 84-78.

Anyone else besides me totally not scared of the Astros? Right. I love that match-up too.

Best of all? The games vs. Houston would be away, where the O's generally seem to thrive in 2026. Everything happens for a reason, huh?

The PGA Tour FedEx Cup comes down to 18 holes today, with about eight guys firmly in the hunt to collect the $10 million first place check at East Lake GC in Atlanta.

Viktor Hovland (-15) is the leader through 54 holes, with Ryan Gerard one shot back and a host of players at 12 under, three shots behind, including Adam Scott, Ludvig Aberg, Chris Gotterup and Scottie Scheffler.

Rory McIlroy and Cameron Young (-10) are both still in it, but would need a lot to go right for them and a lot to go wrong for the six guys in front of them.

Hanging in the balance isn't only ten mil, but the Player of the Year award as well, which is basically just bragging rights and bonus money from corporate sponsors.

If Scheffler wins today, the Player of the Year is a done deal.

If Hovland, Aberg, Scott or Gerard wins and Scheffler hangs around to finish Top 10, he's 95% "in" as Player of the Year.

It could get a little murky for Scheffler if Gotterup somehow winds up winning. He'd have more victories than Scheffler, including the semi-important Tour Championship trophy.

It would also get dicey for Scheffler if Cam Young storms back to win, but that seems unlikely.

A lot of folks on Twitter talked about Hovland "coming out of nowhere" to lead in Atlanta, but that's really not the case. By anyone's standards, he's had an excellent '26 season.

Viktor made 14 of 18 cuts, won an event (over Scheffler in a playoff), finished Top 10 three times and Top 25 on eight occasions.

He's battled his mercurial golf swing all year, but what's new? It wouldn't be a Viktor Hovland season without a couple of wonky training aids on the driving range and a "new move" sometime in mid-June. He links to tinker. But he's still a very nice player when everything lines up right for him.

Gerard is the most interesting guy on the first page of the leaderboard, mainly because of his unorthodoxed grip and flat swing that goes from start to finish in a hurry.

But count him out at your own peril. This guy is a player.

Gerard made 21 of 25 cuts in '26, finished 17th in the standings (before East Lake) and has, up to now, ten Top 10 25 finishes this season.

He's making a strong push for Presidents Cup consideration with his great play this week. I hope Brandt Snedeker and his group of assistants are watching closely. This, a Ryan Gerard type of player, is who they need to add to their squad when the picks are announced next week.

We've seen enough of guys like J.T., Finau, Fowler, Spieth, et al. New blood is needed.

The Presidents Cup wasn't necessarily built to be a Ryder Cup test session, but that's certainly one of the components of it, intended or not.

Throw guys like Ryan Gerard and Chris Gotterup into the Presidents Cup and give them some "team experience". Then, next fall in Ireland, they'll be better prepared to play for the American side in the Ryder Cup.

Win or not today, Gerard should be on the Presidents Cup team. So should Gotterup.

Schauffele and Cantlay are basically "automatic" add ons for the team. They're in.

I'm fairly certain Justin Thomas will be added by Snedeker even though I think there's an argument to look elsewhere.

J.J. Spaun withdrew from the Tour Championship with some mild shoulder pain, but if he's healthy, he's going to be added to the team and rightfully so.

That leaves two open spots if I'm right on those four additional picks.

With Gerard's play this week, he has to be strongly considered. If I'm adding guys, I also look at Michael Thorbjornsen and Michael Brennan as well.

A win today for Gerard and that will almost seal the deal. How do you leave off the Tour Championship winner?

All eyes will be on Scheffler, though. A three-shot deficit is nothing for him to overcome.

Saturday August 29, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4393

it's time

There was almost nothing to complain about after last night's 41-3 Ravens pre-season win over the Commanders.

Almost...

The time has come to confront what appears to be a reality. The Ravens might have a kicking problem.

I use the safe words above -- "appears" and "might" -- because that's the best way to handle these fluid situations. Tyler Loop missed two field goals in last night's game. He could go the entire 2026 season without missing two kicks in a game. That's how kicking goes.

But I don't think the Ravens can accept that gamble in faith at this point.

They need to bring in a kicker or two and see what comes of it.

Phil asked the question in the Comments section below and the internet was buzzing with the same topic last night after Loop's two misses from 58 and 53 yards.

And the answer is "yes". It's time.

Now, maybe Loop wards off the veterans and keeps the job. If so, that's cool. But the Ravens owe it to themselves to see if there's someone out there who either pushes Loop to be better or pushes Loop to the unemployment line.

They tried the smart thing, namely, giving him a hug and a pat on the rear end after the season ending miss in Pittsburgh last season.

Kicking is a lot like putting in golf. It's an art. It's also an effort built largely on confidence.

"You can't putt afraid," I tell junior golfers all the time. "You'll never make anything putting afraid."

Kicking is the same way. You can't kick afraid. That last kick, like that last putt, is a thing of the past. Move on. Quickly.

Now, it's easy for me to sit here on a Saturday morning and tell Tyler Loop to forget about that awful kick that cost the Ravens a home playoff game last January. But that's what he has to do in order to be a quality kicker in the NFL. Forget the bad ones. And be ready for the next one.

Two more misses last night on a Chamber of Commerce evening in Baltimore have forced the Ravens hand, unfortunately.

It's time.

Bring in a veteran kicker or two and see if that gets Loop back on track.

As for the game, it was like a varsity vs. junior varsity scrimmage. D.C. was awful. The Ravens were crisp and efficient. I don't know how you rank "the worst pre-season game in franchise history", but I can't imagine sitting through a 41-3 blowout on a warm August evening and not knowing the names of 92% of the players on either team.

But the one name we do know is that of the kicker. For all the wrong reasons.

Carmen asks -- "Drew, just curious if you tried to sign up for the U.S. Senior Amateur Championship that is being held at Baltimore CC this week. I expected to see your name."

DF says -- "You don't 'sign up' for the U.S. Senior Amateur, you have to qualify for it (or otherwise be exempt through high finishes in other national senior events). I did attempt to qualify and was not successful. It's hard to make any national championship. At the location I played in for the qualifier, there were 94 players for 3 spots in the field at Baltimore Country Club. I would have loved to make it, but my golf is not up to that level these days. I'm in a bit of a rut where I'll play 12 or 13 excellent holes but I'll throw in 5 or 6 "off holes" and that becomes the difference between scores of 72-74 and scores of 78-80."

Pat C. asks -- "I'm in a pool where you get four teams randomly picked for you and you have to pick their win total at the beginning of the season and then you have to bet them every game they play during the season. You don't really have to bet, but you have to take the points or give the points and if you pick the right side of the game you get points. Anyway, my four teams are the Steelers, Falcons, Dolphins and Rams. Can you give me some help with records of those 4 teams in your mind?"

DF says -- "That's a cool game you're in. Good luck with it. Pittsburgh will be 7-10. Atlanta will be 8-9. Miami will be 6-11. The L.A. Rams will be 13-4. I hope I'm right!"

B.R. asks -- "For your Q&A column, do you think there's any chance the Orioles fire Craig Albernaz after the season?"

DF says -- "No chance. They're not firing the manager after one season where they either make the playoffs or miss it by two or three games. I have been largely unimpressed with him, but I'm willing to give him the one-season benefit-of-the-doubt. I don't see any way the Orioles fire him."

Joe asks -- "What's your prediction for how Harbaugh and the Giants do in his first season up there?"

DF says -- "I was just having this conversation with someone yesterday at Eagle's Nest. I don't think the NFC East is a murderer's row of high quality teams, so it wouldn't shock me at all to see New York cobble together 8 or 9 wins and be in the playoff hunt right up until the end of the season.

There's no real standout team in the East. Philly will probably be good. Dallas might be good. D.C. will definitely be no good. And that leaves the Giants. If something happens to Hurts in Philly, they're immediately a six win team. Same with Dallas and Prescott. So, anything could happen with the Giants. My official guess is they figure out a way to go 7-10 in John's first season."

Ross G. asks -- "Here's a Mail Bag Q and A for your website. You're given the power to change one rule in baseball and it can't be overruled. Whatever you decide, sticks. What rule are you changing?"

DF says -- "Well, I'm not sure salaries fit under the "rule" criteria, but if so, I'm eliminating the multi-year, long-term guaranteed contract. Gone. Buh-bye. The maximum amount of guaranteed money you can receive is the current season you're playing and the following season. You can sign a 10-year contract with money figures established for all 10 years, but only two of them are fully guaranteed.

If you mean an actual "rule" that needs to be changed, I'd alter the extra innings rule, I guess. A game tied after 9 innings would continue on with "regular baseball" in the 10th and 11th innings, then go to the "runner on 2nd" rule to start the 12th. Putting a runner on 2nd to start the 10th, the way it is now, is kind of dumb. It's like going to penalty kicks right after the 90 minutes are up in soccer instead of having some kind of overtime."

Weber asks -- "Hey DF, any thoughts on Maryland football this season? Can they go to a bowl game?"

DF says -- "I have no idea whatsoever what Maryland might do in football. Sadly, no one else in the DMV knows, either. I assume they'll do what they always do. They'll start out 3-0 against a trio of weak non-conference foes and everyone will wonder if maybe they're going to be decent. And then they'll win 3 or 4 conference games and.......maybe go to some non-descript bowl game that no one watches.

For as much as being in the Big Ten in basketball has been a "decent" lateral move, the move to the Big Ten in football has been completely disastrous for the Terps. I mean, the school gets $55 million a year from the conference TV network, so they're getting the last laugh. But the football program is a total non-factor."

C.J. asks -- "I saw your post on X this week about Boston's debut album. I had no idea they weren't in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame! What a travesty! In your mind who is the worst snub ever for the Hall of Fame? Is it Boston?"

DF says -- "No, it's not Boston, but they're in the Top 10 for sure. There are a lot of incredibly eye-opening, jaw dropping snubs. Like, did you know Bryan Adams isn't in? Neither is REO Speedwagon. The Smiths aren't in, which seems almost unreal given their popularity in the 1980's. Jethro Tull isn't in either. What's wrong with these morons who do the voting?

Billy Squier isn't in. Foghat and .38 Special aren't in. You could open up a new Hall of Fame just comprised of the great bands and artists who aren't in.

How on earth is Three Dog Night not in the Hall of Fame? They had 21 songs in the Billboard Top 40 between 1969 and 1975. 21!! And they also had three number one hits along the way, which is way more than goofy "Donovan" ever accomplished.

Styx? They aren't in, either. What a disgrace.

But the biggest snub of them all has to be Supertramp. They should just close the doors to the place and burn it to the ground if Supertramp isn't in."

Friday August 28, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4392

greed and the crown

This story about Good Good that is dominating the golf world is an incredible lesson in both business, sensitivity and the way things turn out for folks who think they've finally reached the top of their mountain.

The internet golf-content-company got a double dose of gut punch on Thursday when Callaway announced they were terminating their partnership with Good Good and The Golf Channel published a statement later on in the day stating that their upcoming heavily-promoted TV show, The Big Break with Good Good, is not going to be aired after all.

Last week, Sports Business Journal authored a piece hailing Good Good both from a content creator and a business model.

"They've built one of the most recognizable brands in all of golf, world wide," SBJ wrote last week.

Today, they're teetering on the brink of, well, not extinction, but on "rebuilding their brand" if nothing else.

A lot can happen in 7 days.

Once upon a time, a couple of guys who liked to video tape themselves playing golf decided to go to You Tube and post those videos "just to see if anyone would watch".

Their first royalty check from You Tube, if I recall correctly, was for $83.

Five years later, they were getting $25,000 a month from You Tube and other social media companies and had inched their way into Corporate Golf America with their shirts untucked, their hats on backwards and a nicotine pouch in their lip.

As I've noted here several times, I'm not even remotely close to a Good Good "fan", but that's mainly because I'm old, I insist you have your shirt tucked in on the golf course, and your hat -- unless you're a baseball catcher -- is always worn forward, golf course or not.

I'm also not a fan of one other thing Good Good does, but it has nothing to do with them, really. It has everything to do with me.

You almost never see a "foul ball" on Good Good. It's a TV show, after all. So what you see when you watch their product is the finished, polished version of what transpired during filming. You don't see the shanks and the missed two footers and the rounds of 88.

Golf -- real golf, at least -- doesn't work that way. There aren't any do-overs, unless you've hit one out of bounds and you have to go back to the tee and hit your third short from there.

So, to me, Good Good was never more than a TV show. It wasn't real life, as most of the internet isn't, of course. Just ask that kid from Notre Dame football a decade ago.

But to others in golf, an entire generation of new players, Good Good was everything they wanted in golf. Why tuck in your shirt when you can wear it hanging down mid-thigh level? You want to have a few cold beverages while you play and listen to Sweet Home Alabama on your speaker during golf? Have a few more and turn it up louder.

Editor's note: I will say that playing music while on the course is a new age thing I'm in favor of, but that's probably more because I love music and less about it being important to me. But I do like to have music playing while I'm on the course.

Good Good didn't change golf, per se.

That would be hyperbole.

But they did change how a certain demographic goes about enjoying it.

And, yet, with one silly golf club commercial, 20 seconds in all, they're facing a crisis that could deterioate all the work they've done over the last five years.

One thing the people at Good Good are learning this week is perhaps the hardest lesson of all about this great country of ours. Once we turn on you, we're not stopping until you're bleeding uncontrollably.

There are no shaving cuts or nicks in the U.S. We stab you. Over and over and over. Until you're gone.

Callaway partnered with Good Good for the now-famous commercial in which a male Good Good team member aggressively knocked over a female team member who was attempting to touch a golf club of his.

That golf club was built and set to be sold by Callaway all over the world, with the "Good" logo on the soleplate of the club.

Five years ago, they were shooting videos with their cellphone. The next thing you know, one of the biggest golf club makers in the entire friggin' world is building and selling a club with YOUR logo on it.

Then came the commercial where the Good Good guy decked a female golfing companion and all heck broke loose.

That's how all of this happened.

Never mind that over the last 20 years in our country, Snickers showed actress Betty White getting bowled over on a football field and ESPN aired a commercial with a football player decking a business woman (and man) in an office setting.

That was then. This is now.

When Good Good and Callaway released their joint venture promoting a new Good Good driver made by Callaway, the world exploded with disgust and contempt, mainly for the bro-pack at Good Good, but also at Callaway.

The avalanche started with Dick's and Golf Galaxy (owned by the same company) announced they were pulling all Good Good merchandise from their shelves in the wake of "Driver Gate". That's another area where Good Good was flourishing. Their brand has become so popular they could make shirts and head covers and putter covers and other golf trinkets with their logo on it -- and people were actually buying it.

Dick's and Golf Galaxy then quietly pulled out of the TV show on The Golf Channel -- The Big Break -- and that was the beginning of the death march for Good Good.

Callaway, the real villain in all of this, then put their heads together and announced they were parting company with Good Good entirely.

No more driver for sale.

No more nothing.

Good Good is dead, as far as Callaway is concerned.

And then last night's news came down from The Golf Channel about the TV show being canceled.

All because of a 20-second commercial where an attempt at humor came up short.

Humor is a funny thing, no pun intended.

For most of my life, other than a cameo in Wedding Crashers and his character, Ron Burgandy, I've never found Will Ferrell funny in the least. It's all forced, to me. I watched the first episode of "The Hawk" on Netflix last week and decided I'd rather take my dog for a walk instead. It was awful.

But Will Ferrell is one of the most celebrated comic figures in the world. It's obviouly me that doesn't get it. Everyone else seems to get it. That's humor, I guess.

You even see it here at #DMD, from 5,000 feet. I make an occasional joke or quip about a certain musical group that I think is overrated and people respond with vitriol that certainly doesn't match the moment. I think it's funny. They don't think it's funny. So, I don't get nicked. I get stabbed.

I thought the Good Good commercial was funny.

Watching it didn't make me want to go out and deck the next person, female or male, who attempts to touch my driver at Eagle's Nest, in the same way I never considered drinking and driving just because Tiger Woods or, most recently, Tony Romo did it.

But while I thought the Good Good commercial was "funny", I also knew, as soon as I saw it, that I would be in the minority. Our country, in 2026, finds very little funny any longer.

We spend most of our time these days looking for something to be offended about. That's the rounded-to-the-nearest-dollar "we", of course. It might not be you and I looking to be offended over everything, but if you lined up 100 people in downtown Towson today at 12 noon, 88 of them are craving to be offended by something before 5 pm.

The Good Good commericial satisfied that craving in the golf world.

And when they needed someone to support them and "have their back", as the saying goes, they looked around and no one was there.

Three years ago, the Good Good brand was pulling in about $12,000 a month, according to industry records. For two 20-something kids roaming around filming golf content, splitting $144,000 seems like a pretty nifty way to make a living.

But it couldn't stop there. Why make $144,000 when you make $244,000? And why make $244,000 when you can make $1 million?

In late 2025, private equity came along and told the boys their little golf video thing was worth $50 million.

"Just don't do anything stupid to screw it up," a stuffed suit probably told them in a Manhattan boardroom.

And then came Callaway.

"We can make you even bigger and more popular," the club manufacturer probably said.

Then came the commercial and the fallout and the hate.

The "good" news for Good Good? There's really nothing left to go wrong at this point. They've lost all of their friends. Sure, people can stop watching their videos and their internet profits will dry up, but that seems unlikely.

If nothing else, in a way American can also appreciate, the people who follow Good Good and endorse what they do, content wise, will be back today stronger than ever. They're not going to stop watching. In fact, they're likely going to watch more.

But the men and women in that Manhattan boardroom? They're gone. Probably forever.

All because of 20 seconds of humor that wasn't all that funny.

	"Randy On The O's"
Randy Morgan takes #DMD readers through the recent week in Orioles baseball as the Birds try to return to the A.L. playoffs after missing the post-season in 2025.

how many wins will the orioles need?

The most likely Wild Card cutoff is 83. For the Orioles, the real target is probably 84.

Note: This analysis and the simulation behind it were updated after games completed August 26. Baltimore is now 65-69 with 28 games remaining. The schedule-aware Monte Carlo puts 83 as the most likely WC3 cutoff, while 84 is the better practical target for the Orioles.

Somehow, the Orioles are still hanging around the Wild Card race.

They spent July selling off major-league players, traded Adley Rutschman to a division rival and entered the final five weeks of the season below .500. And yet, because much of the American League has apparently decided that 2026 was a good year to embrace mediocrity, the O’s remain very much alive in the Wild Card race.

That raises a fairly simple question with a much less simple answer:

How many games do the Orioles actually need to win to make the playoffs?

The answer from this analysis is probably around 83.

That is not quite the same thing as saying the final American League Wild Card will belong to an 83-win team. A custom simulation of the remaining schedule now puts 83 wins as the single most likely WC3 winning total, with both a median and mode of 83.

But there is an important distinction between asking where the cutoff will land and asking what record the Orioles should feel reasonably confident will get them into October.

At 83 wins, they would still be vulnerable to a tiebreaker scenario. The Birds have already lost season-series tiebreakers against Texas and Seattle.

At 84, the odds begin to shift meaningfully in their favor.

That makes 84 the best practical target.

The Wild Card Race Is Bad But The O’s Task Is Not Easy --

Through August 27, the Orioles were 65-69 with 28 games remaining.

Normally a team four games below .500 with 28 remaining would be spending September evaluating prospects and figuring out tee times.

Not this year.

The contenders surrounding the O’s have been remarkably unimpressive. Cleveland is 68-66, Texas is 66-68, Toronto is 65-70, Minnesota and Seattle are both 64-70 and Baltimore sits at 65-69.

Even the division races complicate matters. Houston leads the AL West at 66-67. The White Sox lead the Central at 70-63. That means the Orioles are not merely trying to chase one team for one position. The Central and West division races will eventually spit losing contenders back into the Wild Card pool.

If Cleveland wins the Central, for example, Chicago could suddenly become an 83-plus-win Wild Card team. If Seattle catches Houston in the West, Houston becomes another competitor for one of the three Wild Card positions.

The Orioles have quite a few teams to worry about.

The good news is that almost nobody in that pile has played particularly well. Houston and Texas are hovering around .500, Toronto, Minnesota, Seattle and Baltimore are below it, and even Cleveland is only two games over.

There is no obvious 90-win juggernaut lurking immediately ahead of them.

The bad news is that there are a lot of teams.

The Projection Systems Point Toward the Low 80s --

FanGraphs' projections provide a useful baseline.

The updated schedule-aware model, using FanGraphs Depth Charts rest-of-season rates, projects Chicago to finish at 83.6 wins and Cleveland at 82.9. Houston, Seattle and Texas cluster around 80 to 81, while Toronto and Minnesota project to 79.1 and 78.3.

The Orioles project to 79.4.

The exact Orioles number isn't the most important part. Projection systems are not destiny, especially over 30 games. There are several teams expected to finish somewhere between 79 and 82 wins.

Once you account for the uncertainty around each of those projections, it becomes fairly easy for one or two of them to exceed the mean by two or three victories.

Different FanGraphs models tell basically the same story. ATC projected the Orioles to 78.9 wins. OOPSY had them at 79.3. A season-to-date model came in at 78.4. So this isn't one pessimistic projection dragging the Orioles down.

The consensus is that the O’s are roughly a 79-win team if everyone simply performs as expected, which obviously won’t be enough. The Orioles need to beat their projection by about four wins to reach the first total where their playoff position becomes legitimate.

Maybe if they can keep hitting the way they did in the St. Louis series, they can make that happen.

83 Is the Most Likely Cutoff --

To get a better answer than simply staring at projected standings, I ran a one-million-season Monte Carlo simulation of the American League race.

The methodology was relatively straightforward. Each team's actual record through August 26 served as the starting point. I used FanGraphs Depth Charts rest-of-season winning percentages as the talent baseline, then simulated the actual remaining schedule game by game, including direct matchups between contenders and a modest home-field advantage.

The model then determined each division champion and awarded the three Wild Cards to the best remaining records.

Repeat that one million times and we get a distribution of the final Wild Card place winning total.

The result: Wild Card #3 Wins Probability

80 3.0%

81 12.8%

82 25.0%

83 26.7%

84 18.2%

85 9.1%

86 3.5%

The mean Wild Card cutoff was 82.92 wins.

The median was 83.

The mode was 83.

So if the question is simply, "What is the single most likely final record of the team occupying WC3?"

The answer is 83 wins.

There is approximately a 41% chance the cutoff lands at 82 or lower. That rises to 68% at 83, 86% at 84 and 95% at 85.

That is considerably lower than the traditional mid-to-high 80s total we normally associate with playoff contention.

The American League deserves the credit for that. Or blame. Take your pick.

Why 83 Isn't Safe Enough For The O’s --

An 83-win cutoff does not necessarily mean an 83-win Orioles team gets in.

In the same simulation, the O’s position relative to the WC3 line at various final totals looked like this:

Orioles Wins Outright Above Tied at Line Below Line

80 wins 0.8% 5.1% 94.1%

81 wins 6.7% 17.2% 76.2%

82 wins 25.4% 27.1% 47.5%

83 wins 53.8% 23.7% 22.5%

84 wins 78.5% 13.3% 8.1%

85 wins 92.4% 5.4% 2.2%

86 wins 97.9% 1.6% 0.5%

Rather than randomly award tied Wild Card spots, these numbers separate outcomes where the Orioles are outright above the line, tied at the line and below it.

The O’s already lost the season series to Texas, four games to two.

Seattle owns the tiebreaker as well, four games to three.

Those are two of the most credible competitors in the race.

There is no longer a Game 163, so if the Orioles and Rangers finish tied for the last postseason spot, Texas advances. Same with the Mariners in a two-team tie.

Cleveland currently leads the season series 3-1 with three games remaining, meaning the O’s would need to sweep all three to win that tiebreaker.

Toronto leads the season series 4-3 with six games left, so the O’s need to win at least four of those six to take the head-to-head advantage.

So reaching 82 and hoping everything breaks correctly is not likely to work.

82 keeps the Orioles alive. 83 makes them outright clear of the WC3 line more often than not.

84 gives them substantially more breathing room.

That is why I would call 84 the practical target.

Cleveland and Seattle Are the Biggest Threats --

If there is a reason this race climbs toward 83 or 84 rather than collapsing to 80 or 81, schedule strength is probably it.

Cleveland is particularly dangerous. The Guardians are 68-66, and FanGraphs projects them as a .507 team the rest of the way. They also have one of the stronger positions in the race and several direct games against other contenders.

They still have plenty of games against Kansas City, the Athletics and Angels. They also play Toronto, Detroit, Baltimore and Minnesota, which creates direct leverage in the standings. Every Cleveland win in one of those games is automatically a loss for another contender.

Seattle may be even more interesting. The Mariners are only 64-70, but FanGraphs projects them to play .549 baseball the rest of the season, by far the strongest forward-looking rate among the bubble teams. Their closing schedule also includes plenty of games against the Athletics, Angels and Rockies.

Seattle has been bad enough that the Orioles cannot simply assume that projection comes true.

A 64-70 team has generally earned its record. But this is exactly the kind of schedule that can turn a team that appears nearly dead in late August into an 82 or 83-win club by the end of September.

And remember, the Mariners own the tiebreaker over the O’s.

Toronto Might Be the Sleeper --

The Blue Jays are the other team that worries me.

FanGraphs is not particularly bullish on the Jays, with the updated model projecting them around 79 wins, but betting markets are treating them as a more serious playoff threat.

That can be explained by their schedule as well. Toronto still has six games remaining against the Orioles and currently leads the season series 4-3. Those six games could determine much more than just the standings.

If the teams remain close, every Orioles win simultaneously improves their record and damages Toronto's. It could also determine the first postseason tiebreaker. That makes those late September games effectively worth much more than a random matchup against a non- contender.

The O’s may eventually have the opportunity to eliminate one of its competitors itself.

They just have to still be alive when those games arrive.

The Orioles’ Remaining Schedule --

The Orioles' remaining schedule looked almost perfectly divided into two parts when this analysis began.

First came nine games against: St. Louis, Oakland and Colorado.

Then the difficulty level rises substantially.

The final 22 games were scheduled against Boston, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Toronto, the Mets and Yankees.

That makes the current stretch extraordinarily important.

Before the St. Louis series, Baltimore needed to finish 21-10 to reach 84 wins. A 7-2 record against St. Louis, Oakland and Colorado would reduce the final requirement to 14- 8 against that much tougher group.

Go only 5-4 against those three weaker opponents and suddenly the Orioles would need to play .727 baseball across the last 22 games just to get to 84.

That is the difference between difficult and nearly impossible.

The first two wins in St. Louis were therefore more than just another pair of victories. Baltimore is now 65-69 with 28 games remaining, meaning the task has improved to 18-10 for 83 and 19- 9 for 84.

They have started the soft portion 2-1.

Now they need to keep banking wins.

So What Do the Orioles Actually Need? --

Here is how I would define the targets:

81 wins: Needs substantial help.

82 wins: Live, but likely needs a favorable standings or tiebreaker outcome.

83 wins: The most likely WC3 threshold and a legitimate playoff position.

84 wins: Probably enough and the preferred target.

85 wins: A very strong position.

For the Orioles, 84 is the number to target.

Before the St. Louis series, that required a 21-10 finish. After winning the first two games and losing on Thursday, it is now 19-9.

That is still a .670 winning percentage over the final 28 games from a team that has spent almost the entire season below .500.

Nobody should mistake this analysis for an argument that the Orioles are suddenly likely to make the playoffs. Betting markets still price them around +500 to make the field, a raw implied probability of roughly 16.7%.

The Orioles put themselves in this position by spending five months playing mediocre baseball, then made the climb even harder by selling at the deadline.

But those are sunk costs now.

The question is whether this bizarrely weak American League has left them one final opening. It apparently has.

They don't need to suddenly become a 100-win-caliber team. They probably don't even need the 87 or 88 wins we might normally associate with a Wild Card. The ridiculous part is that after everything that has happened this season, that number is still within reach.

Now they need to stay hot and win the games.

Check out more Orioles, Ravens and soccer analysis from Randy at: https://dualeights.com/

faith in sports

If you're the father of an impressionable teenage daughter like me, this video, today, is for you. And her, hopefully.

I have already forwarded the link to my daughter's phone and will make it a point this afternoon to ask her if she watched it and what she thought about it. We'll hopefully have a great conversation about Avah Armour, a volleyball player from the University of Central Florida.

One of the great things about showcasing Christian athletes here at #DMD is they come from all walks of life and all sports. Male, female, superstars, 3rd stringers. Baseball, football, soccer and today's entry, from the world of college volleyball.

This young woman that's featured today is a total rock star! Please pass this video along to your son or daughter and remind them it's not how many followers you have that makes you who you are.

Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of #DMD and our "Faith in Sports" segment here every Friday.

Thursday August 27, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4391

still in it

It was, let's say, unconventional, but a win is a win is a win.

The O's squandered a 7-0 lead in St. Louis last night, only to rebound with a run in the top of the 9th to turn back the Cardinals, 8-7.

With a number of the other A.L. wild card hopefuls losing on Wednesday, the Birds wake up this morning just two games in back of Cleveland in the loss column. The Guardians are 68-66 and currently own the third and final wild card spot, while the O's come in at 65-68.

That 3-game series between Cleveland and Baltimore at OPACY on September 7, 8, 9 is potentially going to help decide the playoff race.

Sure, the Birds still have work to do between now and then, but it stands to reason they're going to feast on their next two opponents, the Athletics and Rockies, and should return home for a 4-game series with Boston in no worse shape than they are right now.

You wanted meaningful September baseball, remember?

Well, you have some coming your way.

Meanwhile, Pete Alonso continued his assault on the mythical second-half MVP award last night with his 32nd homer of the season in the 8-7 win over the Cardinals.

As I noted on Twitter last night, if the Orioles were any good -- I mean, really good, like the division leader -- there's high probability Alonso would be in the A.L. MVP discussion with the kind of season he's having and is on pace to produce. At this rate, Alonso looks like a safe bet to ecplise 40 homers. He's had a heckuva debut season for the Birds.

For those interested in this sort of thing, here's a look at the next three series' for the A.L. wild card hopefuls.

Orioles (65-68) -- at Athletics (3), at Rockies (3), vs. Boston (4)

Cleveland (68-66) -- vs. Kansas City (3), vs. Toronto (3), vs. Detroit (4)

Texas (66-68) -- at Milwaukee (3), vs. Athletics (3), vs. Tampa Bay (4)

Toronto (65-69) -- vs. Seattle (3), at Cleveland (3), at Kansas City (3)

Seattle and Minnesota are now both 64-70 and starting to play their way out of the race.

It's kind of remarkable to see to see the continued pushback and fallout of the Good Good / Callaway commercial, as yesterday Dicks/Golf Galaxy quietly "announced" (by removing everything Good Good related from their shelves) a boycott of sorts aimed at the popular internet-based golf content company.

Years from now, this story might be making the rounds in marketing and economics classes throughout college USA, as professors examine how a business with a valuation of over $50 million threw it all away thanks to one ill-timed and insensitive commercial cross-branding a golf product with an industry giant like Callaway.

The irony of it all?

The real goat in this (and we're not talking G.O.A.T. like Tom Brady or Tiger Woods, we're talking "goat") is most definitely Callaway. If anyone at all is mostly responsible for this whole saga, it's them.

My friend Kevin Van Valkenburg of the Fried Egg golf website calls the whole thing "an own goal", which is an amazing sports-related analogy. In other words, this story was totally created and is the fault of Good Good and Callaway. It's a business own goal the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time.

Has there been an overreaction to it all? Of course. It's what we do here. We shoot first and ask questions later.

The commercial, by the way, was intended to be a spoof on the movie "Obsession". It wasn't really just a golf commercial about a new driver Callaway was launching as a co-branding effort with Good Good. It was supposed to be funny and a nod in the direction of the movie, where anyone who touches the guy's driver winds up mysteriously getting obsessed with it in the same way he's obsessed it with it.

But there are two problems. Or "were" two problems.

One, if you didn't see the movie, you have no idea about the connection and the thematic attempt at linking the golf club with the movie.

Two, in the commercial, one quick moment has a guy shoving a woman to the ground as she nearly takes his driver out of the bag.

That's where the fury and the public shaming started. Commercial concept: good. Using violence to get the message across: Not good.

The other part of this that no one's talking about because it's awkward and seems a bit like piling on is Good Good sorta-kinda asked for this kind of reaction based on the way they comport themselves in their normal day-to-day on-camera lives.

They're frat brothers and sorority sisters, basically, in the way they dress, talk, carry themselves and promote their business.

"We do things the way we want to do them and you either get in line with us and follow along or get out of the way."

That's not a direct quote or a marketing slogan. That's just the way they come across to me whenever I happen to stumble onto their content. As I wrote here over the weekend, I appreciate what they've done for golf and I think they've built an incredibly successful niche business within the golf industry.

I'm not really a "fan" of Good Good per se. And while I do see the good they do, I also see the collateral damage that comes along with them.

It's sad to say "Maybe they had this coming to them" but maybe they had this coming to them.

All that said...Callaway is still the goat in this whole thing.

Someone at Callaway -- probably multiple people, in fact -- saw this commercial prior to its release and said, "Approved".

How could that have happened?

Maybe it happened because someone at Callaway wanted it to happen.

Perhaps they wanted the drama.

No publicity is bad publicity, or so they say.

Is there any chance at all this whole thing helps them sell more Good Good / Callaway drivers? In the end, could the benefit outweigh the negative publicity?

I don't know the answer to that.

Maybe they locked themselves into a deal with Good Good and quickly realized a bunch of 20-somethings with their shirts untucked yelling, "Bruuhhhhhh, look how far I carried that drive just now" wasn't exactly the best way to sell their wildly overpriced and overhyped golf clubs.

I don't know...

But something doesn't add up. I just can't imagine multiple professional adults sat in a room, saw this commercial and said, "Yeah, let's run it. No one will have a problem with a guy decking a girl in the commercial."

Yesterday, one of Good Good's founders, Garrett Clark, authored a bizarre 8-minute internet vido apology where he basically tried to blame the company's "marketing team" for the whole fiasco.

Sometimes it's better to just say the obvious. "Hey man, we screwed up, period. Should have hit the hard 7 iron instead of the soft 8 there. We messed up, big time."

Clark and his other founding partners were in the commercial, after all. Clark, in fact, was the guy who ran over and pushed the woman to the ground.

He was in the commercial he says was the fault of the marketing department. There was never a moment where he said to the marketing folks, "Are we sure this is good for our brand?"

Who wouldn't have watched that commercial in advance of its release and said, "Yeah, I'm just not sure the guy decking the girl is something we should keep in there"??

But even more important: If you participated in it, didn't you feel like something might be off?

I'm doing the math and it's not adding up.

There's more to this whole thing than just stupidity.

---

orioles minor league player of the week

It’s time to highlight the O’s farm system a little bit and announce our DMD Orioles’ Minor League Player of the Week. This week several prospects made this a very difficult decision, but ultimately, we have selected Frederick Keys’ RHP Kyson Witherspoon.

Witherspoon, 22, produced another terrific start this week, but it was his best yet in the organization. The righty tossed five shutout, hitless innings while striking out eight batters. He did need 89 pitches to get through those five innings, but it was another solid start for him.

Acquired as part of the Adley Rutschman trade with the Red Sox, Witherspoon has posted a 1.26 ERA over three starts since joining the organization. Over those three starts, he has struck out 20 batters over 14.1 innings pitched.

He has walked more batters than I would like to see (10 over those 14.1 innings), but with the strikeouts and the fact he has held opponents to a .184 batting average over that stretch, he is getting away with the walks.

In his first season of professional baseball, Witherspoon apparently likes black and orange much better than red and blue. While in Boston’s organization, he had posted a 4.78 ERA over 17 starts this season over 75.1 innings pitched.

Currently ranked as the 12th best prospect in the O’s system by MLB Pipeline, the 2025 first round selection by Boston out of the University of Oklahoma is very intriguing. Obviously, you can see by the walk numbers that his command needs some fine-tuning, but perhaps the Orioles’ scouts and staff saw something in his mechanics that they believe can be corrected.

He’ll likely have at least two more starts before the minor league season ends, though Frederick has already qualified for the playoffs, so he may get an extra start or two to continue to show his new organization what he can do.

Be sure to check back in all season as we will continue to highlight top performers from the O’s farm system!

This Orioles Minor League Player of the Week contribution was submitted by Josh Michael.

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here for his thoughts on the purple birds.

Every season it’s easy to sit down to make predictions and just pencil in most of the same teams into the playoffs.

The reality is, since 2002 when the multiple wildcard format was introduced, roughly 50% of the playoff field turns over on average every year.

That has remained consistent even with the additional playoff teams added starting in 2020.

In order to figure out which teams will be back and which teams will drop, we need to ask which parts of a team’s previous season are actually likely to repeat. Passing efficiency tends to carry over better than defensive dominance. Point differential tells us more than raw record.

Extreme turnover margins and one-score records deserve skepticism. Schedule strength has to account for who opponents are expected to be now, not what their records were a year ago.

Division strength also has to come into consideration. Since each division winner makes the playoffs, we often end up with a weaker team getting in ahead of more deserving teams simply because they had a poor division (we’re looking at you Carolina).

Using that framework, these are the three 2025 playoff teams in each conference most likely to fall out, and the three most likely replacements.

NFC: Three Teams Most Likely to Fall Out --

1. Carolina Panthers

Carolina is the clearest dropout candidate in either conference.

The Panthers won the NFC South at 8-9 despite being outscored by 69 points.

They ranked 25th in total DVOA, 25th on offense and 22nd on defense. Their EPA rankings were similarly unimpressive. There is no hidden elite unit carrying the projection.

That makes Carolina fundamentally different from teams such as Chicago or Green Bay. Those teams have specific strengths worth trusting. The Panthers mostly benefited from winning a division with an extraordinarily low threshold. They may improve this season and still fail to repeat.

The schedule does them no favors either. Sharp ranks Carolina’s slate the third hardest in football, while Clay projects only 6.3 wins and ranks the roster 26th. That does not mean the Panthers cannot become a better team.

It means they probably need to become substantially better just to reproduce an 8-9 division title.

Dropout confidence: Very high

2. Chicago Bears

Chicago is the purest regression candidate on the board.

The Bears went 11-6, and their offense was legitimately good. They ranked ninth in offensive DVOA and seventh in offensive EPA. Though the improvement was spurred by the arrival of offensive guru Ben Johnson, much of their success warrants some skepticism, especially on the other side of the ball.

Chicago finished plus-22 in turnover differential, the best mark in the NFL. A league-high 18.2 percent of opposing drives ended with a Bears takeaway. On drives that did not end in turnovers, Chicago ranked 27th in points allowed per possession.

That is quite a difference.

The Bears also produced six comeback wins in the final two minutes. Some teams repeatedly execute well late. Nobody should pretend every one-score game is decided by a random- number generator. But when you combine a massive turnover margin, a mediocre defense and an extraordinary run of late-game victories, the regression alarm bells start sounding.

The schedule gets tougher too. Sharp ranks Chicago’s 2026 slate seventh hardest.

The Bears can improve as a normal defense and keep a good offense yet still drop from 11 victories to nine.

In fact, that may be the most likely outcome.

Dropout confidence: High

3. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay is the least comfortable selection among the NFC fallers.

The Packers have the one thing that is generally trustworthy year to year, a good offense. They ranked sixth in offensive DVOA and fourth in offensive EPA last season. But they just edge San Francisco on this list because the 49ers finished second in offensive DVOA.

Aside from the offense, there are some warning signs for Green Bay. The Packers went 9-7-1 with only a plus-31 point differential. The defense ranked 19th in DVOA and 22nd in EPA. Their projected schedule has become considerably more difficult, with Sharp now ranking it 24th.

Micah Parsons’ recovery from ACL and meniscus injuries also creates uncertainty near the start of the season.

This is not a prediction that Green Bay falls apart.

Clay still ranks the Packers 13th overall and projects 9.5 wins.

It is a bubble-team argument.

In a conference with Detroit positioned to rebound and Dallas possessing a strong offensive foundation, Green Bay has less room for defensive mediocrity and early-season injury complications.

Nine or 10 wins should keep the Packers squarely in contention.

It may not guarantee they get one of the seven spots.

Dropout confidence: Medium

NFC: Three Teams Most Likely to Return --

1. Detroit Lions

Detroit is the easiest newcomer pick in the NFC.

The Lions missed the playoffs at 9-8 despite finishing third in total DVOA.

They ranked seventh in offensive DVOA, ninth on defense and outscored opponents by 68 points. FTN noted that their 21.4 percent DVOA was one of the best marks ever produced by a team that failed to reach the postseason.

There is no elaborate rebound story required. They already played like a playoff team last year and now get the easiest projected schedule in football according to both Sharp and Clay. Clay ranks the Lions fourth overall and projects 12 wins.

Teams with strong point differential, top-five overall efficiency, a good offense and favorable future schedule are exactly the teams we should expect to bounce back.

It would be more surprising to see the Lions miss the playoffs a second consecutive season than to see them bounce back with a strong season.

Newcomer confidence: Very high

2. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is a bet on one side of the roster staying good while the other stops being historically awful.

The Cowboys ranked eighth in offensive DVOA and fifth in offensive EPA last season. Their defense finished 32nd in both DVOA and EPA. The useful part for projection is that Dallas does not need the defense to become good. It simply needs the defense to stop being among the worst in football.

If the offense remains around the top eight and the defense climbs into the low 20s, that alone could swing several games. Current projections are even more optimistic. Clay ranks Dallas ninth overall, fifth on offense and 16th on defense while projecting 10.1 wins.

That defensive projection may prove ambitious, and the schedule is a real obstacle, as Sharp ranks it the fifth hardest. However, their baseline performance on offense gives the Cowboys a much better starting point than asking a great defense to drag a broken offense back into contention.

Newcomer confidence: Medium-high

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is the least compelling statistical newcomer and perhaps the best reminder that playoff forecasting is not the same exercise as ranking teams one through 32.

The Buccaneers went 8-9 last season with a minus-31 point differential. They ranked 20th in total DVOA, 18th on offense and 18th on defense.

Nothing there screams hidden contender, but because of their division, Tampa has a clear route back to the playoffs.

If Carolina is the most likely NFC playoff team to fall out, somebody still has to win the NFC South. Tampa is the most plausible replacement. Clay projects the Buccaneers for nine wins and has them winning the division.

Could Minnesota be better on a neutral field? Absolutely.

Could another NFC wild-card candidate have a higher ceiling? Sure.

But an automatic division berth changes the equation. The Buccaneers do not need to become one of the NFC’s seven best teams by pure roster strength. They just need to be better than Carolina, Atlanta and New Orleans.

Newcomer confidence: Medium

The Two Toughest Calls --

The AFC decision between Denver and Houston is extremely close. Houston actually has the more concerning regression profile.

The Texans ranked 23rd in offensive EPA and 19th in offensive DVOA while finishing first in defensive EPA, second in defensive DVOA and plus-17 in turnover differential. That is a lot of value concentrated in the less stable areas of team performance.

Denver, by contrast, has the better offense, easier projected schedule and no positive turnover luck to surrender.

If I were ranking which team’s 2025 performance is most likely to regress, I would put Houston ahead of Denver, but that is not exactly the question here.

If Jacksonville drops in the AFC South, Houston’s path to the division title becomes easier. Kansas City’s expected rebound applies direct pressure to Denver in an AFC West that already sent the Chargers to the postseason.

The other difficult omission is Indianapolis. The Colts went only 8-9 last season but finished fifth in total DVOA, fifth in offensive DVOA, ninth in offensive EPA and plus-54 in point differential.

FTN called their 18.9 percent DVOA the best ever by a losing team in its database. That is an enormous rebound signal, but they have a weaker quarterback situation than the other contenders.

Baltimore, Cincinnati and Kansas City all offer clearer answers at the position that matters most. Indianapolis may have the underlying team-quality case to jump any of them, but projecting that leap requires more faith in the quarterback situation than I am willing to place ahead of Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow or Patrick Mahomes.

Check out more Ravens, Orioles and Soccer analysis from Randy Morgan at: dualeights.com

Wednesday August 26, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4390

wednesday q & a

The O's are.........gaining ground.

At least for one night they did, anyway.

The Birds romped over the Cardinals in St. Louis last night, 13-1, while a few of the other A.L. wild card contenders lost, including Texas and Toronto. Cleveland and surging Seattle were winners on Tuesday evening.

So Baltimore opened that crucial 9-game road trip with a win. We talked here this week about the need to go 7-2 in those 9 games. You can't win all 9 unless you win that first one. Right?

We've had an inordinate amount of e-mails come in over the last couple of days so we thought we'd tackle those today, in addition to our picks for this week's PGA Tour event at East Lake GC in Atlanta.

Those of you who played Wyndham Clark last week in St. Louis can thank me whenever you get the opportunity.

Russ C. asks -- "Hey Drew, just curious, what do you make of today's (Tuesday, Aug. 25) announcement that the Big Break TV series on Golf Channel is being delayed because a sponsor pulled out due to the Good Good TV commercial?"

DF says -- "The outcry isn't totally unexpected, but I guess I'm a little surprised they've pulled the show from the programming rotation for a week. I assume they're trying to appease the sponsor and maybe let some of the heat die down a little at the same time. We live in a society these days where people deal with disatisfaction by using extreme measures.

I don't know who the sponsor is that dropped out of the show, but that's very typical of the USA in 2026. "Don't like it? Cancel it." Or at least attempt to cancel it.

And while I get that the commercial was done in poor taste, I do have to wonder this. Why not have the woman be the one who got upset that her boyfriend touched her driver and have her run over and deck him? I actually think that would have been funny. Whether that would have generated the same "heat" as the guy decking the woman isn't known, but I seriously doubt that it would have.

Anyway, in the end, the people at Callaway and Good Good had to know the commercial was right on the border of "acceptable" and "good taste" and they went with it anyway, so they sorta-kinda deserve whatever they're getting at this point."

James asks -- "Drew, just wondering who your six picks would be for the American Presidents Cup team? And how do you like our chances this year?"

DF says -- "The U.S. has never lost (or tied) a Presidents Cup on home soil so I can't imagine it happens this time around. It is interesting, though, that Geoff Ogilvy (International captain) and his company did the major redesign at Medinah CC last year. So if anyone knows the new nooks and crannies of the place, it's Ogilvy.

I like their team thus far. Scheffler, Cam Young, Clark, Burns, Morikawa and Henley. That's a great group. Who would I add? Well, there are three no brainers; Schauffele, Cantlay and J.J. Spaun. Schauffele and Cantlay have been an awesome "team competition" pairing so they are a natural add to the squad. Spaun has played very well over the last year and showed he's ready to step up in events like this through his decent play at last year's Ryder Cup.

My other three players are a little bit unconventional, perhaps. I'd one million percent add Chris Gotterup. It's kind of amazing he's won three times in the last year and isn't on the team as an automatic qualifier. But anyway, Gotterup is a definite addition in my book. My other two guys are Michael Thorbjornsen and Michael Brennan. Both of them have won in the last month or so and we need to start grooming some younger Americans for the Ryder Cup.

I realize I'm leaving off Justin Thomas, who has played decently this season. I'm also leaving off Akshay Bhatia, who looked like a shoo-in to make the team until he tailed off over the summer. But I really like Thor and Brennan. I think they're two Americans who will make multiple Ryder Cup appearances in their careers.

By the way, my guess is J.T. and Bhatia will be added to the team by captain Brandt Snedeker and Thor and Brennan will be watching at home like the rest of us. But you asked who I would add. I suspect Gotterup, Spaun, Xander and Cantlay will be added by Sneds in addition to Thomas and Bhatia."

Dan in Elkton asks -- "I have two questions for your regular mailbag column. 1. Did you see RUSH in Philadelphia last week? What was your overall impression of the experience if you did? 2. What will happen first, Rafael Palmerio enters the Baltimore Orioles Hall of Fame or Justin Tucker enters the Ravens Ring of Honor?"

DF says -- "I did not see RUSH in Philly but several of my friends went and they said it was fantastic. Based on the setlist, I wish I would have gone! They opened with Xanadu, which is a great song. And they played the album "Moving Pictures" front to back, which means my all-time favorite RUSH song, Camera Eye, was played live. That said, I'll be at the Tuesday, October 27 show in D.C. and can't wait to see it!!

Good question about Tucker and Raffy. But I don't see either of the getting in. I know you asked "what happens first?" but I just don't see it happening.

But.........

If you pressed me to pick one, I'd probably say Palmeiro. The stigma of steroid use in baseball seems to diminish with each passing year. At some point in the next 10 years, the O's will realize no one cares that Palmeiro used steroids throughout his career, including, presumably, in Baltimore.

And even though Justin Tucker was never criminally charged for any of his stuff, the Ravens have thousands and thousands of female fans who would be up in arms if the former All Pro kicker is "celebrated" with a lifetime achievement award like a Ring of Honor selection."

Cory asks -- "Hey Drew, can you settle a friendly wager with some golfing buddies? If the PGA Tour played at Rocky Point would the winning score be higher or lower than 30 under par for 4 rounds? Thanks and Go Hall!"

DF says -- "I'm going to assume they'd make #12 and #16 par 4's and still say "higher" than 30-under par. Even with just two par 5's (#5 and #15), those guys would torch Rocky Point. Someone would be 9-under every day. There'd be multiple rounds of 59 in the event.

This is the same discussion we have once in a while about Mount Pleasant. Rocky Point just isn't long enough to challenge PGA Tour players. They'd be hitting a wedge (or less) into every hole on the course, similar to Mount Pleasant. The only potential small saving-grace would be the par 3 holes at Rocky, which might require guys to hit -- gasp! -- an 8 iron or so."

---

tour championship picks

It all comes down to one tournament for ALL of the marbles.

Ten million bucks goes to the winner of the Tour Championship at East Lake GC, which begins tomorrow.

The final event features only 30 players, so you're getting to a point where any of those 30 could win and you'd say, "Eh, yeah, that seems about right."

But we've dug in and come up with four wagers to play and two "longshots" if you will, which we deem any guy from 19 to 30 on the list.

We're shying away from Top 30 wagers this week. The odds are simply not there. But feel free to sprinkle in Top 10 and Top 20 wagers.

It feels like Patrick Cantlay is closing in on a win and not just because he finished second in St. Louis last week. His data over the last couple of months in all of the important strokes-gained categories has been excellent. He's certainly trending up. Oh, and he's won at East Lake before. He comes into the event at +1600 to win, which seems a little ambitious, we think, but you should still be able to get him at a decent number for Top 10 (+300) and Top 20 wagers (+115).

We think Cantlay is a great Top 10 wager this week.

There's no sense in shying away from Wyndham Clark, so we won't do it. He's been on a real heater over the last three months and his play in St. Louis last week, despite a shaky front nine on Sunday, was reason enough to stick with him this week in Atlanta. He's at +1600 to win and +285 to finish Top 10. I wrote here a few weeks back that I thought Clark was the one guy who could take down Scottie. We'll see.

How about a Clark/Cantlay Top 10 parlay? That seems reasonable, huh?

I realize Scottie Scheffler didn't have his best stuff last week and I also know you're not going to get rich wagering on him this week at +350. That said, I have a hunch he'll put it all together this week and could very well win the event in the same fashion he won in Memphis two weeks ago.

I know it's a bit unconventional to wager "win" bets on two different players, but in Scheffler's case, I'd parlay a win for Scottie along with a Top 5 or Top 10 wager on the guy below. I think there's a great chance Scottie wins.

But I also think it would be wise to place a win and Top 10 wager on Chris Gotterup this week. He is simply there, time and time again, every week. He's now officially rich enough that nerves shouldn't really be a factor for him. Gotterup is a legit, big time player now and is listed at a great price (+2400) for the season finale.

I think the event comes down to a Sunday dual between Scheffler and Clark with Scottie prevailing.

Now, for the two longshots, if you will.

Ryan Gerard at +4200 is very inviting. He's in a similar spot to where Ryan Fox was at the British Open in terms of being on the outside looking in but dangerous enough to come out of nowhere and contend to win. Gerard is having a great year. A win in Atlanta wouldn't be all that shocking to me.

Gary Woodland is perhaps the best value in the event at +6000. He's coming in having played very well in St. Louis and wasn't even really planning on being in Atlanta until his excellent play on Sunday got him inside the Top 30 and into the event at East Lake GC. Woodland's ball striking is always on point. If his putter behaves this week, he could make some real noise.

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here for his thoughts on the purple birds.

Every season it’s easy to sit down to make predictions and just pencil in most of the same teams into the playoffs.

The reality is, since 2002 when the multiple wildcard format was introduced, roughly 50% of the playoff field turns over on average every year.

That has remained consistent even with the additional playoff teams added starting in 2020.

In order to figure out which teams will be back and which teams will drop, we need to ask which parts of a team’s previous season are actually likely to repeat. Passing efficiency tends to carry over better than defensive dominance. Point differential tells us more than raw record.

Extreme turnover margins and one-score records deserve skepticism. Schedule strength has to account for who opponents are expected to be now, not what their records were a year ago.

Division strength also has to come into consideration. Since each division winner makes the playoffs, we often end up with a weaker team getting in ahead of more deserving teams simply because they had a poor division (we’re looking at you Carolina).

Using that framework, these are the three 2025 playoff teams in each conference most likely to fall out, and the three most likely replacements.

AFC: Three Teams Most Likely to Fall Out --

1. Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is the easiest call in the conference because almost every underlying indicator was less impressive than the 10-7 record.

The Steelers finished 2025 with a point differential of only plus-10. Their offense ranked 16th in DVOA and 14th in EPA per play, while the defense was good without being dominant enough to drag the rest of the team into contender territory.

That is much closer to a .500 profile than a comfortable playoff team.

The larger concern is what comes next.

Mike Tomlin is gone after nearly two decades of continuity. Mike McCarthy is taking over. Aaron Rodgers is entering his age-42 season. ESPN’s August projections rank Pittsburgh’s overall roster 18th and its offense 27th, with the defense still carrying most of the weight. That is not a particularly stable way to win.

A great defense can cover a lot of problems in one season, but defensive performance tends to fluctuate more than offense from year to year. Pittsburgh does not have the kind of passing- game foundation that makes another 10-win season feel like the default.

The schedule is manageable, but the division should be much less forgiving. The Ravens are positioned for a significant rebound, and Cincinnati has Joe Burrow back with a rebuilt defense. Pittsburgh does not need to crater to miss the playoffs.

Going from 10-7 to 8-9 would probably be enough.

Dropout confidence: High

2. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville requires a more careful argument because the Jaguars were genuinely good last season.

They went 13-4, outscored opponents by 138 points and finished sixth in total DVOA. Their weighted DVOA improved to third, meaning this was not merely a team piling up early wins before fading.

So no, Jacksonville was not fraudulent.

The question is whether the particular formula that produced 13 wins is likely to repeat.

The Jaguars ranked only 14th in offensive DVOA and 12th in offensive EPA. Their largest advantage came on defense, where they finished third in EPA per play, and in turnover margin, where they finished plus-13.

Both rankings could be in for some regression.

Elite defense absolutely matters, but defense historically carries over less reliably than offense. Turnover margin is even less stable, particularly when a team reaches the extremes Jacksonville did.

The roster has also lost useful contributors such as Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd.

The Jaguars will also face a much tougher schedule than last year, going from the 6th easiest in 2025 to the 18th easiest this season, along with some unfavorable travel quirks. The most revealing signal may be how aggressively current projections have already discounted last season.

Both Sharp Football Analysis and Mike Clay’s ESPN model land Jacksonville around 8.5 wins. Clay ranks the Jaguars only 20th overall.

That is an enormous gap from 13-4.

Jacksonville can still be a respectable team. It can even remain in the AFC South race. But it does not have to become total bottom-feeder to fall out of the postseason. It only has to stop getting elite defensive results and a large turnover advantage while the offense remains merely decent.

Dropout confidence: Medium-high

3. Denver Broncos

Denver is the hardest AFC selection because the Broncos should still be good.

They ranked seventh in DVOA last season, 10th in offensive EPA and seventh in defensive EPA. They added Jaylen Waddle. Their projected schedule is easier than Houston’s, and ESPN projects them for 10.9 wins.

None of that screams collapse.

The problem is that Denver went 14-3 while winning an NFL-high 11 one-score games.

That is not a sustainable standard.

Close-game performance contains some real quarterback and coaching value, but teams that live at the extreme almost always move back toward the middle. A tipped pass, missed kick or fourth-down failure changes three or four of those games very quickly.

Denver’s case is cleaner than Chicago’s because the Broncos did not also benefit from turnover luck. They actually finished minus-3 in turnover differential.

So this is not a prediction that Denver suddenly becomes mediocre.

It is a prediction that 14-3 becomes something closer to 10-7 or 9-8.

The other factor is conference structure.

Kansas City is one of the strongest rebound candidates in football, and the Chargers already made the playoffs last year. If the Chiefs return to anything resembling their underlying 2025 quality, the AFC West could have three legitimate playoff teams fighting over a limited number of spots.

Houston actually has the shakier pure regression profile. Its offense ranked 23rd in EPA, its defense ranked first and its turnover differential was plus-17.

But if Jacksonville falls in the AFC South, that automatically creates a cleaner division path for Houston.

Dropout confidence: Medium

AFC: Three Teams Most Likely to Return --

1. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have the cleanest rebound case in the league.

They went 8-9 last season, but their underlying profile was better than the record. They finished with a plus-26 point differential, ranked 14th in total DVOA and improved to 11th in weighted DVOA despite playing much of the season with a compromised Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens do not need to become a completely different team. They need a healthy Lamar.

Jackson missed three games and played through hamstring, knee, ankle, toe and back issues. The offense started the season strong and looked like it would exceed expectations until Lamar’s first injury.

From there it never fully recovered. The Ravens offense dropped from first in the NFL in 2024 to 16th last season as quarterback health and interior line problems piled up. The 2026 roster has been tweaked to address some of last year’s issues in addition to a revamp of the entire coaching staff.

Jesse Minter helms the defense alongside Anthony Weaver and they now have Trey Hendrickson to provide the kind of edge rusher the Ravens have lacked. The Ravens also enter the season with one of the easiest projected schedules in football. Mike Clay ranks them second overall and projects 11.5 wins.

There are legitimate questions. The entire interior offensive line has been rebuilt, and Declan Doyle is a first-time NFL play caller. But the Ravens don’t need turnover luck or a defensive miracle to jump three or four wins.

They need the most valuable player on the roster to resemble himself again while a talented team performs closer to its underlying 2025 level.

That is a much easier bet.

Newcomer confidence: Very high

2. Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati’s rebound case is less tidy because the Bengals actually played like a bad team for long stretches.

They went 6-11 and were outscored by 78 points, but the important part is where the damage occurred. Cincinnati still ranked 13th in offensive DVOA despite major quarterback disruption. The defense ranked 30th in DVOA and 29th in EPA per play. That is a concentrated weakness rather than an entire roster failing at once.

The Bengals spent the offseason attacking it.

Dexter Lawrence II, Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen and Bryan Cook headline a defensive overhaul, while Joe Burrow returns healthy. Nobody should assume Cincinnati suddenly has an elite defense, but it may not need one.

Clay still ranks the defense only 25th while projecting Cincinnati for 10.7 wins because the offense grades third. If Burrow restores the offense to elite territory and the defense improves from catastrophic to merely below average, Cincinnati can swing several games without requiring anything improbable.

The projected schedule helps even more. Sharp ranks it the second easiest in football.

There is real volatility here. The defensive changes may not work quickly enough, and Burrow’s recent injury history cannot simply be ignored.

But the path is obvious.

Newcomer confidence: High

3. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the strongest example of a record telling a much uglier story than the underlying performance.

The Chiefs went 6-11 and outscored their opponents by 34 points.

Those two facts do not comfortably coexist. Kansas City ranked 15th in DVOA, 12th in offensive DVOA, 11th in offensive EPA and 12th in defensive EPA. FTN’s Pythagorean estimate put the Chiefs around a .559 winning percentage, roughly equivalent to a nine- or 10-win team.

Instead they won six.

That does not mean Kansas City is automatically returning to its previous dynasty-level standard. The roster is no longer obviously superior to the rest of the AFC, and the schedule is not especially favorable. But projecting another six-win season would require believing the record contains more signal than the scoring margin and efficiency profile.

Patrick Mahomes is still the quarterback, the team remained respectable on both sides of the ball and even a modest correction should push Kansas City back toward the wild-card race.

The Chiefs do not have to become the 2022 Chiefs again.

They just have to stop losing like a six-win team while playing like a nine-win one.

Newcomer confidence: High

Check out more Ravens, Orioles and Soccer analysis at: dualeights.com

Tomorrow here at #DMD, Randy looks at the NFC in 2026 and tells us what he sees happening in the "other" conference in 2026.

Tuesday August 25, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4389

he just wants a "real" chance

I'll do my best to disguise actual dates, times and locations, in the unlikely event what I'm about to share can somehow get traced back to the origin of the conversation.

I guess there's a chance the person I encountered recently, the subject of today's lede piece, might even be a #DMD reader, although I don't think that's the case given our conversation.

I'm presenting this today almost as a goodwill service of sorts. Fall sports on the high school level are starting up as school resumes and this, today's entry, might be applicable to you or another parent you know.

The headline should have read: "Allow your kids to advocate for themselves."

Anyway...

I was recently at a local driving range hosting an array of different players from within the Calvert Hall Golf system. A few were current players, some where from last year's JV team hoping to make it "up" next spring, a couple were incoming 9th graders and one or two were even younger than that, just hanging around with their dad, hitting balls and having fun on a warm summer evening.

As I generally do, I arrived 45 minutes early and hit some balls myself, just to decompress from the day, listen to music and get in the teaching frame of mind.

About halfway through, a man approached the hitting station and sat in a chair behind me. I looked back and smiled and hit another ball. Then another. It suddenly dawned on me he wasn't just watching me, he wanted to talk. I took out my earpiece and greeted him.

"My son and (XXXX) from your JV team are down there hitting balls and they said you were up here so I wanted to introduce myself," Bob said. (His name isn't Bob. But I'll use that as a reference.)

I greeted him and looked down about 30 feet to see one of our JV players and another young man. They both waved. I waved. And then Bob dug in.

"My son wants to play golf at Calvert Hall," he said. "What's the minimum handicap he has to carry to make the team?"

Handicaps, of course, are no real determining factor when it comes to evaluating a golfer. I mean, you can go into the GHIN app right now and just type in "75" and list the course and the date you played and do that 10 times and you'll be a 1.5 handicap or thereabouts.

Trust me, I've seen a lot of vanity handicaps in high school golf over the years. We played a team last year in the MIAA where their #5 player shot something like 44 for 9 holes and I looked up his GHIN afterwards and he was listed as a .7 handicap. Not a "7", which is really what he was, but a .7. As in, basically a scratch golfer.

If that kid was a scratch golfer, I'm a major league third baseman.

"Well, we don't really go by handicaps," I explained to Bob. "We go by qualifying. We have a 54 hole qualifying event in the spring and that's how we award the spots on the team."

"But what if his handicap is better than kids on the JV team already?" Bob pushed back.

I could see there was a translation issue of some kind.

"Well, if his handicap is "better", he should be able to beat enough players in the qualifier to make the team," I explained.

Bob wasn't giving in.

"OK, but he has a 3 handicap right now. You're telling me if he plays in the qualifier and doesn't have a good day and doesn't make the team that some other player with a 6 handicap might be picked over him?"

"No one is getting 'picked' in golf. If your son is a 3 handicap and over 54 holes he loses to a 6 handicap, that's just the way it goes. I don't pick the players. The scores and their golf does that for me," I told him.

"We're just looking for a real chance to make the team," Bob said. "He beats a lot of the kids on your JV team already. We just need a real chance, that's all."

As soon as I hear a parent use the word "we" like that, I know "we" are in trouble. As in, him and I. The two of us.

"We" aren't trying out for the team. Your son is. I realize it's just commentary and might not mean anything at all, but when you couple yourself in with him and his athletic endeavors, I almost always get the fear you're living through him and not with him when it comes to sports.

"He'll definitely get a chance next spring to make the team," I said to Bob. "We have a Fall evaluation in October that he can attend and then we'll have tryouts in February."

"You can't try him out sooner?" Bob asked. "He's playing great this summer. Hasn't shot above 80 all summer."

Now I'm interested in hearing more.

"I'll look at his handicap on the GHIN. How many tournaments has he played in this summer?" I asked.

Bob stepped away and motioned for his son to come down to us.

We greeted one another and I asked where he went to middle school and what "house" he was in at Calvert Hall. Then I asked about his summer tournament schedule.

"I haven't played any golf tournaments," the young man said.

"But when he plays against Calvert Hall players he holds his own," the dad interjected.

This is akin to telling me your son is a great goal-scorer in soccer because "He scores on the Loyola (Gilman, Calvert Hall, McDonogh) goalie all the time when they play in the backyard."

Or, your daughter is the next Caitlyn Clark because she hits 3 pointer after 3 pointer in the driveway or scores 24 points in a pick-up game at the local YMCA.

What your son or daughter does outside of real, "keeping the score" competition is pretty much eye wash. Anyone can shoot a free throw in an empty gym with their airpods in. Give me the kid who can hit those foul shots with the gym packed on a Friday night and the opposing fans screaming while you're at the line.

As soon as I heard, "I haven't played any golf tournaments", the conversation shifted. If you don't play golf tournaments, there's no way to evaluate you. It really is that simple. You can go shoot 76 with your buddies at Pine Ridge or Greystone every day, but none of that compares to shooting 76-76 in a real, 36-hole golf tournament.

"You'll hear about a welcome meeting for golf in September on the morning announcements when school starts," I explained to the incoming freshman. "I'll meet up with you then and you'll fill out our paperwork and we'll take a look at you in October and then again next spring."

He returned to where he was hitting balls but Bob wanted more.

"I just don't want to see him not get a fair shot," Bob said. "He just needs a real chance to make the team."

"Every kid gets a real chance," I said. "They get to play golf against everyone else and if they have one of the lowest scores in the qualifier, they're in."

And then I added the line I sometimes use with a parent who is slow to grasp the concept of fielding the best team.

"What sense would it make for me to intentionally not keep a player who is better than the other kids on the team? I mean, if your son shoots four rounds of 75 and the other kid shoots four rounds of 80, am I keeping the 75 kid or the 80 kid?"

"The 75 kid, I hope," Bob said.

"Why wouldn't I keep the 75 kid?" I asked. Now I was doing the pressing. I wasn't agitated, but I was moving in that direction.

"Six kids play in the matches. I need to find the best six players I can for that day. What benefit would there be in not playing my very best six players?"

Bob was finally out of gas.

"Well, OK, I'll have him ready for, when was it, October? Tryouts are in Octber?" Bob asked.

"No," I replied. "Tryouts are next February. We have an informal evaluation in October. We'll have 20 freshman interested in playing JV golf. I like to look at them all in October to see what we have, talent wise."

"How many will make the team out of that 20?" Bob asked.

"Maybe eight," I replied. "Six to eight...it depends on their scores."

I could see Bob getting concerned.

"You have six or eight players with a 3 handicap or better trying out for JV golf?" he asked.

"I don't know their handicaps," I stated. "I don't really ask for those. Like I said before, we put them out there and let them play and see who winds up coming out on top."

Bob clearly wasn't getting the point about his son's "3 handicap" not having any factor at all in the process.

We did another minute of small talk and Bob finally relented, heading back down to where his son was still hitting balls. I gathered my stuff and went down to the far end of the range to meet up with my group of guys from Calvert Hall. I did steal a quick peek at Bob's son and saw him hit a ball that caromed wildly off to the right.

Bob immediately stepped in and started "teaching" his son, arms flailing, alignment rod in his hand, showing his son something about his backswing.

"Poor kid," I thought to myself.

Moral of the story?

Just let your son or daughter play, try out, and do the best they can without interference from you or your spouse or anyone else.

It's hard enough to play a sport well -- any sport -- when all of your chakras are lined up correctly and everything's in good working order.

It's almost impossible to play well when others around you are pressing you to play well.

If they don't make the team, tell your son or daughter to talk to the coach and ask him/her why they didn't make it and how they can improve and make it next year, if they want to continue pursuing the sport.

Allow your kid to advocate for themselves.

Just let your kid play and afterwards, just say, "I love watching you play and compete. No matter what happens, I love you. Nothing else matters but that."

	"Randy On The O's"
Randy Morgan takes #DMD readers through the recent week in Orioles baseball as the Birds try to return to the A.L. playoffs after missing the post-season in 2025.

question of the week

How has Jackson Holliday improved his production against left-handed pitching?

All stats are as of 8/17.

Jackson Holliday had two more hits against left-handed pitching on Sunday, August 16, driving in three runs with a single off Garrett Cleavinger and a two-run double off Steven Matz in the Orioles’ 10-2 win over Tampa Bay. Those hits pushed his season line against lefties to .265/.379/.388, good for a .767 OPS.

That number becomes considerably more interesting when placed next to his first two seasons:

Below you'll find numbers for his last three seasons. The year, the number of plate appearances vs. LHP, AVG OBP SLG and OPS

2024 46 .100 .217 .200 .417

2025 179 .200 .263 .309 .572

2026 58 .265 .379 .388 .767

That is a pretty remarkable progression for a weakness that appeared capable of turning Holliday into at least a partial platoon player.

As recently as May, Craig Albernaz was selectively sitting him against left-handed starters while saying the Orioles needed to balance development with putting players in favorable situations. At that point, Holliday owned a career .541 OPS against southpaws.

Now he is producing at roughly an average or better major-league level against them.

So what changed?

Holliday is clearly having more success against lefties, but the underlying numbers reveal a much more specific development. He is not suddenly crushing lefties. His exit velocity has barely changed, his barrel rate has actually declined, and he is still striking out far too often.

The biggest difference is that Holliday has reduced his chasing outside the strike zone against lefties.

The Biggest Change Is the Walks --

Start with perhaps the strangest number in the entire split.

Holliday has already drawn nine walks in 58 plate appearances against lefties this season. He drew only 11 in 179 plate appearances against them all of last year and four in 46 as a rookie. Before Sunday's game, his walk rate against lefties sat at 16.1%, up from just 6.1% last season and 8.7% as a rookie.

That accounts for a huge portion of the improvement.

It is certainly not coming from a dramatic reduction in strikeouts. Holliday has struck out 18 times in those 58 plate appearances. His pre-Sunday strikeout rate against lefties was 32.1%, compared with 24.0% last season. As a rookie it was an ugly 34.8%.

So he is not suddenly seeing the ball better and putting everything in play.

In fact, his overall contact rate against lefties was considerably better last year. He made contact on 75.7% of his swings in 2025, compared with roughly 68% this season before Sunday. His swinging-strike rate has also risen from 10.9% last season.

Normally that would be bad news. Yet his production has improved dramatically because the swings he is not taking have become increasingly important.

Lefties Are Giving Him Fewer Good Pitches --

The way pitchers are attacking Holliday has changed considerably.

In 2025, 30.5% of the pitches he saw from lefties were in Statcast's "heart" of the strike zone. This season that number has fallen all the way to 21.1%. At the same time, the percentage of pitches in the chase region has risen from 17.0% to 21.6%, while pitches in the waste area have increased from 7.8% to 11.5%.

In other words, left-handed pitchers have become considerably less willing to simply challenge Holliday.

That makes sense with his first overall pick pedigree. Even through his struggles he has always had enough bat speed to punish mistakes. The traditional plan for a lefty against a young left- handed hitter is to make him prove he can lay off breaking balls moving away and sinkers running toward difficult parts of the zone.

The important development is that Holliday has largely stopped helping opposing pitchers.

Lefties are increasingly trying to get Holliday to expand the zone, but he hasn't taken the bait. His swing rate on pitches in Statcast's chase region is 14.9%, virtually unchanged from 14.8% last season, even as those pitches have become a much larger part of how lefties attack him.

That hasn't made his plate discipline better than it was last year, but it has allowed him to benefit from pitchers becoming less willing to challenge him in the strike zone.

That is how you get nine walks in 58 plate appearances.

It also lines up almost perfectly with what Holliday and Albernaz have said publicly about his broader offensive improvement. Holliday described his recent approach as being ready for fastballs in the zone while trying not to get himself out. Albernaz similarly praised his ability to stop chasing, force pitchers into the strike zone and use the entire field.

Sometimes the advanced numbers uncover something nobody can see.

This time they mostly confirm what the hitter says he is trying to do.

He Is Also Doing More With the Strikes He Gets --

There is another encouraging piece buried inside the zone data.

When lefties have thrown pitches in the heart of the zone, Holliday has made contact on 89.3% of his swings, up from 83.5% last season and 81.5% as a rookie.

That distinction matters.

Holliday is still vulnerable around the edges. His contact rate in the shadow portion of the zone has actually fallen from 72.5% last year to 64.6% this season. Same-side breaking balls that start as strikes and move toward the edges remain a legitimate problem.

But the overall approach is beginning to make more sense.

Don't expand for the pitcher's pitch. Accept the walk if he refuses to come into the zone. When he finally does make a mistake over the plate, don't miss it.

That sounds exceptionally simple. Major-league pitchers spend their careers making it difficult.

The Contact Is Better Shaped, Not Harder --

The next question is whether Holliday is actually hitting lefties harder once he puts the ball in play.

Not really.

Before Sunday's game, his average exit velocity against left-handed pitching was 86.8 mph, barely different from 86.0 mph last season. His Statcast hard-hit rate had actually fallen from 31.1% to 24.1%, while his barrel rate declined slightly from 4.1% to 3.4%.

Those are not the numbers of someone suddenly pounding same-side pitching. Holliday has one home run against a lefty this year, Sunday's double was only his fourth extra-base hit against them and his isolated power remains modest. The improvement is more about what kind of contact he is producing.

Last season, 54.1% of Holliday's balls in play against lefties were ground balls and only 17.2% were line drives. This year, those numbers had essentially flipped into a much healthier distribution: 32.1% ground balls and 32.1% line drives. His opposite-field rate had also climbed from 20.5% to 31.0%, while his pull rate fell from 43.4% to 34.5%.

There are only around 30 batted balls in this year's sample, so nobody should start chiseling those percentages into stone. Line-drive rate in particular can bounce around wildly in such a small sample.

However, the direction fits Holliday's broader development.

Across all pitchers, Statcast has his line-drive rate climbing from 13.9% as a rookie to 21.9% last year and 25.5% this season. His ground-ball rate has moved the other way, from 56.6% to 49.0% to 45.6%. His sweet-spot rate, balls hit at productive launch angles, has risen from 27.0% to 32.4% to 37.6%.

That makes the lefty batted-ball improvement a little easier to believe. The exact 32% line-drive rate won't last, but hitting fewer balls directly into the ground appears to be part of a larger change rather than a platoon-split accident.

Colton Cowser recently pointed specifically to Holliday's ability to let the ball travel and use the opposite field, saying that approach gives him a larger timing window. Albernaz has made the same observation about Holliday becoming more comfortable using the whole field.

Against same-side pitching, that could be particularly important. Trying to yank every slider or sinker into the right-field seats gives a left-handed pitcher exactly the swing he wants. Staying through the baseball longer creates more room for Holliday to handle pitches moving away from him.

The Slider Is No Longer Killing Him --

Which brings us to perhaps the most encouraging pitch-specific development.

Lefties have tried to beat Holliday with sliders and sinkers, but he is not getting fooled by them as easily as in past seasons.

Sliders account for 34.4% of all pitches he has seen from left-handed pitchers this season, up from 29.7% last year. Sinkers account for another 25.2%. Put those together and almost 60% of his pitches from lefties have been the two shapes most naturally designed to exploit a left-on-left matchup.

Those pitches destroyed Holliday as a rookie.

FanGraphs' pitch values had him at 2.61 runs below average per 100 sliders against lefties in 2024. That improved to 0.55 runs below average last year and is almost exactly neutral this season at 0.11 runs below average per 100.

The progress against sinkers is similar: from 1.50 runs below average per 100 in 2024, to 0.45 below last year, to 0.85 runs above average this season.

Again, the sample is small, but the progression is notable because the league has continued testing him in exactly the area where he previously struggled. Pitchers have not forgotten the scouting report. Holliday is simply surviving the attack better.

And "surviving" may be the key word.

He does not need to slug .500 against left-handed sliders. He needs to stop turning every left- handed reliever into an automatic matchup advantage. Taking the slider that starts outside and stays outside counts. Fouling off the borderline one counts. Hitting a sinker the other way for a single counts.

The improvement appears to be coming from the entire plate appearance rather than one newly dominant swing.

How Much of This Is Real?

With just 58 plate appearances to base off, we can’t jump to too many solid conclusions, but the trends continue to move in the right direction.

Holliday's .379 OBP against lefties will almost certainly come down if the walks regress. His strikeout rate remains around 31%, which is far too high. He isn't hitting the ball particularly hard, and his current .388 slugging percentage hardly qualifies as dominance.

There is also some ball-in-play help in the results. Before Sunday's two hits, Holliday carried a .357 BABIP against lefties, compared with .246 last year.

However, the expected statistics provide an important defense of the improvement.

Before Sunday, Holliday had a .321 wOBA against lefties and a .313 expected wOBA. Last season those numbers were .255 and .260. In other words, Statcast did not view his improved production as some giant collection of bloops and fortunate outcomes. The expected results were almost as good as the actual ones.

FanGraphs likewise had him at a 107 wRC+ against lefties, meaning his offensive production was seven percent above league average after adjusting for league and park. That compares with a 62 wRC+ last season and 27 as a rookie.

That is the more meaningful progression.

The Lefty Problem Is Evolving --

Combining the top-line stats with the underlying analytics paints a picture of year-over-year improvement against lefties for the young former number one overall pick.

While the .767 OPS probably overstates where Holliday's true talent against left-handed pitching sits today. And the strikeouts and lack of authoritative contact are too significant to ignore. The progression is a positive sign and he still has room to improve further.

If Holliday can simply remain somewhere around league average against lefties, the Orioles no longer need to protect him from the matchup. He can play every day, continue accumulating repetitions against the pitches that have given him trouble and force opposing managers to think twice before automatically reaching for a left-handed reliever when his spot comes up.

At 22 years old, that is a major developmental win.

Progress is not always linear, Orioles fans need to look no farther than Holliday’s middle infield partner for a reminder of that.

Nonetheless, Holliday has the chance to continue this progression as he matures and could eventually turn a weakness into a strength by improving his strikeout and power numbers against southpaws in the future.

Monday August 24, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4388

ten losses remain

Well, it's getting serious now.

The Birds fell to the Rays on Sunday, 3-1, ending that crucial 10-game stretch against Tampa Bay (7 games) and the Yankees (3 games) with a 5-5 mark.

We were hoping for something like 6-4 or maybe even 7-3 in those ten games. Alas, the Birds are treading water, still, with a month left in the regular season.

The loss puts the Birds at 63-68 with exactly 31 games remaining.

In order to go 84-78 and potentially/hopefully grab the 3rd and final Wild Card spot, the O's can't go any worse than 21-10 in those last 30 games.

The good news? The O's do face a bunch of teams like the Athletics, Rockies and Mets who are in the "nothing to play for" category with a month left in the season.

The bad news? They face the Cardinals, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Guardians and Brewers and all of those teams will be playing for something when they meet up with the O's.

In fact, this upcoming series in St. Louis is probably do-or-die time for the Red Birds. They're 66-66 and 5.5 games behind the Padres in the Wild Card race. If they lose 2 of 3 or all 3 to the visiting Orioles, they're cooked.

For the orange-colored Birds, every loss is critical now.

Which means, every inning is important. Every at-bat means something. Every fielding faux pas could lead to an uprising that costs them a game, like the one made by Jackson Holliday in the top of the 6th inning yesterday that wasn't charged as an error -- because, you know, those scorekeepers are allergic to it -- but was a ball he should have gobbled up.

There's very little margin for error now.

This 9-game stretch against St. Louis, the Athletics, and Colorado will pretty much determine everything moving forward. If the Orioles somehow drop 5 games in that 9 game journey, they're done. Even if they lose 4 games they're probably in big trouble.

But 6-3 or 7-2 will keep them percolating along nicely in advance of a huge homestand against Boston and Cleveland.

The Orioles' one other big hope is that somehow, a record of 82-80 or 83-79 gets them into the post-season. But if it's 84-78, they can only lose 10 more games in their final 31 contests. That seems like a tall task for a team that's 63-68.

If percentages interest you, here's what they look like, according to ESPN.com, with (basically) one month left in the season.

Tampa Bay and the Yankees are both listed at 99.9% (chances of making the playoffs).

Boston is at 98.2%.

The White Sox are at 72.8%.

Interestingly, Cleveland is at 65-66 and they're listed at 45.1% to snag that 3rd and final Wild Card spot. I assume that's a nod in the direction of their fairly soft remaining schedule.

Texas currently has the same record as the Guardians, but they're listed at 42.6%.

Seattle has emerged as a potential Wild Card contender and they're now at 41.1% despite a record of 62-69.

Where are the Orioles, you wonder? Not looking good, that's where. They're at 11.9%.

So you're saying there's a chance......

Wyndham Clark thrust himself into PGA Tour Player of the Year discussions with a win yesterday at the BMW in St. Louis. The victory was his 3rd of the year, which included a victory at the U.S. Open in June.

Clark will join the other top 29 players in the FedEx Cup standings for next week's Tour Championship season finale at East Lake GC in Atlanta. He'll enter the week in 3rd place overall, trailing only Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick in the standings.

J.T. Poston, Kurt Kitayama and Rickie Fowler were the three guys who were inside the Top 30 at the beginning of the tournament, but finished outside of the Top 30 on Sunday in St. Louis. They fell victim to the three guys who were outside of the Top 30 but played their way in with great final round play; Patrick Cantlay, Gary Woodland and Robert MacIntyre.

There are probably only three legitimate Player of the Year candidates remaining.

Scheffler is the odds-on-favorite, due mainly to his statistical excellence throughout 2026, which also includes a pair of wins, two playoff losses and a handful of runner up finishes along the way.

Clark is probably second at this point with his 3 wins and a major title at Shinnecock Hills back in June.

Matt Fitzpatrick could potentially lay claim to Player of the Year honors if he wins next week in Atlanta and Scheffler falls back into the middle of the pack, somehow.

It's been a bit of a strange year in the world of golf.

The youngsters stole the show, with Jackson Koivun, Michael Thorbjornsen and Michael Brennan all capturing summer events and making a very early push for 2027 Ryder Cup consideration in the process.

The Masters went to Rory, again, which wasn't really that much of a surprise.

The PGA was won by Aaron Rai, a non-descript touring professional of Indian descent who is actually English. Oh, and he wears two gloves while he plays. He was the shock of all shocks when he won at Aronimink given his short length off the tee.

The U.S. Open was won by Wyndham Clark, who one year ago was so out of sorts with his golf game that he trashed the locker room at Oakmont CC after missing the cut at the U.S. Open.

And then Ryan Fox took advantage of Sam Burns's ice-cold putter in the final round to win the British Open by making birdie on the 72nd hole of the tournament.

Oh, and in case you're one of "those people", Cameron Young was the winner of The Players Championship back in March.

There for a while, it was actually Young who was the early leader for Player of the Year honors, but he cooled off over the summer after a blistering start to the 2026 campaign.

It all sets up for an interesting final week of the season at East Lake GC, where the last 30 men standing from the regular season get to duke it out.

	"Randy On The O's"
Randy Morgan takes #DMD readers through the recent week in Orioles baseball as the Birds try to return to the A.L. playoffs after missing the post-season in 2025.

orioles week in review

Week Record: 2-5

Season Record: 63-68

AL East Standing: 5th (14.5 GB of TB, 2 GB for 3rd WC)

Player of the Week: Pete Alonso - .345 AVG, 3 HR, 5 RBI, 1.000 OPS

And just as quickly as the Orioles climbed into a playoff spot, they fell back out of it.

The O’s continue to be a maddeningly frustrating team to follow. After a strong week that put them in pole position for the final wild card spot, they promptly lost four in a row and finished the week five games below .500.

They lost the finale of the four-game series in Tampa, then suffered a three-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees, before recovering to take two of three at home against Tampa.

The good news, if we can call it that, is the American League Wild Card race remains almost comically forgiving. The Orioles are still only 2 games out of the final spot with five teams sitting between .481 and .496. The bad news is they continue doing very little to separate from that pile of mediocrity.

The week started Monday with the finale of the four-game wraparound series in Tampa Bay.

The O’s had already secured the series and looked on their way to a sweep after building a 6-4 lead. Coby Mayo launched a massive 468-foot homer, Pete Alonso added another and Christian Encarnacion-Strand drove in four runs with a single and homer.

Brandon Young struggled with the long ball, allowing three homers and four runs, but the offense had done enough to put the Birds in position to win. Instead, Yennier Cano and Josh Walker combined to surrender three runs in the seventh, with Jonny DeLuca’s two-run single putting Tampa ahead for good in the 7-6 loss.

Things got much more frustrating when the Yankees arrived at Camden Yards. Shane Baz delivered a strong start Tuesday, striking out a season-high ten over 6⅓ innings. He left a 1-1 game with two runners on in the seventh, however, and Walker allowed both to score on a Trent Grisham single.

Coby Mayo’s solo homer off Carlos Rodón accounted for the entirety of the offense in a 3-1 loss. Baz was technically charged with all three runs, but this was another example of a starter doing more than enough to win and getting almost nothing from the lineup or bullpen.

Wednesday was no better. The Yankees scored three early runs off Chris Bassitt, but the Orioles fought back behind a Pete Alonso homer and a Dylan Beavers solo shot to tie the game at three.

Then came the play everyone will remember. Alonso appeared to hit his second homer of the night and his 30th of the season down the left-field line in the seventh, only for it to be called foul. Replay could not conclusively overturn the call, Alonso eventually struck out and the Yankees scored twice in the eighth on an infield single and wild pitch by Yennier Cano.

Whether the ball was actually fair or foul, the Orioles still had opportunities to win the game and did not. They fell 5-3.

There was much less controversy Thursday. Gerrit Cole and the Yankees simply beat them.

Kyle Bradish allowed five runs, three earned, over 5.2 innings, with New York breaking things open on back-to-back solo homers in the sixth. Beavers provided the lone offensive highlight by homering off Cole for his second straight game with a long ball, but Baltimore managed only one run in the 6-1 loss.

A team that had briefly climbed into a playoff spot four days earlier had now lost four straight and been swept at home by the Yankees.

Thankfully, the Rays came to town and once again provided a temporary cure.

Trevor Rogers gave Baltimore exactly what it needed Friday after the ugly Yankees series, working seven innings while allowing three runs on six hits with six strikeouts and only one walk. The O’s fell behind 3-1 in the second, but Beavers homered for the third consecutive game, Jackson Holliday tied it with a sacrifice fly and Alonso finally got his unquestioned 30th homer, blasting a two-run shot in the fifth to put Baltimore ahead 5-3. Rico Garcia closed it out with a scoreless ninth.

Saturday brought one of the more entertaining wins of the season, although apparently the true breakthrough was everyone wearing orange stirrups. The Orioles trailed 2-0 into the eighth before Samuel Basallo came off the bench and launched a game-tying two-run homer.

Tyler O’Neill preserved the tie with a diving catch in the ninth, then Garcia made a tremendous play on a bunt in the tenth to throw the automatic runner out at home. Dylan Beavers finished it in the bottom half, driving a Bryan Baker changeup to deep right for a walk-off double and a 3-2 win. It was already Beavers’ fourth career walk-off RBI in only 110 major-league games.

Unfortunately, the magic stirrups had a one-day expiration date. Shane Baz and Nick Martinez traded zeroes through five innings Sunday before Tampa finally broke through for three runs in the sixth.

The Orioles offense did almost nothing in response, with Colton Cowser’s ninth-inning homer providing their only run in the 3-1 loss. Baz was charged with three earned runs over 5.2 innings, giving him another solid-but-unspectacular start that received virtually no offensive support. Which has been the story of his season.

The offense was the obvious problem this week.

Last week the Orioles scored 35 runs in six games and reached at least four runs in every one. This week they scored only 20 runs across seven games. Five came during the entire Yankees series. They scored one run Tuesday, one Thursday and one again Sunday.

There were individual bright spots, particularly Alonso, Beavers and Mayo, but too many spots in the lineup provided almost nothing. Jackson Holliday went 3-for-28. Encarnacion-Strand went 3-for-20. Tyler O’Neill went 2-for-16. Gunnar Henderson reached base nine times but slugged only .308 and did not drive in a run.

That is not enough production for a team trying to overcome mediocre pitching, a negative run differential and a roster that already sold at the deadline.

The Orioles remain alive because the Wild Card race refuses to demand much from anybody. That is an opportunity. It is not a reason to pretend this team is playing well.

Player of the Week --

Pete Alonso gets the award for the second consecutive week.

He did not reproduce the absurd .545/.630/.864 line from the previous six games, but going 10- for-29 with three home runs and five RBI still gave him a .345 average and 1.000 OPS. More importantly, his production showed up throughout a week when most of the offense disappeared.

Alonso homered Monday in Tampa Bay, went deep again Wednesday against the Yankees and then provided the biggest swing in Friday’s win with his two-run homer off Freddy Peralta. This is now two straight weeks where Alonso has carried the offense.

The Orioles paid him to provide middle-of-the-order power and consistency, and at least lately he has been exactly that.

Dylan Beavers deserves the strongest honorable mention. His overall line was a strange but extremely productive 4-for-14, because three of those four hits left the ballpark and the other was Saturday’s walk-off double. Beavers homered in three consecutive games from Wednesday through Friday and finished the week with a .286/.333/1.000 slash line and 1.333 OPS.

That is a pretty efficient use of four hits.

Coby Mayo also continued providing evidence that the power is translating at the major-league level. He went 5-for-20 with two doubles and two home runs for a .250/.318/.650 line and .968 OPS. His 468-foot blast Monday was the fourth-longest homer hit in MLB this season, and he followed it with another homer off Carlos Rodón the next night. He has been excellent against lefties this season.

Trevor Rogers gets the pitching mention for Friday’s start. He allowed three runs across seven innings while striking out six and walking one, giving the Orioles length immediately after the Yankees sweep and allowing the offense time to come back from an early deficit.

It was not dominant, but seven competitive innings are valuable for a team that has needed to piece together far too many games from the bullpen.

Down on the Farm --

At Norfolk, Heston Kjerstad had the best offensive week, going 6-for-12 with a double and triple while reaching base ten times in 16 plate appearances. That produced a .500/.625/.750 line and 1.375 OPS. It was a small week in terms of plate appearances, but Kjerstad continues to hit enough at Triple-A to beg the question of when he may get another shot in Baltimore.

Michael Forret also bounced back after getting shelled last week. The right-hander worked five innings while allowing two runs on four hits, striking out five and walking three. One solid start does not erase his previous outing, but given how prominently Forret could factor into the 2027 rotation discussion, it was good to see him respond.

The more interesting pitching continues to come from Chesapeake, where Anthony Eyanson delivered his best outing since joining the organization, allowing one run over a career-high seven innings while striking out eight without a walk.

The start lowered his Double-A ERA to 1.93, which ranked second in the Eastern League among pitchers with at least 65 innings. The only pitcher ahead of him was teammate Joseph Dzierwa at 1.89. Dzierwa added another solid outing of his own this week, allowing one run over five innings.

There was some good position-player production at Chesapeake as well. Wehiwa Aloy hit .300 with two home runs, two doubles and a 1.117 OPS. Vance Honeycutt reached base in more than half of his plate appearances, batting .385 with a .529 OBP while stealing six bases.

Honeycutt’s combination of speed and defense has never been the question, so weeks where he gets on base at that rate make his major-league projection considerably more interesting.

Kyson Witherspoon, one of the other major pieces from the Adley Rutschman trade, deserves mention from High-A Frederick as well. He threw five hitless innings Friday while striking out eight. The three walks show that command remains the part of his game to monitor, but the raw stuff continues producing impressive results since the trade.

Finally, Félix Bautista made his first game appearance in more than 13 months Sunday with Chesapeake. The results were ugly. Bautista recorded only one out while allowing one hit, three walks and three earned runs on 22 pitches, only ten of them strikes. That obviously is not what anyone wanted to see, but the box score matters considerably less than the fact that he was back on a mound throwing around 95 mph and touching 97 after major shoulder surgery.

This is rehab, not a ninth inning at Camden Yards. Command may take time.

The more important question is how his shoulder responds and whether the velocity and execution improve over the next several appearances. If he recovers well, the current plan is for him to continue the assignment at Norfolk.

Check out more Orioles, Ravens and US Soccer analysis from Randy at: https://dualeights.com/

	RANDY MORGAN on American soccer
Americans are playing more and more of a vital role in international soccer these days, and Randy Morgan has his eyes on all of them for #DMD. Each week here, he looks at recent performances of American players and highlights upcoming games of importance.

premier league preview

The English Premier League kicked off its new season last Friday with perhaps more uncertainty at the top than it has had in years.

Arsenal finally ended their 22-year title drought last season and enter as deserved favorites to repeat. Ordinarily the biggest question would be whether Mikel Arteta can keep a championship team hungry enough to do it again. Instead, Arsenal may benefit just as much from what has happened around them.

Pep Guardiola is gone from Manchester City, replaced by Enzo Maresca.

Liverpool and Chelsea also have new managers. Manchester United made Michael Carrick permanent after he rescued their season last year. Nine Premier League clubs enter the season with managers who are new to the league or have changed clubs this summer. Eleven of the 20 teams have a different manager from the one who began last season.

That gives Arsenal a continuity that none of their main rivals can match.

They already gave a glimpse of their title defense with their 3-0 win over Man City in the Community Shield game on Sunday, August 16.

There are plenty of other interesting stories further down the table.

Sunderland somehow went from newly promoted to seventh place and European soccer in one season. Bournemouth and Brighton are also headed into Europe. Newcastle have torn apart much of the core that made them a Champions League team. Coventry City are back in the Premier League after 25 years away, bringing Haji Wright with them.

For American fans, there is also a healthy USMNT contingent spread throughout the league.

How to Watch the Premier League in the United States --

The Premier League remains the easiest major European league to follow in the United States.

NBCUniversal continues to hold the English-language rights, with matches spread across NBC, USA Network, NBC Sports Network and Peacock. Peacock will carry exclusive matches along with games simulcast from NBC, while USA remains one of the primary cable homes for the league. Spanish-language coverage will be available through Telemundo, Universo and Peacock.

Unlike some European leagues where you can get essentially everything from one streaming service, Premier League viewers still have to pay attention to the weekly schedule. Peacock alone will not necessarily get you every match live.

Americans to Watch --

The established USMNT group in the Premier League consists of five players who were part of the national-team picture during the World Cup: Tyler Adams, Chris Richards, Antonee Robinson, Brenden Aaronson and Haji Wright.

There are also strong rumors linking World Cup standout Folarin Balogun to Tottenham, though no move is completed as of writing.

Tyler Adams - Bournemouth

After several seasons where the main Tyler Adams question was whether he could remain healthy, he has reestablished himself as an important Premier League midfielder.

Adams impressed again for the US during the World Cup and should remain one of the anchors of Bournemouth's midfield. His ball-winning, positioning and ability to cover large areas allow more creative midfielders like Alex Scott to take risks ahead of him.

There is one significant change. Andoni Iraola left Bournemouth to take over Liverpool and has been replaced by Marco Rose. Bournemouth also qualified for Europe, which means a deeper schedule for a club without the depth of the traditional powers.

That could make this an especially interesting season for Adams. If he stays healthy and handles a Premier League-plus-Europe workload, he will have fully erased most of the durability concerns that followed him through the middle of the last World Cup cycle.

Chris Richards - Crystal Palace

Richards may have the most secure club role of any American in the league.

He has developed into an established Premier League center back and was a major contributor during Palace's run of trophies under Oliver Glasner. Now Glasner is gone, Maxence Lacroix has been sold to Chelsea and new manager Pierre Sage inherits a defense in transition.

The good news for Richards is that Sage is expected to retain a back-three structure similar enough to what Richards has been playing in for several seasons.

Richards has always had the athleticism and aerial ability to survive at this level. His improvement with the ball has been more important. If Palace asks him to take greater responsibility initiating possession after Lacroix's departure, this could be another step in his development.

Antonee Robinson - Fulham

Robinson remains one of the most proven American players in Europe, although Fulham are entering an uncertain season.

Marco Silva left after several successful years and former Real Madrid manager Alvaro Arbeloa has taken over. Fulham also lost several veterans, including Harry Wilson and Raul Jimenez, while attempting to get younger.

Robinson's role should remain straightforward. He is still one of the team's best sources of width and progression from left back, and Fulham are significantly more dangerous when he is able to repeatedly get forward.

At this stage his season is less about proving he belongs in the Premier League and more about whether he can remain one of the better left backs in it as Fulham change systems around him.

Brenden Aaronson - Leeds United

Aaronson quietly put together a productive first season back in the Premier League, recording nine goal involvements as Leeds comfortably survived relegation.

Leeds improved significantly during the second half of last season after Daniel Farke moved toward a more direct 3-5-2. They have reinforced the squad with goalkeeper James Trafford, center back Tarik Muharemovic and former Fulham winger Harry Wilson and appear more interested in chasing the top half than merely surviving.

That style should suit Aaronson.

He has never been a player who controls matches through prolonged possession. He is much better pressing, making quick combinations and finding space around transition moments.

A team willing to play forward quickly gives him more opportunities to use those qualities. He probably enters this cycle outside the USMNT's preferred starting lineup, but another productive Premier League season would make him difficult to push out of the broader pool.

Haji Wright - Coventry City

Wright finally gets his chance in the Premier League after helping Coventry win promotion. He scored 17 league goals last season and 18 in all competitions, continuing the steady scoring production he has delivered throughout his time in England.

Frank Lampard has spoken publicly about believing Wright's combination of size, speed and finishing can translate to the Premier League.

There is now an unfortunate complication. Wright has been dealing with a quad injury during preseason and could miss the opener against Arsenal. Coventry also just added experienced striker Taiwo Awoniyi, giving Lampard another option up front.

Still, Wright should get his opportunity once healthy.

This is a meaningful test for his USMNT future as well. Wright has consistently scored below the Premier League level, but at 28 he is no longer being evaluated as a developmental prospect. If he can score regularly against Premier League defenders, there will be a much stronger argument for keeping him involved through the early part of the 2030 cycle.

The Title Contenders --

The betting market has established a pretty clear five-team hierarchy.

As of the final week before the season, Arsenal are the favorites at roughly +120, followed by Manchester City around +350, Liverpool around +550, Chelsea around +800 and Manchester United around +850. Odds vary by sportsbook and have moved following Arsenal's 3-0 Community Shield win over City.

Arsenal

Preseason odds: around +120

For years Arsenal entered seasons trying to prove they were ready to win the Premier League. Now we finally get to see them defend it.

Arteta's team was already the most stable of the contenders and arguably got stronger this summer.

The headline addition is Bruno Guimaraes, purchased from Newcastle for $101.5 million. Pairing him with Declan Rice gives Arsenal another midfielder who can win the ball, receive under pressure and move possession forward without forcing Martin Odegaard to come deeper to organize everything

.

They also added Greek winger Christos Tzolis from Club Brugge, addressing an area where they have lacked consistent production opposite Bukayo Saka. Leandro Trossard departed, but this looks much more like refreshing a championship squad than rebuilding one.

There are some early injury concerns, particularly in defense, but Arsenal still have the strongest combination of talent, depth and continuity.

Their 3-0 Community Shield win over City should not be treated as a prophecy for the next nine months, but the manner of the game was encouraging. Arsenal looked like a team that knew exactly what it wanted to do. City looked like a team learning.

That difference is why Arsenal deserve to be favorites.

Manchester City

Preseason odds: approximately +350

For the first time in a decade, the biggest Manchester City storyline isn't a new player. It is the manager.

Pep Guardiola's departure ends the defining coaching era of modern English soccer. City chose Enzo Maresca to replace him, which is about as close as they could come to maintaining philosophical continuity. Maresca worked under Guardiola and shares many of the same possession principles.

But this isn't just Guardiola leaving.

Bernardo Silva, John Stones, Manuel Akanji and Nathan Ake have all departed. Most significantly, the player who just led Spain to the World Cup trophy, Rodri, is on his way back to Spain to play for Barcelona.

That is an enormous amount of institutional knowledge disappearing in one summer.

City have responded aggressively, most notably spending at the time, a British-record $157 million on Elliot Anderson from Nottingham Forest. Anderson gives them athleticism, ball- winning and progression through midfield, but replacing Rodri is not as simple as buying another good central midfielder.

Rodri controlled where City played. He killed counters before they developed and gave their more adventurous players permission to move forward.

Maresca now has to replace both the player who controlled matches on the field and the coach who controlled them from the sideline.

They still have Erling Haaland and more talent than almost anyone in the league. They have several players who were improving and finding their roles towards the end of last season, like Jeremy Doku and Rayan Cherki. So dismissing them would be foolish.

But City are rebuilding enough of their spine that this does not feel like the sure-thing they were during the peak Guardiola years.

Liverpool

Preseason odds: approximately +550

Liverpool's post-Jurgen Klopp transition has become much less smooth than it initially appeared.

Arne Slot won the Premier League in his first season, then Liverpool dropped to fifth last year amid a dramatic decline. The club moved on and hired Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola. Stylistically, the fit makes sense.

Iraola's Bournemouth played aggressively without the ball, attacked quickly after turnovers and generally tried to create disorder rather than slowly control every phase of the game.

That should feel more familiar at Anfield than some of Liverpool's slower soccer last season. The roster, however, has changed dramatically.

Mohamed Salah is gone. So are Andy Robertson and Ibrahima Konate. Liverpool brought in center back Jeremy Jacquet, Victor Muñoz and Ronald Araujo on loan, but replacing Salah's production is a completely different problem.

They will hope to better integrate last season’s major signing, Alexander Isak, this time around and hope that Florian Wirtz continues to grow into the creative centerpiece of the team.

The question is whether Iraola can organize all of it quickly enough.

There is certainly enough talent for Liverpool to challenge. But compared to Arsenal, there are many more new relationships that need to work immediately.

Chelsea

Preseason odds: approximately +800

Chelsea remain the hardest team in the league to predict.

Last season was another mess. They finished tenth and changed managers again. Now Xabi Alonso arrives after his brief Real Madrid tenure, giving Chelsea perhaps the most interesting coaching hire of the summer.

Alonso showed at Bayer Leverkusen that he can build an elite positional attack while changing shape fluidly between possession and defense. Chelsea have spent years accumulating technically talented players without ever appearing to have enough continuity for those players to form a coherent team.

Maybe Alonso finally provides it.

They certainly gave him more talent.

Morgan Rogers arrived from Aston Villa for a British record $158 million, just eclipsing the number City shelled out for Anderson. Chelsea also added Marco Palestra, Maxence Lacroix, Geovany Quenda and several other young players.

More surprisingly, they signed Danny Welbeck and Jordan Henderson, the first real indication that the club has recognized that a roster consisting almost entirely of young prospects may occasionally benefit from adults. Chelsea has the advantage of focusing entirely on domestic leagues and cups, with no European competition this season.

Alonso will have full weeks on the training field to implement his ideas while Arsenal, City and Liverpool deal with Champions League travel.

I am not ready to predict a title after a tenth-place finish, but Chelsea have enough talent and enough structural advantages to make +800 interesting.

Manchester United

Preseason odds: approximately +850

For the first time in quite a while, there is a plausible reason to take Manchester United seriously as an outside title contender.

Michael Carrick took over in January and United produced the best record in the Premier League over his 17 matches, going 12-3-2. That run carried them all the way to third place and earned Carrick the permanent job.

There is some danger in extrapolating half a season into a championship challenge. Teams adjust. A manager has to deal with injuries and bad form over 38 games rather than ride the momentum of a midseason change.

Still, Carrick simplified a team that had become tactically confused under Ruben Amorim. He returned to a back four and placed players in more conventional roles.

United have now added Andrey Santos from Chelsea and Youri Tielemans from Aston Villa to a midfield that badly needed renovation. Casemiro and Rasmus Hojlund are among the veterans who departed.

The attack has enough options between Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha, Bryan Mbeumo and Benjamin Sesko. The larger question is whether the defense is strong enough and whether Carrick's initial bounce was the beginning of something sustainable.

I would put United below Arsenal, City and Liverpool, but the gap is smaller than it has been for years.

Other Storylines --

What Happens After Pep?

For most of the last decade, Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City set the standard for the league and had every top contender gunning for them. Guardiola’s tactics, and the counter moves to them, drove the evolution of the league for much of that time.

Building from the back, high pressing, counter-pressing and positional play became the norm in the Premier League. Now that foil is no longer present. How will the league adapt?

Will Mikel Arteta and reigning champions Arsenal take that pedestal and set the course of the league? Or will the wave of newly appointed managers like Iraola at Liverpool or Alonso at Chelsea or Rose at Bournemouth, drive the tactical trends?

Newcastle Tears It Down

No team outside the title contenders has changed more dramatically than Newcastle. Eddie Howe resigned. Bruno Guimaraes went to Arsenal. Sandro Tonali went to Tottenham. Anthony Gordon left for Barcelona.

That is basically the core of the team that turned Newcastle into a Champions League contender.

New manager Matthias Jaissle inherits several expensive young replacements, but this looks more like the beginning of another cycle than a club ready to immediately compete near the top.

Sunderland Try to Do It Again, This Time in Europe

Sunderland were one of the best stories in Europe last season.

A newly promoted team that was supposed to struggle just to survive. Instead they finished seventh and qualified for the Europa League.

Now comes the difficult part.

The club spent heavily to build that squad last summer, but has been much quieter this time. Europa League games also introduce the Thursday-Sunday schedule that has damaged plenty of emerging teams before them.

Bournemouth face a similar question after qualifying for Europe. Both clubs will discover whether last season represented the beginning of sustainable progress or the type of magical year that becomes much harder to reproduce once the schedule gets crowded.

Can the Promoted Clubs Survive?

Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Hull City replace West Ham, Wolves and Burnley. Recent history is ugly for promoted clubs. Six straight promoted teams went immediately back down in 2023-24 and 2024-25 before Leeds and Sunderland finally broke the streak last season.

Over the past decade, more than half of promoted Premier League teams have been relegated in their first season.

All three newcomers have responded by spending.

Coventry won the Championship comfortably and have Lampard plus a productive attacking group led by Wright. Ipswich have spent more than $135 million and hired Gary O'Neil, who has experience surviving relegation fights. Hull appear to have the largest hill to climb.

Prediction

It’s hard to pick against Arsenal after they nearly pulled off the Premier League and Champions League double last season. They have bolstered their squad with the addition of Guimaraes and know well who they are under Arteta.

This season should be a more open title race, with Liverpool, Manchester United and Chelsea looking to get back in the picture and prevent the two-horse City-Arsenal race.

With some uncertainty and turnover at several of the big clubs this seems like a year where one of the non-traditional powers could go on a run and steal a Champions League spot. It wouldn’t shock me to see a Bournemouth, Brighton, Brentford or Crystal Palace slide up and snag one of those top five places.

If forced to pick a winner, I’d have to select Arsenal. They won going away last season and look to have only gotten stronger in the offseason. Meanwhile their top competitors have a lot of questions to answer heading into the season.

Premier League champion: Arsenal

Sunday August 23, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4387

can we play tampa bay every game?

Make that 5 of 6 against the Rays.

As in, 5 wins in 6 tries for the O's against their A.L. East rivals over the last eight days.

Last night's 3-2 win in 10 innings was extra sweet, because for seven innings the O's did nothing offensively. Then, with a swing of the bat from Samuel Basallo in the bottom of the 8th inning, the game was tied and back in the balance.

Dylan Beavers turned out to be the hero with a double in the bottom of the 10th, as the Birds won for the second straight night after taking 3 of 4 from the Rays in Tampa Bay last weekend.

Imagine if the O's could play Tampa Bay every night, huh?

Following today's series finale with the Rays, the Birds head off on a 9-game road trip that should yield a bunch of wins for the orange and black. They start the journey with three games in St. Louis, then take on two of the worst teams in all of baseball, the Athletics and Rockies. A 7-2 road swing will get the Birds back to .500 and primed for the final month of the season.

In case you're the kind who plans ahead, when the O's return home from that 9-game trip, they'll host the Red Sox for four games and the Guardians for three before visiting the Blue Jays and Mets for three games each.

I'm thinking the Birds can cobble together something like a 14-8 record in those next 22 games. I'll save you the math and put it right here for you.

Assuming they win today to get to 64-67, a 14-8 record in those 22 games above will get the Birds to a 78-75 record with 9 games left in the regular season.

If that happens, it's freakin' game on at that point.

It's still a race to get to 84 wins and the Birds are very capable of getting there.

You just have to believe.

The Ravens won their second pre-season game of the campaign in Minnesota yesterday by the final score of 13-3. I know exactly what you're thinking and you're right.

"A 13-3 pre-season game must have been very difficult to endure."

It was. And I didn't even really watch it.

I was able to catch bits and pieces of it, but a pre-season football guy I'm not. I don't know when I've watched more than a quarter of a game in one sitting.

But here's what I'm hearing from my bird in a tree about the team's pre-season thus far.

It's not much, but it will give you something to chew on in advance of the final game against D.C. next Friday.

There's a real chance Joe Fagnano is going to be the team's back-up quarterback, displacing veteran Tyler Huntley.

"It's going down to the wire with those two," my team associate says. "With John (Harbaugh), he had a lot of trust in Tyler and always wanted him around. But with this new group of coaches, it's a more open competition. Joe (Fagnano) has done very well and he picks up the system quickly."

The club also really likes 7th round pick Rayshaun Benny, a defensive tackle.

"He could be the steal of the draft for us," says my Ravens associate.

And the team's punting woes are not a concern at all, thanks to Ryan Eckley, the rookie from Michigan State.

"He's going to be a very good NFL punter. We're in good shape with him," the associate confirmed.

Now, about that field goal kicker...

Tomorrow here at #DMD, Randy Morgan takes an in-depth look at the English Premier League campaign, which kicked off this weekend with a full slate of games.

One thing I never thought I'd see in my lifetime: Our country caring as much about English soccer as it does.

When I was in the soccer business, the only people in the U.S. who followed the English Premier League were England natives living here.

That has changed, big time, over the last 30 years.

The games are on TV here on a weekly basis and pubs and bars all over the country open early on Saturday mornings to welcome in "supporters" of particular clubs.

Randy Morgan does an outstanding job of covering all of it for us. If you're an English Premier League fan, get back here tomorrow for his excellent pre-season preview of the EPL.

The golf world got shook up on Friday but it wasn't because LIV Golf stiffed someone again or Phil Mickelson pinched a cart girl on the rear end.

But the controversy did involve a woman.

The folks at Good Good, which is a subscription-based internet golf company that produces videos and social media content, collaborated with Callaway on a commercial for a driver that was going to be co-marketed and branded by Good Good.

To avoid the strong arm of the internet law, we're not going to show you the actual commercial below, rather we're going to show you a podcast that has the commercial embedded in it. If you skip to the 1:20 mark, you'll see the commercial, which has since been pulled by both Callaway and Good Good.

The controversial moment comes at the beginning of the commercial when a female approaches a golf bag and attempts to pull out the driver that's sticking out of the bag.

A man races from about 15 yards away and "decks her", then stands over her and says, "Do NOT touch my driver."

That's it.

The rest of the commercial is kind of goofy, honestly. But that moment of "domestic violence" got the commercial removed and permanently shelved.

The outcry has been over the top.

People are canceling their subscriptions to Good Good and golfers are threatening to boycott Callaway.

All over a promotional commercial for a golf club.

Full disclosure here, I'm not a Good Good fan, supporter, subscriber, etc. I don't particularly care for the way they "brand" golf within their own little world. They serve the 14 to 30 year old crowd much more than they serve my age group. Shirts untucked, hats backwards, no real regard for golf etiquette and so on.

I do NOT think they're bad for golf, on the whole. They've done a lot to promote the sport over the last 10 years. But I think there are things about Good Good that aren't "good" for golf, no pun intended.

That said, I don't quite get the vitriol about the commercial.

But I do get it.

Make sense?

It was a commericial. It was supposed to be funny. It was supposed to make you realize just how important the guy's new driver is...that he wouldn't even let his girlfriend (which didn't come across in the video) touch his driver.

That said, there will be thousands of "Don't Touch My Driver" screams from Good Good subscribers moving forward, which was probably one of the reasons why they came up with the campaign in the first place. Now, will those same people physically attack someone -- man or woman -- who touches their driver? I have no way of knowing that.

Anyway, it's part of what we do these days in this great country.

We overreact. Pretty much to everything.

A Good Good fan I'm not (although I do own a Callaway driver, if that needs to be revealed as well), but I think they got raked over the coals a little too harshly yesterday.

But the commercial itself was dumb...so there's a price to pay for that along the way, I guess.

Saturday August 22, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4386

a ray of hope, still

Hey, winning is better than losing.

The O's needed that one last night in a big way. After being swept by the Yankees in New York South Baltimore this week, the last thing the Birds needed was to start the 3-game series with Tampa Bay by losing yet again.

Trevor Rogers and Pete Alonso made sure that didn't happen.

Rogers was exceptional, again, and Alonso delivered, again, as the Birds broke a 4-game losing skid with a 5-3 win over the suddenly reeling Rays. What once was a 6.5 game lead for the Rays over the Yankees has now dwindled down to just three after New York's win over Toronto last night.

Alonso, the obvious selection for 2026 team MVP, went 2-for-4 with 3 RBI, including his 30th homer of the campaign. Rogers went 7 innings and allowed just 3 earned runs while striking out six Tampa hitters.

For the first time all week, the Birds could relax after a game and say, "We're still in this thing..."

Texas (64-65) is currently occupying that third and final Wild Card spot. The O's are two games behind the Rangers.

As we noted here yesterday, their "tragic number" to reach 78 losses is 11.

But you have to remember this: The teams the Birds are fighting with for that final A.L. Wild Card spot are all facing the same issue with that race to 78. And the more times teams like the O's, Rangers, Guardians, Tigers and Blue Jays lose, the more it might be more like an 82-80 or 83-79 record that gets you that final playoff spot.

A crowd of nearly 26,000 took in the contest at Camden Yards.

I know you probably expected a few more people in the seats, but that's been the team's M.O. most of the season. Unless the Birds are giving something of value away, Friday night crowds are now in the 25,000 range rather than the 30,000 - 32,000 range you'd otherwise expect.

The team's "meh", Tampa Bay doesn't have any kind of real drawing cards, player wise, and this is the last couple of weeks of summer so folks are getting in those last minute weekend getaways.

Did that cover the three most plausible excuses for a crowd of 25,000 on a Friday night in August? I think it did.

Another win tonight, no matter the crowd, and the Birds are back to rolling again. We might just have a "ray" of hope after all.

Ravens Wide Receiver Rashod Bateman is in some hot water after it was revealed yesterday that he was arrested back on June 6 in Georgia for smashing the windshield of a female acquaintance.

I'm not here to break down what happened and who said what, etc. Bateman was involved in an incident that led to his arrest. That's the story. His lawyers are claiming it has basically been blown out of proportion and that once he has his day in court, Bateman's name will be cleared.

That could happen, sure.

But I guess that's not really the issue at this point.

The issue is.......did the Ravens know about this? Have they known since roughly the day it happened back in early June that Bateman had been arrested via some sort of domestic incident? Or did they just learn about this in the last day or so when TMZ caught wind of the story and ran with it?

That ultimately became the biggest part of the Justin Tucker story from the Ravens standpoint. How long did they know about it?

Unlike the Bateman story, which had been kept quiet for two-plus months, the Tucker tales were "out there" in the community, mostly lingering around in benign social media posts where someone would just drop a one line bombshell like, "Hearing a prominent Baltimore athlete got "kicked" out of another spa yesterday."

Those posts would occasionally show up and no one would bat an eye. Then Tucker's troubles surfaced in late January of 2025 and it all started to get stitched together and make sense.

But did the Ravens know as far back as 2018 that Tucker's name was being connected with some nefarious behavior in the massage community?

Did they know those social media "hints" existed? And, if so, did they dispatch one of their PR/Media folks to do some research and digging to find out if any of it was true?

And if they did dig up the dirt and did know Tucker was, at the very least, "involved" in some massage room shenanigans, shouldn't they have self-reported those findings and let the chips fall thereafter?

Or is it simply all connected to winning football games and that's that?

If TMZ doesn't catch wind of Bateman's arrest, would it have ever made it to ESPN and then to the NFL?

Of all the things attached to stories like these, that's always the one that gets me curious the most.

Do teams know about these arrests and just play along like nothing's going on, just waiting for the day when it hits the news cycle to send out the template press release about how they're aware of an incident and they're going to allow the judicial system to play out and no further comment is coming at this time?

They know, but they just carry on as if nothing happened?

Or are they in the dark like everyone else until the story breaks and they find out about it like the rest of us?

To me, that's the only issue worth discussing when it comes to these stories in professional (or college) sports.

How much does the club know or how little do they do about it?

And I'm not here to play judge-and-jury with the Ravens or the other teams that face this dilemma. There was a time when organizational integrity and character mattered. Those days are pretty much gone.

The reality is, in a business with 1,500 men ages 21-39, there are going to be day-to-day circumstances that require law enforcement intervention. Every company with 1,500 employees has those same potential issues, but those situations never make it to the front page of the local paper or get spread to the masses via Twitter and other social media avenues.

Do I like seeing a Ravens player involved in something that warrants an arrest and potential punishment by the NFL? Of course not. But it's an inevitable part of the sport and the world we live in.

I know they're going to try to win football games and things like an arrest of one of their top players won't get in the way of that pursuit. And, remember, he does still get his day in court and Bateman could be found not guilty. It's important to remember that as well.

The only dangling piece of fruit I see is to determine exactly what the club knew, dating back to June 6, and whether they were just hoping it would get resolved or stay under the rug by some miracle.

Friday August 21, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4385

magic tragic number: 11

OK, so the O's have 67 losses now after last night's 6-1 home drubbing at the hands of the suddenly rejuvenated Yankees.

By my thinking, it's going to take a record of 84-78 -- at a minimum -- to make the playoffs in the American League.

You want hope? I'll give you some.

Maybe I'm wrong.

The A.L. is soooo bad and soooo littered with teams who look like they don't want to make the post-season that maybe, just maybe, it takes a record of 82-80 or 83-79 to make it.

In that case, I'm wrong about the O's only being able to spare 11 more losses this season.

But I think I'm probably right. Someone's getting in with 84 wins. And that number could swell to 85, even.

That said, right now, there are a handful of teams well under .500 vying for that final A.L. wild card spot. We all assume someone out of that group will get hot enough to finish over .500, right? I mean, it would be unheard of for someone to finish 79-83 or 80-82 and make it.

So, the Birds are down to their last 11 losses of the season as I see it.

They're 61-67 now after getting swept by the Bronx Bombers. They have to finish 23-11 to post a mark of 84-78. While I'm the first to admit it seems unlikely they can do that, I keep going to back to the same point a lot of people make: The teams looking for that last wild card spot are all mediocre. At best.

As for the game itself last night, the same thing that happens three times a week happened again on Thursday. The O's couldn't hit. Like, at all.

I'll spare everyone the witty remarks about Orioles hits and music groups and bands because some people here have no sense of humor. But the offense was, again last night, useless.

Wednesday night they might have lost because of a shoddy instant replay decision in the 7th inning. Last night, though, there were no excuses. Gerrit Cole was really good, Kyle Bradish was basically "just OK", and all of that goodwill generated from that 3-game winning streak in Tampa Bay last weekend went out the window in -- wait for it -- a New York minute.

The Rays come in licking their wounds after losing 3 of 4 to the O's and 2 of 3 to the visiting Blue Jays. Maybe this is an end-of-season swoon? Or perhaps they'll right the ship in Baltimore this weekend?

One thing for sure: The O's are starting to stare their magic tragic number directly in the face. 11 more losses. That's all they can accumulate between now and the end of September.

When the autopsy on 2026 is written, the main theme will be.........wait, we're not writing a friggin' autopsy here today. There's baseball left. Plenty of it, in fact.

The bandwagon has emptied a bit over the last few days. It's mostly people who never played sports in their life who have run for cover. So, if you want to jump back on after tonight's win over Tampa Bay, we might even be able to get you an aisle seat near a bathroom.

A lot of football concepts have died a quick death over the years. It's been interesting to watch it unfold.

There was a time when you automatically took the football when you won the coin toss. It was just a given.

Now, it's almost the other way around. You win the toss, you give the other team the ball first. I've heard both sides of the argument and I'll admit I still think taking the ball at the start of the game is the way to go, but whatever.

The "coffin corner" punt used to be a thing 40 years ago. You buried the opponent down in their offensive end with a perfectly placed punt at their three yard line. Punters were great at it.

That went away, too. Now, a punter's job is to kick the ball as high as he can and let the athletes get downfield and try to make a play on the ball. I don't get that one either, but, again, whatever.

Teams used to run the ball almost exclusively on 3rd and 3, let's say. If you needed 3 yards, that was a running play.

Now? 3 yards is almost always a passing play or, if you're the Ravens and you have a fleet-footed quarterback, there's some sort of play-action involved where the QB might throw it or run with it himself.

As we chronicled here earlier in the week, pre-season football used to "mean something" because teams would get to see veterans and newcomers alike and evaluate them in real-time action.

That's gone. The best players on the team -- the most valuable ones, that is -- no longer suit up for meaningless games, even though people play real money to go watch those games.

You get the point. Times change.

Here's the next thing that's going bye-bye in the NFL.

Those silly, remarkably tense "joint practices". This week alone, there have been four significant fights/brawls in joint practices, plus injuries, including one to Ravens center Daniel Pinter in a joint practice with the Vikings.

Now, sure, a player can be hurt in his own practice just as easy as in a joint practice. That much is true.

But these fights are asinine. And they're real fights, too. They're not "baseball fights" where everyone stands around and cusses at each other and someone throws a punch designed more to send a message than actually inflict pain.

And almost every time there's a joint practice, a fight or a scrap ends up taking place. I mean, it's like a real game, except there's no penalty flag or ejection, which probably makes it even more inviting to boil over and take out your frustrations on the other guy.

If you want more "competition", play your real players a series or three in a pre-season game. Sure, he could get injured. That much is true. But having these goofy joint practices where you're mimicking real competition without the same rules and guidelines seems just as dumb as letting Lamar play two series' of the first pre-season game.

Three years from now, maybe even sooner, joint practices will go the way of the coffin corner punt. You can make book on that.

faith in sports

Two of the most wonderful parts of faith and Christianity are salvation and redemption.

Those are provided to us through the crucifixion of Jesus on the cross. He died for our salvation and redemption on the day we pass from earth to heaven.

Sports is also often times about redemption.

You see it all the time. It might be one of your favorite players. Or it could be someone from another team that you once disliked, but come to find out he (she) is actually someone you can admire.

I think a lot of people had a negative opinion about Baker Mayfield when he was coming out of college a decade ago.

He was, by his own admission, a "loose cannon".

But people changed. And Mayfield has certainly changed in his NFL career.

I know we've run this interview with Mayfield before in bits and pieces here, but today I post it in its entirety. It's an incredible sitdown with a man who has experienced for himself both salvation and redemption, as a football player and a man.

This is one of the more fascinating episodes of Sports Spectrum that you'll find.

Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of #DMD and our "Faith in Sports" segment here every Friday.

Thursday August 20, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4384

and liv golf is...........dead

Well, it was good if you were one of the first guys to join LIV and you were able to get all the money those people owed you.

You know, like the older European players who had no more real value on the PGA Tour. Guys like McDowell, Poulter, Westwood, Kaymer, Garcia. They all took the money and played great golf ran.

Those were the very early days of LIV, circa 2021-2022, when those slimy folks at the Saudi-based PIF overpaid anyone who would take their money to play 3-day tournaments with guaranteed salaries, essentially.

If you came around here back then, you know this author was anti-LIV from the start. From day one. From the very first minute, really, I thought the whole thing was a complete sham.

It was sportswashing at its finest. Only a dummy -- and I mean, a total dummy -- wouldn't have been able to see through what the Saudis were trying to do. They wanted to curry favor with a sport and its players in exchange for having "regular folks" forget about their lengthy list of international atrocities.

Phil Mickelson -- who never turned away a dirty dollar -- summed it up best, off the record or not: "They (the Saudis) are scary moth**f****rs."

Of course they were. But Phil and a lot of other prominent players paid no attention to that stuff. Instead, they swarmed in like bees to honey and scarfed up every available dollar of blood money they could.

It was one thing for the European guys to sell their souls. Their world didn't stop on September 11, 2001 like ours did.

But when American golfers whored themselves to those creeps? That was the lowest of low blows in the history of golf.

Patrick Reed branded himself "Captain America", then took $100 million from the same regime who helped fund and orchestrate the attacks on our country in 2001.

What a guy.

Brooks Koepka went, too.

Dustin Johnson did as well, although it's fair to point out D.J. might not have been alert enough in 2001 to know about those planes flying into buildings.

Charles Howell III. Harold Varner III. Thurston Howell III and, eventually, Bryson DeChambeau -- another flag waving type who likes to hang out with the President -- all forgot about 9-11 and took the money from LIV.

To their credit, Reed and Koepka both eventually caved in, realizing the golf at LIV sucked, the product was awful, and no one would bother going to see the tournaments when they were being played.

Jon Rahm was their biggest pawn of all at LIV. They stole him from the PGA Tour for $400 million or more. They reportedly still owe him $300 million of it.

Yesterday, LIV golf's head honcho -- Scott O'Neil -- talked about a new effort by the circuit to play on more friendly terms with others in the industry, code word for trying to snuggle up to the very organization (the PGA Tour) it bloodied five years ago when they coaxed guys like Koepka, D.J. and Reed to their fledgling garbage-product.

"Golf certainly doesn't need another five years of fighting," O'Neil told the media in Indianapolis, where the last LIV event, probably ever, is being played this week. "Golf doesn't need one tour to win and everyone else to lose. We shouldn't live in a world where one group of golfers is uniquely restricted from playing elsewhere. Our goal isn't to replace or restrict any tour."

What a loon that guy is.

"We shouldn't live in a world where one group of golfers is uniquely restricted from playing elsewhere."

Right. That's because you and your buddies from Saudi Arabia decided out of the blue you'd turn the sport upside down five years ago and, now, it's 2026 and you've run your business into the ground.

We also shouldn't live in a world where some maniacs come along and decide to play 54 hole tournaments with hundreds of millions of guaranteed dollars being offered to golfers. Alas, that's what happened.

We probably shouldn't live in a world where vendors and clients don't get paid for work they did for LIV, either.

This dagger comes from ESPN's reporting of LIV's imminent demise: "As it attempts to move beyond this season, LIV cannot entirely do so while it also faces multiple lawsuits from vendors who claim they have not been paid for services rendered as well as financial constraints that resulted in an individual prize purse this week in Indianapolis that has been cut in half and two on-site music concerts that have been cancelled."

Hilarious, right? They've gone through $6 billion in five years and can't pay the people who put up the scaffolding at their tournaments. But they're in it for the "right reasons", huh?

Throughout 2026, LIV has run their product like a Single-A baseball team.

But it's almost over, now.

Rory McIlroy authored one of the great comments of 2026 yesterday when someone asked him about LIV players who might return to the PGA Tour in 2027 adding "value" to the Tour.

"I mean, let's be honest, did they really add any value to LIV?" McIlroy asked.

Touche.

When it's all said and done, the PGA Tour will figure out a way to let those defectors back to the PGA Tour, but they will all have to bow down and take out their check books. Rumors abound that Rahm has already been told his fine to rejoin the Tour is now $50 million after eschewing the offer of a $25 million fine to return back in February of 2026.

All of the PGA Tour players who skipped out and took the PIF's money will eventually have to fork over big bucks to the PGA Tour if they want to return. As they should.

It took five years, but what we all knew would happen has, thankfully, happened.

LIV is done.

Good riddance.

Right on cue, our battlin' Baltimore Orioles have once again lost their ability to produce any kind of offense. Last night's 5-3 loss to the Yankees included two O's homers (Mayo and Alonso) and just four other hits in the game.

You're not winning many baseball games wth six hits.

I know what you're thinking.

"But, Drew, the Beatles had a great run and they only had six hits."

I know. But that's music. Bands who have six hits live in huge houses with big swimming pools. Baseball teams with six hits don't win very often.

Alas, the O's offense has been bland over the last two nights. And the Yankees have won the first two games of the three game series in Bawlmer.

Chris Bassitt got the start last night. He wasn't terrible. But the Yankees' bullpen outdueled the host's bullpen, just like they did the night before in the 3-1 series opener win on Tuesday.

One interesting note from Wednesday's loss was the return of Samuel Basallo, who played first base and one hit in three official trips to the plate.

To make room for Basallo, Jeremiah Jackson was optioned to Norfolk.

Last night's game was marred, somewhat, by a bizarre "no call" on an apparent Pete Alonso home run in the 7th inning. How those nutjobs watching the replay didn't see that ball was fair is one of the season's great mysteries. It was definitely fair, just like Cowser's ball down the right field line against the Braves a few Friday nights ago in Baltimore was fair.

I don't understand how you have all of that incredible technology and you can't tell where the ball went. And even with video available, there's still human error involved.

It probably wouldn't have mattered because Sanders and Cano would have imploded in the 8th inning anyway.

But that was a home run from Alonso in the 7th.

The series finale tonight gives the O's a chance to snap this ill-timed 3-game losing streak. With Tampa Bay coming in for three this weekend, a victory this evening is crucial for the Birds.

Oh, and don't look now, but last night's defeat was the 66th of the season for the Orioles.

In order to finish 84-78 and have a half-a-chance to make the playoffs, the Birds can only lose 12 more games this season.

Yikes...

---

orioles minor league player of the week

It’s time to highlight the O’s farm system a little bit and announce our DMD Orioles’ Minor League Player of the Week. This week several prospects made this a very difficult decision, but ultimately, we have selected Chesapeake Baysox second baseman Aron Estrada.

Estrada, 21, garners his third selection of the season as our Minor League Player of the Week thanks to hitting .474 (9-19) this week and picking up at least one hit in each of the games he played last week. As part of that performance, Estrada just ho-hum blasted FIVE home runs during the week and drove in 10 RBI as well.

He hit a homer in four of the five games he appeared in against the Reading Fightin Phils (Phillies), and capped off the series with a 5-5 performance that included two homers and a double.

A multiple time selection here, Estrada has earned each and every one of those. At just 21, he has spent the entire season at the AA-level and is tearing it up. Over 101 games, he has hit .286 with 21 home runs, 20 doubles, 62 runs scored and has driven in 68 RBI.

He currently ranks 2nd in the entire Eastern League in homers, 5th in RBI and 7th in batting average.

Currently ranked as the 13th best prospect in the Orioles system, Estrada was originally signed by the O’s in the 2022 international signing period for $175,000 out of Venezuela. He has several aspects to his game that are attractive, including the ability to both switch-hit as well as play in the outfield as well.

With just a few weeks remaining in the 2026 minor league season, time is running out for the Orioles to find some time for him at the AAA level.

Even if he does not head to Norfolk this year, I have little doubt that he will begin next season there. If he continues to perform the way he has this year next year, he may find his way to Camden Yards some time in the 2027 season.

Be sure to check back in all season as we will continue to highlight top performers from the O’s farm system!

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here for his thoughts on the purple birds.

The Ravens enter the season with high hopes once again. But also with significant question marks.

Several of their positional units rank among the best in the league, but several have been overhauled or bolstered in the offseason, in hopes that they can repair the issues that dragged them down last season and rise back to the top of the AFC North and beyond.

So what should we expect in 2026?

Here is how I rank the Ravens’ 12 major units entering the season. This is not simply a list of their projected NFL rankings. Positional importance, depth, certainty and the degree to which a unit can change Baltimore’s championship ceiling all matter.

That is why quarterback leads the list even though safety has the cleaner argument as the best unit in the NFL.

1. Quarterback

Projected NFL rank: 2nd | Reasonable range: 1st-4th

There is not much mystery about why this starts with Lamar Jackson.

The two-time MVP is among the cream of the crop at the position when healthy. Entering the season there are only two quarterbacks who could really make a case to rank above Lamar and that's Josh Allen and Pat Mahomes.

With Mahomes returning from a serious knee injury, we’ll project Lamar as the number two QB entering the season.

The only real question is whether the Ravens can keep him healthy.

His 2024 season was absurdly efficient. Lamar generated +0.28 EPA per play, threw for 4,172 yards with 41 touchdowns and four interceptions, added 915 rushing yards and was sacked on only 4.23 percent of his dropbacks.

Almost all of those numbers crashed in 2025. His EPA per play fell to +0.07, his sack rate more than doubled to 9.78 percent and injuries limited both his availability and effectiveness. Lamar missed three games with a hamstring injury and dealt with additional physical issues afterward and was pretty clearly never himself for the remainder of the season.

The mistake would be treating either season as the automatic 2026 baseline.

Lamar does not have to reproduce his historic 2024 efficiency for Baltimore to have one of the two or three best quarterback situations in football. He simply needs to look much more like himself than he did during the injury-disrupted 2025 season.

Declan Doyle adds another variable. The Ravens are asking Lamar to operate a new offense with more movement, different formations and greater responsibility within the structure of each concept. Done well, that should provide cleaner answers before the snap and reduce the number of plays Lamar has to rescue through improvisation. The concern is whether the rebuilt offensive line gives any of those ideas enough time to develop.

Depth is the weakness here. Tyler Huntley is a useful backup who understands the offense and the organization, but there is no realistic replacement for what Lamar does to a defense. Baltimore can survive a short Huntley stretch. It becomes a completely different offense if Lamar is gone for a month.

That does not prevent quarterback from ranking first on this list. It merely explains why keeping Lamar healthy remains the single most important condition attached to the Ravens’ season.

2. Safety

Projected NFL rank: 1st | Reasonable range: 1st-3rd

If this were strictly a ranking of where each Ravens position stands against the league, safety would be first.

Kyle Hamilton has become the prototype for what modern defenses want from the position. He can play deep, cover the slot, fit the run, blitz, match tight ends and move around enough before the snap to make quarterbacks identify him repeatedly.

He was a first-team All-Pro last season after posting an 86.3 PFF grade, including an 84.3 coverage grade and 91.5 pass-rush grade. PFF currently ranks him as the NFL’s best safety, and his multi-year grading since entering the league supports the argument that this is more than reputation. The exciting part for Baltimore is that this no longer has to be Hamilton carrying the position by himself. Malaki Starks played more than 1,000 snaps as a rookie and was already a strong run defender. His coverage was more ordinary, which is hardly alarming for a young safety asked to process NFL route combinations and rotations immediately. A normal second-year improvement would give Baltimore one of the league’s best young safety tandems.

The arrival of Jaylinn Hawkins bolsters the position further. Having a legitimate third safety allows Jesse Minter to move Hamilton without forcing him to compensate for a hole somewhere else. Three-safety personnel can become a tactical choice rather than something Baltimore only uses when the matchup demands it.

Hamilton himself remains irreplaceable, but the room has both elite talent and legitimate depth. There are very few Ravens units where No. 1 in the NFL feels like the most reasonable starting point rather than an optimistic ceiling. This is one of them.

3. Running Back

Projected NFL rank: 3rd | Reasonable range: 1st-6th

Derrick Henry finally showed signs of regression last season.

He ran for only 1,595 yards, averaged 5.2 yards per carry and scored 16 touchdowns.

Some regression that was, huh?

The important context is that Henry’s 2024 season was never a sensible baseline. He averaged 5.91 yards per carry at age 30 and produced 1,921 rushing yards. Expecting that again would have been unreasonable even if he were five years younger.

Instead, his 2025 efficiency came back toward earth while remaining elite. The Ravens still finished fourth in rushing DVOA despite the broader offensive decline.

Henry also remains more valuable than a normal productive running back because defenses have to structure themselves around stopping him while simultaneously accounting for Lamar. The Ravens do not merely hand the ball to Henry and hope he falls forward.

His downhill threat changes linebacker fits, creates opportunities for Lamar on the perimeter and increases the value of play action.

The obvious concern is age. Henry is 32, and eventually even the exceptions stop being exceptions. Workload durability is a greater concern than whether he suddenly forgot how to run.

The Ravens at least has useful depth. Justice Hill remains a good passing-down and change-of- pace option, while Rasheen Ali and converted receiver Adam Randall give the Ravens different choices for the remaining snaps.

None of them replaces Henry, which is the same caveat every team with an elite player faces. This is still a top-five NFL running-back room, with a legitimate case to finish higher if Henry keeps delaying the inevitable decline.

4. Interior Defensive Line

Projected NFL rank: 6th | Reasonable range: 3rd-15th

This may be the deepest unit on the roster.

The temptation is to make everything about Nnamdi Madubuike’s return from the neck injury that ended his 2025 season in Week 2. His health is unquestionably the biggest variable. The Ravens spent almost the entire 2025 season without the interior rusher who produced 60 pressures in 2024, according to PFF.

But this ranking does not require the Ravens to simply close their eyes and assume Madubuike becomes his old self immediately.

Travis Jones changed the floor of the group last season. He finished with an 80.1 PFF grade and an 82.8 run-defense grade, while 47 pressures and five sacks. He developed from a powerful nose tackle into a high-volume interior defender capable of affecting both phases.

Then Baltimore brought back Calais Campbell, who generated 33 pressures and six sacks last season despite being at an age where most defensive linemen are several years into retirement. The key is that the Ravens do not need Campbell to be the centerpiece.

Keeping his role manageable within a deep rotation should give him a better chance of remaining effective. John Jenkins can handle the dirty early-down work. Broderick Washington, Aeneas Peebles and rookie Rayshaun Benny provide further rotation possibilities.

That gives Minter options. Jones and Jenkins can provide size against heavier run personnel. Madubuike and Jones can attack inside on passing downs. Campbell can move around the front. Peebles can potentially develop into a situational penetrator.

Most importantly, the Ravens should not have to run their best defensive linemen into the ground in September.

The ceiling depends upon Madubuike’s neck holding up. The top-10 case does not. There is enough quality and depth here for Baltimore to have a very good interior even if his return is gradual.

5. Edge

Projected NFL rank: 8th | Reasonable range: 4th-14th

For several years the Ravens have tried to create an elite pass rush without actually employing an elite edge rusher.

That is a difficult trick to sustain.

Baltimore’s defensive sack rate fell from 7.65 percent in 2024 to 4.32 percent last season, when the defense managed only 30 sacks. Mike Green flashed as a rookie but produced only 3.5 sacks and was not ready to become the player an opposing protection had to locate before every third down.

Trey Hendrickson changes that.

The former Bengals standout produced 17.5 sacks and 83 pressures in 2024, then earned a 90.0 PFF pass-rush grade during an injury-shortened 2025. He has demonstrated the ability to win without Baltimore manufacturing the matchup for him.

Minter can still use simulated pressures, overload protections and move rushers around. The difference is that those designs are now being built around a defender offenses already have to account for rather than being used to compensate for the absence of one.

Green can move into a much more reasonable complementary role. Second-round pick Zion Young arrives after producing 53 pressures and eight sacks at Missouri. Tavius Robinson offers a stronger early-down option.

The first four make this a top-10 unit. The depth becomes shakier after that, particularly given Adisa Isaac’s inability to stay healthy through his first two seasons.

There is also age and injury risk with Hendrickson, who missed significant time last season. Young is still a rookie, and Green has not yet proven he can consistently finish NFL pass-rush opportunities.

Still, no Ravens unit received a more obvious personnel upgrade this offseason. Baltimore finally has the proven edge winner it has been trying to manufacture through scheme.

6. Cornerback

Projected NFL rank: 11th | Reasonable range: 6th-20th

This might have the widest range of plausible outcomes of any Ravens unit outside punter. Nate Wiggins remains the ceiling player. His 2025 season was uneven, but the talent that made Baltimore believe it had found a potential No. 1 corner has not disappeared.

The recent leg injury that required him to be carted from practice was concerning, although the early news indicated there was no structural damage.

Then there is Marlon Humphrey.

His PFF coverage grade went from 81.0 in 2024 to 43.8 last season. Maybe that is an aging corner beginning to decline. Maybe it is a wild one-year performance swing that should move substantially back toward his established level. Both possibilities have to be taken seriously. The reason I still have the corners this high is depth.

Chidobe Awuzie was arguably Baltimore’s most consistent corner last season, finishing with a 77.2 coverage grade. T.J. Tampa played only 148 defensive snaps but held up well when called upon. Keyon Martin and rookie Chandler Rivers give the Ravens multiple possibilities in the slot, while Hamilton provides yet another way to construct the nickel defense.

That means an injury does not immediately force Baltimore to play someone who does not belong on an NFL field.

The Ravens can use Wiggins outside, kick Humphrey inside and play Awuzie on the other boundary. They can keep Humphrey outside and use a designated nickel. Tampa can fill in if one of the top three misses time.

That is meaningful depth at a position where teams inevitably reach CB4 and CB5 during a 17- game season.

This is not an elite cornerback room based on the current performance of its starters. It is a deep one with enough upside to become elite if Wiggins makes his expected jump and Humphrey rebounds.

An improved pass rush should help too. Covering for three seconds is generally easier than covering for five. Advanced analytics remain undefeated.

7. Pass Catchers

Projected NFL rank: 13th | Reasonable range: 8th-20th

Zay Flowers has removed himself from the list of concerns.

He caught 86 passes for 1,211 yards last season, commanded a 29 percent target share and averaged 2.52 yards per route run. He has developed into a legitimate No. 1 receiver rather than merely Baltimore’s best receiver by default.

The questions begin immediately afterward.

Mark Andrews declined from 673 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2024 to 422 yards and five scores last season, while his yards per route run fell from 1.87 to 1.20. Rashod Bateman dropped from 756 yards and nine touchdowns to 224 yards and two scores.

Both players were probably on the fortunate side of touchdown variance in 2024 and the unfortunate side of Baltimore’s entire passing-game collapse in 2025. The sensible projection lies somewhere between those extremes.

Bateman is particularly important because the Ravens need an outside receiver who can punish defenses for devoting extra attention to Flowers and Andrews. Devontez Walker has flashed explosiveness but has not established a full-time role.

Baltimore tried to address the uncertainty by drafting Ja’Kobi Lane and Elijah Sarratt. That gives Doyle options, but rookie receivers should not be treated as solved problems in August.

The larger depth concern is at tight end, where Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar are gone. Durham Smythe gives Baltimore a veteran blocker and useful role player, while Matt Hibner and Josh Cuevas provide developmental upside. None should be casually penciled in to replace Likely’s receiving ability.

If Andrews misses time, Baltimore suddenly has very little proven receiving production at the position. Flowers is good enough to keep the Ravens around the middle of the league almost by himself.

Getting into the top 10 requires at least one additional development. An Andrews rebound, a Bateman revival or a young receiver becoming a legitimate weekly threat. Preferably more than one.

8. Linebacker

Projected NFL rank: 12th | Reasonable range: 8th-20th

This unit is better than “Roquan Smith and whoever lines up next to him,” which is probably the easiest way to underestimate it.

Smith remains the foundation. He was not quite at his best last year, but he still posted PFF grades above 74 in both coverage and run defense. A rebuilt defensive front should also make his life easier by preventing offensive linemen from reaching the second level quite so cleanly.

Trenton Simpson deserves more credit than his changing role suggests. He earned a 79.6 run- defense grade last season and generated 12 pressures in limited work. Coverage remains the concern, but the Ravens do not need to hide him on every down.

That matters because Teddye Buchanan is still recovering from the torn ACL that ended his rookie season. Buchanan showed useful run-defense ability before the injury but struggled more in coverage. Even before considering the knee, he still had development ahead of him. Having Simpson gives Baltimore the option to bring Buchanan along rather than treating Week 1 as a deadline.

Minter also has ways to reduce the burden on the second linebacker. Hamilton can play closer to the box. Three-safety personnel can replace a conventional linebacker in certain matchups. Simpson can be used as a pressure player rather than repeatedly isolated in coverage.

The problem comes after the top three. Jay Higgins IV has barely played NFL defense, and the rest of the depth chart is largely developmental.

If Smith, Simpson and Buchanan are available, Baltimore has a solid group. Lose Smith or two members of that trio and the floor drops quickly.

That keeps the Ravens just outside the top 10 entering the season.

9. Blocking

Projected NFL rank: 18th | Reasonable range: 13th-24th

No unit is more difficult to evaluate because Baltimore’s blocking was simultaneously very good and very bad last season.

The Ravens created 2.9 yards before contact, second in the NFL according to FTN’s offensive- line data, and finished sixth in adjusted line yards. Henry did not run for 1,595 yards entirely through individual stubbornness.

Pass protection was another story.

Baltimore allowed pressure on 32.7 percent of its pass plays, 29th in the league. The guards combined to allow seven sacks and 58 pressures.

With the overhaul of their line, the Ravens need to preserve as much of the rushing operation as possible while becoming competent enough inside that Lamar can step into the pocket without immediately meeting a defensive tackle.

Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten give Baltimore stability at tackle. The entire interior is different. John Simpson returns back to the team at left guard. First-round pick Vega Ioane is expected to start on the right.

Danny Pinter has emerged during camp as the favorite at center, with Ethan Pocic providing unusually experienced competition and depth as he builds back up from his injury last December.

The concern is continuity and certainty. Pinter has played plenty of NFL football but has never entered a season as an established full-time center. Ioane is a rookie. Simpson is new to this particular combination. Meanwhile, Tyler Linderbaum, Patrick Ricard, Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar are all gone from the broader blocking structure.

There are reasons for optimism. It is difficult to imagine the guard play being worse than it was last season, and Ioane has substantially more upside than a typical rookie being thrown into the lineup.

Pocic’s 97 career starts give Baltimore a legitimate fallback if Pinter struggles.

The interior depth is respectable. Tackle depth is much less comforting, particularly if Stanley misses extended time. National projections capture the uncertainty. FTN has Baltimore’s line 13th. PFF has it 24th.

The run blocking should remain a strength. If pass protection merely becomes average, this ranking will look too low. If the new interior spends September passing off stunts incorrectly while Lamar runs for his life, it will look generous.

10. Return Unit

Projected NFL rank: 14th | Reasonable range: 8th-22nd

The return game was quietly pretty good last season.

LaJohntay Wester averaged 12.4 yards on 16 punt returns, eighth in the NFL, while the Ravens were roughly average on kickoff returns. They did it without producing a return touchdown, so the improvement was not built around one fluky play inflating the numbers.

Wester should retain the punt-return job and gives Baltimore a legitimate weapon there. Kick returner is less settled, but Rasheen Ali, Adam Randall, Justice Hill and others give the Ravens enough options that losing one candidate should not destabilize the unit.

The complication is that return and coverage performance cannot be fully separated from the specialists. Jordan Stout’s placement and hang time helped Baltimore allow only 6.9 yards per punt return last season. Rookie Ryan Eckley now has to reproduce enough of that value for the coverage team to continue operating from favorable circumstances.

Anthony Levine Sr. also takes over as special-teams coordinator, adding another element of transition. Returns themselves should be somewhere around average to above average.

The reason the overall unit does not rank higher is volatility. Wester’s punt-return average came on only 16 attempts, kickoff rules continue to change how teams approach the play and the punter transition affects the other half of the equation.

There is enough here to feel comfortable.

There is not enough to feel particularly certain.

11. Kicker

Projected NFL rank: 16th | Reasonable range: 9th-24th

Tyler Loop’s rookie season was better than the final kick makes it feel.

Unfortunately for him, the final kick was the one everyone remembers.

Loop made 30 of 34 field-goal attempts, an 88.2 percent success rate, and was perfect inside 50 yards until missing from 44 on the final play in Pittsburgh with the division and a playoff berth at stake.

His larger concern was distance. Loop went only 1-for-4 from 50-plus yards.

That concern did not disappear in the preseason opener. Loop pushed a 49-yard attempt wide right against Philadelphia on Saturday night before rebounding to make a 42-yarder and all three extra points.

One preseason miss should not materially change the evaluation, but after going 1-for-4 from 50-plus as a rookie, every failed longer attempt is going to receive more scrutiny than it otherwise would.

That is why league average feels appropriate entering Year 2.

The Ravens have reason to believe in the leg. Loop made six of nine attempts from at least 50 yards during his final college season. Four NFL attempts are not enough to conclude that he cannot make long kicks.

At the same time, they should not pretend the position is solved simply because his overall percentage was respectable. The mental side following the season-ending miss will receive plenty of attention, but the Ravens should be evaluating mechanics rather than attempting amateur psychology.

Does his operation remain consistent? Is the contact clean? Is the miss pattern stable? Can he convert from distance?

If those answers are positive, Loop has enough talent to climb well above 16th.

If accuracy becomes unstable during the preseason or early in the year, the Ravens should not allow a draft pick or a decent rookie percentage to guarantee him an unlimited leash.

12. Punter

Projected NFL rank: 22nd | Reasonable range: 12th-30th

This is the weakest Ravens unit mostly because nobody really knows what it is yet.

Jordan Stout went from an ordinary 2024 season to a first-team All-Pro in 2025. He led the league with a 44.9-yard net average, averaged 50.1 gross yards per punt and was a significant reason Baltimore’s punt coverage was so efficient.

Then he followed John Harbaugh to the Giants.

The Ravens responded by selecting Ryan Eckley in the sixth round. There is plenty to like about the prospect. Eckley led the FBS at 48.5 yards per punt last season, finished his college career with a 47.6-yard average and showed both distance and directional ability.

That is an excellent résumé for a rookie punter, but he is still a rookie punter. College gross average does not automatically translate to NFL net punting. Placement, hang time, operation speed and the ability to control distance become more demanding against professional returners and coverage units.

His first preseason appearance illustrated that uncertainty almost too neatly. Eckley shanked his first NFL punt out of bounds for just 27 yards, then responded with a much better 40-yarder that was fair-caught at the 10. Two punts tell us almost nothing about what kind of NFL punter he will become, but they certainly do not give us a reason to shrink the enormous error bar around the position yet.

Baltimore also has essentially no in-house safety net because teams do not carry a developmental rotation at punter. If Eckley struggles, the solution probably comes from outside the roster.

He could absolutely become another successful Ravens specialist and make this ranking look silly by November.

But preseason rankings are supposed to separate what we know from what we hope.

Baltimore just replaced the best punter in football last season with someone who has never punted in an NFL regular-season game.

Until Eckley proves otherwise, that makes punter the most uncertain unit on the team.

Wednesday August 19, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4383

wednesday with greg

#DMD contributor Greg Trehane returns for a "Wednesday with Greg" edition, where he peppers Drew with questions and asks for answers.

Greg rolls through questions about the Orioles, Ravens, professional golf and other interesting tidbits.

Greg: "You're a man known to like a wager on occasion. What are the odds that Gunnar Henderson signs some sort of contract extension in Baltimore?"

DF: "I'd say -1500 that he doesn't re-sign. He's gone. No Scott Boras client is ever going to re-sign or agree to a new contract in advance of being a free agent with a small team like Baltimore. At least not a Scott Boras client who is one of the more high-profile free agents of that particular off-season, which I assume Gunnar will be in the winter of 2027."

Greg: "What would Drew the general manager do with Gunnar? Are you keeping him? Trading him? It's very complicated isn't it?"

DF: "It is complicated because of his poor 2026 season. This time last year, the thought of "passing" on Gunnar and just trading him away next summer would have been unheard of. Now, it's not unheard of. I would still try to re-sign Gunnar. I think there's high quality there. I don't know what's happened to him this year. Maybe his dog died. Maybe his girlfriend/fiance/wife doesn't like Baltimore. I know people laugh at that, but if your significant other doesn't like where the two of you are living, it's a potential problem. Anyway, I'd still try to re-sign him, but I'd give the calendar ultimatum. 'If we don't have a new contract with you by May 1, 2027 (assuming there's baseball, obviously) then we're going to put the wheels in motion to trade you.' But on the surface, I'd be trying to sign him to an extension. He's still a quality player. But there's one final piece to the puzzle. It can't be stupid money. It has to be a real but sensible contract. If some goofy team in MLB wants to pony up $50M a year for him, off he goes."

Greg: "What do you think is going on with Trevor Rogers? Why wasn't he traded at the deadline in your opinion?"

DF: "That's a tricky one because the O's aren't going to divulge the truth, for obvious reasons. I think they must be somewhat close to a deal with him. That's really the only thing it can be. I mean, they can go through the whole qualifying offer ordeal if they want but I think you're hopeful of signing him to something in the 4 to 6 year range. And since they didn't trade him at the deadline, I'm guessing they're close enough to a deal that Elias said, 'Let's roll the dice that we're going to bring this thing to the finish line.' It wouldn't make any sense to hold on to him when you were clearly cleaning house and he had some real value."

Greg: "I'm pretty sure I know the answer to this but I'll ask. How much stock do you put in pre-season football performances? A lot of stock, some stock or no stock at all?"

DF: "I'm probably right between "some" and "none". I mean, the guys who are trying to make the team -- the ones on the bubble, as they call it -- are playing against the same caliber of players from the other team, most of the time. So what can you figure out about a 4th string wide receiver who is torching the other team's 4th string cornerback? There was a time 15 years ago when the starters all played at least one half of the first game, if not into the second half, and you could at least glean something about a couple of the 2nd or 3rd year players. Now, almost no veteran of any substance plays. And if they do, it's a series or two, max. Now, is it valuable for the draft picks to get out there in August and get a sense of the increase in speed and contact at the NFL level? For sure. That's where the "some" stock comes into it. But for the most part, I don't put any real stock in the pre-season any longer."

Greg: "Is there a better chance of the Ravens going 14-3 and making the Super Bowl or going 8-9 and missing the playoffs again?"

DF: "Well, there has to be an asterisk on this one. They're NEVER going 8-9 if Lamar is healthy for the entire season. Now, if he gets hurt, could they go 8-9 or worse? Of course. But to answer your question, I think there's a far better chance they go 14-3 than going 8-9 *providing Lamar is healthy for the whole season."

Greg: "How do you assess the AFC North?"

"I think it's gonna be pretty lame, honestly. The Browns are the Browns. Until proven otherwise, they're always the Browns. Coach issues, quarterback issues, they lost their best player, no offense, decent defense, blah, blah, blah. 6 wins for Cleveland. 7 if they catch lightning in a bottle. Pittsburgh's no factor. Maybe Mike McCarthy lights a fire under them but I doubt it. Rogers will get hurt in week 6 and that will be the end of them. 8 wins would be a miracle for them. The Bengals are the "X" factor, of course. They're like the Ravens. If Burrow stays healthy for 17 games, they have a puncher's chance of going 10-7 or 11-6. Maybe if their chakras line up perfectly, they can go 12-5. But I don't see Burrow staying healthy. He never does. So, I'm banking on a 2-month injury for him and Cincy goes 8-9 or 9-8. The division is weak. The Ravens should win it playing blindfolded."

Greg: "As you know from our one round together this summer, I'm not very good at golf. I was kind of shocked at how my bad play didn't get on your nerves or the other two friends you brought. No one seemed to care that I was shooting 120 while you guys were all shooting 75 or 80. How do you manage to do that when you play with someone who is terrible at golf?"

DF: "It's easy. It's totally a no-brainer. We're just playing golf. What you shoot is really no factor at all, as long as you do it relatively quickly. Now, if you shoot 120 and you take forever to find your ball, play your shot and plumbob a 15 footer for triple bogey, we might have an issue. But you were fine the day we played. You hit it mostly straight, just not very far. So you were always in play. It wasn't a hassle at all to have you in the group. You were enjoyable to play with. Seriously."

Greg: "What's one swing tip or golf tip you would give to someone who wants to break 90 in a legitimate round of golf?"

DF: "I used to do a segment on my golf radio show dedicated to this very topic. "Breaking 90". In general, I think you're going to break 90 regularly if you can do these three things: First, no out of bounds tee balls. Most courses have 4 par 3's, which means 14 "driving" holes. Hitting all 14 drives in play, even if they're short, in the rough, etc. is the first key to breaking 90. Second, assuming you're playing 4 par 5's, nothing more than 6 on those four holes. Third, make two birdies. Just two. Figure out how to make two birdies in 18 holes, don't hit any tee balls out of bounds, and don't make anything higher than "6" on the par 5's. Do that, I would almost guarantee a score of 89 or lower."

Greg: "What about some sort of functional golf tip or swing tip, though? To help a player break 90?"

DF: "Well, that's tough without seeing someone's swing and someone's body type, but I'd say one rock solid tip to breaking 90 would be to flare your left foot at address about 5 degrees so your left hip and the left side of your body are already slightly open to the target. I find most amateurs have a "right aim" bias, for whatever reason. The more open you are at address, the more likely you are to get around to your left side more quickly."

Greg: "What's your crystal ball say about the FedEx Cup Playoffs?" (This question was posed to Drew on 8/14/26, before the PGA playoff tournament in Memphis was concluded)

DF: "Scheffler will figure out a way to stay in it the whole time. He'll probably even win once in the playoffs. He's had a great year, but got nipped a couple of times in sudden death playoffs. I also think we're going to hear from Wyndham Clark again. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins a tournament. The same with Xander Schauffele. He's lurking. Two other guys I think are going to have a big playoff are Viktor Hovland and Si Woo Kim. I just have a feeling about Si Woo. He's had an amazing year. I wouldn't be shocked to see him win the whole thing at East Lake in Atlanta."

Greg: "Just a guess on your part. How many majors will Scheffler win in his career? He as four right now, right?"

DF: "Yes, he has four. Two Masters, one British and one PGA. Needs a U.S. Open to complete the slam. I just had this exact conversation with a golf friend of mine last week. He thinks Scottie could get somewhere near 15 and tie Tiger. I don't see that happening.

Scottie is great. No two ways about it. But he's not Tiger. He's not going to win 15 majors. Now, could he get to the 8-10 range? Yes, I think so. He needs to clip one or two of them every year for the next four years. He went without a major win in 2026. He can't do that again next year or in 2027 and 2028 and expect to have a shot at winning 10 majors. But if he can win one next year and another in '27, all the sudden he's at 6 and just needs two more to get to 8. Look, those majors are really hard to win. Just ask Westwood, Montgomerie, Kuchar, Fowler and, these days, Sam Burns. Westwood and Fowler both could have won 4 or 5 majors if things would have swung their way, no pun intended. Burns could have two or three by now, too. They're hard to win. But if you pressed me for an official career prediction for Scottie, I say he wins 8 majors."

Greg: "Music always makes it way to the Morning Dish. What are you listening to these days?"

DF: "I go through these weird music periods where I fall into a rabbit hole and listen to old artists and groups to see, I guess, if their music still holds up over time. I don't listen to a whole lot of new music. But this summer I've gone back and listened to people like Fiona Apple, Pet Shop Boys, Van Halen, The Allman Brothers and Bob Seger, all of whom were riding high at some point over the last 50 years of my life. The only real new or more recent bands I've started following in 2026 are Congress The Band, Ben Howard and Sam Fender. Other than that, I don't hear much new stuff that interests me."

Greg: "If I asked you what album you've listened from start to finish the most, what would it be?"

DF: "Hmmmmm, I have to think about that one. I know what the four finalists are, I think. Darkness on the Edge of Town by Springsteen, Moving Pictures by Rush, Throwing Copper by Live and probably Aja by Steely Dan. I've listened to This Desert Life by Counting Crows a lot, too. But those are my top four. If you really made me give you one answer and it had to be right, I'm going to guess the answer is Throwing Copper, by Live. Front to back, I've probably listened to that album at least 2,000 times."

---

pga tour playoff week #2 predictions

The PGA Tour is in St. Louis this week for the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs at Bellerive Country Club.

Last week's winner was Scottie Scheffler, which came as no surprise to anyone, yet he wasn't factored into my personal wagering recommendations here because I treat Scottie the way I would have treated Tiger in his heyday.

Scottie is always a favorite to win. You're likely getting him at odds of +350 to +450 in any given week, so there's not a lot of return to be made, but there's no reason to think he couldn't win this week in St. Louis. He most certainly could.

This week I'm looking at three players, a longshot and one predicted winner. With only 50 players in the field and all 50 of them having great seasons, there's likely no real "longshot" per se. But I do like one guy off the beaten path this week, as you'll see below.

Anyway, here we go with our picks.

Hideki Matsuyama -- We recommend a Top 10 wager and Top 20 wager for him. He's finished inside the top 7 in his last four events, so he's either doing better than that this week or dropping down to something like a T-15 finish. But we have a feeling Matsuyama is going to continue to play well and could be in the hunt for the title on Sunday. He's +2700, which seems pretty high for a world class player who has made all 21 cuts this season.

Viktor Hovland -- He's also at +2700, which seems a bit more reasonable than having Hideki at that number. We're recommending the same wager. Top 10 and Top 20. It seems a little senseless to throw in Top 30 wagers this week, at least not on the three top picks we're giving you. Hovland seems poised for a big finish during these playoffs. Maybe it comes this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick -- If "Fitz" is going to make one final push for Player of the Year, this is the week to do it. It's a bit of a bomber's course off the tee and he has the length to handle Bellerive. He's quietly had a nice last month, even though he hasn't been in a final pairing. Top 10 and Top 20 bets for him. He's +2400 to win.

Kristoffer Reitan -- I saw his win bet number -- +8000 -- and had to double check to make sure it was right. 80-1 to win? Yes, please. If there's a longshot in the field who has the length off the tee to play with the big boys, it's Reitan. And a win here would go a long way in helping him potentially earn a spot on the European Ryder Cup team next fall. We're throwing some Top 10 and Top 20 money at him.

Wyndham Clark -- We're going with Clark to win this week, mainly because we think he's going to challenge Scottie for the title next week but also because we can't pass up 30-1 on a guy who is arguably the Player of the Year on the PGA Tour. He has clearly found something with his golf game. He's driving it great, hitting it close and his putting is better than ever. Wyndham to win this week.

A few of the guys pressing to stay alive for next week's TOUR Championship in East Lake are an interesting parlay wager this week.

We're going to bundle these three guys in a Top 20 parlay, meaning all three have to finish Top 20 or better to cash. Rickie Fowler, Justin Thomas and Kurt Kitayama.

Tomorrow here at #DMD, Randy Morgan breaks down the Ravens by position and tells you how they rank against the rest of the NFL.

Tuesday August 18, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4382

remembering o.j.

Everyone associated with the Ravens knew this day was coming at some point.

But that doesn't make it one bit easier to digest and handle.

After a lengthy, courageous fight with ALS, former Ravens player and front office staffer O.J. Brigance passed away yesterday at the age of 56.

The organization is, of course, beyond crushed.

O.J. has been a symbol of faith, courage and toughness over the last two decades. When people think of O.J. Brigance, those three words immediately come to mind.

He was a huge man of faith. I was blessed to meet O.J. several times over the last few years through my duties with the Fellowship of Christian Athletes, where the state of Maryland's FCA chapter has an award named after O.J. that's presented every year at our annual March banquet.

O.J. was courageous. He wasn't afraid to embrace the disease, wasn't afraid to represent it and wasn't afraid to share his story with anyone who wanted to listen. Now that...is courage.

And he was tough. Man was he tough. ALS is not for the meek of heart. It wants to fight. And you have to fight back. I've now known three people personally who fell to ALS. Most recently, a good friend from Calvert Hall, Jim Morgan. About 15 years ago, an old Clifton Park golfing friend, Ian Saunders. And, yesterday, O.J. Brigance.

All three of those men were fighters.

Back in the spring, Jim Morgan came out to one of my Calvert Hall golf matches. He was being ridden around in a cart, watching play, when I approached him.

"Hey buddy, how are you?" I asked.

He smiled that famous Jim Morgan smile and said, "They thought they were gonna take me to heaven yesterday but I told them, "No, not yet. I'll let you know when it's time."

Jim would always say, "They're picking a fight with the wrong guy."

15 years ago, ALS picked a fight with O.J. Brigance and he clearly wound up the winner. He battled the disease, promoted his fight with the disease and did it all with a smile and a remarkable attitude.

The Ravens will most certainly honor O.J.'s memory in a special way during the 2026 season.

He was a player on the 2000 Super Bowl team and a staffer when the Ravens won their second title in the 2012 season. Not many people have two championship rings with the Ravens! O.J. does !!!

"The word that comes to mind for me with O.J. is strength," says local media member and WBAL show host Glenn Clark of Glenn Clark Radio.

"I was at an event a few years ago and I wanted my kids to meet him," Clark remembers. "They were young and didn't know how to approach him. He was immediately disarming."

'What, are you afraid of me because I'm half machine?' Brigance said to my kids. 'You're not too big, I could probably beat you up.'

"He was funny and never allowed ALS to define him despite being the very public face of the disease. He was the primary counselor to a generation of young Ravens who would use their personal time in the building to visit with him. What a wonderful example O.J. provided to them and all of us."

With the O's firmly back in the playoff race, we're going to start a weekly feature here at #DMD called "The Next 12 Games". We'll take the 5-6 teams fighting for the three wild card spots and we'll look ahead to what they have coming up, schedule wise.

Even with last night's disheartening loss in Tampa Bay, the Orioles are in a nice spot with 37 games remaining. They're 61-64 this morning. To finish at 85-77, they need to go 24-13 in those games. Given their future schedule, that is not impossible in the least.

So, we're looking at everyone's schedule in the A.L. who is fighting for a wild card spot.

It's either that or we can fuss and fight about Tyler Loop missing a 49-yard field goal in a meaningless exhibition football game last Saturday.

Here we go. In no particular order, really.

Boston (67-58) -- Hosting Arizona for three games this week. Home for three more against the Giants. Then they're in Miami for three and the Bronx for four. Schedule difficulty: Moderate, 6.5

ORIOLES (61-64) -- Home for three vs. the Yankees this week. Home for three more vs. Tampa Bay. At St. Louis for three. At the Athletics for three. Schedule difficulty: Tough, 7

Texas (61-64) -- Hosting Washington for three games this week. Home for three more vs. the Angels. At the White Sox for three. And at Milwaukee for three. Schedule difficulty: Moderate, 5

Cleveland (60-65) -- Hosting the Giants for three games this week. At Colorado for three. At the Angels for three. Home vs. Kansas City for three. Schedule difficulty: Very light, 3

Detroit (61-64) -- At Pittsburgh for three this week. At Kansas City for three. Home vs. Tampa Bay for three. Home vs. the L.A. Dodgers for three. Schedule difficulty: Tough, 6.5

Toronto (61-65) -- At Tampa Bay for three this week. At N.Y. Yankees for three. Home vs. Kansas City for three. Home vs. Seattle for three. Schedule difficulty: Moderate, 6

Minnesota (61-65) -- Home vs. Atlanta for three this week. At San Diego for three. At Athletics for three. Home vs. Chicago White Sox for three. Schedule difficulty: Moderate, 6

So, for this week and into next, it looks like Cleveland has the easiest go of it. They face four teams who are all out of the playoff race. They really should win 9 of those 12.

The Birds have a golden opportunity, facing the Yankees and Rays in Baltimore and then heading to St. Louis and Sacramento (A's). 8-4 in those 12 games is very possible. 9-3 isn't out of the question depending on how the 6 games go vs. the Yankees and Rays.

Remember, it's a race to 85 wins. If you get to 85 wins, you're going to the playoffs. It might even only take 84 wins in the American League.

	"Randy On The O's"
Randy Morgan takes #DMD readers through the recent week in Orioles baseball as the Birds try to return to the A.L. playoffs after missing the post-season in 2025. For more of Randy's work, please visit his site: https://dualeights.com/

the orioles’ 10 best-performing prospects in '26

Statistics through August 14, 2026.

The Orioles emerged from the trade deadline with a much different farm system.

Anthony Eyanson immediately became one of the organization’s top prospects as the headliner of the Adley Rutschman trade, while several other acquisitions added depth to a system that had thinned out after years of graduations, trades and disappointing development.

Rankings are useful for understanding upside, but they do not necessarily tell us who is playing the best right now. A highly drafted teenager in Low-A may have considerably more long-term value than a 24-year-old succeeding at Triple-A, even though the older player is having the better season.

This list is based primarily on performance. I considered production, underlying indicators, age relative to level, sample size and proximity to the majors. For hitters, that means looking beyond batting average and home runs to plate discipline and power production.

For pitchers, strikeouts, walks, WHIP and home-run suppression matter more than ERA alone.

The results are particularly encouraging on the mound.

MLB Pipeline’s updated rankings now have Eyanson, Joseph Dzierwa and Caden Hunter all among baseball’s top 100 prospects. Dzierwa and Hunter were both drafted by the O’s just last summer.

Considering this organization’s long-running difficulty developing starting pitching, that may be the most important development anywhere in the farm system this season.

I’ve broken the ten into the top five arms and top five bats.

Arms --

1. Joseph Dzierwa, LHP | Double-A Chesapeake

Age: 22

Draft: 2025, second round, 58th overall

Acquired: Drafted by the Orioles

Estimated MLB arrival: 2027

Dzierwa has delivered the best combination of volume, command and missed bats anywhere in the Orioles system. Through 22 appearances and 20 starts between High-A and Double-A, the 6-foot-8 left-hander is 8-2 with a 2.01 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 132 strikeouts in 112 innings. He has now gone 17 consecutive innings without allowing an earned run after six more scoreless innings against Reading on Wednesday.

As recently as August 7, Dzierwa’s 2.12 ERA ranked second among all full-season minor- league pitchers and his 125 strikeouts were tied for second. He has since lowered the ERA to 2.01 and added seven more strikeouts.

Dzierwa is not overpowering hitters simply because he throws 100 mph. His fastball has generally operated in the low-to-mid 90s, though he has touched 96. What makes it play better is the delivery.

At 6-foot-8 with a low three-quarter arm slot, he creates an unusual angle that makes the ball difficult to pick up. His best pitch is a fading low-80s changeup, which MLB Pipeline grades as a 60, and his command of the fastball-changeup combination allows the two pitches to play off each other.

That is also the lingering question. His slider is improving, but Dzierwa’s success is still driven heavily by two pitches. Major-league starters generally need another reliable weapon once hitters have seen them multiple times. The combination of deception, command and the changeup gives him an unusually high floor, but the development of the breaking stuff may determine whether he becomes a mid-rotation starter or something better.

For now, the performance is difficult to argue against. Eyanson may have the superior collection of raw pitches and Hunter may have produced the more dramatic breakout, but neither has matched Dzierwa’s combination of innings, command and sustained dominance.

MLB Pipeline now lists his ETA as 2027, meaning he should enter next year with a chance to pitch his way into the Orioles’ plans.

2. Anthony Eyanson, RHP | Double-A Chesapeake

Age: 21

Draft: 2025, third round, 87th overall by Boston

Acquired: From the Red Sox in the 2026 Adley Rutschman trade

Estimated MLB arrival: 2027

Eyanson is the highest-ranked prospect on this list and the most important player acquired at the deadline. The Orioles did not trade the former face of their rebuild to acquire organizational depth. Eyanson needs to become an impact major-league pitcher for the Rutschman deal to have any chance of being remembered positively in Baltimore.

So far, there is plenty to like.

In his first professional season, Eyanson is 6-0 with a 1.60 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 110 strikeouts in 78⅔ innings. That works out to 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings. After dominating for Boston affiliates, he has continued missing bats since arriving at Chesapeake. MLB Pipeline now ranks him No. 49 overall in baseball and second in the Orioles system.

The stuff explains the strikeouts. Eyanson’s fastball has made a substantial jump since college. At LSU it generally sat 92-93 mph and touched 98. In professional baseball it has been sitting around 95-96 and has reached 100, with improved carry that makes it a considerably more dangerous pitch.

The fastball is not even his best offering. His tight mid-80s slider receives a 65 grade from Pipeline and can generate swings and misses both inside and outside the strike zone. He also has an upper-70s curveball that can flash plus and is developing a mid-80s splitter. That gives him three secondary pitches with legitimate major-league potential rather than requiring him to survive on velocity alone.

That arsenal is why Eyanson has the highest ceiling of the pitchers on this list. The question is command. He has been more willing to nibble than Dzierwa and has not consistently located every secondary pitch. The splitter in particular remains a work in progress.

That is a developmental issue rather than a glaring weakness. A 21-year-old already getting Double-A hitters out with this level of stuff has time to refine the edges.

Dzierwa is ahead in these rankings based on his performance this season and the fact that he has thrown 33 more innings with exceptional command while producing similarly dominant results. If the question were simply which Orioles pitching prospect I would most want five years from now, Eyanson probably gets the nod.

If the fastball gains hold and the command improves, there is legitimate No. 2 starter upside here.

3. Caden Hunter, LHP | Double-A Chesapeake

Age: 22

Draft: 2025, sixth round, 184th overall

Acquired: Drafted by the Orioles

Estimated MLB arrival: 2027

No Orioles prospect has improved his standing more dramatically this season than Caden Hunter.

The 2025 sixth-rounder has a 2.04 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and an absurd 128 strikeouts in 84 innings across three levels. That is 13.7 strikeouts per nine innings. Even after finally encountering a rough outing at Double-A that pushed his ERA above 2.00, the overall body of work remains exceptional.

Before his promotion to Chesapeake, the underlying numbers were even more impressive than the ERA. Hunter carried a 38.1 percent strikeout rate, third-best in the minors among pitchers with at least 65 innings, while his 2.66 FIP and xFIP both ranked second. Those numbers demonstrate that he was controlling plate appearances himself.

The Orioles have also apparently unlocked more velocity. Hunter worked primarily in the low 90s during his season at USC. This year he has reached 97 mph, and he plays particularly well at the top of the strike zone because of his approach angle.

The encouraging part is that he increasingly looks like more than a fastball-heavy college lefty overwhelming inexperienced hitters. His mid-80s slider and changeup have both developed into above-average offerings, giving him a legitimate chance to remain in the rotation rather than eventually being pushed toward relief.

There is still more projection involved here than with Dzierwa or Eyanson. Hunter only reached Double-A at the end of July, so advanced hitters are just beginning to get multiple looks at him. His walk rate has also been less pristine than Dzierwa’s, leaving another area for refinement.

But the strikeout ability is impossible to dismiss as small-sample noise at this point. One hundred twenty-eight strikeouts in 84 innings across three levels is a season-long pattern. Hunter entered the year outside MLB Pipeline’s Orioles Top 30.

He is now fourth in the organization and No. 98 in baseball. That is an enormous developmental jump in four months. Turning a sixth-round pick into a legitimate starting-pitching prospect would be important for any organization. For this organization, it would be especially notable.

4. Nestor German, RHP | Triple-A Norfolk

Age: 24

Draft: 2023, 11th round, 331st overall

Acquired: Drafted by the Orioles

Estimated MLB arrival: Late 2026

German’s numbers are nowhere near as eye-popping as those of the three pitchers above him, but level matters.

Through 23 appearances and 21 starts for Norfolk, German has a 3.85 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and 115 strikeouts in 112⅓ innings. That works out to 9.2 strikeouts per nine, and only nine of the 104 hits he has allowed have left the park.

A 3.85 ERA at Triple-A is a good season, not merely an acceptable one. German currently ranks fifth among qualified International League pitchers in ERA. He is doing it against lineups filled with older players, former major leaguers and hitters one phone call away from the majors rather than dominating younger competition in A-ball.

German’s profile is almost the opposite of Eyanson’s. He is not going to light up a radar gun. His fastball generally sits 92-94 mph and can flash a little higher. What makes him effective is the assortment and his ability to locate it.

His best secondary pitch is an overhand curveball that has generated strong whiff rates, complemented by a harder slider and splitter. MLB Pipeline considers his command one of his better attributes.

There is probably not a frontline starter hiding here. German profiles more naturally as a fourth or fifth starter who keeps hitters off balance by mixing pitches and locating rather than overpowering them.

One of the O’s recurring problems over the past several seasons has been what happens after the first five starters. Injuries inevitably force the sixth, seventh and eighth options into meaningful innings. Too often Baltimore has responded with pitchers who simply were not good enough.

German looks increasingly capable of being one of those next options. His ceiling is lower than Dzierwa, Eyanson or Hunter, but his proximity gives him a chance to matter sooner.

5. Yaqui Rivera, RHP | Triple-A Norfolk

Age: 23

Draft: International free agent, signed by Miami in 2021

Acquired: Player to be named later in the 2022 Tanner Scott/Cole Sulser trade with Miami

Estimated MLB arrival: Late 2026 or 2027

Rivera is the least conventional pitcher in this group. He has made eight starts this season but has mostly worked out of the bullpen, which is probably where his major-league future lies. Across Double-A and Triple-A, Rivera has a 3.25 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 83 strikeouts in 63⅔ innings. That comes to 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings, which is the number that keeps him interesting.

He is not a pure velocity reliever. Rivera’s fastball generally works in the low-to-mid 90s rather than sitting in the upper 90s. His carrying tools are the movement on his secondaries, particularly a sweeping slider and fading changeup. FanGraphs has identified plus movement on both pitches while projecting him most likely as an optionable reliever.

His issue remains control. Rivera has shown stretches where the walks disappear and his stuff becomes extremely difficult to square up, including a dominant run at Double-A earlier this season. At other times, the command is shaky enough to put too many runners on base.

That distinction probably determines whether he becomes a trustworthy seventh-inning reliever or spends time traveling back and forth between Baltimore and Norfolk.

Still, there is enough swing-and-miss ability here to warrant an opportunity. Rivera originally came to Baltimore as the player to be named later in the Tanner Scott and Cole Sulser deal, which would make developing him into even a competent major-league reliever a nice secondary return from a trade made more than four years ago.

Bats --

1. Ethan Anderson, C/1B | Double-A Chesapeake, currently on rehab at High-A Frederick

Age: 22

Draft: 2024, second round, 61st overall

Acquired: Drafted by the Orioles

Estimated MLB arrival: 2027

Anderson remains the best-performing upper-level position player in the system even though an injury cost him more than a month.

In 68 games at Chesapeake, the switch-hitting catcher and first baseman has hit .270/.369/.520 with 17 home runs, 37 walks and 58 strikeouts. That gives him a .250 isolated-power mark while maintaining a strikeout rate below 20 percent. He has managed impact power without adopting the type of all-or-nothing approach that frequently derails minor-league sluggers.

His power also stacks up well against the rest of the Eastern League. Despite playing only 68 Double-A games because of the injury, Anderson’s 17 homers still rank tied for 15th in the league. Everyone ahead of him has had considerably more opportunities to accumulate them.

There was more good news Friday.

Anderson began a rehab assignment at Frederick and immediately went 4-for-4 with a two-run homer, three RBI and a stolen base.

The most important question remains defensive. Anderson’s offensive standard changes dramatically depending on whether he can remain a catcher. A switch-hitting catcher producing this kind of power and on-base ability is potentially an everyday player. A first baseman needs to hit considerably more to provide the same value.

Samuel Basallo obviously complicates the path to regular catching time in Baltimore, but that does not make Anderson redundant. A player capable of catching, covering first base and producing power from both sides gives a roster plenty of options.

The bat has done enough this year that the positional question is increasingly worth asking.

2. Brandon Butterworth, INF | Triple-A Norfolk

Age: 23

Draft: 2024, 12th round, 360th overall by San Diego

Acquired: From the Padres in the 2025 Ryan O’Hearn/Ramón Laureano trade

Estimated MLB arrival: 2027

Butterworth’s season became even more interesting this week when the Orioles promoted him to Triple-A Norfolk on August 14.

Across his stops this year, Butterworth is hitting .292 with a .403 on-base percentage and .917 OPS, ten home runs and 17 stolen bases. There is a little bit of everything in the profile.

Butterworth gets on base, has shown more power than expected and can run. The power is the development that makes the season particularly interesting because he entered professional baseball looking more like a versatile contact-oriented player than someone likely to threaten double-digit home runs in a shortened season.

He also offers defensive flexibility across the infield with his most realistic major-league path as a multi-position player rather than a star at one position. He still has a relatively small sample size.

Injuries have limited the season, and we still need to see whether this new level of power carries into Triple-A against pitchers better capable of exploiting holes in his swing. Double-A performance can make a player interesting. Triple-A performance can put him one injury away from joining the O’s.

Butterworth was one of six prospects acquired from San Diego for O’Hearn and Laureano last July. Boston Bateman and Tyson Neighbors received more prospect attention at the time, but Butterworth is increasingly making his own case as a useful piece of that return.

3. Frederick Bencosme, INF | Double-A Chesapeake

Age: 23

Draft: International free agent

Acquired: Signed by the Orioles in 2020

Estimated MLB arrival: 2027

Bencosme has the least spectacular offensive profile among the top Double-A bats, but perhaps the most balanced.

He is hitting .268 with a .361 on-base percentage and .793 OPS, 11 home runs and 13 stolen bases. That is not star-level production, but it represents a substantial amount of offensive value without relying entirely on one tool.

The on-base percentage is probably the most important number. Bencosme is not simply chasing hits to create his value. He works counts, puts the ball in play and has enough speed to add something once he reaches base. The power has also improved considerably from the light-hitting profile he showed earlier in his career.

That creates a reasonably clear path to becoming a useful utility player. Bencosme has experience around the infield and does not need to hit 25 home runs to justify a roster spot if he can provide competitive at-bats, defensive flexibility and competent baserunning.

The ceiling is the question. There is no obvious carrying tool here that screams everyday major leaguer. Balanced prospects can become valuable bench players, but they can also stall when each individual tool is merely average.

Considering the Orioles signed him as an international free agent in 2020 rather than spending premium draft capital, reaching that useful-utility-player outcome would still represent a development win.

4. Creed Willems, C/1B | Triple-A Norfolk

Age: 23

Draft: 2021, eighth round, 227th overall

Acquired: Drafted by the Orioles

Estimated MLB arrival: 2027

Willems has quietly put together a solid Triple-A season. He is batting .268 with a .356 on-base percentage and .811 OPS, 18 home runs and 56 RBI. He homered again Friday night for Norfolk.

His production is more interesting as a catcher. MLB Pipeline still gives Willems a 55 power grade and a 65 arm, the latter the best throwing-arm grade in the Orioles system. The questions are whether he can make enough contact and whether his receiving will allow him to remain behind the plate.

If the answer to the second question is yes, an .800-plus OPS with left-handed power can absolutely play at catcher. If Willems ends up primarily at first base, the offensive standard becomes much higher.

That is the recurring issue with several hitters in this system. Anderson, Willems and Basallo all occupy some combination of catcher, first base and DH, and there are only so many plate appearances available at those positions.

The solution is simple enough. Keep the players who hit.

Willems has not produced at a level that demands a major-league promotion, but he has improved enough to keep himself relevant. An eighth-round pick becoming a left-handed power bat capable of handling some catching duties would be a perfectly useful outcome.

5. Aron Estrada, 2B | Double-A Chesapeake

Age: 21

Draft: International free agent

Acquired: Signed by the Orioles in 2022

Estimated MLB arrival: 2027

Estrada’s season is becoming harder to ignore.

The switch-hitting 21-year-old is batting .276/.312/.478 with 19 home runs and 63 RBI in 100 games for Chesapeake. His latest homer came Friday night against top Phillies pitching prospect Gage Wood, giving Estrada home runs in three consecutive starts.

His 19 long balls are tied for sixth in the Eastern League and second-most anywhere in the Orioles farm system. That is legitimate power production from a young middle infielder competing against older players. Estrada’s age remains an important part of the evaluation. A 21-year-old holding his own at Double-A is doing something different from a 24- or 25-year-old producing the same numbers.

The reason he remains fifth among the bats is obvious when you look one column to the right of his home runs on the league leaderboard: 20 walks.

Estrada has walked only 20 times against 72 strikeouts. His .276 batting average therefore turns into only a .312 on-base percentage. Better pitchers will eventually figure out which pitches he is unwilling to take and force him to prove he can adjust.

That does not mean an aggressive approach cannot work. Estrada has enough bat-to-ball ability and growing power to make it plausible. But he is making the path considerably narrower than it needs to be.

If the plate discipline improves even modestly, the combination of age, power, contact and middle-infield experience becomes much more interesting. If it does not, Triple-A pitchers may expose him quickly.

Baltimore signed Estrada as an international free agent in January 2022. Four years later, he is one of the youngest productive hitters in the upper levels of the system. There is still plenty of development left, but there is also something worth developing.

Monday August 17, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4381

keep waiting and you're gonna need a payment plan

Remember in the old days, when people used to go to the library, about every 3 or 4 years, the library system would have a day where you could bring in all of your overdue books and just pay one small lump sum to return them all?

These days, Baltimore city has gun buy-back days and parking-fine-amnesty-days where you can participate and absolve yourself of prosecution along the way.

We're on the verge of doing that here at #DMD, except we're doing it in a nice way.

You know, of course, the surging Orioles have won 3 straight over Tampa Bay and are now -- ready for this? -- in 3rd place in the American League wild card race.

In other words, if the playoffs started today, the Birds would be in.

Now, here's where the fun starts.

You have one chance, today, to get on the bandwagon and move forward with the rest of us faithful followers of the orange-feathered-flock.

I've been telling you for a month now that the season was far from over. Did it look bleak? It did. Was it a longshot? It was.

But that's why Ted Lasso put that "Believe" sign up in the AFC Richmond locker room once upon a time. You simply have to believe that maybe, just maybe, the tide is going to turn for you.

The tide has turned for the Orioles.

Are they home free? Of course not. There's a lot of baseball left to play.

But they're turning it around at precisely the right time. Their starting pitching is excellent. The bullpen is decent enough. And here of late, the offense is starting to show signs of real life.

Now, the defense and the base running? It's lousy. It has been all season. It's probably not getting any better over the next six weeks.

We're not talking about a World Series champion here, I don't think. But we are talking about a potential playoff team if things continue to shake out the way they have of late.

And for that, you should be happy.

But some of you doubted so much and were ready to pack it in so quickly that you're probably afraid to ask for a seat on the bandwagon.

It's OK. Go ahead and ask. In the Comments section, just ask. "Can I get back on the bandwagon?"

Today and today only, we're letting you back on free of charge. Right now it's $80. If they beat the Rays tonight and sweep all four games, it's $90 tomorrow. By the time they beat the Yankees three straight this week, you're going to need a payment plan for the bandwagon.

I'm telling you now, it's like confession at church. Come in, ask nicely, and you shall be exempt from ridicule or scorn.

But.........there's a catch.

If you don't get in today, that's it. No more chances. No more "bandwagon days" where we make you this offer.

Do you think the O's are indeed "back" and are going to be fighting for a playoff spot through the end of September? If so, speak now.

Just go to the Comments section and say it: "Can I get back on the bandwagon?"

No one's going to make fun of you.

I promise.

But today's the day. The offer is gone tomorrow.

Scottie's back. In a big way. And just in time, apparently. Scottie Scheffler roasted the field yesterday in scorching Memphis, winning the FedEx Cup playoff opener at TPC Southwind by a whopping 8 shots.

Scheffler now moves on to St. Louis with the others in the Top 50 for this week's second event of the playoff schedule at famed Bellerive CC.

Sadly, Jordan Spieth isn't going to St. Louis. His back nine stumbles on Sunday cost him a shot at making the field at Bellerive and Spieth will bow out gracefully after finishing 52nd and falling outside of the Top 50.

For Scheffler, the victory was his 2nd of the season -- along with two playoff losses -- and catapults him firmly back into the discussion for Player of the Year honors. He doesn't have a major victory like the other favorite, Wyndham Clark, but he has been far more consistent than Clark. Matthew Fitzpatrick has three wins, but one of those was a "team win" in New Orleans.

For Spieth, the failure to advance and not secure his spot in the lucrative and important "Signature Events" in 2026 is just another log on a fire that is just about burnt out.

It's probably fair to say there's no one in professional golf more in need of a win to reboot their career than Jordan Spieth.

But his golf, at least the kind he's playing these days, is simply not good enough to sniff one.

Some of his shots gained numbers are decent. He's middle of the pack'ish in shots gained: total, putting and driving. But he's woefully off the pace in the other critical categories like accuracy, greens in regulation and proximity to the hole.

When it comes to stats and data, most PGA Tour experts will tell you anything inside the Top 20 of any category is elite and anything inside the Top 40 of any category is very good. Of the 19 statistical categories, he ranks inside the Top 40 in just one; scrambling, where he ranks 38th.

Spieth's accuracy off the tee is the most alarming malfunction in his game. Everything starts from there. When he drives it in the rough, he can't reach the greens in regulation. And when he can't reach the greens in regulation, he can't make birdies. Or even pars, on some occasions.

He was once a great player, albeit over a decade ago now.

With three major wins in his first five years on TOUR, it looked like Spieth was potentially going to be the game's next big, bright star.

That ship has sailed.

He's not back to square one, per se, but his 2027 season will be critical in terms of keeping his TOUR card. A win somewhere along the way next season might be necessary.

Meanwhile, the Top 50 guys all move on to St. Louis this week, where Scheffler will look to almost seal his 5th straight Player of the Year award with a win.

Wouldn't that something? Scheffler wins twice within 7 days while Spieth sits home in dire need of a victory.

	"Randy On The O's"
Randy Morgan takes #DMD readers through the recent week in Orioles baseball as the Birds try to return to the A.L. playoffs after missing the post-season in 2025.

Week Record: 4-2

Season Record: 61-63

AL East Standing: 4th (13.5 GB of TB, 0.5 up for 3rd WC)

Player of the Week: Pete Alonso - .545 AVG, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 1.494 OPS

And just like that, the Orioles hold the final wild card spot.

I am fascinated every time I look at the standings and see them still in contention.

The O’s remain an exceedingly mediocre team, but in an exceedingly mediocre American League, one four game win streak is all you need to jump to the top of the dog pile wild card race.

The Birds opened the week by losing two of three in Minnesota to another mediocre team directly competing with them for a Wild Card spot. Coming off a trade deadline where the front office had already sold, another lost series to a team they needed to catch seemed like it might finally push the season toward its logical conclusion.

Instead, they went to Tampa Bay and took three in a row from the best team in the American League. The 4-2 week leaves the O’s at 61-63 and, somehow, in sole ownership of the final American League Wild Card spot, after the Rangers lost to the A’s Sunday afternoon.

We can argue about whether a team two games under .500 deserves to be in a playoff race. But those are the breaks, and the O’s are there now.

The week started with the recently departed Dean Kremer making the Orioles look a little silly for trading him. Kremer held his former team to one hit and one run over seven innings while striking out seven in a 9-5 Minnesota win.

Trevor Rogers was nowhere near as efficient, allowing two runs in four innings while walking two and hitting two batters. The game was still manageable until the seventh, when the bullpen and defense combined to surrender five runs, capped by a three-run Josh Bell homer.

Coby Mayo drove in three in a late rally, but most of the offense came after the game had already gotten away.

The bats showed up much earlier Tuesday. Gunnar Henderson opened the game with a single and Pete Alonso immediately followed with a two-run homer. Gunnar added a two-run shot in the second and Christian Encarnacion-Strand launched a 460-foot solo homer in the third to give the O’s all five of their runs before Minnesota had recorded nine outs.

Brandon Young wasn’t dominant, but he managed to put together six innings of two-run ball, only one earned, in the 5-2 win. Gunnar finished 3-for-5 with a homer and double while Alonso went 3-for-4.

Wednesday was another frustrating missed opportunity. Baltimore built a 4-1 lead behind a first- inning run and a three-run Dylan Beavers homer in the third, but Shane Baz couldn’t hold it. He was knocked out after just three innings, allowing five runs on nine hits as Minnesota answered virtually every Orioles rally.

The Twins eventually pulled away for a 7-5 win to take the series.

For a team already playing with almost no margin for error, losing two of three to a direct Wild Card competitor was a gut punch.

Following Thursday’s off day, the Birds faced an even tougher assignment in Tampa Bay against a Rays team riding a nine-game winning streak.

The O’s ended that rather emphatically.

Gunnar led the way going 4-for-4 with a double, two-run homer and two runs scored in a 6-5 win. Dylan Beavers delivered the biggest hit, coming off the bench for a go-ahead two-run single in the seventh.

Just as encouraging was the return of Chris Bassitt, who made his first start since going on the injured list in June and held Tampa to two runs over 5.1 innings. Josh Walker earned the win and Cam Sanders recorded the final out after the Rays made things uncomfortable in the ninth.

Saturday was more stressful. Pete Alonso homered and another solo shot from Encarnacion- Strand helped the O’s carry a 3-2 lead into the ninth, only for the Rays to tie it against Andrew Kittredge.

This time the Birds responded immediately. Colton Cowser started the tenth as the automatic runner and Tyler O’Neill singled him home before Sanders escaped a jam in the bottom half. Alonso finished 3-for-5 in the 4-3 win.

The Orioles finally made it easy on Sunday. After falling behind 1-0, Jackson Holliday tied the game in the fifth and Alonso followed with a two-run double. Then the offense exploded for seven runs in the sixth. Cowser hit a two-run homer, Holliday doubled home two more and Encarnacion-Strand cleared the bases with a three-run double as eight consecutive Orioles reached with two outs.

Trevor Rogers bounced back nicely from his rough outing in Minnesota, allowing two runs over six innings while striking out six and walking one. Alex Hoppe, Grant Wolfram and Albert Suárez combined for three scoreless innings to finish the 10-2 win.

The difference from last week was obvious. A week ago, the Orioles offense spent most of its time wasting strong starting pitching performances. This week they scored 35 runs in six games and reached at least four runs in every one.

More importantly, a lot of that production came from hitters who are supposed to carry the lineup. Alonso was on fire. Gunnar had his best week in quite some time. Cowser hit two home runs in only 12 at-bats, good for a 1.166 OPS, while Encarnacion-Strand also homered twice and led the club with seven RBI.

Does three wins against Tampa erase everything wrong with this team? Obviously not. They are still 61-63, already traded several useful major leaguers and have an extremely difficult schedule remaining.

But they are also currently in a playoff spot.

This season refuses to die.

Player of the Week --

There really wasn’t much debate for the award this week.

Pete Alonso went 12-for-22 with a double, two home runs, five RBI, four walks and a hit-by- pitch. That works out to a ridiculous .545/.630/.864 slash line and a 1.494 OPS. He reached base 17 times in 27 plate appearances.

The consistency was almost as impressive as the raw production. Alonso had three hits Tuesday, two Wednesday, two Friday, three more Saturday and then reached base four times Sunday.

His Tuesday homer gave the Orioles a lead two batters into the game. His Saturday homer broke a 1-1 tie. Sunday’s two-run double gave the O’s their first lead and opened the door for the blowout that followed.

This is what they paid him to do. The Orioles needed a dependable middle-of-the-order hitter who could punish mistakes, drive in runs and provide some stability while many of the younger hitters went through their inevitable ups and downs.

Gunnar Henderson deserves the first honorable mention and, based strictly on the numbers, was not that far behind. Gunnar went 8-for-22 with five walks, two doubles, two homers and four RBI, good for a .364/.481/.727 line and 1.208 OPS.

His season has been one of the biggest disappointments of the year, so one strong week doesn’t suddenly resolve the larger concern. But this looked much more like the Gunnar the Orioles expected to build their lineup around.

He had three hits Tuesday and four more Friday, with a homer and double in each game. If the Orioles are actually going to make this ridiculous Wild Card run last into September, they need this version of Gunnar far more often.

Trevor Rogers mixed a difficult start with a strong one, working ten innings across his two starts, allowing four earned runs on 11 hits with ten strikeouts and three walks, good for a 3.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP.

Down on the Farm --

At Norfolk, Enrique Bradfield Jr. had one of his better weeks since reaching AAA, hitting .389 and reaching base at a .542 clip.

Perhaps more importantly for his particular profile, he drew six walks in 24 plate appearances and stole three bases.

He only slugged .444, but Bradfield isn’t going to reach Baltimore because he suddenly turns into a 25-homer hitter. The offensive formula is getting on base enough for his elite speed and defense to matter. This week was a pretty good example of what that can look like.

Heston Kjerstad also had a productive week, going 7-for-23 with two home runs and four RBI for a .304/.346/.565 line and .911 OPS. Whatever the organization’s long-term evaluation of Kjerstad has become, he continues to produce enough at Triple-A that his name shouldn’t completely disappear from the conversation.

On the mound, one of the more relevant names had a week he would probably like back.

Michael Forret, reacquired in the Tyler Wells trade and potentially part of the 2027 pitching picture, allowed ten hits and eight earned runs in five innings. One start doesn’t change his prospect evaluation, but given how much the organization may need from young starters next season, his progress at Norfolk is worth watching closely.

At Chesapeake, Aron Estrada apparently decided singles were inefficient. He went 9-for-19 with five home runs and ten RBI, slugging 1.316 and producing a 1.792 OPS. Five homers in one week is going to stand out regardless of prospect status or sample size.

Dom Keegan wasn’t far behind in the power department with three homers and a 1.157 OPS, while Wehiwa Aloy hit .318 with a homer and two stolen bases.

The more important organizational news may still be on the mound. Joseph Dzierwa delivered another excellent outing, allowing only one hit over six scoreless innings while striking out seven. He did walk three, but the overall result continues what has been one of the better pitching seasons anywhere in the Orioles system.

Anthony Eyanson was good rather than dominant in his second week with Chesapeake, allowing two earned runs over 5⅓ innings with seven strikeouts. The four walks are the part to watch. Eyanson continues to demonstrate the swing-and-miss stuff that made him the centerpiece of the Rutschman trade, but the command remains less polished than Dzierwa’s.

That is what makes the combination interesting. Dzierwa currently looks like the steadier upper- level starter.

Eyanson probably owns the greater pure-stuff ceiling. If both continue on anything resembling their current trajectories, the Orioles may finally have something this organization has lacked for years: multiple legitimate starting pitching prospects approaching the majors at the same time.

Tomorrow here at #DMD, Randy looks at how the Orioles top prospects have fared so far in the 2026 season.

Sunday August 16, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4380

that's the way to start the minter era!

OK, as I type this the Ravens are leading the Eagles, 7-0.

Full disclosure. I'm out of the area and not physically able to watch the game, but I'm following along online and keeping up with the events of the first half.

The headline above is click bait. Well, not really, because you came here first, then read the headline second.

So, I guess that makes the headline, "catchy". But I don't know, as I write this, if the Ravens are going to win or lose the game.

Editor's note: They won, 24-7. It was, as most pre-season games go, uneventful, but 2026 draft pick Ja'Kobi Lane continued his impressive rookie training camp with three receptions and a TD in the win.

From all accounts, on a very serious note, everything went well last night except for Tyler Loop. The Ravens kicker missed a 49-yard field goal that had the crowd uneasy before they finished their first beer.

But if we're being serious, it's also fair to point out that nothing really matters in a pre-season game. As long as no one of value got hurt, the game was a modest success by any standards.

I've noted here over the last few months that it feels like something is missing, enthusiasm wise, as it relates to the Ravens. It's been that way for a while, though. It's not a 2026 thing.

That said, I'll confess that I'm really looking forward to this upcoming season. And, yes, most of that is tied into the new coaching staff to see how they handle the rigors of the AFC North. I have a lot of faith in Eric DeCosta that he picked the right head coach.

And I have a lot of faith in the head coach that he, in turn, picked the right offensive coordinator and right defensive coordinator.

Whether Jesse Minter can "pull a Macdonald" and win the Super Bowl within his first two seasons in Baltimore -- the way Mike Macdonald did in Seattle -- remains to be seen. But I fancy their chances of doing some real damage in the AFC in 2026. If Lamar stays healthy and the defensive secondary plays up to snuff, I'm excited for what January might bring.

This feels like the conversation we're going to be hearing regularly next week here in The Land of Pleasant Living.

"Hello, Orioles bandwagon, how can I direct your call?"

"Uhhhh, yeah, hi there. What's today's rate for a bandwagon seat after last night's second straight win over Tampa Bay?"

"Sir, today those seats are $60."

"Bbbbuuuuutttt, they were just $50 last week, weren't they?"

"Yes, sir, they were."

"Why the increased price then?"

"Well, the team is getting better and the bandwagon is starting to fill up again. Two weeks ago, it was about a quarter-full. But now that the team is winning and beating up on the team with the best record in the American League people suddenly want back on the bandwagon."

"I see. It's just tough to cough up $60 when last week it was $50."

-------Silence ---------

"Actually, sir, they just went up to $63.50. We sold a bunch of seats in the last 20 minutes so the supply is starting to decrease."

"$63.50 now? You people are crooks. No way I'm paying that."

"OK, well we'll talk to you next week. After they go 5-1 against the Yankees and Rays, you'll have to pay $100."

On another fully serious note, the Birds are now in a dead-heat for that third and final wild card spot in the American League after last night's 4-3 thriller over the Rays.

It's almost time to start scoreboard watching the other teams in the race.

That's when you know it's serious.

Bandwagon seats, anyone?

I'm excited to see how the final round of today's FedEx Playoffs event goes, with Scottie Scheffler holding a two-shot lead over Sam Burns and Sungjae Im.

Scheffler is 13 under par and both Burns and Im are 11 under.

There's not a whole lot riding for Scheffler or Burns today. They're both in next week for the BMW Championship in St. Louis and are guaranteed to be in the field in Atlanta in two weeks for the Tour Championship.

But it's a huge day for Im, who started this week at #53 in the standings and has to finish at 50 or better to play at Bellerive Country Club. He currently sits at #35. A top 5 finish today would guarantee his spot in the BMW next week.

Jake Knapp, at 8 under par, is in a somewhat similar spot to Im, but he has some wiggle room today. Knapp started at #40 and is currently at #29. Anything inside the Top 15 and he should be good for the BMW.

But for guys like Im and Knapp, today presents a huge opportunity. Only the Top 30 players make it to East Lake in two weeks for the 3rd and final playoff event of the season.

So a strong finish today would go a long way in helping them get to the Tour Championship at East Lake.

But they're going to have to do something that very few players have done to Scheffler. And that is, overtake him on the final day of the tournament when he owns the 54 hole lead.

In his career, Scheffler has closed out 12 of 18 tournaments when he has led or co-led an event through 54 holes.

Will he be able to hold off the challengers today and win for the 2nd time this season? And, at the same time, a win in Memphis today would go a long way in pushing Scheffler into the lead for the Player of the Year race. He's won that particular title four straight years. A win today and he moves firmly into "favorite" status with two events remaining in the season.

Saturday August 15, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4379

guess who's back?

He's back.

Not, not Eminem.

We're talking about Scottie Scheffler.

And Lamar Jackson, although he's not going to play in tonight's pre-season opener vs. Philadelphia.

And, maybe, Gunnar Henderson, too?

Wouldn't that be something?

Scottie shot 61 on Friday, with two bogies!

And Gunnar went 4-for-4 and belted what turned out to be the game-winning homer after the O's nearly squandered a 6-2 lead in the 9th inning before hanging on to beat the Rays in the series opener, 6-5, last night.

Gunnar, 4-for-4?

Is that what you're questioning? Well, you can go to the boxscore and check it for yourself or you can just believe us.

But it happened. Henderson's big night in Tampa Bay lifted his average all the way up to .221 on the season and, at least for one night, gave us a glimpse into just how the Birds might sneak and scratch their way back into the wild card chase over the final six weeks of the regular season.

The Yankees and Red Sox are in, barring something crazy happening.

But after that, it's a wild scene, with six teams at either 60 wins or 59 wins and within 1.5 games of one another.

And one of those teams, Detroit, will probably not be around in two weeks, let alone six weeks. They sold off their two best pitchers at the deadline, so for arguments sake, we're going to leave them out.

That leaves Minnesota, Texas and Toronto each with 60 wins.

And the O's and Cleveland with 59.

Seattle has 57, in case you're wondering what happened to them.

So, the O's did what they needed to do last night in Tampa Bay to get the critical 4-game series off on the right foot.

You can't sweep all four games if you don't win the first one. And that's what they did on Friday, even with Yennier Cano throwing batting practice in the bottom of the 9th.

Now, let's go get the next one, today, and maybe at that point we're starting to cook with gas, huh?

By almost any other PGA Tour player's standards, Scottie Scheffler has had a great campaign in 2026, with one win, two playoff losses and 16 Top 25 finishes.

But "only one win" is what folks have been talking about with regard to Scheffler.

That very well might not be a topic of discussion by late Sunday evening. Scheffler's second round 61 on Friday lifted him to an 11-under-par total through 36 holes at the FedEx Cup playoffs opener in Memphis.

He leads the event at TPC Southwind by three shots over Sungjae Im and Viktor Hovland and four shots over Ludvig Aberg.

It was only a matter of time before Scheffler's entire game came together. He's been among TOUR leaders in virtually every meaningful statistical category in 2026, but he hasn't been able to manifest that into a victory other than back in January when he won the American Express Championship.

On Friday, it all came together.

Scheffler couldn't miss with the putter, although he did have a 15-footer at the final hole to shoot "60" and he couldn't will that one into the hole. Other than that, he made almost every birdie putt he faced on Friday.

And when Scottie's putter is cooperating in full, he's very difficult to beat.

The guys behind him are real, though, and worthy of consideration.

Im is a ball-striking machine who is almost always either putting great or putting poorly. There's little in between for him.

Hovland, from Norway, has been a fixture on the TOUR for the last five years or so and has fixed his golf swing almost yearly since becoming a professional. He beat Scheffler in a playoff earlier this year, don't forget.

And Aberg is the guy most people thought might start pressing Scheffler for the world #1 ranking when he joined the PGA Tour four years ago and almost immediately made the European Ryder Cup team despite never having played a major championship at that point.

Oh, and there are a couple of other very interesting names lurking a little more down the leaderboard.

Is that really Jordan Spieth at 6 under par? Like, the real Jordan Spieth? Yes, yes it is. Spieth is in contention, sorta-kinda, on the weekend for what feels like the first time in quite a while.

Tommy Fleetwood, last year's FedEx Cup playoff winner, is also at 6-under.

And one shot back of them is former American standout, Patrick Cantlay, who hasn't won since capturing the BMW in Baltimore in 2022.

Of all the things about the PGA Tour that are hard to believe, that's on everyone's Top 5 list. Patrick Cantlay doesn't have a win on TOUR since 2022.

They're all chasing the best player in the world, though. And if Scheffler's putting on Friday is any indication of what's to come on Saturday and Sunday, this tournament might be over before the players tee off tomorrow.

Something tells me that won't happen, though. I'm not saying Scheffler won't win. But someone will challenge him over the final 36 holes and the playoffs will be off to a rousing start in Memphis.

There was a time when pre-season football was a little bit meaningful. Everyone played the first game of the pre-season, at least for a half, and that gave us a glimpse into what might be during the upcoming regular season.

That doesn't happen any longer.

The Ravens host the Eagles tonight and the game, while important to a bunch of guys you've never heard of, just doesn't matter for the most part.

The teams in the NFL still host a pre-season game or two because they're money makers and also serve as good test runs for game-day operations and such.

And this year, for the Ravens at least, pre-season games also give the team's entirely new coaching staff an opportunity to get their feet wet in gameday situations.

But as an on-field-product? The game is pretty much meaningless to any of the team's projected starters.

We'll follow along, of course, and see if anyone stands out. And then, like always, we'll all yell and scream for the next two weeks about how (insert name here) was great in that 20-16 pre-season win over the Eagles and might be the story of training camp 2026.

Football's back, though. Starting tonight.

Friday August 14, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4378

one quick thought for all 32 teams

With the Orioles on the verge of a meaningless September, we might as well bite the bullet here and focus a little bit of our attention on the Flyers going yet another season without a Stanley Cup title the Ravens and the rest of the NFL.

We've seen this entry elsewhere and we like it, so why not borrow it and add our own insight and opinion. You're welcome to chime in with your thoughts below, especially if you're interested in offering up a quick snippet about the AFC North.

As for our embattled Birds, these next 10 games are pretty much going to decide if baseball beyond Labor Day will be interesting in Bawlmer.

Four games in Tampa Bay, where a 2-2 split or better is necessary.

Three games at home vs. the Yankees, where 2-1 or better is necessary.

Three games at home vs. the Rays, where 2-1 or better is necessary.

A 6-4 mark in those 10 will at least keep things percolating long enough to get us into early September.

But if it winds up being something like 4-6 or (gasp!) 3-7 in those 10 games, then we can just turn right to football season.

Anyway, let's look around the league and start getting you ready.

NFC East --

Washington - If Daniels stays healthy, they can make the post-season.

Philadelphia - Class of the division, again, but it always feels like they're a loss away from an implosion.

New York - Harbaugh will help, but not nearly enough.

Dallas - They're cursed. They're not winning anything of substance anytime soon.

NFC South --

Tampa Bay - I can't see them doing much. On the downswing.

Atlanta - Something is always "off" with them. What will it be this year?

New Orleans - In a division no one wants to win, maybe they will?

Carolina - Since someone has to win it, why not the Panthers this season?

NFC West --

Los Angeles - If Stafford and Pacua stay healthy, the sky's the limit.

Arizona - Which 4 games will they win?

Seattle - Doubtful they'll repeat but they're going to be around for a while.

San Francisco - They'll be there as well, but can they split with the Rams and Seattle?

NFC North --

Chicago - If last year wasn't a fluke, they'll be better this year...and a tough out.

Detroit - Can they put it all together and win with that guy as their head coach?

Minnesota - Might finish 4th but they'll beat a couple of teams they shouldn't.

Green Bay - If there's a surprise team in the NFC, it's these guys.

AFC East --

New England - Feels like everything went their way last season and market correction is coming their way.

New York - No way they're going to be any good, right? Can they win more games than the Giants?

Buffalo - Unless the Patriots are legit, Buffalo will get back to the top of the division again.

Miami - They'll be in the basement for a couple of years, starting with 2026.

AFC South --

Indianapolis - They can't be any good, right? Where's the offense coming from?

Houston - Is Stroud ready to take the next step or is he starting a career fade?

Tennessee - They have to be better than they've been in the last couple of years. Don't they?

Jacksonville - Always one of the more puzzling teams. Expect the same this season. Who knows?

AFC West --

Denver - They're just like New England. Was '25 a fluke or are they actually a solid team?

Las Vegas - Let's see if Mendoza from Indiana can transform them. I don't think it's happening.

Los Angeles - Is Justin Herbert a winner? Or just a kid with a great arm who can't in January?

Kansas City - Everyone has the right to an "off" season and last year was K.C.'s. They'll be back in '26.

AFC North --

Cleveland - The AFC's version of the Falcons. Something always goes wrong. And it will again in '26.

Pittsburgh - Nothing special about these guys. They're on the downswing.

Cincinnati - Can Burrow stay healthy? Is their defense decent enough to compete. We'll see. On both.

BALTIMORE - As Lamar goes, they go. Pretty simple. If he misses 6 games, they'll be hard pressed to win 8 games overall. If he plays 15 or more, they're going to win 12 or 13 and cruise to the division title. It's all about Lamar.

faith in sports

Well, if for some weird reason you didn't like Mike Macdonald of the Seahawks before this, you will once you watch the video below.

Macdonald was a recent guest on Sports Spectrum, discussing his faith, coaching career and guiding the Seahawks to a NFL title in just his second year as the head coach.

Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of #DMD and our Friday "Faith in Sports" segment here every Friday.

Thursday August 13, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4377

well, 99 wins is the new max

OK, so with yesterday's loss in Minnesota, you can scratch something off of your personal "Orioles 2026 Accomplishments" list.

Win 100 games.

The Birds are now 58-63 on the year, which means 99 wins is the best they can do.

Editor's note: I hate when Flyers fans race for their calculators to see if I did the math correctly. I did it right. 162-63 is 99.

So, I know what you're thinking.

"They're not going to win 99 games, Drew."

I know that.

They're not even going to win 90 games.

I think 86-76 gets the 3rd wild card spot.

My guess is the O's are going to win somewhere between 72 and 76 games, with 78 or 80 being possible but likely improbable.

Even though they're still very much in the wild card race from a standings standpoint, every loss now takes them close to that magic number of, say, 86 wins. Right now, the most games they can is 99. Their next loss will drop that number to 98. And on we go.

Once that number becomes 85, the playoff pursuit will officially be over.

For now, though, the thought of winning 100 regular season games is dead. But the playoffs, as bleak as that chase might seem, are still out there waiting for three teams to grab.

After that first loss in Texas, I said the O's needed to go 7-8 in their next 15 games to have a reasonable chance to at least "think" their playoff hopes are alive.

Thereafter, they went 1-1 in Texas.

And they just went 1-2 in Minnesota.

They're now 2-3 in that quest to go 7-8 in the next 15 games.

Their next ten games are: 4 at Tampa Bay, 3 at home vs. the Yankees and 3 at home vs. Tampa Bay.

So, they have to go 5-5 in these next 10 vs. Tampa Bay and New York.

That seems pretty unlikely given what we've seen from the Birds of late.

But, like Ted Lasso would encourage us to do: Believe.

I'm not a country music fan. I don't know why I'm not, because my mom and dad were both crazy country music enthusiasts. But I've just never really gravitated to country music.

I definitely don't disrespect it, though. I see the attendance figures at concerts and the record sales numbers and I can totally see the popularity of country music. I've just never really owned a country album other than maybe something by John Denver when I was 10 years old.

But one thing I do have a sense of knowledge about is old school country, stemming mostly from watching that hilarious 1970's show, Hee Haw. My mom and dad were ardent watchers of Hee Haw, so a lot of what I learned as a kid about country music came from that show.

Hee Haw was really underrated.

Now, for its time, it was also a little risque. Some of the young ladies on the show wore revealing clothing from time to time and a little bit of the humor was sexually charged in nature.

But a lot of TV back then was underrated.

Which brings us to today's entry in "Epic Underdog Week".

5 Most Underrated TV Shows Of The 1960's and 1970's.

5. Three's Company -- Didn't matter if it was Mr. Roper or Mr. Furley running the building, this show was magnificent. John Ritter at his funniest and the girls trying to help him navigate dating life in Southern California in the 1970's made for some outstanding TV. What a great 8-year run they had.

4. The Mary Tyler Moore Show -- Not only was this show supremely underrated, but it had -- in Ted Baxter -- one of the all-time best TV sitcom characters. Everything about this show was wholesome, but there were enough hijinks with "Lou" (Ed Asner), and Ted Knight's character, "Ted Baxter", to keep it edgy as well.

3. The Flintstones -- I know what you're thinking. And, no, it wasn't really considered a "cartoon". Some folks don't know The Flintstones actually ran in prime time on ABC throughout their 6-year run. And here are some interesting notes you might not know. Bamm-Bamm, the Rubble's son, was actually adopted. Betty wasn't able to conceive, you see. So one of the storylines back then was adoption. Pretty cool, right? Also, do you remember how Fred shaved his face? By grabbing bumble bees in an empty sea shell. And they would "buzz" along his face like a razor and cut his whiskers. The Flintstones was a GREAT TV show.

2. I Dream Of Jeannie -- I mean, name another man who wouldn't want a jeanie? Right? What a concept for a show! This one was really good. The show juxtaposed the conflict of having everything done with you in the blink of an eye vs. having to earn things the old fashioned way.

1. The Andy Griffith Show -- There were exactly 249 episodes of this unbelievable TV show. The best part of the show wasn't Andy Griffith or Ron Howard. It was Don Knotts, playing the character of Barney Fife, who stole the whole friggin' show. Jim Nabors as also funny and added to the hysteria, but it was the relationship between Knotts and Griffith that created the excellence.

---

orioles minor league player of week

It’s time to highlight the O’s farm system a little bit and announce our DMD Orioles’ Minor League Player of the Week. This week several prospects made this a very difficult decision, but ultimately, we have selected Frederick Keys outfielder Enddy Azocar.

Azocar, 19, had himself one heck of a debut week in the Orioles’ organization for the High-A Keys. Over five games, Azocar hit a robust .417 (10-24) with six extra-base hits, eight RBI, seven runs scored and two walks. Of those 10 hits, four went for doubles, one triple and one home run.

In totality this season, which spans both the Low-A and High-A levels, Azocar has hit .291 with 31 doubles, 19 home runs, seven triples, 71 RBI and has scored 83 runs over 91 games. In addition, he has posted a .894 OPS and has thrown in 11 stolen bases as well.

Considered a top five prospect in the Boston Red Sox system, Azocar was part of the haul received by the Orioles in the Adley Rutschman trade. Now ranked as the eight best prospect in the O’s system, Azocar was originally signed by Boston in 2024 out of Venezuela for $40,000.

The 6-foot-2 righty has played all three outfield positions over his pro career and looks like a player that can continue to be that versatile outfielder that would be comfortable no matter the position.

Many folks were not happy that the O’s traded Rutschman, but the package they received from the Red Sox was undeniably good, given the prospects will have to turn into legitimate big leaguers to validate that statement.

Be sure to check back in all season as we will continue to highlight top performers from the O’s farm system!

This Orioles Minor League update was provided by our baseball correspondent, Josh Michael.

Wednesday August 12, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4376

pga tour memphis playoff picks

The Top 70 point-getters on the PGA Tour from the regular season start the 3-week FedEx Cup playoffs tomorrow at TPC Southwind in Memphis.

From here, the low 50 move on to next week's BMW Championship and then, the 30 players remaining (points wise) after the BMW will play in the Tour Championship.

It's a cool way to end the regular season and there is always drama this week in Memphis as players jockey to stay within the Top 50 or sneak their way into the Top 50 to move on to the BMW.

I'm looking at three parlay picks this week (Top 10, Top 20, Top 30) and one winner. If you're one of those folks who likes a longshot, I have two of those as well. Since it's the end of the year and all, I might even dip into the longshot pool with a Top 5 on both just in case they sniff around the leaderboard on Sunday afternoon.

So, here we go with the three parlay picks.

Sam Burns -- He hasn't played since putting up a great fight at Royal Birkdale, but his game, as we saw at both the British and U.S. Open in the last two months, is very on-point. Just needs to keep that putter going on Sunday and he'll be fine. I love his chances this week.

Hideki Matsuyama -- He's in one of those ruts where all he does is play 63 of 72 holes great. It's one 9-hole stretch in every tournament that keeps him from winning or being there at the end. He's won in Memphis before. And he even though he might not have the heavy artillery to win the TOUR Championship, I do think he can win a playoff event.

Cameron Young -- I still feel like he has something left in the tank for '26 even if his overall play has cooled off since the spring, when he was the best player on the Tour for six weeks or so. It wouldn't shock me at all to see him win this week and maybe then again in a couple of weeks in the final event. He's the real deal.

Our two longshots are:

Alex Smalley -- This kid has really had a nice 2026, punctuated by his near-win at the PGA Championship and several other Sunday afternoon tee times where he was firmly in the hunt heading into the final day. I like his game. I don't think he's a fluke.

Jake Knapp -- I have this weird feeling about Knapp, who has been injured throughout '26 and is pretty much limpiing into the playoff stretch this week. If he's healthy and his golf swing is good, I think he has a solid, contending event left in him this season. A win might be too ambitious of an ask but I can see him in a T2 spot heading into Sunday and playing well before finishing T4.

And our outright winner prediction:

Xander Schauffele -- "X" offered some very cryptic commentary after the British Open, talking about making some necessary changes to his golf game -- mostly in the way he tries to play every round perfectly instead of being a little more whatever-happens-happens -- and he immediately came home and contended in Minnesota.

There's no way he's going all of 2026 without winning. He's just too friggin' good. Schauffele has a nice track record in Memphis, as well, so there's another thing to consider.

When a great player humbles themselves a little and says, "I need to get better", you should follow them closely. I think Schauffele figured something out this summer.

---

what can new do for you?

There's a great scene in the old movie classic, Dumb and Dumber, where one of those knuckleheads confesses to the other that his girlfriend broke up with him earlier in the day.

"What happened?" Jim Carrey's character, Lloyd asks.

"I don't know," his friend Harry, played by Jeff Daniels, says. "She gave me a bunch of crap about me not listening to her enough or something, I wasn't really listening."

Editor's note: There are a lot of great scenes in tha that movie. We could run one a week for a month here and still would have some left over for dessert.

Anyway, I bring that up today as the appetizer for Randy Morgan's exceptional piece below about Declan Doyle's new offense with the Ravens.

Doyle, of course, is part of the brand new coaching staff in Baltimore. While he's technically been an offensive coordinator before, in Chicago, he's never really been a full-time, the-whole-department-is-mine offensive coordinator, where he designs the playbook, game plans each week and calls the plays on Sunday.

So this is his first big step into NFL coaching.

How will the players react in Baltimore?

More importantly, how will Doyle connect with the two positions that matter the most, quarterback and wide receiver?

The question becomes: Will they listen?

And I don't mean listen like a 7th grader who is disrespectful in class and disrupts everything. I would never accuse Lamar, Bate, Zay and so on with that kind of behavior.

I mean, will the team's key players buy in and believe in what Doyle is selling them from a game plan perspective?

Sometimes a new voice is good. It's necessary to bring about change, particularly when a team has been around the block a time or two together.

Steve Bisciotti is banking on change being good in Baltimore. He's the one who chopped off the heads of John Harbaugh and 20-some of his staff and associated coaching department employees.

Declan Doyle is a key piece to the new coaching configuration in Charm City. Let's let Randy Morgan explain what you're likely to see from Doyle's offense in Baltimore in 2026.

---

While on a lengthy drive yesterday with our intrepid Terps basketball reporter, Dale Williams, the subject of "covers" in the music world became a topic of conversation between us.

Dale is as much of a music buff as I am, so I asked the question: "Is it possible for a cover (meaning, a song recorded by a different artist following the release of the original) to be better than the original song? Or is the original song always going to be the best version of the song?"

That thought does seem weird, right?

I mean, let's think of American Pie, for example. Is there any way humanly possible that someone could record a better version of that song than Don McLean's original version?

I don't see how. And I've seen a lot of people try to cover it, from John Mayer to the Foo Fighters to Keith Urban, and no one can come close to making the song better.

Which then becomes part of today's "Epic Underrated Week" here at #DMD. Covers are really underrated and they're a valuable part of the music world because, in some ways, that's how the music lives on from generation to generation.

I was not at all a fan of Bruce Springsteen's most recent album where he covered a bunch of old blues and soul music songs, but I'll give him credit. He pulled some of them off very nicely, most notably the old "Nightshift" tune by The Commodores. Some of them were also terrible, by the way, but that's the danger in covering songs, I suppose.

Anyway, as Dale and I ventured down the road, we started rattling off great cover tunes and came up with the Top 5 Most Underrated Covers.

Number one is in the video below. Ironically, Bruce Springsteen actually wrote and recorded the song a few years before the other band covered it far more successfully.

#5, I Shot The Sheriff, Eric Clapton -- OK, so there's absolutely zero doubt about this one being better than the original by Bob Marley. I'm a Bob Marley fan, even, and I have to take Clapton's version over Marley's. This was actually the first song I ever remember hearing by Clapton. I saw him play it live in the 1980's and it was his best song of the night.

#4, All Along The Watchtower, Jimi Hendrix and Dave Matthews Band -- With all due respect to Bob Dylan, as overrated as he was, this was a songwriter's Mona Lisa. It just took Hendrix to put it all together and make it sound like a great song. It's a bit of a generational anthem. Hendrix put it on a studio album as if it were his own and DMB has used "Watchtower" as one of their go-to encore songs for two decades now. Both the Hendrix version and the DMB version are far better than the original.

#3, Ice Cream Man, Van Halen -- Originally written and recorded by a fairly obscure Chicago bluesman, John Brim, David Lee Roth and the boys remade this tune and put it on their debut album and hardly anyone realized it was a cover at the time. This still ranks as one of my all-time favorite Van Halen songs, even though it was a cover.

#2, With a Little Help From My Friends, Joe Cocker -- OK, so this was a slam dunk. The Beatles offered up the original, so, heck, the Bay City Rollers could have covered this and it would have been an upgrade, most likely. However, it's true, yes. Joe Cocker's version was far superior than the Beatles' original tune. Then again, anything Joe Cocker did was pretty much better than everyone else. That dude could sing.

And, so, that brings us to #1, below. Originally written and performed by Bruce Springsteen. Oddly enough, the cover of the song then actually made Bruce go back in and re-brand the tune himself and use it in live performances of his own over the next 30 years. Bruce once said he "gave up on the song" because he thought people couldn't follow along with the lyrical storyline.

Now, it's a Top 25 Springsteen song of all-time, depending on the Springsteen buff you're listening to on that occasion.

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here for his thoughts on the purple birds.

What Will Declan Doyle Actually Change?

The easiest way to project Declan Doyle’s new Ravens offense is to borrow from his two most prominent mentors.

Sean Payton’s detail. Ben Johnson’s motion and deception. Add Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry and the sky is the limit. At least that’s what we hope here in Baltimore.

While this points us in the right direction, it won’t be just as simple as that. Doyle is not bringing a proven personal system to Baltimore. He has never called plays in a regular-season NFL game, as Ben Johnson remained the designer and play caller during Doyle’s one season as Chicago’s offensive coordinator.

The Ravens are betting that a 30-year-old coach who has spent his career absorbing ideas from several of the most successful offensive environments can combine them into something of his own.

Early evidence suggests that there won’t be a dramatic departure from in mentality or philosophy from the offense that had success under Todd Monken.

The Ravens will run the ball, Henry will remain central, and Lamar’s legs will still distort defensive numbers. Mark Andrews will remain the workhorse target in the middle of the field and after his recent contract extension, Zay Flowers will be the offense’s most dangerous receiver.

The difference should be in the details of how this offense presents and pieces those strengths together. Doyle’s assignment is not to replace the Ravens’ offensive identity. It is to disguise it better, teach it more precisely and give Lamar more answers before the snap, within the play and after the original structure breaks down.

That is an appealing vision, but whether a first-time NFL play caller can turn it into a coherent offense on Sundays is the much bigger question.

Physical, detailed and explosive --

Doyle has repeatedly described his offense with three words: physical, detailed and explosive. The first word should calm anyone expecting Baltimore to suddenly become a pass-first spread team. Doyle inherited Henry and Lamar, perhaps the most intimidating rushing combination in football.

He also spent 2025 coordinating an offense in Chicago that finished third in the NFL with 2,456 rushing yards. The Bears did not generate that production by lining up in one formation and running the same concept repeatedly.

The Ravens under Doyle should remain committed to the run, but the presentation of that run could change considerably. That is already apparent in what Doyle has installed this offseason, with the offense working from under center, pistol and shotgun, using built-in shifts and motion.

Tight ends and receivers are moving around the formation rather than being tied to one spot, most notably Rashod Bateman, while players are being taught concepts that allow them to understand multiple assignments. Even cadence is being used as another way to make the defense process information before the snap.

The objective is to make defenders process more information before they ever have a chance to tackle Henry.

That does not mean motion for motion’s sake. Chicago used motion on 60.6 percent of its plays last season, according to Sharp Football Analysis, but the more revealing part is what the movement was designed to accomplish.

A shift can change the defensive front. Motion can force a secondary to communicate. Moving a tight end can alter the run fit. Sending Flowers across the formation can give him a cleaner release or expose whether the defense is playing man coverage. Doyle has described the goal as slowing down the “11 brains” across from the offense.

For a Ravens team already capable of creating hesitation with the Jackson/Henry mesh point, another half-second of uncertainty can matter.

The Ben Johnson influence should be obvious --

Doyle’s one season with Johnson in Chicago provides the best clue to how the Ravens could look. The Bears used 11 personnel on only 51.6 percent of their tracked snaps, according to SumerSports. They played 32.6 percent from 12 personnel and another 8.5 percent with three tight ends on the field.

More importantly, those heavier formations were not automatic declarations that the Bears were about to run. Chicago threw the ball on roughly 48 percent of its snaps from 12 personnel.

That is where the concept becomes particularly interesting in Baltimore. Put two tight ends on the field with Henry and force the defense to make a choice. Stay light in nickel and Baltimore can run at the smaller box. Bring another linebacker or bigger defensive front onto the field and Doyle can detach Andrews, move Flowers, use play action or make a slower defender deal with Lamar in space.

The formation might say power football. The play does not have to.

Doyle’s background coaching tight ends in Denver fits naturally with that approach. He has spent significant time teaching a position that operates at the intersection of the run game, protection and passing concepts. He understands the value of a tight end who can line up attached to the formation on one snap, move into the slot on the next and cross the formation as a blocker after that.

The departure of Patrick Ricard adds another wrinkle.

Baltimore no longer has a traditional fullback defining its personnel structure. However, they also lost Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar in the offseason as well. Tight ends such as Durham Smythe can absorb some of those insert- blocking and split-flow responsibilities while preserving more flexibility in the passing game.

Though it remains to be seen how the tight end personnel will shake out and that could limit their ability to play heavier.

How much 12 or 13 personnel Doyle actually uses may ultimately depend on which tight ends earn his trust. However, the larger principle is already visible. Personnel should be a method of creating a defensive problem, not merely a label attached to a formation.

More under center could change the picture for Lamar --

One of Doyle’s most obvious changes has been Lamar’s increased work from under center, which creates particularly interesting possibilities with Henry.

A hard downhill fake can pull linebackers toward the line of scrimmage and open space behind them. Jackson can sell the handoff, turn back toward the defense and find crossing routes developing into the vacated space. Baltimore can boot him outside, change the launch point or build screens and throwbacks from the same initial action.

A defense accustomed to reading Lamar from the shotgun now has to process a different picture. But this does invite another looming question. Under-center play action often asks the protection to hold up longer, and Baltimore enters the season with significant uncertainty along the interior offensive line. It does little good to create a beautifully layered route combination if Lamar turns around after the fake and finds a defensive tackle in his lap.

That could become one of the first constraints on Doyle’s grander plans. The Ravens can install an enormous menu in August. The offensive line may determine how much of it survives into October.

The biggest change may be how Lamar is coached --

Perhaps the most interesting part of Doyle’s approach has less to do with formations than with Lamar himself.

Doyle has described defending him as having to stop two plays.

There is the called play.

Then there is the “second act” created by Lamar’s exceptional elusiveness.

The Ravens have always benefited from the second one. Lamar escapes pressure, extends the snap and turns something that appears dead into a completion 20 yards downfield. Too often, though, that improvisation has been forced to rescue a failed structure rather than functioning within the design.

Doyle wants to preserve the improvisation while making both stages more organized. First comes greater emphasis on Jackson’s footwork, eyes, timing, huddle operation and understanding of why the play has been called. Doyle famously got after Jackson during minicamp after the quarterback changed a boot-action play, and Jackson’s reaction was revealing. He liked the coaching.

There is an important distinction here. Doyle is not treating a two-time MVP as a finished product whose gifts are too valuable to touch. He is trying to improve the mundane parts of quarterback play so Lamar has fewer snaps that require a spectacular solution. Then, if the play does break down, everyone else needs rules.

Receivers need to understand who goes vertical and who works back toward Jackson. Backs need to know how to become outlets. The spacing must change depending on which direction Lamar escapes. Linemen have to remain conscious of drifting illegally downfield.

The improvisation should remain unpredictable to the defense without being unpredictable to his teammates. The Ravens do not need to coach creativity out of their QB, they just need to stop requiring quite so much of it.

Zay Flowers should be harder to find before the snap --

The conceptual teaching extends to Baltimore’s receivers. Under Doyle, Flowers, Rashod Bateman and the rest of the group will be moved around formations rather than learning one narrowly defined spot.

Flowers has described the offense as learning a new language, while praising the routes and designs Doyle is installing to help receivers create separation and he may be the most likely to benefit.

There is no reason for Baltimore to consistently leave its best receiver in a static alignment and ask the defense to comfortably identify how it wants to cover him.

Doyle can use motion to give Flowers a running start. Condensed formations can protect him from press coverage. Stacks and bunches can create natural traffic. He can move into the slot, cross the formation or serve as a decoy that pulls defenders away from the eventual target. That is another Ben Johnson trait worth importing. The offense should make the defense spend time locating its best players before it begins worrying about stopping them.

Andrews can serve a similar purpose. If Baltimore can make his alignment credible as both a blocker and receiver, defenses cannot simply use his location as a clue. He can stay attached to the formation, flex into the slot, release late behind linebackers or become Jackson’s immediate answer when pressure arrives.

Again, multiplicity only matters if every possibility is believable.

The Ravens should hunt explosives without living on hero ball --

Doyle has also been clear that he wants the offense to create explosive plays deliberately. Chicago pushed the ball downfield last season. Caleb Williams completed 28 passes traveling at least 20 yards in the air, fifth-most in the NFL. The Bears paired that aggression with a top- three rushing attack that forced defenses to respect what was happening near the line of scrimmage.

The Ravens obviously have the personnel to replicate that approach, but Doyle has emphasized knowing when to “take the profit”, which may be just as important.

A functioning version of this offense should give Lamar layered solutions. Take the shot when the defense provides it. Hit the crosser or seam when the deep safety stays high.

Check the ball down when the coverage has won. Let Henry take the efficient run when the box is favorable.

The danger is building an offense that knows too much --

Everything Doyle is adding sounds good individually, but he risks overcomplicating an offense that already had many strengths. The first-time coordinator will have to find the right balance of introducing complexity but phasing it in at a pace that the players can absorb.

Doyle has intentionally overloaded the offense during installation. His belief that “growth happens on the other side of stress” makes sense during the summer. The Ravens can find the breaking point now, determine what their players handle well and reduce the package before the games count.

Chicago itself required time to become comfortable with Johnson’s system last season. Baltimore has an experienced quarterback rather than a young Caleb Williams, but Lamar has said almost nothing from Todd Monken’s offense carried into Doyle’s system.

This is not a collection of new wrinkles attached to the old playbook. It is a new language. Late huddle breaks, illegal formations, false starts and wasted timeouts will tell us quickly if the install is overly ambitious. So will Lamar spending so much mental energy operating the offense that he is slower processing the defense.

Multiplicity is only an advantage when the offense understands it better than the opponent. Otherwise it is just complexity for complexity’s sake.

And then Doyle has to call the plays --

That remains the part that can’t be easily projected. And Ravens fans will have some hesitation with a nascent play-caller after two years of a defense under-performing under a similar raw coordinator.

Doyle has been around excellent offensive coaches. He spent years with Payton in New Orleans and Denver. He was an important organizer underneath Johnson during Chicago’s dramatic offensive improvement in 2025.

The Bears went from 32nd in total offense in 2024 to sixth last season, increased their scoring by 131 points and improved from 4.5 yards per play to 5.5.

Doyle deserves credit for helping Johnson install and manage that offense, but he does not get credit for being Ben Johnson.

Johnson designed the system and called the plays. Doyle now has to prove he can handle the part that cannot be demonstrated on a whiteboard.

Can he sequence calls so one play creates an opportunity for another later? Can he recognize how a defense has changed its plan between series? Will he stick with a concept that is working rather than chasing the next clever idea?

Can he manage third downs, the red zone, two-minute situations and the inevitable afternoon when the opening script gets punched in the mouth? Most importantly, can he keep the offense grounded when a game becomes chaotic?

Those questions matter more than whether the Ravens unveil a fun reverse in Week 2. Creativity is not in doubt. Game management is.

The Ravens do not need reinvention --

That is ultimately why Doyle is such an interesting hire.

Baltimore did not need a new offensive coordinator to discover that Lamar is difficult to defend or that giving Henry the football is generally a useful idea.

Todd Monken set a high standard. The Ravens are not trying to escape an offensive failure. They are trying to push an already talented unit toward another level while asking a first-time play caller to manage a championship-caliber roster.

Doyle’s best version of the Ravens offense should look more different before the snap than it does in its fundamental priorities.

The Ravens will still be physical. They will still run. Lamar will still turn broken plays into absurd ones. Henry will still force defenses to commit bodies they would rather leave in coverage. The difference should be that defenses have to solve more problems before reaching the problem they already know is coming.

Then, once the ball is snapped, Lamar can still turn the answer sheet upside down. That is the promise of Doyle’s offense.

If he can implement it without burying the offense beneath its own playbook, Baltimore will not have changed its offensive identity.

It will simply be much harder to see coming.

Tuesday August 11, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4375

possibly the wildest sports cheating story...ever

I'm not sure what is better. Dean Kremer's start for the Twins last night or our baseball guru Randy's exceptional deep dive into starting pitchers the Orioles missed out on in the 2025-2026 off-season.

Both are outstanding.

But we're going to start today with an incredible, can't-believe-it's-true golf cheating scandal.

First, though, let's list a few of the all-time best sports cheating stories so we can present a recent one for your consideration on said list.

The Astros and the trash can saga has to be on everyone's Top 5 list. I mean, I'm not saying they 100% won the World Series because of it, but trash-can-gate was definitely an impacting factor in (or on) their 2017 season.

When you want to win that much, where you'll bang on trash cans and wire guys with electric prompters, there's almost an argument you deserve to beat everyone.

Some folks think Tom Brady and Deflategate was a big deal, and Brady was suspended for the first four games of the 2016 season, remember. I personally thought it was a massive witch hunt on what was then the game's premier team and organization. Every quarterback in the NFL either overinflated or deflated the footballs to their liking.

The Ravens' Joe Flacco admitted on my very radio show his fondness for adding a few pounds to the balls he preferred to throw in the games.

I honestly thought Deflategate was a nothing-burger. But that's not how everyone else felt. So I'll agree Deflategate belongs on the list, even if it was nothing more than a misdemeanor.

Speaking of the Patriots and cheating, Bill Belichick was once famously nabbed for stealing signals and information from the New York Jets during a 2007. He was fined and the Patriots lost their 2008 first round draft pick. Later, Belichick said he merely misinterpreted the wording on the rule, but reiterated "I'd never do anything to knowingly violate the rules of the league, which are in place for everyone to follow to create the most level playing field possible."

Yeah, and pigs are gonna fly next.

There are tons of point shaving scandals out there. I've seen more than one NFL game where a guy does something puzzling late in the game that makes you think, "Hmmmmmmmm...."

When I was in the soccer business, there was a fixed game scandal involving the Canadian men's national team in a game in Singapore. Five Canadian players were eventually removed from consideration for the 1988 World Cup team as part of their penalty, although the case never made it to court due to a conflict in procedure between the governments of Canada and Singapore.

It wasn't a huge deal back then because it was soccer and it was Canadian soccer at that, but if that same thing happened today and, say, Liverpool fixed a match against Chelsea, it would be a two-week-long story on the international sports scene.

There's a saying in every garage that houses a NASCAR vehicle. "If you ain't cheatin', you ain't tryin'." Every NASCAR crew tries to brush up as close as they can to the rules about the car, the engine, the tires and so on. Every week, someone's cheating on the NASCAR circuit. The only question is: Will this be your week to get caught?

Heck, we even had cheating, sorta kinda, in the old days of the MISL.

"Take these shoes up to (XXXX) on Park Avenue," a famous Blast Hall of Fame player once said to me when I was the lowly Public Relations Assistant and was often sent out on odd jobs and task for players and staff members. Inside a small blue bag were four brand new pairs of adidas "Samba" indoor soccer shoes.

I took the shoes up to the store a few blocks from the (then) Baltimore Arena. "You can pick these up on Friday after 12 noon," the man said as he wrote a name tag on a card and affixed it to string on the blue bag.

On Friday I went back and picked up the shoes. Curiosity got the best of me and I peeked in the bag. Inside were the same eight shoes that I had dropped off. Four right shoes and four left shoes. And they were the exact shoes I dropped off, except stitched into the shoes was a Nike "swoosh".

The player had a shoe deal with Nike but preferred the comfort and feel of the adidas "Samba" brand. So he had the swoosh stitched in and off he went. It's probably not the cheating story you thought you might hear, but it was definitely breaking/bending the rules as far as his personal contract with Nike went. He was wearing a Nike shoe by logo only.

There have been a few golf cheating scandals over the last 30 years, but only one of them was ever really proven and that was Vijay Singh changing his scorecard to go from missing the cut to making the cut back in the 1980's in a tournament in Indonesia.

It's one thing to bump a ball in the rough and give yourself a better lie. I mean, that's cheating, no two ways about it. But nudging your ball in the rough and taking your scorecard and erasing a "4" and writing down a "3" and then making the cut because of that decision is something totally different.

If we're playing in a match, you can move your ball in the rough on me if you're that desperate and that heinous, but you still have to hit the golf shot. And I've always figured the golf gods would patrol that sort of thing anyway and secretly go about punshing you for your cheating ways. So, have it, if you want. But you changing your card so you make the cut and I, potentially, don't? No, no, no. We're not having that.

The stuff Patrick Reed reportedly did in college (similar to what Singh did) followed him out to the PGA Tour, where everyone quickly picked up on the idea that he needed to be watched...carefully. There was that sand-trap-fiasco at Tiger's tournament in the Bahamas, where the camera caught him brushing sand out of the way on his backswing in a greenside bunker.

Personally, I thought people overreacted to that one.

But then he used the embedded ball rule to give himself a sweetheart of a preferred lie in the rough to the left of the 10th green at Torrey Pines and that was that. Reed was definitely -- at least in my mind -- a cheater. No two ways about it. He manipulated the terminology used by the marshal at the 10th hole to ask for relief, then removed his ball, called a rules official over, and asked him to "feel around and see if you don't feel a hole where the ball was..." Anyway, bogus called and said, "Man, that was terrible."

I thought that was Reed's "kick 'em off the TOUR, Doug" moment, where the 2018 Masters champ gets one of those weird "back strains" while working out and will just so happen to miss the next 3 months of the season. If you know what I mean.

If folks overreacted to Reed's issues in the Bahamas, that was countered by the underreaction his cheating story at Torrey generated. He seriously should have been suspended for that.

That brings us to the newest cheating story in sports. This one is so amazing and so brazen and so unthinkably stupid that it is drawing national attention.

At one point yesterday afternoon, this story was #3 on "Top Headlines column on the right side at ESPN.com.

The names of the course and the people involved aren't really relevant. If you want to know exact details, you can find the story and the person involved in a variety of places on the internet.

I'll just set the scene with this: There was a member-member tournament at a club in St. Louis recently, where there was a large cash payout for anyone that made a hole-in-one. The set-up of the pairings and tees was such that the foursome in question played the par 3, 4th hole before anyone else in the field.

One of the players in that foursome reviewed the pairings and tee assignments the day before and was aware of this quirk in the way the tee times were distributed. So early the next morning, he drove his car to an area adjacent to the fourth green, made a pitch mark in the green with one of his clubs, and then placed his golf ball in the hole there.

When his foursome got to the third hole that morning, the guy told his three playing partners, "I have to make a phone call after this hole to check in on my sick grandmother."

As they finished putting out on the third hole, the guy said to them, "I'm going to run up and hit my tee shot real quick and then make this call and I'll see you on the green."

He then went up to the tee, hit a shot and briskly walked off, phone in hand, saying to the three others, "I hit it a little thin, but it's straight. I think it left a mark in the green if one of you can fix that for me. I'll be right down after I'm done with this call."

You know what happened next.

The guy took a little longer than usual on the call, the other guys in the group got to the green first, saw a pitch mark in the green, couldn't find the dude's ball and then, voila!, someone looked in the hole and there it was.

"Wow, a hole in one!" they all screamed.

"And you just won $5,000!" one of them reminded him.

Word started to spread about the hole in one throughout the course. A tidbit followed along that no one but the guy in question actually saw the shot "live" and in person. Some people were skeptical about the authencity of the hole in one given the large financial gain someone could make by hitting their tee shot into the hole.

When the superintendent caught wind of the hole in one, you know what he said?

"Remember a few years ago when we were having trouble with kids riding their bikes on the greens at night and tearing them up? I'm glad I installed some cameras on a bunch of the holes near the main street that borders our course."

One of those holes was.........#4.

So, the superintendent goes to the footage of hole #4 from the night before and finds nothing.

But then, shortly before 8 am that morning, there's our guy in question, pulling up to the area behind the 4th green, getting out of his car with a club in his hand, digging into the turf with it to create the look of a pitch mark and then he strolls up to the hole and gently places his ball into the cup.

The tournament begins at 9 am and by 10 am, there's news of a hole-in-one on #4!!

Except it all unraveled once the superintendent produced the video footage of the whole thing playing out in high definition.

Yes, the guy admitted to it. Yes, they kicked him out of the club. Yes, he's super-duper embarrassed by it, as he should be.

And, yes, the story has morphed into a bigger-than-life episode being covered by the national media.

Now that....right there....is one heckuva cheating story from the world of sports.

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In honor of Dean Kremer's stunning 7 innings of work last night for against the Orioles, we thought today's "Epic Underrated List" should be a tip of the cap to the most underrated Jewish athletes of the last two-plus decades. Yes, Kremer is Jewish, hence the connection. No, he didn't make the list.

By the way, Sandy Koufax is considered by sports historians to be the greatest Jewish athlete ever.

Speaking of Kremer, specifically, the easiest 3-way parlay bet in all of MLB last night was Kremer facing his old team and recording at least 17.5 outs, allowing less than 6.5 hits and striking out more than 5.5 hitters. I mean, it was either that or the Orioles torch him for 7 runs in 3.2 innings. And the Orioles weren't scoring 17 runs in two days. We all know that.

The Most Underrated Jewish Athletes Since 2000 --

5, Dara Torres (swimmer) -- Dara Torres is the most decorated Jewish Olympian ever. She competed in five Olympic games over a 24 year period. She skipped only the 1996 games in Atlanta and the 2004 games in Athens. During her five Olympics, Torres won each of the three medals four times for a total of twelve.

4, Shawn Green (baseball) -- Green had four seasons with 35 or more home runs, four seasons of more than 100 rbi’s and hit above .280 in ten of his 15 major league seasons. He appeared in two all-star games and hit .292 with three home runs and seven rbi’s in two post season appearances with the Dodgers and Mets. Green finished his 14-year career ('93 to '07) with 328 home runs, 1,070 RBI and a .283 career batting average.

3, Julian Edelman (football) -- A Patriots Hall of Fame wide receiver, Edelman was known for clutch playoff performances, including a Super Bowl MVP honor. Because of Tom Brady's presence in New England, Edelman was often just regarded as "part of the cast".

2, Aly Raisman (gymnastics) -- Aly is one of the most decorated U.S. gymnasts in history, winning multiple Olympic gold medals. She proudly blends her Jewish identity with her athletic life. At the 2012 London Olympics, she won the women's floor-routine gold performing to the traditional Jewish song "Hava Nagila," a moment that still shows up in tributes and highlights her cultural pride. She often wore a Star of David on her leotard during competitions, turning the podium into a statement of Jewish visibility.

1, Alex Bregman (baseball) -- One of the more underrated current players, Jewish or not, Bregman is currently trying to help lead the Cubs to a playoff spot in in the National League Central. He's a lifetime .270 hitter and has never once posted a WAR of below 0.00 in his 11-year career.

	"Randy On The O's"
Randy Morgan takes #DMD readers through the recent week in Orioles baseball as the Birds try to return to the A.L. playoffs after missing the post-season in 2025.

Orioles Question of the Week

How would one of the top free agent starters have altered the Orioles season?

All stats through 8/8.

There is something uniquely frustrating about a bad baseball team that turns out to be just good enough for its biggest offseason mistake to matter.

If the Orioles were 45-71, we could look back and say no amount of help in the offseason was fixing the team. No pitcher would make up twenty wins by himself.

Instead, the Orioles entered August 8 at 56-60, just two games out of an American League Wild Card spot despite already reaching the trade deadline as sellers.

This is a mediocre baseball team, plain and simple.

But being mediocre instead of terrible actually makes the offseason failure harder to swallow, because the Orioles did not need ten extra wins to alter the trajectory of their season. They may have needed three to five.

That got me wondering what the top free-agent pitchers the Orioles could have added last winter have done this season, and how that could have changed their outlook.

The O’s spent last winter pursuing a group of established starters that included Cease, Ranger Suárez, Michael King and Framber Valdez before ultimately failing and turning to Chris Bassitt as a fallback.

All four misses do not look equally damaging in hindsight.

King and Valdez have not pitched like frontline starters, but even their more ordinary performances would have represented meaningful upgrades over what the O’s actually received from the back of its rotation. Cease and Suarez certainly could have changed the season.

And when a few marginal wins might have been the difference between selling at the deadline and entering August in playoff position, those misses become much more than another offseason complaint.

What Would a Better Starter Actually Have Changed? --

Let’s try to break down exactly how much each of these targets may have added to the 2026 Orioles win total thus far.

For this exercise, I used the aggregate production the Orioles actually received from every start not made by its top four starters: Shane Baz, Kyle Bradish, Trevor Rogers and Brandon Young. Those four accounted for 85 of the Orioles’ first 116 starts.

The other 31 came from Bassitt, Dean Kremer, Trey Gibson, Cade Povich, Keegan Akin (as an opener) and Zach Eflin. That revolving-door fifth-starter group combined for 138⅓ innings with an innings-weighted 5.72 FIP and approximately a 5.99 ERA.

That group represents the production any other free-agent acquisition would have replaced, while keeping Baz, Bradish, Rogers and Young constant.

I then compared that fifth-starter/depth slot with each free agent using FIP, which attempts to isolate outcomes a pitcher controls more directly, and converted the resulting runs saved into wins using Baltimore’s actual run environment.

The results:

To the right of each name are three numbers. Those numbers represent the estimated runs saved by that particular pitcher, the estimated team wins added by that particular pitcher and the Orioles estimated record as of 8/8 by adding that pitcher.

Dylan Cease 49.4, +5.0, 61-55

Ranger Suárez 34.5, +3.4, 59-57

Michael King 22.2, +2.2, 58-58

Framber Valdez 23.8, +2.3, 58-58

This is obviously not a replay of the season. We cannot know whether Cease would have won the exact same games in Baltimore, whether Craig Albernaz would have handled the bullpen differently behind him or whether a particular 3-2 loss becomes a 2-1 win.

But that is not really the point.

The point is the size of the difference.

Cease has been worth roughly five wins compared with the kind of rotation production Baltimore actually received from its weakest spot. For a team buried in the standings, five wins are trivial.

For a team two games out of a playoff spot, five wins can change everything.

Cease Is the Painful One --

Of the four, Cease is the counterfactual that should bother Orioles fans the most. Through 126⅓ innings, Cease has a 2.28 ERA. More importantly, essentially every underlying number says he has pitched like an ace rather than merely gotten ace-like results.

His 2.20 FIP is actually better than his ERA. His xFIP is 2.63 and his expected ERA is 2.69. He has struck out 36.4% of the hitters he has faced, producing an absurd 26.1% strikeout-minus- walk rate.

He is also suppressing damaging contact, with an 86.1 mph average exit velocity and just a 4.5% barrel rate.

There is always some noise in a pitcher’s ERA. There isn’t much noise in that collection of numbers. Cease is missing bats, limiting home runs and preventing hitters from squaring him up. This is what a legitimate ace season looks like.

Against the Orioles’ actual fifth-starter baseline, the FIP model estimates Cease would have prevented about 49 runs. That translates to approximately five additional wins.

Give the Orioles five additional wins and they aren’t 56-60.

They’re roughly 61-55.

That does not suddenly make them the 1998 Yankees. It does, however, almost certainly change the way we have discussed this team for the past month.

And possibly the way the front office handled the trade deadline.

The Marginal Value of Those Wins Matters --

This is where simply saying “five wins” undersells the issue.

Wins do not have equal practical value in every situation.

If a 65-win team becomes a 70-win team, congratulations, it is still going home in September. If a 100-win team becomes a 105-win team, it might improve its postseason seeding, but both versions are comfortably playing in October.

Moving a team from the mid-50s in wins to the low-60s in early August is different.

Baltimore reached this point close enough to the Wild Card race that three to five additional wins could have taken them from the outside of the playoff field to the inside. Those are exceptionally valuable marginal wins.

The timing matters too.

The Orioles did not begin selling because they were mathematically eliminated. They sold because the front office looked at a mediocre team, its remaining schedule and the likelihood of reaching October and decided the expected value of converting present major leaguers into future assets was greater than continuing to chase the 2026 postseason.

Change the record before the deadline, and perhaps that calculation changes.

We obviously cannot prove that signing Cease means the Orioles keep every player they eventually traded. Maybe Mike Elias still decides that some of those deals make sense. Maybe injuries or other weaknesses lead them to the same conclusion anyway.

But a team sitting six games above .500 and occupying, or very close to occupying, a playoff position has a very different deadline than one sitting below .500.

Instead of asking what they could get for veterans, perhaps the conversation becomes what they can add around Cease, Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers.

Instead of conceding another season from this competitive window, perhaps they are trying to extend it into October.

One offseason signing potentially changes not only five games, but the organizational decisions that follow from those five games.

Suárez Would Have Mattered Too --

Ranger Suárez is not quite as dramatic, mostly because he has thrown fewer innings, but his performance has also validated the idea that Baltimore should have been more aggressive at the top of the market.

Suárez has a 3.32 ERA in 103 innings, with a 2.71 FIP, 3.27 xFIP, 3.55 expected ERA and 18.4% strikeout-minus-walk rate.

In his case, the advanced numbers make the season look better, not worse. His FIP is more than half a run below his ERA, and his underlying performance suggests a legitimately excellent starter.

Using his actual workload, the model gives Baltimore about 3.4 additional wins, putting the Orioles around 59-57.

That may not sound dramatically different from 56-60, but again, look at the standings. Three games above .500 might have been enough to keep the Orioles on the other side of the deadline decision.

Not to mention the Orioles would have these pitchers for years into the future as well.

Not Every Expensive Pitcher Would Have Saved Them --

The counterargument deserves a hearing because hindsight can make free-agent criticism far too easy.

Signing an expensive pitcher does not automatically mean getting an ace.

Michael King has a 3.45 ERA and has certainly been valuable, but his underlying numbers are far less impressive. His FIP is 4.19, his strikeout rate has fallen to 21.2% and his strikeout- minus-walk rate sits at only 11.2 percent. His low .254 BABIP helps explain why his run prevention has been substantially better than his component statistics.

Even so, the revised model gives Baltimore about 2.2 additional wins from King, putting them around 58-58. That isn’t a season-altering output by itself, but it also is not insignificant for a team sitting two games out of a playoff spot.

Framber Valdez has been similarly ordinary by his standards. His 4.17 ERA comes with a 4.04 FIP, 4.16 xFIP and 4.30 expected ERA, with a strikeout-minus-walk rate of just 10.4 percent. Again, the model still estimates roughly two additional wins, about 2.3 to be exact, because the O’s actual fifth-starter production was so poor.

The lesson is that the Orioles had identified the correct need, had legitimate frontline options available and still came away without one. There is risk in every long-term pitching contract. Pitchers get hurt. Performance declines. A deal that looks smart in February can look ridiculous by August.

King and Valdez demonstrate why the front office might have been cautious. Neither has pitched like the ace the Birds needed. But the revised model also shows just how low the Orioles set the bar at the back of their own rotation. Even those disappointing outcomes would have represented meaningful upgrades.

Cease and Suárez demonstrate the much larger cost of being wrong.

Spending More isn’t the same as Spending Enough --

The new owner likes to point out that the team has spent more and increased payroll since he took over.

That is objectively true.

Spotrac currently estimates Baltimore’s adjusted 2026 payroll around $162 million, compared with roughly $111 million in 2024. The organization also signed Pete Alonso to a five-year, $155 million contract and signed Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish to sizable extensions.

This is not the Angelos-era payroll anymore, but the increase only looks significant because it's coming from such a low baseline. Going from one of baseball’s cheapest payrolls to approximately the middle of the league is progress. It is not evidence that the job is finished or that ownership is really serious about being truly competitive rather than just hopeful.

For a franchise that spent years deliberately losing and accumulating premium young talent, the promise was always that the cheap years would eventually create room to spend when contention arrived.

Well, we thought contention had arrived. You know “lift off” and all.

Rubenstein said in February 2025 that there was no financial limit imposed on Elias and described money as not being “the big issue,” saying the ownership group was financially in very good shape.

If that remains true, then the inability to finish the job on a frontline starter becomes increasingly difficult to excuse. Whether Cease did not sign because the Orioles would not meet the price, because Elias did not value the contract highly enough or because the player simply preferred somewhere else is difficult to know from outside the organization.

The result is easier to evaluate.

The Orioles needed top-end starting pitching for a second straight offseason and for a second straight offseason they did not acquire enough of it. One of the pitchers they pursued is now having an ace season, another has been an excellent starter, and even the two less impressive outcomes would have been substantial improvements to the Oriole rotation.

Which Brings Us Back to Elias --

The more difficult part to reconcile is Rubenstein’s continuing faith in Mike Elias. On July 24, with the Orioles again enduring a disappointing season, Rubenstein offered unequivocal support for his president of baseball operations.

Asked whether Elias would continue leading the organization, Rubenstein said, “Absolutely. Of course,” praised his reputation around baseball and added that ownership “couldn’t be more pleased.”

That is increasingly difficult to square with the stated expectations for the franchise.

If money is not the obstacle, then baseball operations has to explain why the Orioles repeatedly reached seasons with an obvious need for frontline pitching without solving it.

If Elias is doing a terrific job, then ownership has to explain why a team that emerged from one of the deepest rebuilds in baseball history has now likely burned through two consecutive seasons of its competitive window without a playoff run.

Both things cannot simply be waved away.

To be fair, Elias cannot control injuries and he cannot force a free agent to sign in Baltimore. And it would be ridiculous to argue that Dylan Cease alone explains every failure of the 2026 Orioles.

The lineup has underperformed in important stretches. Players who were supposed to become foundational pieces have failed to develop as expected. The bullpen has had problems. Injuries have again tested the organization’s depth.

But much of those issues are specifically created by Elias’s roster construction and organizational philosophy. Perhaps if they had spent more draft capital on pitching instead of underperforming hitting prospects, they would have developed a true homegrown ace by now.

Perhaps if Elias had as good a scouting eye as we once thought, they could have used the money spent on Pete Alonso to fill the hole at the top of the rotation.

We can only hope that the ownership group finally learns the lessons this season and makes the necessary changes or shows the necessary ambition next year to prevent this team from completely squandering their once-promising competitive window.

O's SCOREBOARD
Tuesday, September 8
Orioles 5	Guardians 9
WP: T. Herrin (3-4) LP: B. Young (9-4) HR: Alonso (34), Bazzana (11) RECORD / PLACE: 70-76, 5th

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