Tuesday November 10, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4461

it's a big day

Look, I know Everyday is a big day if God graced us with another 24 hours on this big ball of dirt and water, but today is a particularly special one.

Maybe you already knew that.

Perhaps your favorite Aunt is celebrating birthday #41. Or maybe Granny is celebrating her 95th birthday today. If so, tell 'em #DMD wished them a happy one.

Around here, at least, today is big because it's November 10, 2026 and that means the NFL trade deadline has reached its final day. Come tomorrow, there's no more trading of players. What You Are tomorrow is pretty much what you're going to be for the rest of the season. Trade smartly.

There's So Much To Say about this deadline today, as far as the Ravens go.

Trade 'em? Or keep 'em?

Stay or Leave, in other words.

Is Marlon Humphrey still a Raven on Monday night when the Chargers come to town or do the Ravens Say Goodbye to their former first round pick?

In A Perfect World, if you asked me, he'd be elsewhere next Monday. I've seen enough. Humphrey likes to talk about how good he is, then he seems to play poorly in the very next game, takes to Twitter and says, "Sorry that I Let You Down" and humbly asks for Mercy on his podcast a couple of days later.

There's no Rhyme or Reason for it. He was once a really good player. But this is probably Marlo's Last Stop.

What about Derrick Henry? Of all the guys the Ravens could move, from a value standpoint, he has the most stock. He can still blow through an open hole and Break Free for 40 or 50 yards or he can pound the rock on 3rd and 2 and Crush defenses for a first down.

Will the Ravens trade him? It Could Happen. But I'm guessing they don't move him today. That said -- and I know this probably makes you Squirm in your chair a little bit -- I think the Ravens should put some serious thought into moving Henry before today's deadline expires.

I know what you're thinking: "Drew, just because the Ravens Can't Stop the run doesn't mean they should give up on running the ball themselves."

In theory, you're So Right. You are. But is this team really going anywhere this year? Like, really?

But the question isn't what You and Me think.

What does Eric DeCosta think? And Jesse Minter? They're probably reading this right now saying, "Do You Remember when we were 3-1 and and people in town were Singing From The Windows about how great we were? That was just two months ago!! Two months!"

And those people had a right to be energized about the team. They did get off to that 3-1 start, yes they did. If Only that kind of play would have continued, huh?

I think Derrick Henry is a terrific player. He's a sure fire Hall of Fame running back. We've been So Damn Lucky to have him for the last three years.

But You Never Know his value until you put his name on the wire and shop him around a bit. You might get 33 calls on him from a bunch of different teams and then #34 is the one with the best offer. You'd be a Fool To Think no one in the NFL would take him today. And they might even give you Too Much for him, as well.

Mark Andrews? There's another name with High expectations this season who hasn't really panned out the way we thought he might.

But, unlike Henry, I'm not sure anyone's taking Andrews.

Listen, I don't think the veteran tight end is as cooked as everyone says and thinks he is. But these dropped passes and missed opportunities -- how many has it been this season alone, Seven? -- are probably going to make him tough to deal today.

And his contract is a Time Bomb, too. There's an old saying, "Pay For What You Get", but in Andrews' case, I think you're paying for something you actually don't want to get: a guy who drops the ball like a Drunken Soldier drops his gun.

There's your top 3 guys that could get you something of value today.

The obvious issue lies with the possibility that the Ravens could still piece together a 9 or 10 win season and make the playoffs. If you really think that's possible, you're not trading anyone. If you think your season is kaput, you wheel and deal.

It would appear the Ravens are staying put and pushing for a late season surge into the playoffs.

What's your opinion?

What Would You Say if the Ravens traded Derrick Henry?

Or Marlon Humphrey?

I've asked this Again and Again over the last week or two. If you don't trade them now, when will their value be any higher?

I guess we'll find out later today if DeCosta stays true to his team or if he pounds his chest and says "I Did It" while announcing a flurry of trades.

An interesting tidbit emerged from yesterday's press conference at Owings Mills. Jesse Minter refused to say whether Lamar Jackson has undergone surgery on his thumb.

Straight from the John Harbaugh book on deflecting injury news.

Except when Harbaugh did it, everyone freaked out and called out the head coach for it.

No one is saying anything about Minter dodging the question.

You know what side I'm on here, so I assume you don't expect me to beat up Minter for not commenting on Lamar's status.

It's no one's business when Lamar's coming back, if he had surgery, didn't have surgery, etc.

But the fans in town shredded Harbaugh for not being up front with them.

Minter? He's not getting any flack.

Not yet, anyway.

As we've noted here, there's a window of two seasons, probably, where Minter can do almost no wrong. I mean, even if the team collapses down the stretch this year, Minter's going to get a pass. And if they somehow stub their toe again next season, he'll be OK.

But that freedom won't last much past 2027.

You need to win football games in Baltimore or people will be on your case in a big way.

Monday November 9, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4460

halfway there - what do we know?

I'll answer the headline. What we "know" about the current NFL season to date is that we probably don't know much of anything.

Wait, I'll take that back.

We know every good team in the league is one bad hit on their quarterback away from being in the basement of their division.

The Ravens are obviously Exhibit A.

The Eagles are Exhibit B. I don't know that Philly was going to be a world beater in the NFC, but they are really, really bad right now with Jalen Hurts.

There are exceptions, of course. The Vikings are having a really nice start to their season and Kyler Murray is their quarterback. I think. I'm not actually 100% sure who quarterbacks the Vikings. That's what makes their start so impressive.

So, we might not know much, but we do know if you lose your franchise QB for an extended period of time, you're cooked.

But what else do we know?

I'm glad you asked.

At the halfway mark of the season, here's the skinny.

We can start with the Ravens, but we've covered them and all of their blemishes ad nauseum for the last month.

Everything changed when Lamar got hurt.

That said, this could also be a bit of a dress rehearsal for the Ravens to change the way they compile their roster in 2027 and beyond.

You spend all of that money (and cap space) on your rock-star quarterback and you don't have enough to spread around to the other crucial positions. Then the QB gets hurt, your offensive and defensive lines lack depth, and you're pretty much cooked for the rest of the season.

When Lamar got hurt, the Ravens season changed dramatically.

Perhaps next year, they spread their money out a little more evenly and have a "Tier 2" guy quarterback the team, in the same way Seattle did that a year ago with Sam Darnold.

There's a lot of ground to seed and water between now and then, though. If Lamar could stay healthy, everything would be perfect. Alas, he can't stay healthy.

So..........decisions have to be made moving forward.

The rest of the season will totally depend on the next four games. If Baltimore can somehow go 3-1 in those four with Jacoby Brissett at the helm, they'll be 7-6 with four games remaining, all against AFC North teams.

It's likely 11 wins will be good enough for the division and 9 wins might snag a playoff spot. Ten wins would almost be a slam dunk.

If the Ravens go 2-2 in these next four, they'll be 6-7 and will likely need to go 3-1 in those final four games (at Pittsburgh, at Cincinnati, home vs. Cleveland, home vs. Pittsburgh). Lamar or no Lamar, going 3-1 in those four would be difficult.

If they go 1-3 against the Chargers, Texans, Panthers and Buccaneers...you can shut out the lights on the post-season hopes.

Heck, if they lose to the Chargers they're probably done. But the Ravens, as maligned as they are, will not lose to the winless Chargers in Baltimore. Right?

Please tell me I'm right.

My guess? Jesse Minter's team will beat the Chargers and Bucs and lose in Carolina and Houston. They'll be 6-7 with four games remaining.

I hope I'm wrong.

And now let's get to the rest of the league and see where things are at with half of the season remaining.

Best Super Bowl potential: At this point, you'd have to say Buffalo and San Francisco are on a collision course to meet in February, particularly if they both get home ice in the playoffs. But all that means is those two won't be there. It's rare the two best teams at the halfway stage make it. Could it be Jacksonville vs. Green Bay? Cincinnati vs. Chicago? Does Kansas City have the horses to get in? The Vikings?

Best team: I think this one is a toss-up. Before they barely snuck past Tampa Bay last night in a mistake-filled game, I probably would have said it could be Chicago. And maybe last night was more about how good the Bucs defense is than anything else, but if the Bears play like that once in January, they'll be out. I'm guessing San Francisco is the best team right now. Jacksonville has been impressive and they looked good in Baltimore, but they were pretty much playing the B team of the Bad News Bears. I think the jury is out on Buffalo's defense. They can score 30, but they might give up 31. Let's go with the 49'ers as the best team halfway home.

Team on the rise to watch: Again, maybe this is recency bias, but Green Bay looks very legit. Yesterday's win in New England might have told us more about the Patriots than the Packers, but Green Bay is starting to hit on all cylinders. But...just like the Bears...they're in a tough division. And they have to keep making birdies until the end of the season. One bad week or two could severely damage their chances.

Oddest good team: I guess it's the Rams. They're now 5-4. They've had a bunch of injuries. Nacua might be out now with a knee problem. Myles Garrett finally returned on Sunday in the win over D.C. If they're completely healthy, I think the Rams can beat anyone. But they NEVER seem to be fully healthy. They do have a winning pedigree there. And a crazy coach who always seems to pull an ace at just the right time. I think you'd like to avoid the Rams in the playoffs. If they make it.

Oddest bad team: This has to be New Orleans at 3-5, right? They somehow came to Baltimore and beat the Ravens, then went in the tank for a few weeks, then hung on yesterday to beat the Browns in overtime when Cleveland went for two points in a win-or-go-home move that resulted in them.......going home a loser. I don't think they're any good. But you can't just roll your helmets out there at midfield and beat them, either. Tampa Bay could get some consideration here as well. Their defense is crazy-good. Their offense is lousy, though.

Good team that will eventually go south: It's Pittsburgh. We all know that. Right? Some of you might think it's Jacksonville, but it's the Steelers. I have immense respect for Aaron Rodgers but this magic act of his can't last another two months. The Steelers might sneak into the post-season at 10-7 or 11-6 but they'll be a quick out in January. I thought about putting Minnesota in here, too, but the Vikings defense is so good they might actually make a little noise in the post-season.

Most disappointing team: Sadly, this is the Ravens. Now, there's an extenuating circumstance. His name is Lamar Jackson. The Ravens would NOT be 4-5 if Lamar had played all nine games to date. But those of us who watch them play know the Ravens do have issues that don't include #8. The Baltimore defense is terrible. The head coach is supposedly a defensive guru and, well, so far, he's not doing a whole lot of defensive guru'ing. The Chargers receive consideration here at 0-8, but no one really thought L.A. was going to the Super Bowl. A lot of people thought the Ravens would represent the AFC in the big game, hence their designation as "most disappointing team" thus far.

Most surprising team: I'll flip a coin between the Browns and Giants. Cleveland was a converted 2-pointer from being 6-3 before losing in New Orleans yesterday. I don't think they're good. But they are surprising. The Browns have 5 wins. I figured they'd win 6 games. 7 at the absolute most. And the Giants are fortunate, of course, that they play in the NFL Least. No one in the division is any good. But New York is 5-2-1, which is pretty impressive given their quarterback situation. Either of those teams could get the "most surprising" award.

The "still not 100% sure they're legit" team: I'll go with Seattle here. With all due respect, they're not repeating as champions with Sam Darnold at quarterback. And the 49'ers are the real deal and in the same division/conference, which also doesn't help their chances. I don't really think Denver is all that good, either, but they somehow keep surviving week after week.

Best player in the league this year so far: Before last night's debacle, I would have said it was Caleb Williams. But last night pushed him behind Joe Burrow, I'd say. It was only one game, sure, and that Bucs defense is the real deal, but Williams looked like he was really spooked for the last three quarters of the game. It helps Burrow that he has some stud receivers to throw to, sure, but he's having a great year nonetheless.

Team I have a bad feeling about: I'm not overly concerned about the Bengals, but you have to tip your cap to them thus far. They haven't really done a whole lot of "Bengal'ing" this season. I assume they will goof this up at some point, but right now, they're showing signs of being a legit contender. I have a bad feeling. But I'm holding out hope that eventually.......Bengals gonna Bengals will prevail. I also have a weird feeling that Kansas City might just hang around long enough to get a bye in the playoffs, win their first game, then go to Buffalo and win in the AFC title game. I hope I'm wrong on that one. For as much as I don't know I want to see the Bengals in the Super Bowl, I definitely would rather see them in there than the Chiefs, again.

Sunday November 8, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4459

news and notes and rebuttals

I always say this about owning and running a sports website: It's pretty much just like sports talk radio.

Everyone has an opinion (which is good).

Nearly everyone thinks they know as much as the people running the team or coaching the team (that's not always good).

When the team wins, fewer people opine. When the team loses, everyone chimes in (it is what it is).

A certain percentage of people who do contribute commentary are often out in left field ("I think the Orioles should trade Colton Cowser and Cade Povich for Paul Skenes. He would really help us.")

Now, from my vantage point here -- and, sure, I'm biased -- I think we tend to have a higher-quality of contributors to this site. We have a few pesky trolls, sure, but almost all of you are well-intentioned, cogent, intelligent writers and authors of sound doctrine.

But you are like sports talk radio in that we get more traffic (visits to the site) and more commentary when the teams lose. And that's not a low blow...it's just a fact.

I thought I'd peruse the comments today and just offer some thoughts on things I read. I might throw in an agreement or two or offer a rebuttal or two. With the Ravens being off today, this is a good chance to have a bit of an "open forum" kind of day here at #DMD.

Someone mentioned not seeing Tyler Huntley on the bench on Thursday night in response to me mentioning that I thought Lamar not being on the bench was an indicator of bad leadership from the veteran quarterback.

First, I realize Lamar gets treated with kid gloves in town and I get it to some degree. As we've seen here over the last month, if he doesn't play, the Ravens are likely to lose. So we're hesitant to criticize him given his obvious value to the club.

That said, unless there's some sort of valid excuse (illness), there's no reason for Lamar to not be down there on the sideline on Thursday night.

As for Huntley, I'm willing to give him a smidgen of a pass based on his injury (toe). Perhaps he's in a boot. Maybe he was told to keep it elevated for some period of time. I don't know the answer to that. But all things being equal, he, too, should have been down there on the sidelines helping Fagnano.

Now, for all I know, Lamar had surgery on Wednesday and was told to stay home on Thursday. That's why I noted, "unless there was a specific reason" why he wasn't down there, he should have been on the bench with Fagnano.

People love to overreact to criticism. My being critical of Lamar doesn't mean I think he's a bad quarterback or a bad teammate or anything like that. It's an observation. And, yes, it's a criticism of him if, in fact, he was able to be down there on the bench and just "didn't feel like doing it".

I'd also put some of that on Jesse Minter. "Hey, Lamar, this kid has no idea what he's doing. I need you down there with him going through stuff when he comes to the sideline." If Minter didn't mention that to Lamar, he gets some blame, too.

A lot of people are on Eric DeCosta these days and that's mostly because we live in a scapegoat society. Some years it was Greg Roman or Greg Mattison or Wink Martindale or Zach Orr.

John Harbaugh became public enemy #1 somewhere along the way.

It's always someone. And it's rarely the players who get the blame. It's either coaching or player personnel.

DeCosta is the guy who mainly picks the team, it's true. There are some department heads and scouts who have a say in who gets put in front of DeCosta, but the final decision on roster spots usually falls in his lap.

As I always say, we tend to think about the good signings, good trades and good draft picks and we only focus on the bad ones.

DeCosta traded for Derrick Henry.

He picked Zay Flowers.

He drafted Tyler Linderbaum. He also let him get away to Las Vegas, too.

He drafted Isaiah Likely. Anyway...

You get it. I'm not going to go on and on and defend him.

We could do this for hours. Highlight the good ones and the bad ones.

The roster is, ultimately, DeCosta's baby. If the players are underperforming, there's really only one of three things we can say about that: 1) They're fully capable but are not being coached properly. 2) They're not fully capable and were "bad choices" by the Ravens GM. 3) They were once fully capable and now they're older and simply on the downside of their career.

Let's also remember that DeCosta was directly involved in the hiring of Jesse Minter. That's a story for another paragaph. But DeCosta also basically helped pick the coach, too.

One basic summary and opinion I have of the Ravens is this: They're front runners. And front runners are usually soft.

There's a lot to unpack with that comment, and that's not even a 2026 opinion. The Ravens have had this "personality" for a while now.

I think you've seen a lot of evidence of that summary and opinion over the last four weeks. They lost Lamar and immediately went into the tank. Yes, they escaped Atlanta with a win, but as we can now pretty much state as fact, that was a fluke. They lost to Cleveland, Cincinnati, Buffalo and Jacksonville and looked to be in "give up" mode throughout most of those games.

Soft teams get punched in the mouth at home like the Ravens did against the Bengals and Jaguars.

Tough teams might lose those games, but they're not getting humiliated.

Soft players blame the fans for "not cheering enough".

Tough players rally even in the darkest times and figure out a way to compete.

Over the last few years, a lot of folks pinned the team's woes on the head coach and that's part and parcel of being in that position and making $18 million a year.

The thing we now know: The head coach wasn't soft. He might have made some mistakes, which they all do, and his time in Baltimore had reached its expiration date. But he wasn't soft. His players (mostly) were, though.

This particular group is soft. They're front runners. When things are great, they shoot videos for their social media pages, dance around, laugh and look like world beaters.

When things aren't great, they sneak out of the locker room, hide if they can and blame the fans for not "bringing it".

Last January, Steve Bisciotti changed the head coach and all of his helpers.

This January, perhaps he should change the players if things don't improve.

J.R. and some others recently have commented about Jesse Minter and his first season, warning -- or reminding -- us that he gets a certain grace period to get himself on the right track as a new head coach.

I agree with that, by the way.

I don't know that it's etched in stone precisely how many years he gets for this "ramp up" period, but the very minimum is two and I think something like three is probably more fair.

And it's important to remember this is Steve Bisciotti we're talking about. He's not a knee jerk "fire the coach" kind of guy. Unless something wacky happens, Minter's getting at least five years to prove he can do the job.

Now, there is one caveat to that. If Bisciotti were to somehow fire Eric DeCosta, a new general manager might come along and say, "I get to bring in my own coach if I want to, right?"

That would be very normal. A general manager usually wants to pick his own coach. I mean, DeCosta picked his last January, after all.

And let's get back to Minter for a second. We're already starting to see people in town sour on him despite losing his quarterback for the majority of the season (we think).

I have no idea if he's a long term fixture in Baltimore. I sure hope he is. Coaching instability is arguably the worst thing an organization can have, in any sport.

But I do have an idea about this: A head coach's number one job is to oversee the culture within his team and make sure it bears fruit at every turn. We have not yet seen Minter do that in Baltimore.

If you just flew in from Pluto and watched the Ravens play and didn't know John Harbaugh had been fired, you'd think he was still the coach.

If you just flew in from Pluto and watched how the Ravens handle prosperity and success, you'd assume Harbs was still in command.

If you just flew in from Pluto and watched how the team reacts after losing a game or games in succession, you'd assume the team was still being run by John Harbaugh.

Jesse Minter hasn't changed anything. Most coaches come in and do the "there's a new sheriff in town" routine and change things up.

Minter put up his own slogans and signs in the building and came up with some of his catch-phrases and such, but that's all eyewash. Roquan Smith isn't going to play better football because he no longer has to put up with hearing "Who has it better than us?" every Sunday.

Lamar Jackson isn't going to get hurt any less and miss any fewer games because he doesn't hear "Iron sharpens iron" from the head coach.

You can change slogans and signs all you want.

But can you change the culture and community within your team? And by changing that, can you and your team win more games?

So far, two months into his tenure, Jesse Minter hasn't done that.

And that's not a low blow...it's just a fact.

---

show me the money, week #9

Teddy Knowsball is like the Ravens. He's circling the drain kind of quickly here at SMTM. He went 2-3 last week and now has the exact opposite record of Molly. He's 13-27 and she's 27-13.

I'm still above .500, but I need a good week or two to gain ground on our leader, who went 4-1 again last weekend.

Since there's no Ravens game, we've added the Sunday night contest to the ledger. Teddy picked the other four games you'll see below.

Year to Date

1. Molly - 27-13 (5-3 Best Bet)

2. DF -- 21-19 (5-3 Best Bet)

3. Teddy Knowsball -- 13-27 (2-6 Best Bet)

Today's games:

NY Giants at Philadelphia (+3)

DF -- The Giants a road favorite? In Philly? WTH? Well, that's more about the Eagles than the Giants. Neither of these teams are all that good. If the NY Football Giants can't beat this lousy Philly team, they're in trouble. Pick: Giants (-3)

Teddy -- Pick: Giants (-3)

Molly -- Pick: Eagles (+3)

Cleveland at New Orleans (-3)

DF -- This is a big one for the Browns. If they're legit, they go down there to N.O. and win this game. The Saints are one of the stranger teams in the league. Good one week, terrible the next three. I'm guessing today is not one of those "terrible" examples. Pick: Saints (-3) (Best Bet of the Week)

Teddy -- Pick: Saints (-3) (Best Bet of the Week)

Molly -- Pick: Browns (+3)

Los Angeles Rams at Washington (+4.5)

DF: I don't know what to make of the Commanders. Then again, I didn't think the Rams would be 4-4 at this point, either, so I'm not sure about them. I'll buy into the whole "west coast to east coast" thing and take the home team. Not sure they'll win, but I think they'll hang tough. Pick: Commanders (+4.5)

Teddy -- Pick: Rams (-4.5)

Molly -- Pick: Commanders (+4.5) (Best Bet of the Week)

Green Bay at New England (-3)

DF -- This sets up to be one of the better games of the day. Two teams who are on the outer edges of Super Bowl chatter meeting up on a nice Fall day in the Boston area. Should be a good one. Pick: Packers (+3)

Teddy -- Pick: Patriots (-3)

Molly -- Pick: Packers (+3)

Tampa Bay at Chicago (-6)

DF -- Everything here points to the Bears blowing the Bucs out of the water here. Chicago is very talented offensively. But Tampa Bay's defense is good. Maybe it's not a blow out after all. Pick: Buccaneers (+6)

Teddy -- Pick: Buccaneers (+6)

Molly -- Pick: Bears (-6)

Saturday November 7, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4458

teetering

I'll let Randy Morgan do most of the heavy lifting here today.

You'll find his excellent review of the 33-10 debacle on Thursday night below. Even though we all presupposed it was going to be a loss, it's still good to catch Randy's insight on the loss to the Jag-u-ars.

Editor's note: I say "Jag-wires" and don't really care to change it. I know it's pronounced "Jag-you-ars" but I don't feel like putting in the effort, just like I've heard people this week on both WBAL and WMAR TV say "for dubya-BAL, I'm XXXX" or "for dub-ya MAR, I'm XXXX". That's a sure sign the person you're listening to or watching is an amateur. It's "double-u" BAL and "double-u" MAR. The first lesson I learned at broadcasting school in 1981. It's a "W". A double-u. Not a dub-ya.

So, while Randy looks back at Thursday night and gives you the good (if there was any), bad and ugly, I'll just chime in with one thought here today and you can either agree or disagree and run with it as you see fit.

This 2026 Ravens team is one loss to the Chargers away from quitting on the season.

You can feel it in the air, as the great Phil Collins once said.

The Ravens are teetering.

And if they somehow lose to the Chargers next Monday night, they're going to pack it in. That's what I believe.

They're almost there now. The only thing probably saving them is a fortunate patch of the schedule where they play a bunch of slappies for a month.

This was always going to be the get-well part of their schedule after a tough October. In a perfect world, with Lamar healthy, they would be feasting on the likes of the Chargers, Panthers, Texans and Buccaneers before that final month of games against their friends from the AFC North.

Instead, they're on the brink of disaster and, in my mind, throwing in the towel if this doesn't turn around in their next game or two.

Jacoby Brissett to the rescue. Who woulda thunk it?

You're starting to see signs of quitting already, it's just not quite apparent to the naked lie. You have to look closely. But you can see it.

Marlon Humphrey posting dumb stuff on the internet Friday is an early sign. He's stirring the pot. Distracting people from the real issue, which is his play and that of the team is eroding right before us.

The whole "blaming the fans" angle is another early warning sign. "It can't be us...we're great players. There have to be other reasons why we're struggling."

Body language is a huge indicator as well. In the home loss to the Bengals, much was made around town of players milling around on the sideline in the fourth quarter, some laughing, some staring up at the sky, some looking up in the stands at who-knows-what.

Thursday night vs. Jacksonville, you had players openly checked out in the second quarter. Zay Flowers looked like he had the option of playing football or settling in for a root canal and he chose playing football. He couldn't have cared less on Thursday once the score was 17-3.

That's how he "looked", anyway. Flowers might argue the contrary, he being a professional and all. But the optics on Thursday night were not good. It appeared like Flowers didn't care.

Player performance is an indicator of give-up, too.

We've already chronicled Humphrey and his eroding play. We don't need to beat that dead horse. Malaki Starks got roasted in the Jaguars game but at least he played. Nate Wiggins didn't even bother. "Illness" was the official declaration from the team.

I don't know about you, but if the team is 4-4 and on the brink of losing a fourth straight game, I'd have to have diphtheria to not play in the game. If I'm hospitalized, I can't play. Otherwise, I'm freakin' playing.

Anyone see Trey Hendrickson this season?

I heard the Ravens acquired him back in the summer.

Rumor? Or fact?

And the penalties. Holy amateur night.

It was so bad on Thursday that we got duped into jumping offsides on a 4th and 4 play -- at home! How much are you not paying attention when you fall for that at home?

Amateur hour stuff.

The Chargers will come to town next Monday night at either 1-7 or 0-8 and both instances could be problematic for the Ravens.

If L.A. beats visiting Houston tomorrow, they get their first win and perhaps start feeling a little better about themselves with the pending trip to Charm City on the horizon.

If the Texans win and L.A. comes to town at 0-8, I feel nervous about that, too. They're not going to lose all of their games. Right? And who better to finally beat then a team on a four-game-losing-streak with a career journeyman at quarterback who has had more clubs than Fred Couples?

And a team on the verge of throwing in the towel, let's not forget.

No two ways about it, the Ravens will be ripe for a loss to the Chargers next Monday. You can feel it coming, almost.

L.A. loses to the Texans tomorrow on a last second field goal, 26-23, then comes stumbling into Baltimore at 0-8 and pieces together a decent night offensively and eeks out a 23-20 win on their own last second field goal after Brissett fumbles the ball with 1:49 to go in the game.

I hate to be a Debbie Downer, but this is where things are headed.

The Ravens are teetering on one of those epic, Orioles-like, collapses where they just find new ways to lose until they eventually just sorta-kind give up and roll over into the fetal position for the last month of the season.

Tell me what player on the team is going to stop that from happening.

I'll be here waiting.

Who is going to stand up in the locker room and put everyone on blast and say, "This isn't good enough!"??

Marlon Humphrey? (LOL)

That would be a hoot, huh?

And speaking of leadership, here's a question I'd love answered: Where was Lamar on Thursday night?

Every single time the camera panned to Joe Fagnano on the bench, he was sitting there by himself looking like Scott Jennings from CNN on Tuesday night as he watched the election results come in.

Why wasn't Lamar right there with that kid, on the bench, talking him through the game?

Leadership matters.

I checked the rules. What I can find online indicates a player on the injured list is allowed to be on the sidelines but can't wear "equipment" of any kind or a team jersey. Maybe that rule has changed and the internet hasn't been changed to reflect that.

Maybe he had surgery on Tuesday or Wednesday and was told to stay home on Thursday.

Or maybe Lamar didn't want to stand out there in the rain.

Unless there was a specific reason why he wasn't on the bench with the team, he should have been on the bench with the team.

That's a little thing, but those little things matter. Where was Lamar when Fagnano came to the sideline?

Anyway, the only way there's no collapse moving forward is if the Ravens somehow piece together a few wins in a row. If they beat the Chargers and Panthers and then go to Houston and win at the end of the month, now we might have some life.

But those are three HUGE "ifs".

Those games should be won, yes. Even with Jacoby Brissett under center. But everything has to go perfectly for the Ravens in order for them to win a game these days.

If their chakras are lined up, they could win.

Otherwise, I feel like we're on the verge of seeing a team quit on their season right before our very eyes.

I'd love to be wrong.

We'll see if I am.

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

first and five: it's not just the quarterback

The Ravens lost their fourth consecutive game Thursday night, falling 33-10 to the Jacksonville Jaguars in another performance that was as frustrating as it was predictable.

For the first time in franchise history, they have lost three consecutive games by at least 20 points. The Ravens have also scored fewer than 14 points in four straight games, another franchise first.

After starting the season 4-1, they're now 4-5 and sitting at the bottom of the AFC North.

It's difficult to get too upset about losing a game with a banged up, undrafted rookie quarterback making his first NFL start on a short week, in the rain, against one of the better teams in the AFC. Joe Fagnano was never supposed to be in this position, and the Ravens were never constructed to win football games with him under center.

But the quarterback situation is becoming a convenient explanation for an increasingly troubling collection of problems elsewhere.

The penalties are ridiculous. The secondary continues to get torched. The defense can't consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks despite substantial investments in its defensive front. And the second-half collapses that were supposed to disappear with the coaching change have somehow become even worse.

The Ravens have now been outscored 84-10 after halftime during their four-game losing streak. Lamar Jackson's absence explains a lot. It doesn't explain everything.

Before going back through the tape, here are my five biggest takeaways from another miserable Ravens performance.

1. Fagnano showed why he was an emergency quarterback

There is a reason Joe Fagnano entered this season as the Ravens' third-string quarterback, and Thursday night provided a fairly comprehensive demonstration.

Fagnano completed 10 of 18 passes for 60 yards and two interceptions. His longest completion went for 14 yards, and the Ravens attempted just one pass that traveled at least 10 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

That's not a sustainable NFL passing offense.

To be fair, Fagnano was put in an almost impossible situation. Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley were both on injured reserve, Fagnano was dealing with an ankle injury of his own, and he had only a few days to prepare for his first career start against an excellent Jacksonville defense.

It was never reasonable to expect him to play anything resembling a competent NFL starter. Declan Doyle certainly understood that.

Rather than asking Fagnano to execute a conventional offense, Doyle emptied the playbook of just about every unusual formation and running concept he could find.

Derrick Henry took 10 direct snaps, twice his previous career high. The Ravens mixed in Wildcat formations, misdirection, quarterback movement and different backfield alignments to create uncertainty about who would actually receive the football.

Some of it was pretty clever.

The opening possession demonstrated the idea. The Ravens moved the ball far enough to get Jake Moody a 53-yard field-goal opportunity, which he converted. For a moment, it looked like the Ravens might be able to shorten the game, move the chains and give their defense enough opportunities to keep Jacksonville within reach.

But the limitations became obvious.

Jacksonville coach Liam Coen acknowledged afterward that the Jaguars had practiced extensively against the Wildcat during the week. They weren't particularly surprised by Baltimore's approach.

More importantly, Jacksonville had very little reason to respect the Ravens' passing game. When a defense doesn't believe the quarterback can consistently threaten anything beyond the underneath routes, it can crowd the line of scrimmage, attack the running lanes and force the offense to execute against unfavorable numbers.

That's exactly what happened.

The Ravens were occasionally able to create a favorable matchup or fool a defender with misdirection. But there was no reliable way to recover from a negative play. A false start, a run stuffed for a loss or an incomplete pass could effectively end a possession.

Henry finished with 57 yards on 17 carries. The Ravens' final rushing total of 172 yards looks considerably better until you remember that 65 of those yards came on Justice Hill's fourth- quarter touchdown run with Jacksonville already leading 33-3.

Even the creative plays eventually became less effective. Mark Andrews was stopped for no gain on a direct snap, and another Wildcat attempt ended with a mishandled fourth-down snap.

Doyle deserves credit for trying to manufacture offense under extraordinary circumstances. Not every design worked, but the Ravens at least had a coherent approach to dealing with a quarterback who couldn't reasonably be expected to carry a normal passing attack.

The problem was that Jacksonville eventually realized there wasn't much to fear once the tricks stopped working.

Fagnano is an interesting developmental quarterback who earned his roster spot with a strong preseason. None of that means he was ready to start an NFL game against a legitimate contender.

He wasn't.

And without a functional passing game, everything else had to go almost perfectly.

It didn't come close.

2. The penalties have become indefensible

I feel like I've written some version of this section every week.

The Ravens have a penalty problem.

They committed seven accepted penalties for 46 yards against Jacksonville, including four false starts. That brings their season total to an NFL-leading 24 false starts through nine games.

Twenty-four.

This is no longer a case of an offensive lineman occasionally anticipating the snap or a defender getting called for an aggressive play.

It's a team-wide failure of preparation and execution.

Thursday's most infuriating sequence came in the second quarter when Ronnie Stanley and Mark Andrews committed consecutive false starts, turning a manageable second-and-5 into second-and-15.

With Lamar Jackson, that's frustrating but potentially recoverable.

With Joe Fagnano?

You might as well send the punter onto the field.

The Ravens actually managed to gain some of those yards back before eventually punting, but that was precisely the kind of situation they couldn't afford to create. They needed to remain ahead of the chains, keep Jacksonville guessing and avoid obvious passing downs.

Instead, two experienced veterans made consecutive procedural mistakes.

And the offense wasn't the only unit contributing.

On Jacksonville's second possession, the Jaguars faced fourth down and appeared content to try drawing Baltimore offside before settling for a field goal.

Nnamdi Madubuike obliged, jumping into the neutral zone and giving Jacksonville a first down. The Jaguars eventually kicked the field goal anyway, but not before consuming additional time and extending a possession the Ravens had already stopped. There are few more infuriating mistakes in football than jumping offside when an opponent is clearly trying to get you to do exactly that.

Jesse Minter called the pre-snap penalties unacceptable afterward and acknowledged that the responsibility belongs to both players and coaches.

He's right.

But we've reached the point where acknowledging the problem is becoming almost as repetitive as the problem itself. These penalties were happening when Lamar was healthy. They continued with Huntley. They're still happening with Fagnano. They've involved veterans, rookies, offensive linemen, receivers and defenders. Doyle's offense features substantial movement, shifting and cadence variation, all of which can make defensive assignments more difficult. But complexity only creates an advantage if your own players can execute it reliably.

The Ravens are nine games into the season. They aren't learning a new offense in May. At some point, the coaching staff has to simplify the operation, change how these situations are practiced or reconsider whether certain players can reliably execute what they're being asked to do.

Baltimore entered Thursday knowing it had almost no margin for error.

Then it spent the evening manufacturing its own mistakes.

3. The Ravens can stop the run. Apparently they can't stop anyone from throwing.

There were parts of Thursday's defensive performance that were genuinely encouraging. Jacksonville rushed 30 times for only 77 yards, averaging 2.6 yards per carry. The Jaguars converted just four of 12 third downs and finished with 319 total yards.

Those are not the numbers of an offense that completely dominated the game from start to finish.

In fact, Jacksonville needed only 56 offensive plays to score 33 points, and three Baltimore turnovers handed the Jaguars favorable scoring opportunities. The defense deserves some credit for limiting the running game and forcing Jacksonville into field goals rather than touchdowns on several possessions.

Unfortunately, almost every time the Jaguars needed a big play through the air, somebody in the Ravens secondary was available to provide one. On Jacksonville's second offensive snap, Trevor Lawrence found blocking tight end Nate Boerkircher wide open for 52 yards after he got behind Marlon Humphrey.

Let that sink in.

A blocking tight end ran past a former All-Pro cornerback for a 52-yard gain. Humphrey has been a terrific player for the Ravens for years, but I don't know how much longer we can pretend that the version we're watching this season is anywhere close to the player he used to be.

He looks totally washed.

Maybe there is still a role for him in certain packages or matchups. Perhaps he can remain useful closer to the line of scrimmage, where his physicality and experience still provide value.

But the Ravens cannot keep treating Humphrey like a cornerback who can handle whatever coverage responsibility they give him.

The more damaging breakdown came just before halftime. Jacksonville led 10-3, and the Ravens had actually managed to keep the game competitive despite the offensive limitations.

Then Minter sent pressure that Jacksonville handled with ease, allowing Lawrence to find Parker Washington matched against Malaki Starks in man coverage, and Washington ran away for a 50-yard touchdown.

Suddenly it was 17-3 and it was pretty much ballgame.

There is some responsibility to distribute here. Starks has to execute the coverage assignment, but Minter also chose to expose his secondary with pressure in a situation where preventing an explosive touchdown should have been a particularly important consideration. Minter explained afterward that he wanted to be aggressive because he understood how difficult it would be for his offense to recover from another Jacksonville score.

I understand the logic. Aggression itself wasn't necessarily the mistake.

But the blitz didn't get home, the protection held up and the coverage behind it failed spectacularly. Lawrence completed only nine passes in the first half. Those nine completions produced 197 yards and six gained at least 15 yards.

That's a remarkable amount of damage for a defense that was otherwise doing a reasonable job limiting Jacksonville's opportunities.

The pass rush didn't help. Despite having Trey Hendrickson and Nnamdi Madubuike on the field, the Ravens failed to sack Lawrence once. The Ravens spent the offseason adding premium defensive talent specifically to avoid being so dependent upon blitzing to create disruption and the pass rushers are just not getting it done with any kind of consistency.

There was one defensive player who consistently stood out positively.

Kyle Hamilton was excellent before leaving with a hip injury. He nearly produced a safety with an outstanding tackle for loss near Jacksonville's goal line and later came close to intercepting Lawrence. Hamilton remains the player most capable of changing a game defensively, whether he's attacking near the line of scrimmage, covering a receiver or disguising his assignment before the snap.

Unfortunately, he was ruled out during the third quarter. Minter didn't have an update afterward, so we'll have to see what the injury means for the upcoming schedule.

The defense has some legitimate injury problems, including Nate Wiggins' absence Thursday.

But there's a larger issue that injuries alone cannot explain. The Ravens have invested heavily in their defensive backs, have multiple first-round selections throughout the secondary and hired a head coach whose reputation was built around sophisticated defensive football.

Yet opponents continue to create enormous passing plays with alarming ease. It's especially frustrating because the defense occasionally demonstrates exactly what it should be capable of doing. The front can control the running game. Hamilton can disrupt almost anything. There are stretches when the coverage and pressure work together effectively.

Then somebody gets isolated, loses his assignment or gives up a ridiculous amount of space.

And another promising defensive possession disappears.

4. Brissett might make the offense functional. That won't make the Ravens good.

The Ravens are reportedly finalizing a trade with Arizona for Jacoby Brissett, who is expected to become their starting quarterback against the Chargers.

That should represent a substantial improvement over what we watched Thursday. Brissett has spent more than a decade in the NFL. He understands protections, can operate a conventional passing offense and has enough experience to recognize what defenses are presenting before the snap.

He won't require Doyle to turn half the playbook into an elaborate collection of direct snaps and misdirection, but we should also recognize what kind of quarterback the Ravens are getting.

Brissett completed 63.3% of his passes for 1,719 yards, 10 touchdowns and seven interceptions in eight starts with Arizona this season. He averaged only 5.6 yards per attempt and posted a 79.7 passer rating.

He was recently benched by the Cardinals.

Those are not the numbers of a quarterback likely to rescue a disappointing season. However, he should allow Doyle to return to more conventional formations, attack intermediate areas of the field and give Zay Flowers opportunities to do something other than collect a two-yard completion with multiple defenders waiting nearby.

Derrick Henry should also benefit from opponents having to respect an actual passing game. But Brissett isn't Lamar Jackson, and replacing Fagnano won't address the problems everywhere else.

Brissett can't stop Ronnie Stanley from false-starting.

He can't prevent Humphrey from getting beaten downfield.

He can't make the pass rush finish its assignments or teach the secondary how to handle an opponent's halftime adjustments.

And he can't magically turn the Ravens' offensive line into a consistent unit.

This season has exposed something uncomfortable about the currently constructed roster.

We knew Lamar was exceptional. We knew his unique abilities covered for occasional protection failures and created rushing opportunities that other quarterbacks couldn't manufacture. But the expectation was that the Ravens had built a team around him that was strong enough to survive stretches without him.

A talented defense. A dominant running back. Experienced veterans. A creative coaching staff. Instead, the quarterback injuries have revealed how fragile everything else can be.

The Ravens aren't simply missing the extra plays Lamar creates.

They're missing the margin for error his presence provides.

Brissett may make the next eight games considerably more watchable. He may even help Baltimore win enough games to remain on the fringes of the playoff conversation.

But there is little reason to believe that adding a mediocre veteran quarterback will suddenly transform the rest of this team into a championship contender.

The only glimmer of hope would be that he can keep them close enough to contention that a potential late-December return by Lamar could matter. But with no confirmation Lamar has even had the surgery or any indication of a timeline, you have to wonder if the Ravens wouldn’t be better off taking their lumps and getting the best draft position possible.

5. Jesse Minter deserves a grace period. He doesn't deserve immunity.

I'm not going to sit here and suggest Jesse Minter should be fired nine games into his first season as an NFL head coach.

He inherited a roster with legitimate championship expectations and then watched his franchise quarterback get injured, his backup quarterback get injured and his offensive line spend much of the season operating with an assortment of emergency replacements.

Those circumstances matter.

Minter will reasonably receive a pass for much of what has happened this season because of the injuries and because this is his first opportunity to run an NFL team.

But there is a question we need to start asking.

What exactly has Jesse Minter improved?

Think about the criticism that surrounded John Harbaugh and Zach Orr at the end of last season.

The Ravens were undisciplined. They couldn't protect leads. Their defense surrendered too many big plays. Opponents adjusted after halftime and Baltimore frequently struggled to respond. Too much depended upon Lamar Jackson rescuing the offense.

Harbaugh was fired after 18 seasons because the organization believed a different coaching staff could do better with this roster.

Now we're watching the same problems under entirely different leadership. If Harbaugh and Orr were still here, producing these results, even without Lamar, Ravens fans would be calling for their jobs.

And the criticism would be justified.

The most disappointing part is the defense.

Minter arrived with a reputation as one of football's brightest defensive minds. The Ravens gave him a supposedly talented collection of defensive backs, brought back Nnamdi Madubuike after his injury-plagued 2025 season and signed Trey Hendrickson to provide the kind of individual pass-rushing threat that had been missing.

The expectation wasn't merely that the defense would remain respectable.

It was supposed to become one of the strengths of a championship contender.

Instead, let's examine the numbers.

Under Orr in 2025, the Ravens allowed 23.4 points per game, ranking 18th in the NFL.

Through nine games this season, Minter's team is allowing 26.2 points per game, ranking 26th.

Points allowed can be misleading when the offense repeatedly gives opponents short fields, and we've certainly seen plenty of that recently. So the underlying efficiency numbers provide a better comparison.

In 2025, the Ravens allowed +0.020 EPA per defensive play, compared with +0.021 through the first eight games of 2026, before the Jacksonville loss.

That's essentially no improvement whatsoever.

The defensive success rate allowed has actually deteriorated slightly, from 44.1% last season to 44.7% entering Thursday. Opponents are succeeding on a greater share of their offensive plays.

There are some improvements worth acknowledging.

Baltimore's EPA allowed per opposing dropback improved from +0.107 in 2025 to +0.077 this season. The overall rate of explosive plays allowed also dropped from 9.9% to 7.6%.

So not everything has gotten worse, but there hasn’t been any stark improvement.

The rushing efficiency numbers moved in the opposite direction. The Ravens allowed -0.142 EPA per rush last season compared with -0.072 through eight games this year. That's substantially less effective despite Thursday's excellent performance against Jacksonville's running game.

Even the opponent-adjusted numbers show only modest improvement, from +0.018 EPA allowed per play in 2025 to +0.012 entering this game.

The overall picture is not a defense that has been transformed by a new coaching staff and significant personnel upgrades. It's a defense producing roughly the same underlying results as the group whose performance contributed to the previous staff losing their jobs.

And the problems are especially obvious when opponents find something that works.

Against Cincinnati, the Ravens held Joe Burrow to 43 passing yards in the first half, then surrendered 249 passing yards and four touchdowns to him after halftime.

The Ravens have now been outscored 84-10 after halftime during this four-game losing streak. Some of that is obviously the offense's fault. Without Lamar, the Ravens struggle to sustain possessions, which means the defense spends more time on the field and has fewer opportunities to rest.

But the defensive breakdowns have not been limited to the second half of blowouts. They were happening against New Orleans with Lamar healthy. They happened in Dallas when the Cowboys erased an 11-point lead. They happened against Cincinnati when the Ravens had complete control of the game before halftime.

Different opponents. Different circumstances. Similar results.

And that brings us back to the coaching staff.

Minter and defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver have to figure out whether the problems are caused by personnel, scheme, communication or some combination of all three.

Maybe Humphrey simply can't perform the responsibilities the Ravens keep asking him to handle.

Maybe some of the younger defenders aren't ready for the complexity of the coverage system.

Maybe the pressure packages are leaving the secondary exposed too frequently.

Maybe the defense has become too dependent upon Hamilton making extraordinary plays to compensate for everyone else's mistakes.

Whatever the explanation, the responsibility for identifying and fixing those problems belongs to the coaching staff.

And if the current players aren't capable of executing the system, Minter needs to find players who are.

That may require some uncomfortable roster decisions this offseason.

The Ravens have several established veterans whose reputations are beginning to exceed their actual contributions. They can't continue giving players prominent roles simply because they were excellent two or three seasons ago.

Minter also needs to evaluate his assistants honestly. If the same mistakes persist throughout the season, then the coaches responsible for those position groups deserve scrutiny.

This team wasn't supposed to require a rebuild. The Ravens replaced Harbaugh because they believed the roster was good enough to compete immediately with better coaching.

Nine games into the experiment, that assumption looks increasingly questionable. Minter deserves another offseason to identify the right personnel, eliminate the dead weight and put his own stamp on the organization.

But he needs to get it right.

If this defense remains mediocre next season, if the penalties continue and if opposing teams keep dismantling Baltimore after halftime, then Minter could very easily end up as one of the shortest-tenured head coaches in Ravens history.

Friday November 6, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4457

dreary weather, dreary performance

I turned down a ticket and didn't go last night, but as I watched it all unfold from the comfort of my living room, I couldn't help but think the same thing a lot of people probably thought: "Thank the Lord I didn't go down there to watch that fiasco."

It was a thrashing. 33-10 was the final and it could have been 50-3.

Randy Morgan's review of the tail-whipping will be here tomorrow. I'll handle today's commentary. Needless to say, this autopsy is easy to do.

There's not much I can point out that you don't already know.

The Baltimore offense was pretty much non-existent. Save for a long Justice Hill touchdown run just as Al Michaels was snickering about the 39.5 point total with 8 minutes left in the game, the Ravens were listless when they had the ball.

Fagnano was out of his element at quarterback, Derrick Henry looked uninterested, Mark Andrews somehow fumbled a 4th down snap and Zay Flowers quit on a couple of routes and had the body language of 10 year old who was just told he was losing his video game privileges for the night because he didn't clean his room like he was asked.

Oh, and the offensive line? Offensive.

But again, we all know the Ravens aren't the same team without Lamar Jackson.

We just assumed they'd show a little more heart than that last night.

I don't know about you. Your mileage might vary on this one. I really don't care about losing or getting clobbered, even.

Some games you're the bug and some games you're the windshield. Ass kickings happen.

I just don't like seeing a lethargic effort. At least try. You're getting paid, after all. Break a sweat.

The defense, on the other hand, was torched throughout the game, starting with the very first series when Podcast Humphrey got lit up for a big gain that helped set up Jacksonville's first touchdown.

Later on, it was Malaki Starks who got roasted for a 50-yard touchdown throw from Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington.

Hey, at least the new Ravens kicker acquitted himself well.

Other than that, there's nothing else to say, honestly.

It was terrible.

Not unexpected, mind you.

But terrible, still, nonetheless.

It is worth pointing out real quick that Jacksonville appears to be the real deal.

They came in at 5-2 as 10 point favorites, had a gift-horse waiting for them, and didn't flinch. They did exactly what they were supposed to do when you're a good team playing a not-so-good team.

It was a battering on both sides of the ball.

And now the Ravens have to figure out a way to go 3-1 in their next four games to stay alive in the AFC playoff picture. On the surface, that's not an impossible task. They host the Chargers, visit the Panthers and Texans, then host the Buccaneers in December.

That's not exactly a four-game span against the Bills, Chiefs, Rams and Seahawks, in other words.

It's a four-game stretch of games that can definitely be won.

But it stands to reason they're going to have to win those four with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. And, well, let's just call it like it is. Brissett hasn't done a whole lot of winning in his NFL career.

That said, I will go with this theory until proven otherwise. I think Brissett is probably a better option than Tyler Huntley. And I realize Huntley isn't available. I just mean Brissett is more of a "real" quarterback than Huntley. He can throw the ball downfield, which is certainly not a forte of Huntley's.

And, so, on a rainy Thursday in Bawlmer, there was no miracle. There wasn't a heartwarming story about Joe Fagnano having his day (night) in the sun and winning a game in the NFL. It was a mess, both in climate and performance.

---

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faith in sports

The Milwaukee Brewers are champions of the baseball world.

And this video below will show you one of the reasons why is because of the faith many Milwaukee players carry them throughout the arduous 7 month season.

I always love sharing these kinds of videos. And if just one person reading this today and watching the six minute video below decides to look more deeply into their faith, this entry was a success!

Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of #DMD and our Faith in Sports segment that runs here every Friday.

	#DMD GAME DAY Week 9 Thursday — November 5, 2026 Issue #4456
	Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens 8:15 PM EDT M&T Bank Stadium Baltimore, MD Spread: Jaguars (-10)

delusional

You're betting on the Ravens tonight and taking the ten points?

You've lost your mind.

Why not just donate your money to my FCA Golf program? You'll get a tax deduction and feel a lot better about your night, I promise.

I'm kidding.

Not about donating your money to FCA Golf. If you want to do that, let me know and I'll make that happen.

I'm kidding about the "losing your mind" comment. It's not totally out of the realm of possibility that the Ravens put together a virtuoso defensive performance tonight and either pull off a miracle upset or cover the 10-point spread.

Ten points is a lot of points, friends. Especially at home. And the Ravens defense is mostly intact. I get it, the offense appears to be on its last legs with Joe Fagnano quarterbacking and two dudes we've never heard of backing him up. But ten points?

But, while we're on the subject of losing your mind. And being delusional.

Marlon Humphrey was at it again on his podcast that aired Tuesday night.

He has officially lost it.

I'm almost starting to think now that this is all some kind of bit. Shtick. You know, pretty much just outright trolling.

No one can be this obtuse.

I'm not even going to repeat the whole thing word-for-word here because it's borderline-idiotic.

In summary, Humphrey said the fan base is "always freaking out" and has created a "stigma" around the team's defense and its inability to hold second leads.

I wrote about this here last week and, well, I really should thank Humphrey for emphatically confirming what I offered here: Nothing good comes from doing these silly in-season podcasts. There's no value to it. None.

As I said here last week and will say again this week, please name ONE tangible benefit to Humphrey talking publicly -- on his own platform -- about the team on a Tuesday during the season.

This guy is totally delusional.

The fans created a "stigma" about the Ravens defense?

I'm serious, I think the guy is trolling us. There's no way anyone can be this big of a knucklehead. He just can't be.

He'll get a break tonight because no one expects anything out of him or the defense of the team itself.

If the Ravens man up and somehow win, he's a hero.

If they get taken to the woodshed, he can blame the fans for not making enough noise.

One thing for sure: Humphrey won't be blaming himself.

As for the game itself, maybe I, too, am delusional, but I think the Ravens can be in this one and keep it close.

At least through the first half.

Randy Morgan will handle the bulk of our game preview below. As I always do, I'm creating this part of #DMD first and not putting Randy's work on the site until I've finished with my stuff. I have no idea what he thinks about the game or how the Ravens can pull off the upset, if that's even possible.

I do think Jesse Minter's team can stay in this game, but there's really only one way to make that happen.

Against most of the prevailing statistical data, the Ravens have to be able to run the football tonight and run it well. That means Derrick Henry and anyone else has to pile up a lot of yards and, more importantly, shorten the game so Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense only gets somewhere in the neighborhood of ten offensive possessions.

If Henry and the offense can run the ball effectively, chew up the clock, keep Fagnano from having to do anything special in the air and, most importantly, cash in with touchdowns instead of field goals...well, there's the tonic for an upset.

If Jacksonville's defensive line shuts down Henry and the running game, it might be a thumping out there.

But I don't know that I see that happening.

I suspect the Baltimore defense will step up, mostly because they have to. And Fagnano won't be completely useless at the outset.

They'll get 77 first half yards from Henry and the Ravens will play representative football for the opening 30 minutes.

It might even be 10-7 Ravens in the second quarter.

Jacksonville leads 13-10 at the half.

They make it 20-10 early in the third quarter.

Baltimore cuts it to 20-13 with a Jake Moody field goal late in the third, but Jacksonville goes on a long drive to start the fourth quarter and goes up 27-13.

A late Ravens TD makes it 27-20.

And that's how it ends. The Jaguars win, but don't cover, in a 27-20 victory that drops the Ravens to 4-5.

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

salvage the season?

Ravens–Jaguars Week 9 Preview: Joe Fagnano’s first NFL start, Derrick Henry against an elite run defense, and a major test for a Baltimore defense that has forgotten how to finish games.

Thursday, November 5, 2026 | 8:15 p.m. ET | M&T Bank Stadium | Prime Video

Get ready for the game with the Ravens Dashboard: https://dualeights.com/ravens/dashboard/

Things have gone downhill remarkably quickly for the Ravens.

Three weeks ago, they were 4-1, sitting atop the AFC North and looking capable of surviving Lamar Jackson’s ankle injury long enough to get its franchise quarterback back for the second half of the season.

Now the Ravens are 4-4, have lost three straight games, and find themselves preparing to face one of the best teams in football with an undrafted rookie making his first NFL start.

Lamar’s return in Buffalo lasted exactly one offensive snap. His right hand collided with Greg Rousseau on his follow-through, injuring his thumb badly enough to require surgery and a trip to injured reserve.

Tyler Huntley followed him to the sideline with a toe injury and is also lost for the season.

Even Joe Fagnano, the emergency third quarterback who finished the game, managed to injure his ankle.

And now Fagnano gets to start on a Thursday night against a Jacksonville defense that ranks among the NFL’s best.

Terrific.

The Jaguars arrive at 5-2, leading the AFC South and coming off a 42-7 demolition of Indianapolis. They are at the top of our Dual Eights Efficiency Ranking, third in offensive EPA per play and fourth in defensive EPA allowed. They’re averaging 28 points per game while surrendering just 15.9.

The Ravens, meanwhile, have been outscored 71–23 over their last two games and have surrendered an astonishing 134 second-half points this season.

Jacksonville is favored by approximately ten points. Considering the quarterback situation, it’s difficult to argue with that number.

But there are some interesting matchups here, particularly with Jacksonville losing a critical piece of its run defense. The Ravens still have Derrick Henry, plenty of defensive talent and a coaching staff that has occasionally demonstrated an ability to create favorable matchups despite significant injuries.

The question is whether any of that can overcome the enormous disadvantage at quarterback. Here are the five matchups that will determine whether the Ravens can make Thursday night competitive.

1. Joe Fagnano’s biggest challenge might be surviving his own offensive line

It would be easy to look at Fagnano’s numbers against Buffalo and conclude that the Ravens are in serious trouble.

He completed 10 of 21 passes for 91 yards, threw an interception, lost a fumble and was sacked three times. Baltimore finished with just 144 total yards and converted three of 13 third downs.

That was not encouraging.

But it also wasn’t a particularly fair introduction to NFL football.

Fagnano entered after two quarterbacks had already been injured, with virtually no preparation as the starter, against a Buffalo defense that quickly realized the Ravens had almost no ability to handle its pressure packages.

According to Next Gen Stats, the Bills blitzed on 64.5% of Ravens dropbacks, generating 11 blitz pressures and seven quick pressures.

The offensive line offered very little protection.

They allowed 12 quarterback hits and 15 pressures according to Pro Football Focus. Every starting offensive lineman except Ronnie Stanley received a pass-blocking grade below 62.

Fagnano deserves responsibility for his decisions, ball security and accuracy. But evaluating an inexperienced quarterback while defenders arrive almost immediately after the snap tells us relatively little about what he might accomplish with a functional offense around him.

Unfortunately, Jacksonville presents another difficult assignment.

The Jaguars generate pressure on approximately 39.2% of opposing dropbacks, sixth-best in the league according to Sharp Football Analysis.

Josh Hines-Allen, Travon Walker and Arik Armstead provide legitimate threats across the defensive front, while coordinator Anthony Campanile has demonstrated a willingness to use pressure and coverage disguises to force mistakes.

Walker is questionable with a rib injury, but Jacksonville has enough talent to create problems even if he’s limited.

The Ravens have allowed pressure on approximately 40.9% of their own dropbacks, ranking 26th.

That’s not a particularly comforting combination.

The good news is that the offensive line might finally be moving toward something resembling a stable configuration.

Cam Jurgens played all 51 offensive snaps at center against Buffalo after arriving in the October trade with Philadelphia. Rookie Vega Ioane, who missed that game with a knee injury, was a full estimated practice participant Wednesday and appears set to return at right guard.

That would allow the Ravens to field Ronnie Stanley, John Simpson, Jurgens, Ioane and Roger Rosengarten across the line, assuming everyone is available.

Still, Jurgens is learning an entirely new protection system, Ioane has been shuffled between guard and center because of injuries, and the unit has struggled with communication and individual blocking even when its preferred players have been available.

Declan Doyle has to recognize those limitations.

Fagnano demonstrated enough in the preseason, leading the NFL with 509 passing yards, to suggest he can operate an offense when given time. His college experience at UConn also suggests he is more comfortable functioning within structure than trying to improvise his way out of trouble.

That’s how the Ravens should approach this game.

Get the ball out quickly. Use condensed formations and additional tight ends to provide protection. Move Zay Flowers around to create cleaner releases. Give Fagnano simple answers against pressure, particularly through running backs and tight ends.

But Doyle cannot become so conservative that Jacksonville knows every pass is going to travel five yards.

There needs to be enough play action and intermediate passing to prevent Campanile from simply crowding the line of scrimmage.

The objective shouldn’t be asking Fagnano to replace Lamar Jackson.

It should be creating an offense where he doesn’t have to.

2. Derrick Henry is the obvious answer. Jacksonville knows that, too

If the Ravens are going to win this game, Derrick Henry almost certainly needs to be a significant part of the offense.

Henry has rushed for 632 yards and scored nine total touchdowns through eight games. He’s still capable of punishing defenses, and without Lamar or Huntley available, the Ravens have even more reason to put the football in his hands.

There is one rather significant problem.

The Jaguars allow just 77.4 rushing yards per game and a league-low 3.4 yards per carry. Their defense ranks second in EPA allowed per designed run at approximately -0.20.

That number accounts for down, distance and game situation rather than simply measuring rushing yards. Jacksonville isn’t just limiting big gains. It’s consistently putting opponents into worse situations when they attempt to run.

And that’s exactly what the Ravens can’t afford with Fagnano.

Jacksonville did lose starting nose tackle DaVon Hamilton to a season-ending quadriceps injury against Indianapolis. Hamilton is a 335-pound interior defender whose value extends well beyond his tackle totals. He occupies blockers, controls gaps and prevents offensive linemen from working up to the linebackers.

His absence changes the physical structure of Jacksonville’s defense.

Matt Dickerson is expected to take on a larger role, with Ruke Orhorhoro and Albert Regis providing additional depth. None is necessarily incapable of replacing Hamilton, but the Jaguars are losing a player who has been central to their run-defense success.

That should present opportunities for Jurgens and Ioane, particularly on combination blocks where two linemen initially work together against the defensive tackle before one releases toward a linebacker.

If they can generate some movement inside, Henry can get downhill before encountering the first defender.

That has not been happening nearly enough.

Henry is averaging only 0.87 yards before contact per rushing attempt, placing him around 33rd among measured running backs. He has finished with 60 or fewer scrimmage yards in three consecutive games, but the offensive line hasn’t consistently created running lanes, and Baltimore has frequently fallen behind badly enough to abandon the rushing attack.

The Ravens just aren’t giving Henry many opportunities to do what he does best.

There is also a predictability problem.

They run the ball on 62.3% of Henry’s offensive snaps. Without Jackson threatening to keep the football, defensive coordinators can be even more aggressive about attacking Henry’s likely running lanes.

Doyle needs to find ways to make those tendencies less obvious.

Hamilton’s absence creates an opportunity, but it doesn’t magically turn Jacksonville into a bad rushing defense. The Jaguars allowed just 3.6 yards per carry across 48 runs without him on the field this season, although that’s a limited sample.

The Ravens should test the middle of that defense early.

If they can consistently create second-and-5 rather than second-and-9, Fagnano has a fighting chance.

If Henry is repeatedly stopped after one or two yards, the game could get ugly very quickly.

3. Trevor Lawrence is playing exceptionally well, and the Ravens have some dangerous matchups

Jacksonville’s defense gets plenty of attention, but its offense has been every bit as impressive. Trevor Lawrence is enjoying one of the most efficient stretches of his career.

Through seven games, he’s completed 65.7% of his passes for 1,690 yards, 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions. He’s averaging 8.5 yards per attempt with a 112.6 passer rating. His 8.6% touchdown rate leads the NFL, and Jacksonville ranks third in EPA per dropback at +0.27.

Those numbers aren’t simply the product of throwing constantly.

The Jaguars have been winning comfortably enough that Lawrence rarely needs to play aggressive football for four quarters. He has averaged just 5.1 fourth-quarter dropbacks per game, partly because Jacksonville has pulled him early in multiple blowouts.

Against Indianapolis, Lawrence needed only 14 passes to produce 210 yards and three touchdowns.

The Ravens need to prevent that kind of efficiency, not merely limit his total passing yards. The receiving matchups are particularly interesting.

Parker Washington has emerged as Jacksonville’s most productive wide receiver, catching 27 passes for 432 yards and four touchdowns. He’s averaging 16 yards per reception and has become Lawrence’s primary explosive threat.

Brenton Strange has added 28 receptions for 334 yards, while Jakobi Meyers has 22 catches for 309 yards. That distribution means the Ravens cannot simply key in on one go-to receiver. Washington presents a particularly difficult matchup for a Baltimore secondary that has repeatedly been vulnerable to explosive passes.

His ability to threaten vertically forces cornerbacks to protect against the deep ball, creating additional space underneath.

The problem becomes more complicated with Nate Wiggins questionable after dealing with a stinger and illness. Wiggins did not participate in Wednesday’s estimated practice, while Jaylinn Hawkins has already been ruled out with a knee injury.

Chidobe Awuzie could be extremely important.

Awuzie played 43 defensive snaps against Buffalo after seeing just seven over the previous three games combined. He received an encouraging 81.2 PFF grade and may be asked to handle an even larger role if Wiggins cannot play.

The Ravens also have to decide how to deploy Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton has eight tackles for loss this season, the most among NFL defensive backs. His ability to function as a linebacker, safety, slot defender or blitzer remains the most interesting part of Baltimore’s defensive personnel.

Against Jacksonville, that versatility could be especially valuable in defending Strange.

The tight end is averaging 2.11 yards per route and has been targeted on more than 22% of his routes. He’s much more dangerous than his single receiving touchdown suggests.

Hamilton can help disrupt those underneath and intermediate routes, particularly when Lawrence expects Strange to settle into openings between linebackers and safeties.

But moving Hamilton toward the football creates another decision.

Who protects the deep middle against Washington?

If the Ravens devote extra coverage resources to limiting Jacksonville’s vertical passing game, Strange can attack the space underneath. If Hamilton stays closer to the line, Lawrence may get favorable opportunities outside.

That’s where Minter and defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver need their coverage disguises to work.

The Ravens have demonstrated that they can confuse quarterbacks before the snap, rotating safeties and changing which defenders are responsible for different parts of the field.

The problem has been sustaining that effectiveness once opposing offenses adjust.

Lawrence is experienced enough to recognize those adjustments, particularly when Jacksonville can remain efficient on early downs.

And simply blitzing more isn’t necessarily the solution. Jacksonville has produced positive EPA against the blitz this season and has been even more efficient when opponents don’t send additional rushers. The Ravens need to vary where pressure comes from without consistently sacrificing coverage.

There is one potential advantage.

Starting running back Bhayshul Tuten is questionable with a foot/ankle injury after missing all three practices this week. He has 492 rushing yards and has added 181 receiving yards, providing Jacksonville with another explosive option.

If Tuten cannot play, Chris Rodriguez Jr. would likely handle more of the rushing workload. Rodriguez is averaging 4.6 yards per carry himself, so losing Tuten doesn’t eliminate Jacksonville’s running game. But it would remove some of the speed and receiving versatility that makes Coen’s offense difficult to defend.

The Ravens could certainly use that break.

4. Can Minter and Weaver finally solve the second-half collapse?

This is the most concerning trend of the Ravens season that has nothing to do with Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens have been outscored 134-47 after halftime. That’s an 87-point deficit, the worst second-half scoring differential in the NFL.

It’s difficult to comprehend how a team with this much defensive talent can consistently perform so well early in games and then become almost helpless.

Last week in Buffalo, Josh Allen completed just eight of 19 first-half passes for 112 yards with an interception. After halftime, Allen went 13-of-15 for 177 yards and two touchdowns.

Those are astonishing transformations against a defense that frequently looks capable of controlling games for 30 minutes.

There are legitimate explanations that extend beyond the defensive coaching.

The offense has been dreadful without Lamar, and repeated three-and-outs create enormous problems for the defense. Against Buffalo, the Ravens defense played 82 snaps while the offense managed just 51.

That’s an exhausting workload, particularly when the defense is constantly returning to the field after short possessions.

Poor field position, fatigue and injuries can all make an otherwise competent defense look considerably worse.

But those explanations only go so far.

The Ravens were leading Cincinnati at halftime when the Bengals began dismantling the defense. They had enough healthy players and enough preparation to control the first 30 minutes.

Something changed.

Minter and Weaver cannot dismiss every second-half collapse as a product of offensive injuries.

Opponents are recognizing their pressure looks, improving protections, identifying coverage weaknesses and finding ways to get their best players into favorable positions.

The Ravens aren’t consistently finding corresponding answers.

Against Jacksonville, this becomes an especially dangerous problem.

Liam Coen has built an offense that can attack defenses through formations, motion, play action and quick passing. The Jaguars can run the ball effectively, but Lawrence has also demonstrated that he can punish defenses through the air without needing exceptional passing volume.

If Jacksonville identifies something it likes against the Ravens’ coverage structure, Coen has enough flexibility to repeatedly attack it.

The Ravens need to do more than produce a clever opening defensive script.

They must recognize what Jacksonville changes and have answers prepared before Lawrence begins moving the ball effortlessly.

The Ravens replaced John Harbaugh partly because they believed a new coaching staff could get more from a talented roster and eliminate the late-game problems that had become painfully familiar.

Halfway through the season, those problems look worse.

And unfortunately, Jacksonville doesn’t seem like an especially forgiving opponent.

5. The Ravens cannot afford to give Jacksonville extra possessions or short fields

Jacksonville’s defensive profile has one particularly interesting contradiction.

The Jaguars allow approximately 254 passing yards per game, ranking 29th.

At first glance, that sounds like a defense Baltimore might be able to attack through the air, especially with its injuries at safety.

But raw passing yardage tells a very different story from actual defensive effectiveness.

Jacksonville ranks sixth in EPA allowed per dropback. The Jaguars have intercepted nine passes while surrendering just eight passing touchdowns.

They allow a touchdown on only 3.3% of opposing pass attempts, one of the best rates in football.

And opponents average just 3.17 points per scoring opportunity against them, third-best in the league.

That is a defense willing to concede some yardage without consistently allowing those drives to turn into touchdowns.

Some of the passing totals are also influenced by game script. Opponents trailing Jacksonville by multiple scores naturally throw more frequently, generating yardage without necessarily creating much danger on the scoreboard.

The Jaguars also create turnovers.

They have a +7 turnover differential and have scored 55 points directly following takeaways, tied for the most in the league.

That’s a serious problem for an inexperienced quarterback who could be under constant pressure. Fagnano cannot afford to turn a failed third-down play into a disastrous turnover.

There are situations where taking a sack or throwing the ball away is considerably better than trying to manufacture something that isn’t available.

But protecting the football alone isn’t enough.

The Ravens rank 27th in third- and fourth-down conversion rate at 37.8%. Jacksonville’s defense allows conversions on just 38.5% of those opportunities, eighth-best.

If the Ravens are repeatedly facing third-and-7 or longer, the Jaguars can pressure Fagnano without worrying much about Henry. That’s when the sacks, interceptions and short fields become most likely.

The Ravens need to stay ahead of the chains, keep their offense on the field and avoid forcing a tired defense to defend repeated possessions in poor field position.

They also need to finish the few scoring opportunities they create.

That brings another injury into the picture.

Tyler Loop has been placed on injured reserve with a groin injury, leaving Jake Moody to handle the kicking duties.

Moody has made 64 of 82 field-goal attempts in his NFL career. He has experience, but he’s hardly an automatic replacement for a kicker who has demonstrated the ability to make difficult long-range attempts this season.

Minter could face some challenging fourth-down decisions if the Ravens move the ball into the area between reasonable field-goal range and punting territory.

Against a team averaging 28 points per game, settling for field goals may not be enough.

On the other hand, aggressively going for fourth downs without a credible conversion plan could repeatedly hand Jacksonville excellent field position.

The answer isn’t automatically to be conservative or aggressive.

It’s to recognize that the Ravens’ normal offensive expectations no longer apply and make decisions based on what this particular offense can realistically accomplish.

With Fagnano, Henry and a compromised line, those decisions may look very different from the ones Minter would make with a healthy Lamar Jackson.

Prediction: Can the Ravens keep this competitive?

The main hopes for the Ravens this week in circumstances and words like pride, grit, will, and hope.

The home game on a short week should theoretically provide them some advantage, but obviously a banged up third string quarterback undoes most of that.

There’s a vision where Henry finds enough room against Jacksonville’s interior without Hamilton to make the running game efficient. Doyle protects Fagnano with a sensible game plan while giving him a few opportunities to attack downfield. Flowers creates a couple of explosive plays.

The defense limits Lawrence’s big gains, forces Jacksonville to sustain long possessions and finally produces the kind of complete performance that has been missing for several weeks.

If the Ravens can do all of that, they have enough talent to keep this close.

But that’s an awfully long list of things that need to go right.

Jacksonville has the better quarterback, the more consistent offensive line, the stronger defense and considerably more continuity on both sides of the ball.

Its offense is particularly well equipped to attack the weaknesses Baltimore has displayed throughout the season. Lawrence doesn’t need to force throws or wait for deep routes to develop. He can attack underneath, move defenders with play action and punish coverage mistakes when opportunities appear.

The Jaguars also have the kind of defensive front that can turn an inexperienced quarterback’s first start into a miserable evening.

And as much as I want to believe Baltimore’s defense can rescue this game, we’ve watched too many promising first halves dissolve into second-half disasters.

The Ravens need an exceptional performance from their defense and running game just to create a manageable situation for their rookie quarterback.

That’s asking a lot against one of the best teams in football.

Prediction: Jaguars 37, Ravens 17.

Wednesday November 4, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4455

wednesday with greg: tucker, rucker and ????

So this one tomorrow night feels like a lost cause, right?

Not quite a slam dunk that the Ravens lose. But it feels like a layup for the Jags.

Or does it?

You don't think Jacksonville could come here tomorrow and stub their toe? Of course they could.

They're barely a step ahead of the Bengals and Browns when it comes to losing games they otherwise should easily win. "Jaguars gonna Jaguars" isn't exactly a household phrase like "Browns gonna Browns", but Jacksonville is very capable of coming to Baltimore and laying an egg on Thursday night.

If they do lose, it would probably tell us way more about the Jags than it does about the Ravens. If Jacksonville can't beat some guy named Joe Fagnano, they really are paper tigers.

By the way, has anyone else considered how rich the irony would be in this scenario? Back in 2018, a Ravens quarterback named Joe F. was injured and got "Wally Pipp'd" by Lamar Jackson. What if, in 2026, Lamar Jackson got hurt and was "Wally Pipp'd" by......Joe F.?

Think about that one again. What are the freakin' odds of that happening? Joe F. loses his job to Lamar and Lamar loses his job to Joe F. Except it's a different Joe F.

I know it's not happening. Joe Fagnano will have his 15 minutes of fame tonight and maybe again in ten more days and that will be it for him. But it's at least worth thinking about and laughing over while the Ravens stare 4-5 in the face.

Look, I don't see the Ravens winning tomorrow night. But I certainly wouldn't bet on the Jaguars to win outright, either. Trust me, Jacksonville is very capable of spitting the bit on Thursday evening in what might be rainy, dreary Charm City.

Our friend Greg Trehane steps in with several questions for what has become almost a regular Wednesday feature here. He tries to throw a few doozies my way, but I think I handled them pretty well. Let's see if you agree.

By the way, Greg won't tell you so I will. He made his first hole-in-one last weekend at Pine Ridge on the 4th hole. *Golf clap* for our friend on his first career ace.

Let the record reflect I do not have a hole-in-one at Pine Ridge. I did hole out from 150 yards for an eagle 2 at the par 4 15th hole in the 2001 Spring Publinx. That's "like" a hole-in-one, sorta kinda. Alas, it doesn't count as one, obviously.

Mine, in order, are: #6 at Mount Pleasant, #15 at Clifton Park, #4 at Grandview (PA), #14 at Mountain Branch, #3 at Regents Glen (PA) and #9 at Oakland Golf Club (MD). Oddly enough, since the one I made at #9 in Oakland back in 2022, I've witnessed THREE others. #6 at Eagle's Nest, #16 at Eagle's Nest and #11 at Montgomery CC.

Anyway, enough about aces. Let's turn things over to Greg.

Greg: "This one might be touchy but I thought I'd ask. The Ravens have a kicking issue and Justin Tucker was hanging around and available. Did the Ravens screw the pooch by not signing him before the Chiefs got a hold of him?"

DF: "Well, there's two elements to consider. The first one is the easier of the two to address. "Can Tucker still kick in the NFL and be successful?" I think that answer is "yes".

People like to call a guy "washed" after he has one bad season or misses a few kicks he didn't miss the year before. They never consider weather, blockers, etc. They just say, "He's no good any longer" because he missed a few kicks.

I think Tucker is still a competent kicker. Is he the Justin Tucker of four or five years ago? Of course not. But you're talking about a Hall of Fame kicker, not a scrub.

The second part of the issue is the critical one. We all know what that is. Given the circumstances around his departure from the team two years ago, could the Ravens ever bring him back?

I am guessing the Ravens would say "No, we can't".

I do think the optics matter, but so does the context of what went down. Had Tucker fallen on the sword immediately and said, "I was young and dumb and thought my s**t didn't stink because I was a rock star NFL player and I did some really stupid stuff", I think some people would have nodded and said, "You're forgiven" and that would have been it.

But denying it all and trying to paint the massage therapists as "having it out for him" was a terrible look.

I don't see any way the Ravens could ever bring him back. I think they're going to be supremely challenged to even put him in the team's Ring of Honor someday."

Greg: "Any early thoughts on the Maryland basketball team?"

DF: "They should be good. Maybe even very good. Dale Williams is our man-on-the-scene at College Park. He covers the team and the games better than anyone in the market. Dale forgot more about basketball than most of us ever knew.

He thinks the Terps are the real deal. I'll let him come around here sometime soon with a season preview and he can tell you what he sees in his own words. But I know he's impressed with them so far.

I hope they're good. College basketball is great when you're team is decent. The tournament is sooooo much more interesting when you have a team in the hunt.

Like a lot of people, I've lost interest in college sports over the last few years with all of the moving around and transferring. But the Terps are just playing the game that needs to be played to be competitive. I get it.

I suspect they're going to be very good given the early reviews. Fingers crossed."

Greg: "Other than Lamar, who really can't be traded because of a contract stipulation, who are the top three Ravens right now in terms of trade value?"

DF: "It really depends on the needs of the other team. Like, if someone really, really needed a stud running back to finish off their prolific offense, then it's Derrick Henry. If the team needed a wide receiver, it's Zay Flowers. Flowers has more "normal" value than Henry because he's younger.

And then there's Kyle Hamilton. He'd be third. I know a lot people like to do handstands about Hamilton. He's a nice player and all. But he's a safety. He's not winning a football game for anyone the way a running back or wide receiver can.

I'm not trying to downplay Hamilton's quality. I'm just saying he's third on that list and it's probably not close. Henry and Flowers or Flowers and Henry are one, two. Then it's Hamilton third.

I can't see the Ravens trading any of those guys. I guess there's an outside chance they'd trade Henry if they could fleece someone. But all in all, they're holding on to those three for sure."

Greg: "Finish this sentence for me: "If there's one thing about sports I don't understand, it's -------"

DF: "If there's one thing about sports I don't understand, it's that a field goal from 30 yards counts the same as a field goal from 55 yards. It shouldn't. Any goof can make a 30 yard field goal. Kick one from 55 yards and you're a rock star.

30 yards and in should be 1 point.

31 to 39 yards should be 2 points.

40 to 49 yards should be 3 points.

50 to 59 yards should be 4 points.

60 yards or further should be 5 points.

And I know one of the drawbacks is the potential for a team to take a penalty in an effort to "move back" and get an additional point. Well, the defending team could just refuse the penalty, right? There are ways to skin that cat, I'm sure.

Anyway, you asked. That's my answer. I can't figure out, with points and gambling being so important in the NFL, why a 27 yard field goal is worth 3 points and a 54 yard field goal is also worth 3 points. It makes zero sense. BEYOND zero sense."

Greg: "Is there any way Eric DeCosta is on the hot seat in Baltimore? There's a lot of social media criticism for him and the job he's done."

DF: "I don't think so. I mean, let's be honest. And I hate to put everything on the quarterback, but that's the reality of the league. If Lamar doesn't get hurt four times in the last six seasons, there's a good chance the Ravens would have made at least one more AFC title game and maybe even a Super Bowl.

Eric has certainly made a lot of good decisions on players and draft picks. And he's had a whiff or two as well. I think he'd admit the Earl Thomas signing was a knee-jerk reaction to losing C.J. Mosley to the Jets. He didn't do enough due diligence on Thomas in the locker room, where he was almost immediately disliked by the veterans.

He picked Zay Flowers, don't forget. A lot of people wanted the Ravens to take Quentin Johnson there instead of Flowers. And Kyle Hamilton was an Eric pick as well.

But that's all neither here nor there. Most teams hit on their 1st round picks. That's not really anything to brag about.

This question isn't about me, anyway. It's about the Ravens and Steve Bisciotti and what they're going to do. I can't see them firing Eric. If they were going to do that, they would have done it last year when they fired John."

Greg: "You might laugh at this one, but just wondering if you watched any of the WNBA Finals? And if so, what was your impression of the play?"

DF: "You're right, I'm laughing. I know Golden State played Atlanta, right? (checks notes: I was right). I know Angel Reese was on the losing team, which is probably the best part of the whole deal.

No, I didn't watch any of it. Not a minute. Not a second, actually. I do know that Atlanta had some kind of arena snafu and had to play Game 6 somewhere besides their normal building. And it went 7 games and Golden State won.

I also know that the 4th of July Hot Dog Eating Contest on ESPN had more viewers (5 million) than Game 7 of the WNBA championship series (3 million). I'm not sure if that says more about Joey Chestnut or the WNBA, but I thought it was an interesting tidbit.

That does beg the question: "What on earth were those 3 million people doing on the evening of Game 7? There weren't reruns of Hill Street Blues or Welcome Back Kotter on at the same time they could watch?"

Other than that, I'm excited that Angel Reese wound up on the losing end. If you didn't think the basketball gods existed before the WNBA finals, I'm sure you believe they exist now."

Greg: "Can we play some Over Rated and Under Rated with musicians? I'm curious about three names. Darius Rucker, Tom Petty and Jason Mraz. And I'll give you some leeway to give us one Under Rated musician you really like."

DF: All three of those guys were/are underrated. Big time. Rucker has a lot to be proud of given the enormous success of Hootie and the Blowfish and then his own solo career. Most guys (or girls) aren't able to pull that off. I guess Stevie Nicks did it well after Fleetwood Mac. And there are others, obviously. But Rucker has really had a nice career.

I was never a huge Tom Petty fan, but if you pick out his best 14 songs and put them on a "Greatest Hits" CD, I'd challenge you to find someone else with 14 songs as good as his best 14 songs. Tom Petty was really freakin' good.

And Jason Mraz is wildly talented. Just an awesome, very talented singer.

Funny enough, I'll give you someone who is also a lot like the guys you featured; Rucker, Petty and Mraz. I've mentioned Amos Lee here on several occasions before. He's very underrated and also very talented."

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

dual eights efficiency index: jaguars now on top

Jacksonville moves to No. 1, Chicago makes a statement in Seattle, and the Ravens' quarterback crisis sends them tumbling in the Power Index. Meanwhile, some enormous disagreements are emerging between our projections and the Week 9 betting market.

Find the full rankings here: https://dualeights.com/nfl/rankings/

November 3, 2026 | Through Week 8

The Jacksonville Jaguars have taken over the top spot in the Dual Eights Efficiency Index, but the Chicago Bears might have made the biggest statement of Week 8.

Chicago's impressive 34-17 victory in Seattle moved the Bears into second place in both our Efficiency Index and forward-looking Dual Eights Power Index (DEPI). Eight weeks into the season, there is increasingly convincing evidence that the Bears belong among the NFL's elite teams.

Jacksonville made its own case with a 42-7 demolition of Indianapolis, overtaking San Francisco for the first time since Week 4. The 49ers, who were on a bye, dropped to third in Efficiency but remain the strongest team in our Power Index.

Elsewhere, the Rams and Bills made five-place jumps, Tampa Bay continued its unlikely climb toward the top of the rankings despite a 3-5 record, and Seattle suffered the biggest decline of the week.

And then there are the Ravens.

Baltimore's 36-10 loss in Buffalo dropped the team to 4-4, sent it down to 16th in Efficiency and produced a dramatic fall from eighth to 21st in DEPI. That Power Index decline has as much to do with who's available to play quarterback as what happened on Sunday, although the underlying performance is becoming increasingly concerning as well.

1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 69.95

5-2 | Previous: 2 | DEPI: 5 (+5.16)

Jacksonville has been hovering near the top of the Efficiency Index all season. After Sunday's 42-7 demolition of Indianapolis, the Jaguars finally reclaimed first place.

And this wasn't just a case of running up the score against an inferior opponent.

Jacksonville generated +0.199 offensive EPA per play while holding Indianapolis to a miserable -0.392 EPA per play. Both units were excellent, with the defense supplying the largest improvement in the team's adjusted rating.

For the season, Jacksonville is producing +0.164 offensive EPA per play while allowing -0.083 defensively. That is the kind of balance that makes a team particularly difficult to prepare for. Opponents cannot simply shut down one strength and assume the other side will give them opportunities.

Perfect team for the Ravens to play with potentially a QB off the street on Thursday.

The Jags did benefit from a 92-yard interception return for a touchdown last week, so the 42 points was not all offensive dominance, but the underlying numbers remain impressive even after accounting for that.

Jacksonville gained 2.85 Efficiency points and now leads Chicago by 2.32.

Interestingly, DEPI is more restrained, ranking the Jaguars fifth at +5.16. The model acknowledges their excellent performance without projecting that they will necessarily continue playing at the same level.

2. Chicago Bears: 67.64

6-2 | Previous: 4 | DEPI: 2 (+5.85)

The Bears are making a convincing argument that they belong among the inner circle of Super Bowl contenders.

Monday night's 34-17 victory in Seattle was particularly impressive because of the opponent and venue. Seattle entered the game with one of football's strongest defenses, and Chicago walked into Lumen Field and controlled much of the evening.

Caleb Williams completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and a touchdown. More importantly, Chicago's offense generated +0.175 EPA per play against a defense that had made life difficult for nearly everyone.

The Bears were equally impressive defensively, holding Seattle to -0.184 EPA per play.

That performance raised Chicago's Efficiency score by 4.32 points, while DEPI now ranks the Bears second at +5.85.

The Efficiency Index sees a team producing excellent results against quality opponents. The Power Index independently sees a team with the underlying strength to sustain those results.

Chicago's projected offensive contribution alone is +4.25 points. The Power Index also reduces the importance of their offense under backup quarterbacks now that Caleb Williams is back.

At 6-2, Chicago is beginning to look like a legitimate contender rather than merely a promising team enjoying a strong start.

3. San Francisco 49ers: 67.27

6-1 | Previous: 1 | DEPI: 1 (+7.17)

San Francisco didn't play this week and still managed to lose the top spot.

The Efficiency Index continuously reassesses opponent strength and league-wide performance. Jacksonville and Chicago both improved substantially while San Francisco's existing results were revalued slightly downward.

The result was a 1.30-point decline and a drop from first to third.

San Francisco continues to produce +0.175 offensive EPA per play with a 53.25% offensive success rate. That combination indicates an offense that generates valuable plays without depending entirely on occasional explosive gains.

The Power Index remains particularly impressed. San Francisco leads DEPI at +7.17, a full 1.32 projected points ahead of Chicago.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 64.17

3-5 | Previous: 6 | DEPI: 9 (+2.69)

At some point, Tampa Bay's record will catch up with its performance.

The Buccaneers are 3-5 and now rank fourth in the NFL in Efficiency. They have allowed just 13 points across their last two games, following a dominant win over Carolina with Sunday's 16-0 shutout of Atlanta.

The defense was extraordinary against the Falcons, holding them to -0.529 EPA per play.

Tampa Bay also leaned heavily on Bucky Irving, who rushed for 170 yards on 27 carries. Baker Mayfield attempted just three passes without a completion in monsoon weather.

That is not a conventional formula for sustained offensive success, and the underlying numbers reflect it. Tampa Bay generated -0.167 offensive EPA per play Sunday, while its season offensive average remains at -0.092.

The defense, however, has been excellent. Tampa Bay is allowing -0.156 defensive EPA per play this season. DEPI is somewhat less enthusiastic than the Efficiency Index, ranking the Buccaneers ninth at +2.69. The defensive contribution of +2.73 and special teams contribution of +1.05 are doing considerable work to overcome a -1.73 offensive rating.

The Bucs are not suddenly a complete team, but they have become a difficult opponent, particularly for teams that struggle to sustain drives against quality defenses.

Sunday night's trip to Chicago will tell us quite a bit about whether this defensive improvement is enough to make Tampa Bay dangerous against the league's best.

5. Buffalo Bills: 61.22

6-1 | Previous: 10 | DEPI: 4 (+5.56)

Buffalo's 36-10 victory over the Ravens moved the Bills five places in Efficiency, the biggest jump among teams entering the top five. They may be overrated by the systems a little bit considering the circumstances.

Their defense was the primary driver, but it's getting a little more credit than it deserves considering Lamar Jackson lasted one play and emergency QB Joey Fagnano took the majority of the Ravens snaps.

Buffalo held Baltimore to -0.427 EPA per play, an outstanding single-game performance.

The Bills' special teams also contributed substantially to the improvement. They deserve credit for controlling the game, but shutting down that collection of quarterbacks is not the same thing as shutting down a healthy Lamar Jackson.

For that reason, DEPI includes a published 0.50-point downward editorial adjustment to Buffalo's defensive projection. Without that review, the Bills would rate +6.06. Their published rating is +5.56, fourth in the league.

Importantly, the Efficiency Index does not include that editorial adjustment. It measures the performance that actually occurred.

Buffalo's broader concern remains its defense, which is still allowing +0.077 EPA per play for the season despite Sunday's excellent result.

The Bills have one of the NFL's most productive offenses at +0.184 EPA per play. If Sunday's defensive improvement proves repeatable against healthy starting quarterbacks, their championship outlook becomes considerably stronger.

6. Los Angeles Rams: 60.95

4-4 | Previous: 11 | DEPI: 3 (+5.70)

The Rams are beginning to justify the confidence our Power Index has maintained in them.

The Rams climbed five places after beating the Chargers 24-9, entering the Efficiency top 10 for the first time this week. The defense was particularly impressive, holding the Chargers to -0.452 EPA per play. The Rams now allow -0.107 defensive EPA per play for the season.

Their adjusted defense and special teams supplied most of the week's improvement.

At 4-4, Los Angeles still has plenty of work to do in the standings. But DEPI has consistently been more optimistic about the Rams than their record or early-season Efficiency ranking suggested.

That projection now stands third at +5.70, supported by a +4.23 offensive contribution and +2.26 defense.

The Rams gained 1.06 DEPI points this week.

There is still a significant difference between projecting a team's potential and seeing it consistently produce at that level. But recent results are beginning to close that gap.

For weeks, DEPI has been insisting the Rams are better than they look.

They are finally starting to play like it.

7. Cincinnati Bengals: 60.65

5-2 | Previous: 5 | DEPI: 7 (+3.85)

Cincinnati scored 43 points, won an overtime game and dropped two places.

That might initially seem unreasonable.

Then consider the opponent scored 36.

The Bengals' offense remained productive against Tennessee, generating +0.164 EPA per play.

The defense was considerably less convincing, allowing +0.131.

Cincinnati's adjusted defensive decline outweighed the improvements on offense and special teams, producing a 2.03-point Efficiency decrease despite the victory.

The Bengals remain dangerous because their offensive foundation is strong. They average +0.118 offensive EPA per play for the season with a success rate above 50%.

But the defensive inconsistency is becoming difficult to ignore.

We saw what Cincinnati's offense could accomplish when it exploded for 35 second-half points against the Ravens in Week 7. Sunday demonstrated that even an excellent offensive performance can remain a tight game when the defense cannot consistently stop the opponent.

The Bengals remain seventh in DEPI at +3.85.

They have enough offensive talent to threaten almost anyone. Whether their defense can support that offense against better competition remains a significant question.

8. Detroit Lions: 60.02

5-2 | Previous: 9 | DEPI: 6 (+4.15)

Detroit handed Minnesota its first loss with a 19-15 victory that was more impressive than the final score might suggest.

The Lions' adjusted offensive rating improved despite generating slightly negative raw offensive EPA against one of the NFL's strongest defenses.

That is exactly why opponent adjustment matters. An ordinary offensive performance against an exceptional defense can tell us more than a dominant performance against a terrible one.

Detroit continues to produce +0.136 offensive EPA per play for the season, giving it a strong foundation. The defense is considerably less reassuring, allowing +0.113 EPA per play.

DEPI reflects that imbalance. Detroit ranks sixth at +4.15, driven by a +3.95 offensive contribution that offsets a -0.92 defensive rating.

The Lions deserve credit for beating a previously undefeated divisional opponent.

But their path to becoming a serious championship contender probably involves getting more consistent defensive performances rather than asking the offense to compensate every week.

9. Seattle Seahawks: 59.59

4-4 | Previous: 3 | DEPI: 12 (+1.17)

Seattle suffered the week's biggest Efficiency decline.

Monday night's loss to Chicago cost the Seahawks 5.80 index points and six ranking places, dropping them from third to ninth. The most concerning part was that both sides of the ball deteriorated in the adjusted numbers, with the defensive decline having the larger impact.

Seattle's defense remains good. It is allowing -0.089 EPA per play for the season. But the offense continues to be a serious limitation. The Seahawks average -0.058 offensive EPA per play, and DEPI assigns their offense a -1.70-point contribution.

That is a substantial problem for a team expected to compete with the NFC's best.

Seattle still has enough defensive talent to frustrate quality opponents, and the Power Index gives its defense a +2.10 contribution. The question is whether that unit can keep carrying an offense that struggles to consistently generate value.

Chicago demonstrated the danger.

When an opponent can move the ball against Seattle's defense, the Seahawks don't have enough offensive reliability to consistently answer.

One loss doesn't erase their strengths. It does make their limitations considerably harder to ignore.

10. Kansas City Chiefs: 58.36

5-2 | Previous: 7 | DEPI: 11 (+1.34)

Kansas City rounds out the top 10 after losing 28-24 in Denver.

Interestingly, the Chiefs' adjusted offensive performance improved, but declines on defense and especially special teams pulled their overall rating down 1.75 points.

Their season offense remains productive at +0.128 EPA per play, while the defense is allowing - 0.037. Those are respectable numbers. They just don't describe the dominant team many still expect Kansas City to be.

DEPI is even more skeptical, ranking the Chiefs 11th at +1.34. That rating actually increased slightly this week despite the loss, which demonstrates another important distinction between ranking movement and projected strength.

A team can lose and still improve part of its underlying forecast.

Kansas City remains one of the most interesting disagreements between our model and the betting market.

And Week 9 will provide another example.

Biggest Risers: Buffalo, the Rams and a Green Bay Rebound

Buffalo and the Rams shared the biggest positive ranking movement this week, each gaining five places.

The Bills jumped from 10th to fifth, while the Rams moved from 11th to sixth.

Dallas was another notable riser, climbing four places from 24th to 20th despite losing 33-30 in overtime to Arizona. That is an unusual result until you examine the components. The Cowboys improved defensively and on special teams, even as their offensive performance declined.

The Efficiency Index doesn't award points for winning or subtract them for losing. It evaluates the underlying plays within their opponent and game context.

Green Bay provides another interesting example.

The Packers gained only two ranking places, from 25th to 23rd, but their 27-19 victory over Carolina produced the largest numerical Efficiency improvement in the league at +5.39 points.

Both their adjusted offense and defense improved. Green Bay simply began the week far enough down the rankings that a sizable increase translated into a relatively modest movement in position.

The most important development might be the Rams. Buffalo's outstanding offense was already well established, while Chicago has increasingly demonstrated its quality. Los Angeles was the team whose current-season performance most clearly lagged behind its Power Index projection.

That gap is narrowing.

Biggest Fallers: Seattle and Cleveland Take the Biggest Hits

Seattle's six-place decline was matched by Cleveland, which fell from 19th to 25th after losing 27-6 in Pittsburgh.

The Steelers sacked Cleveland eight times, and the Browns lost 4.42 Efficiency points.

Minnesota also exited the top 10, dropping from eighth to 12th following its first loss of the season. The Vikings' 3.49-point decline opened the door for the Rams to enter the top 10.

Kansas City lost three places, while the Ravens fell two spots from 14th to 16th.

Baltimore's ranking movement understates the size of its performance decline. The Ravens lost 4.91 index points, the second-largest decrease among these notable fallers.

San Francisco also dropped two places, but its bye makes that a different situation. The 49ers lost ranking positions through the re-evaluation of existing games and improvement elsewhere, not because of a poor Week 8 performance.

Where DEPI Disagrees With the Week 9 Betting Market

One of the most useful applications of the Power Index is comparing our projected scoring margins with the actual betting market.

DEPI estimates a team's relative strength in points, then applies a home-field adjustment of approximately 1.54 points. Neutral-site games receive no home-field advantage.

That produces a projected margin we can compare with sportsbook spreads.

The important qualification is that a disagreement between the model and market is not automatically a betting opportunity. Quarterback assumptions, injuries, individual matchups and other factors can explain differences that the underlying model doesn't fully capture.

Here are the seven largest discrepancies for Week 9.

Market snapshot: November 3, 2026, 1:50 p.m. EST. Differences use unrounded model projections. Lines can change, and the figures below are not a list of recommended wagers.

Matchup DEPI Projection Market Spread Difference

Dallas at Indianapolis DAL -0.5 DAL -6.0 5.53 toward IND

Jets at Kansas City KC -4.0 KC -9.5 5.47 toward NYJ

Arizona at Seattle SEA -5.8 SEA -10.5 4.73 toward ARI

Dallas at Indianapolis: Is the market overreacting to the Colts?

The largest disagreement on the board involves Dallas and Indianapolis.

The market favors the Cowboys by six points on the road. DEPI makes Dallas only a 0.5-point favorite.

That creates a 5.53-point gap.

The explanation begins with Dallas's balance, or lack thereof. The Cowboys' projected offense contributes +2.37 points, but their defense is rated -2.44. That effectively cancels out much of their offensive strength.

Indianapolis is rated -1.56 overall. Dallas is +0.45.

Once home-field advantage is included, the model sees something close to an even matchup.

There is, however, an enormous personnel caveat.

Indianapolis traded Quenton Nelson to Seattle and DeForest Buckner to San Francisco on October 27. Those are significant losses that the model doesn't directly account for through individual non-quarterback player adjustments.

The market may be incorporating the effect of those departures more aggressively than DEPI.

That would be a perfectly reasonable explanation for at least part of the discrepancy.

The model sees the Colts as more competitive than the spread suggests. Whether that reflects a genuine opportunity or an incomplete evaluation of their depleted roster is another question.

Jets at Kansas City: The model is skeptical of the Chiefs.

The market has Kansas City favored by 9.5 points at home against the Jets.

DEPI projects a margin of just four points.

That is another difference of nearly five and a half points. Kansas City's current Power Index rating is only +1.34, while the Jets sit at -1.16. Those are not ratings for two teams separated by several tiers of quality.

The Chiefs' offense contributes +1.62 projected points, but their defense is approximately average and special teams contribute -0.73. The Jets aren't particularly good either. Their offense and defense both grade below average.

But the model sees Kansas City as a modestly better team, not one that should routinely be favored by nearly ten points. The public perception of the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes and their established ceiling may reasonably exceed what the current model captures.

Still, it is worth monitoring whether Kansas City's market prices continue to reflect a more dominant team than its recent underlying performances justify.

Arizona at Seattle: Another Seahawks offensive problem.

Seattle is favored by 10.5 points against Arizona.

DEPI makes the Seahawks approximately 5.8-point favorites.

The difference comes primarily from Seattle's offensive limitations. The Seahawks have a strong defense, but their projected offensive contribution remains -1.70 points. That makes it difficult for the model to project large winning margins, even against weaker opponents.

Arizona is rated -3.06, compared with Seattle's +1.17. The calculation already assumes Gardner Minshew will start for the Cardinals, so this isn't simply a case of the model overlooking a quarterback change.

The market sees Seattle as a significantly stronger favorite.

DEPI sees a team whose defense is good enough to win comfortably, but whose offense may struggle to create the separation required to justify laying double digits.

Monday's performance against Chicago certainly didn't make that offensive concern disappear.

Week 9 Matchup to Watch: Tampa Bay at Chicago

Sunday, November 8 | 8:20 p.m. EST | Soldier Field

There are several interesting games on the Week 9 schedule, including Buffalo visiting Minnesota in a meeting of two 6-1 teams.

But according to the combined strength of our two rankings, Tampa Bay at Chicago is the best matchup of the week.

The Bears rank second in both Efficiency and DEPI. Tampa Bay ranks fourth in Efficiency and ninth in DEPI.

No other Week 9 matchup features teams with better combined rankings across both models.

The records might suggest otherwise.

Chicago is 6-2 and playing some of its best football. Tampa Bay is 3-5 and still trying to recover from a disastrous opening stretch.

But the Buccaneers' recent defensive performances make this far more interesting than the standings suggest.

Tampa Bay has allowed just 13 points in two weeks. Its season defensive EPA per play is - 0.156, an excellent figure.

Chicago, meanwhile, enters the game after demonstrating it can move the football against one of the NFL's strongest defenses.

That creates the central matchup.

Can Tampa Bay's defense slow down a Bears offense that is increasingly looking like one of the league's best?

Chicago's projected offensive DEPI contribution is +4.25 points, compared with Tampa Bay's +2.73 defensive contribution.

The Bears have been able to distribute the football, create difficult coverage assignments and generate productive offense without depending entirely on Caleb Williams making spectacular individual plays.

Tampa Bay's challenge will be preventing that variety from stretching its defense beyond what it can comfortably handle.

The other side of the football is considerably less encouraging for the Buccaneers.

Their offense carries a -1.73 projected contribution. Chicago's defense is only modestly above average in DEPI at +0.40, but Tampa Bay has struggled to consistently sustain drives even against less imposing opponents.

If the Bucs cannot move the football, their defense may spend far too much of the evening trying to contain Williams and the Bears.

DEPI favors Chicago by approximately 4.7 points. The market has the Bears favored by six.

That is only a 1.31-point disagreement, far smaller than the gaps in several other Week 9 games.

But it may be the most revealing matchup on the schedule.

A convincing Chicago victory would further establish the Bears as one of the league's strongest teams. A competitive Tampa Bay performance would reinforce the argument that its record badly understates its current quality.

And if the Buccaneers can win in Chicago, their place near the top of the Efficiency rankings will become considerably more difficult to dismiss.

Tuesday November 3, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4454

does this cloud the lamar decision?

No matter what happens for the rest of the season*, the discussion about Lamar Jackson's future in Baltimore is going to hinge on how much faith the front office has that the QB, now entering his 30's, still has a lot of tread left on his tires.

I'm going to stop short of calling Lamar "injury prone". He's a quarterback. He moves around, arguably, more than any guy on the field. Injuries are bound to happen, particularly when you might not even see the guy who is about to pounce on you.

But it's fair to point out he's picked up his fair share of injuries over the last five years. He's never really had a major one, like an ACL or achilles tear, but he's missed half-seasons here and there with various knocks.

(*I put an asterisk next to the opening few words above -- No what happens for the rest of the season* -- to indicate the only way the Ravens aren't having this critical discussion about Lamar's future is he returns in December and engineers a late season rebound that lands the Ravens in the post-season and then they somehow, improbably, reach the Super Bowl.)

If that* happens, somehow, beyond imagination, then give Lamar whatever he wants, I guess.

But for the purposes of this particular entry, we're going to presuppose we've seen the last of Lamar for the 2026 season. We're going to assume, again, barring a miracle, that whomever it is that's the QB of record starting this Thursday will not post a winning record by the time the Ravens hit the home stretch in early December.

That said, let's be realistic about something: The November schedule for the Ravens is really not that difficult.

I mean, sure, the Ravens might stink, especially without Lamar. But you don't think they can't beat the Chargers (home), Panthers (away) Texans (away) and Tampa Bay (home) after, we assume, they lose to Jacksonville this Thursday?

I don't think the Ravens are going 5-0 in those five games. And I doubt they're even going to go 4-1 in these next five. But they might cobble together a win over the Chargers, Panthers and Buccaneers. Right? And, yes, I also realize they might completely flatline and go 1-4.

I'm just trying to cover every possible angle over the next five weeks before we delve headfirst into the Lamar saga.

1. The Ravens somehow, against all odds, "hold serve" over the next five weeks and Lamar returns on December 20 in Pittsburgh with Baltimore at 7-6. Those last five games decide the season. And with Lamar back, who knows?

2. The Ravens do what we pretty much assume they're going to do and they're 5-8 at that 13-game mark and Lamar "might" by ready to return but why push it at that point?

3. Lamar doesn't return at all and the season is done. Who knows what they might finish? 5-12, 6-11, 7-10?

At some point, the Ravens will have to face the inevitable question: "When do we throw in the towel?"

Lots of people on Twitter think "now!" is the answer to that question, but I'm not a subscriber to that one. I totally understand you can't plan for injuries, but the Bengals are one wrong fall on Joe Burrow's knee from being a bottom feeder. So, too, are the Steelers. If Aaron Rodgers gets hurt, they're cooked.

So, at least for November, I'm saying, the Ravens have to try.

And, by "try", I mean, they have to find a decent quarterback (I'm pretty sure it's not Fagnano, but we're going to find out a little bit about him this Thursday night) in Lamar's absence. I don't see Huntley being able to play and, frankly, I've seen enough of him to know we should try to do better, if we can.

Bring in a veteran quarterback of some value/quality and see if he can manage the offense well enough to win a few games over the next month.

Giving up now isn't really the answer. Giving up might eventually be the right move. But not yet.

I don't think it's fair to Jesse Minter eight games into the season to walk into his office and say, "We're blowing this thing up. Enjoy 5-12."

I'm not sure it's fair to tell Derrick Henry, "You're going to have to run for your life for the last two months of the season because these guys we've put on the offensive line couldn't block the Archbishop Spalding defensive line."

It's also not totally fair to the fans, either, to just throw in the towel in the first week of November.

Anyway, "tanking" the season might be appropriate after Thanksgiving. But, for now, at 4-4, I think you have to see what you can piece together. If it goes south, it goes south. But you can't give up right now.

And now, we get to Lamar.

This one became very dicey on Sunday afternoon just after 1 pm.

Is it fair that Lamar's future in Baltimore might have been impacted and, ultimately, changed because of one injury?

I don't know that it's fair. But it is what it is.

The Ravens are in a tight spot with Jackson in 2027 and beyond as it relates to the salary cap.

Let's make one thing clear about that situation: The Ravens are entirely to blame for kicking the can down the road and letting this situation fester. They knew what they were potentially going to have to deal with this a few years ago when they gave Lamar that new contract.

Now, some people can blame Lamar and throw in the old "it takes two to make a deal" and that's true, too. But the player has the leverage when he's wanted and valued. Lamar had the leverage back in April of 2023 when he signed his 5-year extension. He made the best deal he could and the team then had to figure out how to work it all in under the salary cap.

The Ravens could have "punted" on Lamar in 2023, remember. No one held a gun to their head and forced them to sign Lamar. So, they knew this day was coming in 2027 and now they have to figure out a solution.

And that solution, under normal circumstances, would be to just continue to once again kick the can down the road and delay the inevitable. They'd sign Lamar to a new 3-year deal, reconfiguring his 2027 and 2028 monies and he'd become the highest paid player in football and there would be some kind of insane $100 million ding on their salary cap in 2030 or 2031 and we'd do this all over again in a few years.

Those "normal circumstances" ended, I think, on Sunday in Buffalo.

It's practically impossible for the Ravens to ignore Lamar's injury history. They can ignore if they so choose, but doing that would be a mistake, I think.

The Ravens are faced with the biggest on-field decision of the last 15 years. Is Lamar going to be worth the $70 million or so that you have to pay him in 2027, 2028, etc?

If you looked into a crystal ball and you saw that Lamar played 51 regular season games over the next 3 years, I'm betting he'd be worth $210 million or more in his pocket. But how can you be sure of that without seeing the crystal ball?

We're not even taking into account the salary cap part, yet. The Ravens' money nerds will figure out a suitable two or three year window to make the cap work. It still won't be pretty, of course, but they'll configure something that doesn't crush them.

But even if Lamar "only" eats up, say, $50 million on the cap next year, is that a risk worth taking given his injury history? You have to pay him $70 million, probably. And that's $70 million you can't sprinkle elsewhere. And then you have to allocate $50 million to the (expected) $325 million salary cap.

Two years ago, if you would have suggested the Ravens should consider "life without Lamar", I would have told you that you were crazy.

One year ago, I would have told you the same thing.

Heck, a month ago, I would have told you to kick rocks.

Everything changed with the ankle sprain and the broken thumb. Another lost season.

In the prime of his career, with what we thought was a championship-contending-roster, Lamar is once again not available to help the Ravens chase their dream.

Just since 2021 alone, Jackson has missed "significant" time in four campaigns.

Four games in December of '21 after an ankle sprain on December 12 vs. Cleveland.

Six games in December/January of '22 after a knee sprain forced him to miss the final stretch of the regular season and the wild card playoff game.

Three games early in '25 (hamstring) and another one at the end of the season (back).

And then...2026.

If the Ravens aren't pausing to think this one through, they're not doing themselves a fair service.

Oh, and let's throw this one in. Some of this might be different if Lamar's salary figures were leveling off or going down a little bit.

If he had reached the peak of his earnings-potential in the league and his salary for 2027 and beyond was going to be in the $30 million range, that's one thing.

But Jackson's star is somehow still on the rise despite having accomplished nothing, really, of "team importance" in Baltimore.

He has two MVP awards, which is why makes $50 million (plus) a year. But he hasn't won anything else.

So, with another massive contract looming and Lamar missing more games in 2026, the Ravens are facing a delicate scenario.

The time has come to fully evaluate what "LAL" looks like.

Life after Lamar.

I'm not here jumping up and down like some folks do in town on a daily basis and calling the Ravens (and Orioles) "idiots" and "utter morons" or anything even close to that. I'm not here demanding they get rid of Lamar Jackson.

When healthy, he's a top 5 player in the entire league.

When. healthy.

But I am here to say the Ravens have to do their due diligence at this point and figure out if perhaps they're better off with a fresh start at the most important position in all of sports.

It's weird to even write that.

You have Lamar Jackson. And you're not happy?

It's hard to be happy if he can't play.

And it's also hard to be happy if you have to dedicate so much of your resources to him that you can't adequately develop a championship roster.

I don't know about that one because I'm not a capologist. But dedicating $50 million (or more) to one guy, salary cap wise, is certainly going to present a challenge in terms of configuring the other 50-some players into a $327 million number.

Oh, and we've seen what happens when the Ravens pour the bulk of their money into the defensive side of the ball and leave Lamar out there running for his life 17 times a year. Sure, they've used draft capital on offensive linemen in the "Lamar era", but they lost the best one they've drafted (Linderbaum) because they didn't want to pay him what the Raiders paid him.

In hindsight, that was a mistake. It's easy to say, "Linderbaum wasn't staying in Baltimore once he got that offer from the Raiders", but why not extend him before that opportunity came along?

All of that, though, is back-burner stuff at this point. One big question is, "Extend Lamar and pay him as the highest paid player in football?"

One other big question: "Or figure out a trade with Miami, Tampa Bay or some other squad that will take him?"

A year ago, I would have laughed at you and the notion of trading him.

I'm not laughing now.

If I'm the Ravens, I'm forced to consider it.

I hate that I have to do it. It's like breaking up with the girl you dated all throughout college and then shared your first apartment together while the two of you labored through grad school.

Eventually, you face the inevitable. "It" just ain't happening any longer.

You hate to do it, but it's the only workable solution that makes sense for at least one of you.

On that note, I think it's fair to point out, from Lamar's standpoint, that he's not really "married" to Baltimore. He plays here because the Ravens have forked over hundreds of millions of dollars to him and they own his playing rights while doing that.

I'm not trying to stir the pot when I say this, because 90% of the athletes, maybe more like 95%, don't really "marry" the city they play in. They're just "there", working, making a living, and planning for their future.

When Lamar Jackson is finished playing football, he's not going to live year-round (or at all) in Owings Mills, Maryland.

So, I bring that up to serve as a reminder that Lamar is employed as a football player. He plays football where his contract tells him to play. If you think it would break Lamar's heart to get traded, you're kidding.

He'd pack up his important, personal stuff and be in Miami in three days and the moving truck would be down there in two weeks and he'd be "settled in" before a month came and went.

The only time he'd return to Baltimore would be when the Dolphins, Bucs or whomever it was played against the Ravens.

And, again, I'm not trying to pick on him or say he doesn't "care" about Baltimore. I'm merely saying, Lamar would be open to any kind of deal that paid him what he thinks his value is and what the Players Association advises him to take or not take.

If the Ravens trade him to Miami (with his approval), Lamar would drive the moving truck down I-95.

I know what the big question also is: "If you trade Lamar, who quarterbacks the team?"

I don't know.

But someone would.

The 49'ers found someone after Montana.

The Steelers found someone after Bradshaw.

The Packers found someone after Favre.

For those who say, "Well, look at how the Ravens suck when Huntley is in there", please remember that's Huntley playing with a Ravens roster that's gridlocked in some ways by Lamar's contract and cap situation. Sure, Huntley's a middle of the road guy, but if Lamar wasn't around, the Ravens would hopefully upgrade in that position -- over Huntley, that is.

The Ravens would find a new QB. Would he be as good as Lamar? I have no idea. Lamar's a pretty special talent, after all.

But you have to assume if the Ravens traded Lamar they'd use one of those first-round picks on a quarterback. Their "new Lamar", so to speak.

Maybe they do what the Steelers have done with Aaron Rodgers and bridge the gap with someone like, I don't know, Baker Mayfield or Daniel Jones or some other veteran cast-off who wants to do what Rodgers has done and breathe new life into his career late in the game.

I'm not in any way suggesting that Baker Mayfield or Daniel Jones is better than Lamar Jackson.

I'm simply saying the Ravens might have to bridge a one-year or two-year gap until they get someone "special" again. Ben Roethlisberger retired after the 2022 season and Pittsburgh still hasn't found their next great QB.

The Patriots "think" they've finally replaced Tom Brady with Drake Maye, but we'll see about that one.

So, trading Lamar at the end of the season would certainly be a step back in the present. No doubt about it.

But which of these scenarios sounds more appealing?

Having Lamar for the next three years and getting, on average, 12 games a year from him at $70 million or so per-year, plus salary cap hits in the neighborhood of $50 million or so?

Saving that $70 million a year and $50 million cap hit and finding someone new who doesn't restrict you from putting together a more well rounded roster?

There's one more appealing scenario: Lamar plays 17 games and all the playoff games and the Ravens win the Super Bowl and no matter what the salary and associated costs, he's worth it.

I don't know which scenario is more likely to occur.

But I think I know which one is the better "gamble" of the three at this point.

Four years of injuries, a rising salary and cap hit, and Father Time starting to lurk around the corner...does that add up to Lamar playing in another city in 2027?

It might have to.

Monday November 2, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4453

there's good breaks and bad breaks

I didn't see one second of yesterday's game in Buffalo. Not one.

So I'll defer to Randy Morgan and his coverage of how it all unfolded.

As I wrote here on Sunday morning, I was out of town on a golf trip and could only follow the action on my phone, live.

The text came in around 12:20 pm our time, 1:20 pm here on the East coast.

"Lamar hurt and it's bad."

A minute later, another friend reached out: "I have dealt with a lot of broken thumbs. That's a broken thumb."

The corresponding 36-10 result wasn't surprising. And, to be fair, it could have been much worse, I suppose, as I look at the play-by-play of the rout in Buffalo.

We all know what's coming next. One week we're asking "Why isn't Lamar playing?"

The next we're asking: "Shouldn't Lamar be playing?"

And then, the next week, we're asking: "Should the Ravens just tank the season, trade off as many players as they can, and go from there?"

There is so much to unpack from that question.

I'll give out a few very brief comments about all of it here today, then I'll circle back tomorrow with some additional, perhaps more in-depth thoughts on it all.

Let me start by just saying this, as nice as I can: It's in people's general nature to just give up as soon as distress comes along. "Just tank the season" people are quick to say.

It's not that easy.

And the Ravens are still 4-4. It's not like they're the Chargers and they're 0-7.

The other huge factor is also the one a lot of people don't consider: Who are you going to trade?

The players the Ravens can ship off to other teams are generally guys who aren't going to fetch you much.

Sure, you can move Calais Campbell. What's a 40-year old guy in the mid-December of his career going to get you? Every other team could have had him in the off-season. No one wanted him.

Trenton Simpson or John Simpson? Sure, send them both somewhere. But for what, some Gatorade?

Now, if you want to send Derrick Henry or Marlon Humphrey to new teams at the trade deadline, go ahead and consider that. You want my opinion? Once you trade Henry, you're officially closed for business for the rest of the season. The Ravens aren't likely winning anything of note, anyway, but trading one of your biggest offensive weapons means you've thrown in the towel.

I'd trade Humphrey. But you're not getting much for him. If you get the right team who hasn't paid attention to football for the last couple of years, maybe you can pry a 4th round pick from someone in exchange for #44. But I think you're probably looking at something more in the range of a 5th round or 6th round pick.

We haven't even talked about the merits of doing away with the season. I assume Tyler Huntley is missing a game or two. Maybe more. With a healthy Tyler Huntley, the Ravens have a 40% chance of winning any game (see: Atlanta). If Huntley can't go, that number goes down to about 10%, and I'm saying that not even knowing who the Ravens would employ as their starting QB if Huntley is out for any extended period of time.

The Lamar Jackson thumb injury sparks an entire other line of discussion about him, his contract and his future in Baltimore.

We'll delve into that here tomorrow.

It's a delicate issue because the Ravens have one of the most dynamic players in the entire league on their roster and it might not be prudent to keep him around for the price he's going to cost you moving forward.

This question was lingering in the air before Sunday's thumb injury ended (?) his season. "Pay Lamar? Or let him walk?"

Now, it's even more pressing. "Pay Lamar on the heels of a season where he only played four games and got a year older?"

That one will leave on the back burner and it can simmer here until tomorrow.

The more immediate question is: Who is the QB on Thursday night vs. Jacksonville? Is it Joe Fagnano? Or do the Ravens go out and grab a retread-veteran for the last two months-plus of the season?

And no matter who the QB is for the remainder of the '26 season, should the Ravens just sell off any valuable parts they have and start re-tooling for next season?

This scenario, of course, was the one the Ravens feared the most. With a healthy Lamar Jackson, they can beat anyone on any given Sunday. A healthy Lamar for 17 games would have netted the club another division title and perhaps even a first-round post-season bye.

With Lamar, the Ravens were a Super Bowl contender.

But only because of him.

Without him, they're going nowhere.

We all knew that. We just hoped it wouldn't happen.

It happened.

And now the clean-up begins.

What to do next?

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

first and five: one snap changed everything

Five immediate takeaways from the Ravens' disastrous 36-10 loss to the Buffalo Bills, before any rewatch.

Snakebitten. Cursed. Hexed. Jinxed. Doomed. Condemned.

Pick your favorite descriptor for this Ravens team.

On the day after Halloween it took only one offensive play for Ravens fans to have to face their worst fears. Another lengthy absence for franchise cornerstone Lamar Jackson.

After three weeks of waiting for Lamar Jackson to return from his ankle injury, Lamar injured his throwing thumb on the Ravens first offensive snap when his hand collided with Bills pass rusher Greg Rousseau.

He immediately left the field and never returned. Tyler Huntley replaced him, only to suffer a toe injury in the second quarter.

That left undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano making his NFL debut against one of the AFC's best teams, behind an offensive line that appeared determined to get every quarterback on the roster injured.

The final score was Buffalo 36, Baltimore 10. The Ravens are now 4-4, have lost three consecutive games and face an increasingly uncertain future.

But the score was almost irrelevant by the time Jesse Minter stepped to the podium after the game.

Lamar needs surgery on his right thumb and will be placed on injured reserve. Minter acknowledged that the injury could potentially end his season.

And with that, the Ravens' Super Bowl aspirations may have disappeared as well.

There isn't much point in pretending this was a normal football game worth dissecting through five detailed tactical observations. Once Lamar left, beating Josh Allen and the Bills on the road became an almost impossible assignment. Once Huntley followed him, the afternoon became something closer to a survival exercise.

Here are my five immediate takeaways from an afternoon I would very much like to forget.

1. If Lamar's season is over, so is the Ravens' season

Let's not overcomplicate this.

If Lamar Jackson is done for the season, so are the Ravens' realistic hopes of winning a Super Bowl.

That doesn't mean they'll lose every remaining game. They may be able to steal a few more wins with Huntley or Fagnano at the helm. Or perhaps Eric DeCosta will explore adding another quarterback if Huntley's injury is serious.

The Ravens still have Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers and enough defensive talent to beat some teams.

But there is an enormous difference between scraping together a few more wins and competing for a championship. We already saw that difference during Lamar's three-game absence.

Huntley did some good things, but the offense was fundamentally different.

And the team has other legitimate issues that are exacerbated without Lamar there to put on his Superman cape. The offensive line is atrocious. That may improve if Vega Ioane returns, but it's not just his replacement that has been bad, tackles Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten have not been reliable either.

Declan Doyle has done some impressive work this season, but there is only so much a coordinator can manufacture when his offensive line cannot protect the quarterback and defenses aren't particularly worried about the passing game.

Even with Lamar healthy, the Ravens were showing serious cracks. The offensive line was inconsistent, the defense had repeatedly collapsed after halftime, and the team was finding new ways to squander winnable games.

The Ravens are 4-4, not 1-7. They still have a mathematical path to the playoffs, and the organization certainly isn't going to stop trying to win. But if Lamar can’t return, I suspect we're much more likely to spend December thinking about draft position than January playoff matchups.

The medical prognosis remains the only genuinely important question. Surgery and injured reserve guarantee that Lamar will miss at least four games, but Minter has not ruled out a return later in the season.

Hopefully that possibility remains real.

Because without it, the remaining nine games are going to feel awfully long.

2. Three quarterbacks entered. Nobody escaped unscathed

I don't know how the Ravens managed to get all three quarterbacks beaten up in one game, but the offensive line certainly gave it an impressive effort.

The Bills finished with four sacks and 12 quarterback hits. The Ravens produced just 144 total yards, converted three of 13 third downs and finished with only 10 first downs.

Those are miserable numbers, although it's difficult to evaluate much about the offense when the quarterbacks are being cycled through like disposable batteries.

Roger Rosengarten had fun dressing as a turnstile for Halloween.

On the play that injured Lamar, Rousseau got close enough to disrupt Jackson's throwing motion. Rosengarten acknowledged afterward that he needed to create more space for his quarterback and accepted responsibility for what happened.

It was an unfortunate injury, and I'm not going to suggest Rosengarten could have anticipated exactly how the collision would occur. But his job is to keep the defender away from the quarterback, and on the most consequential offensive snap of Baltimore's season, he wasn't able to do it.

Unfortunately, things didn't improve much from there. Huntley was injured when safety Cole Bishop came completely untouched on a blitz, sacked him and forced a fumble that Buffalo recovered at the Ravens' 20. Whoever was supposed to account for Bishop, the result was another quarterback leaving the game.

Then came Fagnano.

The undrafted rookie was suddenly making his NFL debut against Buffalo, having spent much of the week working on the scout team rather than preparing to run the Ravens' offense.

He actually showed a little something early, completing consecutive passes to Josh Cuevas and Ja'Kobi Lane that moved the Ravens inside the Buffalo 10. Then he was sacked for a nine-yard loss, the drive stalled and Tyler Loop missed the ensuing field goal.

Fagnano finished 10-of-21 for 91 yards, an interception and a lost fumble. He also took enough punishment to leave the afternoon dealing with ankle trouble himself.

It's difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about a rookie quarterback under those circumstances. The offensive line obviously deserves criticism, but the injuries have created a genuinely difficult situation.

Danny Pinter, Jovaughn Gwyn and Ethan Pocic have all suffered season-ending injuries. Vega Ioane missed Sunday's game with a knee injury, forcing yet another change at right guard.

Continuity matters, particularly when defenses are sending linebackers and defensive backs into pressure looks that require immediate communication.

Still, the Ravens cannot use injuries to excuse everything.

Rosengarten and Ronnie Stanley are established starting tackles. This wasn't supposed to be a line that needed its quarterbacks to escape pressure every other snap just to keep the offense functioning.

We have spent much of the season evaluating how Doyle can design around the line's limitations. More quick throws. More motion. Different launch points. Additional protection help.

Greater creativity with Henry.

All of that has value.

But at some point, the five guys responsible for protecting the quarterback have to win their assignments.

And when you go through three quarterbacks in a single afternoon, something has gone terribly wrong.

3. The defense showed some pride. Until it couldn't anymore

After watching Cincinnati score 35 unanswered second-half points against the Ravens last week, I wasn't particularly optimistic when Buffalo took the opening kickoff and marched straight down the field.

The Bills went 60 yards in 10 plays, with Josh Allen eventually scoring from the 1.

Here we go again.

Instead, the defense actually responded pretty well.

Buffalo managed only three field goals over the remainder of the first half, despite repeatedly receiving excellent field position. Two of those possessions began inside Baltimore's 35 following turnovers.

The defense also created two takeaways of its own.

Broderick Washington intercepted Allen after a tipped pass, giving the Ravens possession deep in Buffalo territory. Roquan Smith forced a fumble from D.J. Moore that T.J. Tampa recovered.

Derrick Henry capitalized on the interception with a two-yard touchdown run, bringing the Ravens within three points. Later, the defense forced Buffalo to settle for a field goal after reaching the Baltimore 1, with Kyle Hamilton dropping Allen for a three-yard loss on third-and- goal.

Those were encouraging responses from a group that had been embarrassed by the Bengals seven days earlier. Even after everything that happened to the quarterbacks, the Ravens trailed only 16-7 at halftime. Fagnano then led a field-goal drive to open the third quarter, making it 16- 10.

Somehow, the Ravens were still in the game.

Unfortunately, that was about as good as it got.

Buffalo responded with a touchdown drive featuring a 49-yard completion from Allen to Moore dunking on Marlon Humphrey (don’t worry, I’m sure he’ll talk about it on his podcast). The Bills eventually added two more touchdowns in the fourth quarter as the Ravens' defense increasingly struggled to contain the passing game.

Allen finished with 289 passing yards and two touchdowns, while Buffalo accumulated 426 total yards and held the football for more than 37 minutes.

The Bills also converted four of five fourth-down attempts, repeatedly extending possessions that Baltimore desperately needed to end.

So I'm not going to pretend this was a great defensive performance.

But context matters.

The Ravens offense generated almost nothing for most of the afternoon. The defense was repeatedly sent back onto the field, often with poor field position, and asked to contain one of the NFL's best quarterbacks without much hope of receiving meaningful offensive support.

Eventually Buffalo wore them down.

There are still legitimate concerns about Minter's defense, especially the recurring inability to respond when opponents begin finding favorable matchups after halftime. Some of Sunday's problems were familiar, even if the circumstances were extraordinary.

But for much of the first half and into the third quarter, the defense gave the Ravens a chance to steal a game they had little business winning.

That's about all we could reasonably ask.

4. Tyler Loop's probation has been reinstated

Remember a few weeks ago when Tyler Loop was becoming one of the best stories of the Ravens' season?

He made a 57-yard field goal against Indianapolis. He won the Dallas game with a 56-yarder as time expired. Then he casually drilled a 64-yard kick against Tennessee, setting a new M&T Bank Stadium record.

Apparently we should have been asking him to kick from 60 yards every time.

Loop missed a 34-yard field goal Sunday that would have cut Buffalo's lead to three points in the second quarter.

Thirty-four yards.

The Ravens weren't asking him to win a game from midfield in a driving rainstorm. They were asking him to make a routine kick from a distance that should be almost automatic for an NFL kicker.

And it wasn't his only special-teams mistake of the afternoon. Loop sent the opening kickoff out of bounds, giving Buffalo the football at its own 40. The Bills promptly marched downfield for their opening touchdown.

Loop did make a 26-yard field goal in the third quarter, but that hardly erases the earlier miss. Through eight games, Loop has made 13 of 17 field-goal attempts, a 76.5% success rate.

He has already missed four kicks after missing only four throughout his entire rookie season.

Yes, he has tremendous leg strength. Those kicks from 56, 57 and 64 yards were genuinely impressive, and having that kind of range changes what a coach can attempt near midfield.

But none of it matters if the Ravens can't consistently trust him from 34 yards.

This is particularly frustrating because the Ravens already went through this uncertainty last season, culminating in the missed 44-yarder against Pittsburgh that cost them the division title and a playoff berth. We thought the early-season heroics might finally have put that behind us.

Now Loop has missed field goals in two of the past three games, and the Ravens have already signed Jake Moody to the practice squad. At some point, the organization needs to decide how much inconsistency it is willing to tolerate in exchange for exceptional range.

Loop clearly possesses enough talent to be an NFL kicker. The question is whether he can reliably convert ordinary opportunities rather than alternating between spectacular highlights and infuriating misses.

If he cannot, the Ravens have to find someone who can.

5. Five things to do with your Sundays now that football season is over

Assuming the worst about Lamar's injury, we may suddenly find ourselves with an enormous amount of free time on Sunday afternoons.

For the better part of two decades, the Ravens have given us a reason to spend three hours every weekend watching football, occasionally enjoying ourselves and frequently questioning our life choices.

With championship contention potentially off the table, perhaps it's time to explore other interests.

Here are five suggestions.

1. Go for a hike.

It's November. The leaves are changing, the weather is still reasonably pleasant and Maryland has plenty of beautiful trails worth exploring.

You can get some fresh air, enjoy nature and spend three hours outside without watching another offensive lineman escort a defender directly into his quarterback.

Honestly, that sounds pretty appealing.

2. Go see a movie.

Three hours in a comfortable theater sounds like a much better use of a Sunday afternoon than watching the Ravens attempt to gain four yards on third-and-11.

At least in most movies, the protagonist eventually figures out how to overcome the obstacles in front of him.

And if you pick a comedy, there's a reasonable chance you'll laugh intentionally.

3. Spend more time with your family.

This one might require some adjustment.

Apparently there are people living in our homes who have interests that extend beyond NFL football. They occasionally enjoy conversations, shared meals and activities that don't involve screaming at a television.

Who knew?

You could take the family somewhere nice, plan an afternoon together or simply enjoy having a Sunday when your mood isn't determined by the performance of 53 men in purple uniforms. They might appreciate it.

4. Get some golf in before the weather turns.

There are probably a few decent golf weekends remaining before winter arrives.

Why spend three hours watching the Ravens miss tackles, drop passes and commit false starts when you could spend four hours missing fairways, three-putting and wondering why you continue paying money to humiliate yourself?

Actually, now that I think about it, golf might not be much of an improvement.

Still, at least when you hit one into the woods, nobody ends up needing thumb surgery.

5. Start watching soccer.

European soccer offers an almost endless supply of weekend entertainment.

I would suggest starting with Barcelona. They have an incredibly fun team right now with several generational talents and you’re guaranteed to see goals in any Barcelona game.

If you prefer the Premier League, maybe Liverpool is a good option. High pressing, energetic, loads of history, without the stench of nation-state oil money. Particularly if you enjoy emotionally exhausting games that swing wildly between brilliance and catastrophe.

You can also watch multiple games throughout the morning and afternoon, and most are finished in less than two hours.

No endless commercial breaks. No replay reviews lasting seven minutes. No punting on fourth- and-1.

It's worth considering.

So, what now?

Of course, all of this depends upon Lamar's medical prognosis.

Maybe the surgery goes well, he recovers faster than expected and the Ravens manage to hang around long enough for him to return and make another improbable run. Hey, at least if he comes back his ankle should be fully recovered.

I certainly hope so.

But it's becoming increasingly difficult to imagine this season ending anywhere close to where we hoped it would when the Ravens opened the year with a 41-23 victory over Indianapolis.

And somehow, there's still another game to play in four days.

The Ravens host Jacksonville on Thursday night, presumably with somebody available to play quarterback. After that comes a longer break before the schedule resumes.

Perhaps that's when I'll finally get around to that hike.

Who am I kidding?

I'll probably still watch every game.

Unfortunately, being a Ravens fan has never been an entirely rational activity.

	#DMD GAME DAY Week 8 Sunday — November 1, 2026 Issue #4452
	Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills 1:00 PM EDT Highmark Stadium Buffalo, NY Spread: Bills (-3.5)

which ravens defense makes the trip to buffalo?

I almost never pine for a regular season football game. I mean, if you miss it, just record it and watch it later, right?

And there are probably some circumstances where that little trick could work. I remember once playing in a golf tournament on Father's Day and not being able to watch the bulk of the final round of the U.S. Open, so I just recorded it all and then did my best not to overhear any discussion of it as I finished my round and headed for the parking lot.

When I got home at 5:30, I watched it as if it were unfolding live.

I don't think you have much chance of doing that in 2026, though.

Too many social media posts, too many friends texting "Fire the coach!" midway through the game and, in general, just too much easy access to the game as it unfolds, even if you can't watch it live.

Heck, you don't even have to be in front of a TV today and you can still "watch" the game, which, I'm guessing, is what's probably going to happen with me and the group I'm with on an out-of-state golf trip.

I wrote above I almost never pine for a regular season football game. But I'm yearning for this one in Buffalo today. I'm thrilled to be where I am today, getting ready to play golf as you read this, but I would love to sit in front of a TV and watch this game against the Bills.

Alas, friendship and FCA takes center stage for me today and that's also good. So I'll "watch" the game as we play golf via Twitter and other social media outlets.

As for the game itself, our intrepid Ravens analyst, Randy Morgan, breaks it all down for you below.

He'll tell you the good, bad and (hopefully not so) ugly of the Ravens and their chances against the Bills today.

We all know what the main narrative is, of course. Lamar returns. And with that, the Ravens chances of winning also improve dramatically.

There's been quite a bit of contention in Bawlmer this week and even here at #DMD about Lamar and his three-week absence due to what was apparently a high ankle sprain. Could he have played? Should he have played? If he would have played, would he be worse today because of it? And, of course, the biggest question of all: What would the Ravens record be if Lamar would have played against Atlanta, Cleveland and Cincinnati?

None of that really matters, of course. The games are done, the results are in and the Ravens are 4-3 heading into today's game with the 5-1 Bills.

But will Lamar's return today give the Ravens a legitimate chance to beat the Bills?

I think we all agree it will. And expect that it will.

That said, there's another element of the game worth watching and we all know what that is, too. It's the Baltimore defensive front and, in tow, the secondary as well.

Bills running back James Cook averages 5.4 yards per-carry. He also gets into the end zone, on average, once per-game.

Can the Ravens slow him down?

And can they stop, or at least limit, the production of quarterback Josh Allen? Or will he feast on the maligned Baltimore secondary all afternoon?

Lamar is important, yes.

But the Baltimore defensive performance is just as critical, if not a tick more, I'm thinking.

I have no real "feel" for how this one's going to go. I would not be at all surprised to see the Ravens win.

But if you pushed me to make a wager one way or the other, I'm going with the Bills 34-24.

I hope I'm wrong, but I see Buffalo's offense pushing the Baltimore defense around throughout the second half, breaking open a 14-14 halftime tie and dropping the Ravens to 4-4.

---

show me the money, week #6

Teddy Knowsball made #DMD history last week by going 0-5. We were thinking about giving him his outright release this week, but then we remembered we don't have anyone to take his place here.

I went 4-1 a week ago to finally sneak above .500. Molly went 3-2. We both hit our "Best Bet" wager as well.

I'm picking the games this week. Let's see if I can make up more ground on Molly.

Year to Date

1. Molly - 23-12 (4-3 Best Bet)

2. DF -- 18-17 (5-2 Best Bet)

3. Teddy Knowsball -- 11-24 (1-6 Best Bet)

Today's games:

Arizona at Dallas (+7)

DF -- I think I read somewhere that Arizona is 9-1 against Dallas over the last 15 years or something like that. For whatever weird reason, the Cowboys don't match up well with the Cardinals. I'm going to guess that had something to do with Kyler Murray. And I'm also guessing that the Cardinals are expected to play well today, which means they won't. Pick: Cowboys (-7)

Teddy -- Pick: Cardinals (+7)

Molly -- Pick: Cardinals (+7) (Best Bet of the Week)

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-2.5)

DF -- Wait, it's November 1 and a Browns-Steelers clash is for first place in the AFC North? WTH? This one today will tell us if the Browns are legit. I'm assuming they're not. Pick: Steelers (-3.5)

Teddy -- Pick: Steelers (-3.5) (Best Bet of the Week)

Molly -- Pick: Browns (+3.5)

Minnesota at Detroit (-3)

DF: Not that anyone expects Minnesota to threaten an undefeated season, but this is one of the games they have to work their way around if they want to stay unblemished. Likewise, for Detroit, if they harbor any thoughts of winning the NFC North, this one is huge for them today. Pick: Lions (-3)

Teddy -- Pick: Vikings (+3)

Molly -- Pick: Lions (-3)

L.A. Chargers at L.A. Rams (-6.5)

DF -- The "all L.A." game. The Chargers don't have a win yet and the Rams are in dire need of win after losing to the freakin' Cardinals. Big game for both teams. Well, maybe not for the Chargers. Pick: Chargers (+6.5) (Best Bet of the Week)

Teddy -- Pick: Chargers (+6.5)

Molly -- Pick: Rams (-6.5)

Baltimore at Buffalo (-3.5)

DF -- I'm certainly not confident of anything happening in this game. The Ravens could play "up" and win or get picked apart by Josh Allen and get roasted. Which Ravens team shows up? That's the question. Pick: Bills (-3.5)

Teddy -- Pick: Ravens (+3.5)

Molly -- Pick: Bills (-3.5)

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

ravens vs. bills: lamar returns, but...

Ravens-Bills Week 8 Preview: Lamar Jackson's anticipated return, the challenge of containing Josh Allen, a favorable matchup for Zay Flowers and two running backs who could decide the game.

Get ready for the game with the Ravens Dashboard: https://dualeights.com/ravens/dashboard/

The Ravens are finally (maybe) getting Lamar Jackson back. At least, that's what all the signs coming out of practice this week suggest.

After three and a half games without their franchise quarterback, they have fallen to 4-3, lost consecutive division games and find themselves looking up at everyone else in the AFC North.

Their latest defeat, a humiliating 35-13 loss to Cincinnati, raised legitimate questions about whether this team is anywhere close to the championship contender we expected.

Now comes a trip to Buffalo, where the 5-1 Bills are waiting after their bye week (thanks schedule makers).

The good news is that Buffalo's defense might be exactly what the Ravens need to get their offense moving again. The Bills have allowed 28.5 points per game, the third-most in football, and have been particularly vulnerable against the pass. A healthy Lamar, Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers should be capable of doing considerable damage.

The bad news is that Buffalo has Josh Allen.

The Bills lead the NFL in scoring at 32.8 points per game, and their offense has been good enough to overcome most of the defensive problems. They are a particularly uncomfortable opponent for a Ravens defense that has repeatedly struggled with tackling, quarterback containment and finishing possessions.

The numbers paint a pretty clear picture of what we should expect.

Through Week 7: Ravens / Bills

Record: 4-3 / 5-1

Points per game: 24.1 / 32.8

Total yards per game: 366.4 / 387.7

Offensive EPA/play rank: 8th / 1st

Defensive EPA/play rank: 19th / 31st

Sources: NFL game statistics and rbsdm EPA rankings through Week 7.

Both teams have elite quarterbacks, dangerous running backs and the ability to produce explosive plays. Neither has a defense that has consistently performed to expectations.

There should be plenty of opportunities to score. The biggest question is whether the Ravens can prevent Buffalo from taking advantage of quite so many of them.

1. How much of Lamar Jackson is actually coming back?

Jackson's return should immediately change what the Ravens can accomplish offensively. But the more important question is whether his ankle will allow him to play the football we're accustomed to seeing.

Before suffering the injury against Tennessee, Lamar was playing at an extraordinary level. He completed 70.8% of his passes, averaged an NFL-best 10.1 yards per attempt and threw six touchdowns against just one interception. His 119.6 passer rating was among the best in football.

Without Lamar, the Ravens have been operating with considerably fewer options. Tyler Huntley delivered when it mattered most against Atlanta and produced a solid first half against Cincinnati, but even when he has played well, the defense hasn't faced the same problems.

That has been particularly apparent with Henry.

A healthy Lamar changes the math of the running game without even needing to call his own number that often. A defensive end who has to account for the quarterback keeping the ball cannot simply chase Henry down the line. Linebackers can't attack downhill quite as aggressively when a keeper might force them to redirect toward the perimeter.

When Lamar isn't a legitimate running threat, defenders can make those decisions much more confidently. It also dampens the big-play ability of the offense when he can’t use his legs to escape the pocket and extend plays.

That is important to watch for this week.

Lamar practiced fully all three days after being limited throughout the previous week. That's an encouraging development, but practice participation doesn't tell us how comfortable he will be planting, cutting or escaping pressure during a game. He even acknowledged in his Friday media session that there is still some pain.

And the Ravens' offensive line isn't exactly providing a reassuring environment for an injured quarterback. Vega Ioane returned to limited practice Thursday and Friday after suffering a knee injury against Cincinnati, but the Ravens have ruled out their starting right guard for Sunday's game.

John Simpson has also been dealing with a groin injury, and the interior line has spent much of the season dealing with injuries and constant personnel changes.

Buffalo has struggled defensively, but it isn't entirely without dangerous pass rushers. Greg Rousseau has generated 39 pressures this season, among the league's highest totals for edge defenders. His matchup against Roger Rosengarten could become particularly important if Jackson is unable to consistently escape pressure.

Still, this is an excellent opportunity for Declan Doyle.

Buffalo ranks 31st in defensive EPA per play and 29th against dropbacks. Opponents have repeatedly found room to move the football, particularly through the air.

Doyle should have opportunities to use motion, play action and the threat of Henry to create favorable passing situations. There is no reason to build an offense that requires Lamar to repeatedly escape three defenders before somebody gets open.

The Ravens need him healthy enough to make the Buffalo defense respect his legs, but they don't need to make him survive 15 dangerous rushing attempts.

If Lamar can move normally, this offense should look dramatically different from what we've watched over the past three weeks.

If he can't, merely having No. 8 back under center won't solve nearly as much as everyone hopes.

2. Josh Allen presents a different challenge for the Ravens defense

The Ravens just watched Joe Burrow dismantle their defense once Cincinnati adjusted its offensive approach.

Burrow finished the second half completing 16 of 18 passes for 249 yards and four touchdowns. The Bengals improved their protection, got the football to their best receivers and prevented the Ravens from consistently disrupting the timing of the passing game.

Buffalo presents an entirely different problem.

Allen can certainly beat a defense from the pocket. He's thrown for 1,504 yards and nine touchdowns through six games, averaging an impressive 8.8 yards per attempt.

Whereas Burrow punished the Ravens by getting the ball out quick and finding his most dangerous targets, Allen can punish a defense by inviting the rush and then beating it with his legs and movement.

He has rushed for 240 yards and an NFL-leading eight touchdowns this season. Those numbers don't fully capture the difficulty of defending him.

Allen can avoid the first defender, extend a passing play and give his receivers additional time to uncover. If the coverage holds but the pass rush loses containment, he can simply take off running. And at approximately 240 pounds, he isn't particularly interested in making life easy for the defender responsible for bringing him down.

The comparison to Lamar is obvious, even if their running styles are very different.

Both quarterbacks force defenses to defend two plays.

First, there is the play the offense actually called. Then there is whatever happens after the quarterback escapes the original structure.

For Jesse Minter, that creates a difficult balance.

The Ravens have enough pass-rushing talent to disrupt Allen. Trey Hendrickson has generated 29 pressures in five appearances, including an excellent 22.3% pressure rate. Mike Green has continued developing into a useful edge defender, while Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones can create problems inside.

There may also be an opportunity to attack Buffalo's right side. Starting right tackle Spencer Brown missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a back injury. If he cannot play, the Ravens should have an opportunity to test his replacement.

But generating pressure against Allen is not simply a matter of sending more defenders. An edge rusher who takes an aggressive path upfield without maintaining outside leverage can create an enormous running lane.

An interior defender who gets too far upfield can allow Allen to step forward into open space. Blitzing a linebacker might create an immediate opportunity for a sack, but it also removes a defender who could otherwise account for Allen escaping.

The Ravens have to rush as a coordinated unit.

Ideally, Hendrickson and Green can force Allen toward the middle while the interior defenders prevent him from stepping through the pocket. Minter can still use simulated pressures and disguised rushers to create favorable matchups, but the coverage behind those looks must account for what happens when Allen survives the initial rush.

Kyle Hamilton could become especially important.

His ability to align near the line of scrimmage, threaten pressure or function as an additional linebacker gives Minter flexibility that most defensive coordinators don't have. Hamilton can also help contain Allen when a play breaks down, provided the Ravens aren't leaving a dangerous receiver uncovered elsewhere.

There is an opportunity here.

Allen has already been sacked 12 times and thrown four interceptions. His willingness to extend plays creates chances for defenders to get him on the ground, force an inaccurate throw or attack the football.

The Ravens don't have to play passively and hope Allen makes a mistake.

They need to create situations where his options become progressively worse rather than allowing the first missed tackle or lost rush lane to turn into an explosive play.

Burrow punished Baltimore by getting the football out quickly.

Allen might punish them by holding onto it.

The Ravens have to be prepared for both possibilities.

3. Buffalo's yards after the catch could expose Baltimore's biggest defensive weakness

Perhaps the most concerning aspect of this matchup isn't Allen's ability to throw deep or escape the pocket. It's what happens when he completes a relatively ordinary pass.

Buffalo has several players capable of turning short completions into significant gains, and the Ravens haven't demonstrated that they can consistently prevent those plays from developing.

Khalil Shakir is the clearest example. Through six games, Shakir has caught 22 passes for 290 yards. According to NFL receiving statistics, 198 of those yards have come after the catch.

Shakir doesn't need to consistently win 20 yards downfield to hurt a defense. Buffalo can get him the football underneath, on crossing routes or in space against zone coverage, and trust him to create additional yardage.

Dalton Kincaid presents another problem.

The tight end leads Buffalo with 315 receiving yards on 23 catches and gives Allen a dependable target between the numbers. He can exploit linebackers who are concerned about Allen running, or settle into the space behind defenders who have stepped forward to account for James Cook.

Kincaid has been managing a chest injury, so we will have to monitor his availability. DJ Moore also appears to be set to return from a shoulder injury, providing another downfield threat.

But the broader problem remains.

This is an offense capable of forcing Ravens defenders to tackle repeatedly in space. That's not encouraging after what we've watched this season.

The Ravens have regularly allowed opposing receivers to turn short completions into first downs. Against New Orleans, Tyler Shough repeatedly found underneath options and watched the Ravens fail to finish the play. Atlanta converted nine of 17 third downs, including four conversions on third-and-10 or longer.

Then Cincinnati exposed the defense again.

Some of those failures are individual. Roquan Smith needs to arrive under control and finish tackles. Hamilton cannot repeatedly lose favorable leverage. Defensive backs must take proper angles instead of allowing receivers to escape toward the sideline or reverse direction into open space.

But the scheme also deserves scrutiny.

Minter has frequently preferred keeping the football in front of his secondary rather than risking explosive plays by leaving defensive backs isolated. That's a reasonable philosophy, particularly when facing dangerous quarterbacks.

However, conceding an eight-yard completion on third-and-10 only makes sense if somebody actually gets the receiver on the ground. If the first defender misses, the coverage structure that successfully prevented a deeper throw has accomplished very little.

The Ravens have used dime packages extensively this season, often with Hamilton functioning as a hybrid linebacker while additional defensive backs handle coverage responsibilities.

That should provide enough speed and flexibility to match Buffalo's passing game. It also places considerable responsibility on smaller defenders to finish tackles and on Hamilton to cover an enormous amount of space.

Allen and the Bills are particularly well equipped to test those responsibilities.

The Ravens need to make Buffalo earn its yardage.

Force Allen to complete six passes instead of one explosive throw. Get the receiver on the ground. Create another third down. Then actually get off the field.

It sounds straightforward.

Unfortunately, the Ravens have spent seven weeks demonstrating just how difficult they can make it look.

4. Zay Flowers could have another enormous game

If there's one matchup that should make Ravens fans optimistic about Sunday, it's Zay Flowers against Buffalo's secondary.

Flowers has been one of the few consistently outstanding parts of this Ravens season.

Despite missing Week 2 and playing through injuries, he has caught 40 passes for 608 yards and three touchdowns. His 15.2 yards per reception and ability to create yardage after the catch have made him one of the most dangerous receivers in football.

And those numbers have come with Lamar Jackson missing the past three games.

The connection between the two was almost absurd before Jackson's injury.

In Flowers' first three appearances this season, he caught 18 passes for 352 yards and two touchdowns on just 22 targets. That works out to 16 yards every time the football was thrown in his direction.

Nobody can reasonably expect that level of efficiency to continue indefinitely, but the important part is how those opportunities were being created.

Doyle has made Flowers a central piece of his offensive design, moving him between the outside, slot and condensed formations. Motion can provide cleaner releases against press coverage.

Bunches and stacks can force defensive backs to navigate traffic.

Play action and the running threat can pull linebackers away from the crossing routes that Flowers has become so dangerous running.

Rather than forcing Flowers to win every matchup from a static position, Doyle has consistently placed him in situations where he already has some advantage before the football arrives.

And Flowers has done the rest.

According to Pro Football Focus, Flowers is averaging an NFL-leading 3.73 yards per route run among qualified receivers. That measures receiving production relative to the number of routes a player actually runs, rather than simply rewarding someone for receiving a large volume of targets.

It's an extraordinary number, especially considering the disruption at quarterback. Buffalo's defense provides a particularly attractive matchup.

Through six games, opposing wide receivers have produced 1,043 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns against the Bills. Buffalo has struggled to consistently cover receivers outside and has also been vulnerable in the slot.

Though he has struggled at times this year, Christian Benford remains a capable cornerback. Maxwell Hairston has been exploited in coverage, while slot corner Dee Alford is managing an ankle injury that kept him out of Thursday's practice.

The secondary will also be without C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who is serving a one-game suspension for spitting on an opponent. Damar Hamlin is expected to take on a larger role.

Those personnel concerns give Doyle several ways to attack.

Flowers can line up outside and test Buffalo's corners vertically. He can move into the slot and attack linebackers or defensive backs who are less comfortable handling his quickness.

Motion can reveal how Buffalo intends to cover him, potentially creating advantageous matchups before the snap.

The Bills will obviously be aware of the threat.

Buffalo could devote additional safety help to Flowers, bracket him on critical downs or use its best cornerback to follow him around the formation.

That's where Doyle needs to make the rest of the offense dangerous.

Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews and the young receivers have to punish Buffalo if it commits too many defenders to Flowers. And Doyle must be willing to use Flowers as a decoy when that attention creates better opportunities elsewhere.

But there's no reason for the Ravens to spend long stretches without involving their best receiving weapon.

Against Cincinnati, Flowers had six catches for 120 yards before halftime and then virtually disappeared until the fourth quarter. Whatever the explanation, that cannot become a regular feature of this offense.

A healthy Lamar should make it easier to consistently find him.

Flowers doesn't have to catch 12 passes for the Ravens to win, but this matchup offers a legitimate opportunity for another enormous performance.

Doyle should make Buffalo prove it can stop him.

5. James Cook vs. Derrick Henry: Who controls the running game?

The quarterback matchup will naturally dominate the attention, but the two running backs might have almost as much influence on the outcome.

And their performances this season have been surprisingly different.

Through Week 7 - James Cook / Derrick Henry

Games: 6 / 7

Carries: 117 / 147

Rushing yards: 627 / 579

Yards per carry: 5.4 / 3.9

Rushing touchdowns: 6 / 7

Fumbles: 4 / 1

Fumbles lost: 2 / 1

Cook has been outstanding.

He's averaging more than five yards per carry while providing Buffalo with a reliable rushing threat that prevents defenses from concentrating exclusively on Allen.

Allen's threat to keep the football can hold edge defenders in place while Cook attacks the interior. Play action can force linebackers forward and open passing opportunities behind them.

And when Cook gets into the second level, he has the acceleration to turn an ordinary running lane into a significant gain.

The Ravens have not consistently defended that combination well.

Baltimore ranks 22nd in defensive rushing EPA allowed, meaning opposing running plays have been more productive than they should be on a down-and-distance-adjusted basis.

That's concerning enough against Cook alone. Adding Allen's ability to keep the football or scramble creates even more responsibilities for a defense that has repeatedly struggled with run fits and tackling.

Buffalo won’t need Allen to carry the offense himself.

The same should be true for the Ravens with Henry, but it hasn't worked out that way recently. Henry has rushed for 579 yards and seven touchdowns this season, respectable production in isolation. But his 3.9 yards per attempt is well below the efficiency we've come to expect.

The past two games have been particularly disappointing.

Against Cleveland, he managed 58 yards on 17 carries. Cincinnati held him to just 45 yards on another 17 attempts.

That's 103 yards on 34 carries across two losses.

Some of the struggles can be attributed to the offensive line. Injuries have disrupted the interior, and the Ravens have too frequently allowed defenders into the backfield before Henry can develop any momentum.

But Lamar’s absence has also made Baltimore's rushing intentions considerably easier to diagnose.

Defenses can attack Henry without worrying nearly as much about the quarterback keeping the football. They can crowd the interior, challenge an inconsistent offensive line and force the Ravens to win individual blocking matchups.

With Lamar back, those responsibilities become much more complicated.

Doyle should be able to combine the quarterback threat, motion and misdirection to create favorable running angles. Buffalo's defensive front has struggled enough that Henry should have chances to produce, particularly if Lamar demonstrates early that he remains willing to keep the football.

Then there's the turnover question.

Cook has already fumbled four times this season, losing two. Henry has lost one, a particularly costly mistake against Cleveland that contributed to the Ravens' defeat.

And anyone who watched last season's opener in Buffalo remembers what happened. Henry rushed for 169 yards and two touchdowns as the Ravens built what appeared to be a comfortable lead. Then his fourth-quarter fumble helped Buffalo launch an extraordinary comeback in a 41-40 victory.

The Ravens don't need another reminder of how quickly one mistake can change a game between these teams.

Cook and Henry are both capable of producing the kind of afternoon that forces an opponent to change its defensive priorities.

They're also handling the football often enough that ball security becomes especially significant. In a matchup featuring two quarterbacks capable of creating touchdowns from almost nothing, a single extra possession could be decisive.

The Ravens need that possession to come from Allen or Cook putting the ball on the ground rather than another Henry mistake.

What will decide the game?

The Bills certainly have some weaknesses the Ravens should be capable of exploiting. Buffalo has one of the league's worst defenses, a vulnerable secondary and several important players dealing with injuries.

If Lamar returns close to full strength, the Ravens should be capable of attacking Buffalo in multiple ways.

Flowers can create explosives. Henry should see better running opportunities. Doyle has enough versatility in his offense to make Buffalo defend far more than it has successfully defended through six games.

I don't think the Ravens need a perfect offensive performance to put up 30 points. Unfortunately, the same can be said about Buffalo.

Allen is playing outstanding football. Cook has been considerably more efficient than Henry.

Shakir and Kincaid present exactly the kind of underneath threats that have repeatedly caused the Ravens problems. And the Bills have been productive enough to overcome their defense allowing nearly 29 points per game.

The Ravens defense has plenty of players with big contracts and big mouths. This is the week they need to step up and let their play do the talking.

Hamilton, Roquan, Wiggins, Humphrey, Hendrickson, Madubuike and the rest of this highly paid group should be capable of considerably better football than we've watched recently.

Minter and Anthony Weaver have the personnel to create pressure, disguise coverage and prevent explosive plays without simply throwing additional defenders at Allen on every passing down.

But eventually the players have to execute.

There are few quarterbacks in football better equipped to punish defensive mistakes than Allen. I expect Lamar's return to make an immediate difference offensively, assuming his ankle allows him to move normally.

Flowers should have another productive afternoon, and I wouldn't be surprised if Henry returns to form against a defense that has struggled to stop much of anything.

The problem is that I have totally lost confidence in the other side of the football. At this point I think many of the veterans just aren’t good football players anymore and the young players are not ready to fill all those shoes.

Until the Ravens demonstrate that they can consistently stop a quality offense, it's difficult to expect them to travel to Buffalo and beat one of the best quarterbacks in the league.

And without knowing if Lamar is fully mobile, it’s tough to expect the offense to win a shootout in Buffalo.

Prediction: Bills 40, Ravens 33.

Saturday October 31, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4451

$1,500 for a maryland football ticket?

While playing golf and dining with several die-hard fans of both Texas A&M and the University of Texas on Friday, the subject of college football came up.

The table was filled with discussion about Arch Manning, the Texas quarterback.

Opinions on him varied. One longtime 'Horns supporter thinks Manning is terrible. "They won't get a nickel of my money while he's there, I can tell you that," one of them said.

"Hit 'em where it hurts the most, in their pocketbook," another guy said.

"They won't miss my hundred grand I give them every summer," the first Texas fan said. "But if they're spending my money on crap like Arch Manning, forget about calling me and asking me for a donation."

Those guys throw around terms like "a hundred grand" the way you and I say, "Would you buy a $20 raffle ticket to support my son's baseball's team? They're going to Japan to play in a tournament next spring."

Anyway, the dining room continued to fill with discussion about college football and then, knowing there were some Marylanders in the room, the conversation shifted to us.

"What about you all?" one of them asked, motioning in the direction of a few guys from the Free State.

I know what you're thinking and it's true. Perhaps the state with the worst motto of them all is Maryland, where virtually nothing is free. If you buy four tires in Maryland, we tax you for the air you're going to put in them.

"We're not really into college football in Maryland," one of the guys said.

The other two of us laughed along with that comment.

"Yeah, on Saturdays in Maryland you usually have two choices. Rake your leaves or watch Maryland football."

"We all own a lot of rakes," the other friend said as the room broke out in laughter.

There was a few minutes of talk about Mike Locksley and Maryland getting their doors blown off at home by UCLA and then, as quickly as the Terps were brought up, they were cast aside for more talk on U.T. and Texas A&M.

I don't remember how ticket prices even came up. I was making coffee and drifting in and out of the conversation. But I heard it very clearly, as did the other Marylanders in the room.

"Did you say your Texas tickets are $1,500 a game?" someone asked one of the Texas fans.

"Well, four of them do cost me that, but those are great seats," one of the guys replied. "The other four are decent seats. Those are only $600 a game."

"I pay $1,000 a ticket at College Station," someone countered.

I guess they really do make things bigger in Texas.

"Now, the nosebleeds are like a hundred bucks," someone else said.

"But you really do get a nosebleed up there," another of the guys said as laughter erupted again.

"As long as the team's good, the Aggies will always get my money," one of the stated. "There for a while, we were really wondering if we should keep investing in the football program. But my granddad and pop would roll over in their graves if I gave up those seats."

I just sat there. Listening. Amazed. $1,500 for a ticket to a college football game.

I have no idea if this is true, because I haven't priced a Maryland football ticket in........well.........forever. But I have to assume you could buy an entire Maryland season ticket for $1,500.

Yes?

There's no way a ticket to a Maryland football game could cost any more than $150. Right?

These people in Texas are paying $1,500 a game, per ticket. And loving it. Not only loving it, but treating it like it's a family heirloom, almost.

Now, I also realize it's all relative.

A haircut at Sport Clips in Manhattan costs $60. In Baltimore, it costs $35. Things are more expensive in the Big Apple, but people also make a lot more money to be able to afford over-paying for that luxury.

So, I expected a football ticket to see the Texas Longhorns to be an expensive outlay. But, honestly, had you asked me, I would have guessed the best seats might have cost you $250 per-game. Maybe that's me just stuck in 2006 instead of the realities of 2026.

Can you imagine spending $1,500 to see Maryland lose to Ohio State or Michigan, 48-10?

Or, perhaps even worse, spending $1,500 to see Maryland lose to Rutgers?

On this Halloween Saturday, I thought I'd pay homage to the late-but-more-than-great singer-songwriter, Warren Zevon.

Why today?

Because of all the great songs Zevon wrote in his career, the biggest hit he ever had, by far, was "Werewolves of London".

And it receives more radio airplay on October 31 than any other day of the year.

"This is a dumb song for smart people," Zevon would often say when introducing "Werewolves" at a concert.

The tune is about the way society tends to overlook a man's faults if he's good looking and "well kept" as Zevon pointed out in a Rolling Stone article.

"A man can do almost anything he wants if he looks the part and he's stylish," Zevon said. "You can even be a werewolf and get away with it, providing your clothes are well pressed and clean and your hair is, can we say, perfect?"

That, of course, was a nod to the lyrics of the song where Zevon sings, "And his hair was perfect."

Zevon recalled a time he was in a Chicago bank and a man was dismayed because he couldn't get a $25,000 business loan.

"He did it all wrong," Zevon told Rolling Stone. "A suit and tie and a haircut and a nice shave beforehand would have sealed the loan for him. But he went in there looking slovenly. He left without getting his loan approved."

"Charisma and style count for something," Zevon said. "That's what "Werewolves" is all about. You can be wear a werewolf in London and still get the prettiest girl in the room if you just look good and act like you've got it all together."

We hear a song about a werewolf in London and think about, quite literally, a werewolf roaming the streets of London.

Zevon was thinking in a much different way. He was talking about class and hierarchy and the way society judges someone who looks nice vs. someone who isn't dressed for the part.

Like he said, it's a dumb song for smart people.

Not to be forgotten: The song is on the album, "Excitable Boy", which, in my lifetime, is a Top 10 album. Like, ever. Zevon was a genius and an incredibly gifted song writer and musician. If you ever wanted to just sit and listen to an amazing, underrated album, "Excitable Boy" is a great option.

Friday October 30, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4450

"performance" beats criticism

We had a solid question thrown my way this week in the Comments section and I'll take some time this morning to address it, leaving the door open for all of you to do the same if you'd like.

But first, just a quick note that it looks like life is going to get back to normal for the Ravens this Sunday in Buffalo. Lamar has practiced twice and the spread is Buffalo (-3), which is Vegas's way of calling it a coin-flip game. Buffalo's potentially explosive offense against Baltimore's soft secondary and Baltimore's potentially explosive offense against Buffalo's soft secondary.

Heads it's Buffalo. Tails it's Baltimore. That's what the oddsmakers are saying with their own opinions that Lamar is going to play.

And I think that's very fair. With Lamar, the Ravens can definitely go into Buffalo and win.

By the way, I'm not 100% sure, personally, Lamar's playing. I think two days of "full" practice bodes well for him. I'm 95% sure he's playing, let's say. But I'd never say he's definitely playing. If Lamar wakes up on Saturday morning and there's some stiffness or discomfort, he's not going to play.

And that brings us to today's topic. In the form of a question posed to me from Ian back on Wednesday.

You've mentioned several times that it's common knowledge in The Castle that Lamar only plays when he feels 100%. But you haven't said whether you think that's wrong or whether that's different than how other QBs deal with pain. Also, do you agree with the national narrative that, besides refusing to play with pain, Lamar doesn't communicate well with the team about his injuries? Thanks.

This place is here for me, and you, to give insight and opinion.

I handled one part of that by giving you insight. Ian picked up on that. I have insight that the Ravens are never surprised when Lamar doesn't play "with" an injury of some sort. He does not like to play unless he's 100% and "fully" capable of being Lamar.

The next part will be opinion.

Ian asks for mine.

But you haven't said whether you think that's wrong or whether that's different than how other QBs deal with pain. Also, do you agree with the national narrative that, besides refusing to play with pain, Lamar doesn't communicate well with the team about his injuries?

Do I think it's "wrong" that Lamar tends to miss a lot of games with injuries? And is that "different" than other quarterbacks?

It's not wrong. It's unfortunate.

Some guys play through injuries. Some don't. Sometimes when you play through an injury, you make it worse. That much is true.

But it is what it is. Some guys will play with pain and some won't.

Is it "different"? Here's where I'll be a little careful with my wording and just say this: "It appears to be different."

I use the word "appears" because I'm not in any of those NFL locker rooms to know exactly what's going on when, say, Patrick Mahomes gets hurt or Trevor Lawrence gets hurt or Joe Burrow gets hurt.

I have no way of knowing if Josh Allen or Aaron Rodgers would have played with/played through the same injury Lamar picked up on week #4 at home vs. Tennessee. I just don't know. But Allen never misses games. Rodgers is 42 and other than that torn achilles (from which he was evidently all set to return from in an unheard of 12 weeks) a few years ago, he plays all (or most of the) of the games.

But, frankly, that question isn't the important part of Ian's query.

Should Lamar play more when he's hurt? That's the one question Ian threw my way that is important.

I'll answer it like this: Whenever Lamar doesn't play, the Ravens are more prone to losing than winning. They're in the business of winning football games.

How's that for an answer without pointing the finger directly at Lamar and saying, "You have to play when you're hurt."

Lamar himself has to know that, by the way. He knows when he plays the Ravens are likely going to win and when he doesn't play they're likely going to lose.

But you can't make him play if he doesn't want to play.

I've seen or heard several ex-Ravens comes to Lamar's aid recently, namely Torrey Smith and Femi Ayanbadejo, insisting you don't just "play through" an injury like the one Lamar suffered.

Ayanbadejo has gone to great lengths on the radio this week to tear apart the narrative that Lamar could have and should have played against the Bengals on Sunday. I like Femi. I've been in his presence several times. I think he knows football, for sure.

I also think Femi will always go out of his way to protect a fellow player and fellow Raven.

And I get that. Really, I do.

I hear some people call Lamar "soft" or "not tough" and I don't have any real evidence to support either of those claims until the time comes when he gets injured and then we wind up having no idea what's going on with him.

When he picks up what appears to be a mild/moderate "knock" of some sort (ankle, hip, hamstring, back) and then misses extensive time with those injuries, it's common to wonder if other quarterbacks would have played through those injuries or, perhaps, returned a week or two earlier than Lamar did.

I think that's human nature to wonder those things.

Do I think Lamar is "soft"? Not necessarily. Do I think Lamar will play with pain and discomfort? I do not.

Lamar has to be 100% in order for him to feel comfortable playing.

Like it or not, that's just the way he is. He's not getting "a shot" and he's not taping up his ankle in a way that might restrict his mobility or elusiveness.

And, so, the question always is this: "Is Lamar at 80% (or 70%, or 60%) better than Tyler Huntley at 100%?"

The Ravens probably always say to themselves, "Yes!" when they consider that question.

Lamar doesn't think that way.

And to finish off Ian's question about Lamar and the team communicating well while he's hurt. I don't think that's an issue. Lamar's here, in town, and the season is ongoing. They have access to him every single day.

Do the Ravens get frustrated with Lamar in the off-season when they sometimes can't get a hold of him or get a return text from him within two or three days? Yes, they do.

But in the off-season, Lamar's off doing his own thing.

In the season, they're around him every day and he's in the building every day. I don't think in-season communication is an issue.

Here's what's going to fix this narrative that Lamar doesn't play when he's hurt: Winning when he does play.

If Lamar returns this week and the Ravens go into Buffalo and win, the whole Bengals fiasco goes further and further into the rear view mirror.

If Lamar doesn't get hurt again this season and the Ravens roll on to a 12-5 record and win the AFC North, no one remembers or cares about the games he missed.

If Lamar and the Ravens go to the Super Bowl in February, no one cares about Lamar's ankle sprain.

The narrative gets fixed with winning.

Now......if Lamar goes his entire career and doesn't make and/or win a Super Bowl? Part of his career narrative, Hall of Fame and all, will focus on that. The same way the Dan Marino career narrative focuses on Marino never winning one.

But 20 years from now, will people say, "Ohhhh, that Lamar Jackson guy. He wouldn't play in 2026 when he had an ankle sprain, remember?"

I don't think so.

We might always remember Jackson as a guy who was great when he played but didn't want to suit up when he was hurt, but we're only going to mutter those words if the Ravens don't win a Super Bowl with #8 at quarterback.

Winning replaces everything.

The fan base is frustrated with Lamar -- to whatever degree they are -- because there's no Super Bowl trophy in Lamar's career to date.

That all changes with winning.

It's the one thing that fixes every ailment and wins every argument.

faith in sports

In case you didn't hear, the great Ernie Johnson is retiring after this NBA season concludes next summer. Johnson is the longtime lead studio host for NBA coverage, as you're probably aware.

He is one of the most amazing men in sports. I've published several videos of his here for you over the years. There are few people in sports I'd ever put up on a pedestal and say, "Now that, right there, is a great person." But I would do that for Ernie Johnson.

A few years ago, the folks at Turner Broadcasting had Ernie come in for a conference with their employees and Johnson spent the better part of one afternoon addressing them to talk about "teamwork".

It was in that session where Johnson's light shined the brighest.

There's a 5-minute video clip below I'd like you to watch. Are you someone who has a "got to" mentality instead of a "get to" mentality? This one's for you.

Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of #DMD and our "Faith in Sports" segment here every Friday at #DMD.

Thursday October 29, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4449

wednesday with greg on a thursday

In all fairness to Greg Trehane, almost all of the questions in this week's "Wednesday with" were in my e-mail inbox early Tuesday morning.

But by late morning, I was on a train for D.C. and had a full afternoon planned pre-gaming for the Rush concert on Tuesday evening.

So, I reached out to the boss (no, not Springsteen, the boss of the website -- me) and asked if I could hold "Wednesday with" by 24 hours so I could enjoy the return of Geddy and Alex to the stage without any worries.

The boss gave his approval.

So, here, today, is Wednesday with Greg on a Thursday.

As a bonus, Greg sent me two questions on Wednesday afternoon that I was able to include in today's edition. So you get a bonus edition of "Wednesday with".

But before that, we couldn't ignore the two biggest stories in sports from Wednesday.

#1. The dismantling and thrashing of the Flyers, by the Capitals, in D.C. last night. The final was 5-2, but it coulda, shoulda, woulda been 10-2.

Rush on Tuesday night and the Flyers getting bloodied at the woodshed in the same building, 24 hours later? Eureka!

#2. The Brewers making quick, light work of the Rays in the World Series, with Milwaukee winning, 4-1, last night, to win the series in five games.

As I watched them celebrate on the field in Tampa Bay and in the stands in Milwaukee, all I could think about was one word: Lucky.

And I don't mean "lucky" that they won. Not at all. Milwaukee was the best team in baseball all season. I meant "lucky" that you get to enjoy a baseball championship with a team that has been laboring and battling for a long, long time.

I always say this about the NFL. If the Ravens can't win it, I hope the Lions or Browns win it all. Those fan bases deserve it.

The same goes for baseball fans in Milwaukee. It's so cool to see them finally get rewarded with a title.

There were apparently 25,000 Brewers fans in Tampa Bay for the three games this week. 25,000!!

Anyway, we can dream that maybe next year, we'll be experiencing the very same thing here in Baltimore.

Hope springs eternal.

And now, on to Greg and his questions.

Greg: "Major League Baseball is looking to reduce the length of the season from 162 to 154 games. If you could wave a magic wand and make one other major change to the sport, what would you do?"

DF: "Well, I think one interesting thing would be to give every team an in-season "bye week". That would give every team a chance to catch their breath, re-tool, make trades, etc.

In the game, here's one I'd definitely consider doing: I'd let you bat ANYONE of your choice one time in the 9th inning. In other words, you can bring your best hitter up in the 9th inning, no matter what the batting order dictates. If the Dodgers want to beat Ohtani in the 9th inning, they can.

You're paying these guys $30 million, $40 million, etc. and then in the 9th inning, they don't get to help decide the game? That seems kind of weird. Imagine saying to SGA or Luka Doncic, "You're not allowed to take a shot in the final 30 seconds of the game."

I know that's a radical rule change, but I'd love to see that one get considered. You can bat anyone you want one time in the 9th inning."

Greg: "You are asked to run the new 31st baseball team in the Major leagues and the powers that be have decided you can pick one player from either the Brewers or Rays to start your new team. Any one player. Who are you taking and why?"

DF: "Tough one here. The knee jerk reaction is to take Misiorowski, the Brewers pitcher who throws 100mph like you and I make right turns on red. I realize pitchers who throw with that kind of velocity tend to burn out rather quickly or suffer a mid-career arm injury, but if you got 3-5 great years of Misiorowski, you might win a World Series or two in that span.

I also like Churio a lot as well. 22 years old, hits for average and power. Looks like he's one of those "5-tool guys" who is capable of doing it all.

Baseball folks would say "take the pitching" but there's something about having a player you can pencil in there 150 days a year and know you're pretty much getting a hit once every three at bats, a home run every week, and Gold Glove-caliber defense in the outfield.

I might have to flip a coin. It's that much up in the air. I'll go with Churio."

Greg: "Week eight of the NFL season is this weekend. Based on what you see and have seen, who will play in the Super Bowl?"

DF: "I feel like John Harbaugh on this one. I should say, 'We're only halfway there. Why ask me this?' But I get. Halfway home, basically. Who is going to play in the Super Bowl?

I have this weird feeling about the 49'ers. I think they're very good, mind you. But I think they're good AND fragile. It's hard to keep Mike Evans healthy. I feel like CMc is always one hit away from missing 4-6 weeks. Something tells me they're going to come up short because of roster depth.

I still think Seattle is very good, but I also know it's hard to repeat. Very hard. So that leaves them out.

What the heck, I'll buy stock in the Bears. I'll say Chicago beats San Fran in the NFC title game.

And in the AFC, there's just no way to tell. Is Denver legit? Are the Bengals real? I don't know. And I don't know.

It could be the Chiefs. Or the Bills. If Lamar ever stayed healthy for a season, it might be the Ravens. I'll go rogue in the AFC and say it's Cincinnati vs. Chicago in the Super Bowl.

That match up is so improbable that there's simply no way it can happen."

Greg: "I saw a couple of people post a comment at DMD about possibly trading Lamar away rather than have him cost the Ravens $85 million on the salary cap next season. Would you be in favor of trading him?"

DF: "There are so many moving parts to that question. For starters, you can't just trade Lamar. He has to approve it. So that narrows your choices down to, I'm guessing, one of only four teams. The three Florida teams and the Falcons. Anyone else, he's saying no, I'm thinking.

On the surface, trading Lamar seems idiotic, right? I mean, he's one of the 5 (?) best quarterbacks in football. We've already seen that the Ravens can't be competitive if Lamar's not the QB.

But there's something else idiotic: An $85 million salary cap number on your QB.

So, the Ravens have to put a new deal together for him to keep him in the fold and if they do that, Lamar's going to become the highest paid player in football.

You're not getting out of this cycle with Lamar. And he's earned that distinction. But every few years, you're going to have to tear up his old deal and sign him to a new deal that makes him the highest paid player in the league.

Would I trade Lamar? I would if I could pave the way for the future of the Ravens to be successful. But I'd have to be absolutely overwhelmed with the deal. And I mean, completely overwhelmed. Like, I'm asking for three number one picks and two competent veteran players and if you say "no", then kick rocks. You would have to overpay by a lot to get Lamar Jackson if I ran the club.

But I'm not actively looking to deal him. What I'm trying to actively do is get him into a contract that doesn't blow up my salary cap moving forward."

Greg: "There was a report over the weekend that Tiger Woods is telling people he plans on returning to competitive golf in 2027. What do you think that means for him?

DF: "I assume it means the same thing as always. He'd like to play the Genesis in February because it's "his tournament", so to speak. He runs it, the Tiger Woods foundation is involved in it, and so on.

Now, whether that's realistic for 2027, I have no idea. I would also assume he'd like to play one March tournament, probably the one in Orlando if he had his druthers, just to stay somewhat "tuned up" for April and Augusta National.

He obviously wants to play the Masters next spring. That goes without saying.

If you made me bet it, I'd bet you that he does play at Augusta in the Masters. But that's his first tournament of the year and, potentially, the only one he plays until the British Open at St. Andrews. This could be the last time he gets to play the British at St. Andrews, so I'm guessing he wants to play there in July if possible.

But I wouldn't be putting much stock in anything, schedule wise, for Tiger. I mean, overall, it's far more likely he doesn't play in one tournament than he plays in two tournaments. I'd love to see Tiger play again. I just don't think it's likely, other than perhaps the Masters."

Greg: "Was there a highlight song or moment from the Rush concert you saw (last night) on Tuesday?"

DF: "My favorite all-time Rush song is an obscure tune off of the Moving Pictures album. It's the 5th song. "The Camera Eye". And they played that on Tuesday night. So that was quite a thrill.

But the highlight song, I thought, was another somewhat obscure tune from the Hemispeheres album, an instrumental only effort called "La Villa Strangiato". I was really surprised they incorporated that song into the setlist. But they did. And it really showcased how highly functioning the three of them (well, four, really, they also had a behind-the-scenes keyboardist) were on Tuesday night and how seamlessly the new drummer fits in with Alex and Geddy.

I have beyond zero musical talent. Nothing. Couldn't strum a guitar if I wanted to. So I'm always amazed when I see incredible musicians like those three work at their craft in front of 18,000 people."

Wednesday October 28, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4448

wednesday tuesday with geddy and alex

I'm mostly going to take the morning off here today.

Our resident -- and outstanding -- football guru Randy Morgan will do the heavy lifting on this beautiful Wednesday in The Land of Pleasant Living.

I'll offer a couple of pieces of commentary here, mainly just to cover a couple of things that need covering. But Randy's piece below on the NFL should easily get you through this morning. There aren't many people in the market with Randy's expertise on numbers and data and how it all connects to the Ravens and the rest of the NFL.

I'm slower than usual this morning because I'm working on about 4.5 hours sleep. I know, I know. "Go to bed earlier," is what you're saying to me right now.

I couldn't go to bed earlier. You see, there was this concert in D.C. last night and then a World Series baseball game that went 12 innings and featured a pair of dramatic events. First there was a homer from the Brewers and then a 2-run rally by the Rays. It resulted in a 4-3 Tampa Bay win that keeps the dream alive for the Rays despite being in a 3-1 hole now.

The concert? Whatever I was expecting, it was tripled. I can't give you a word to describe the performance from Rush last night at the downtown arena. I'll just say "amazing" and leave it at that.

Geddy Lee, Alex Lifeson and the band's (new?) drummer for this tour, Anika Nilles, went through almost 3 hours of incredible music last night, including playing their best album ever, Moving Pictures, from front to back.

By playing Moving Pictures for us, that meant I got to hear my all-time favorite Rush song, The Camera Eye. It's the 5th song on that album, which included the band's biggest mainstream hit ever, Tom Sawyer, and another landmark tune, Limelight.

I don't know how many times I've heard The Camera Eye live, but I'm thinking maybe only once or twice previously. So last night was an incredible treat, particularly sharing the whole evening with my best friend from high school. We both got into D.C. at 2:30 in the afternoon on Tuesday, did dinner and drinks beforehand, and had the best night we could given that we're.........old.

As Geddy Lee said when the band took a brief 15-minute intermission between the first and second sets: "We're gonna go get a couple of knee replacements and we'll be back shortly."

Our hotel in D.C. was, quite literally, filled with Rush fans. The entire city, at least near the arena in Chinatown, was "Rush everywhere". Everyone in every bar and restaurant was going to the show last night. They sold 18,000 tickets. They could have sold 28,000 tickets.

When the show finished, we headed out for a nightcap and to watch the last moments of the Brewers/Rays World Series game. That turned into another 90 minutes "out on the town" as the teams battled into the 10th, 11th and, eventually, 12th inning.

A couple of friends I was with couldn't make it to the finish line, but a few hearty souls still beaming from the Rush show stuck it out with me and watched it all unfold in the hotel bar. I mean, I'm not going to bed and missing Milwaukee win the World Series.

Alas, they didn't win. Tampa Bay rallied for two runs in the 12th to win Game 4.

I'll tell you who else isn't winning: Marlon Humphrey.

I wrote this here a year ago and it bears repeating now. And before any of you write, "They can't force players to not do podcasts", I realize the organization can't make players stay away from the microphone.

But Humphrey is showing just how "unsmart" he is by continuing to do a meaningless podcast DURING THE SEASON that only serves to cause tension and friction with goofy stuff that he says.

And I'm not even specifically pointing to stuff that he said yesterday. I'm just saying...in general. Stop talking during the season. Stop talking. And just play football for us.

You have media obligations during the week and after game. Handle those professionally. Say what you want. You have a forum. Use it.

But going on the microphone during the week -- even on your day off -- and talking about the team's performance isn't productive.

I'd counter anyone -- including a player -- who says, "What's the harm in doing a podcast?" by offering the obvious retort to that: "What's the benefit?"

Name one benefit of doing your own in-season, mid-week podcast. (Other than money, which, A) no player really needs and B) if they are getting money of some sort, it's not nearly enough to matter to them)

I'm still here. Waiting for someone to identify a benefit from Marlon Humphrey getting on the microphone and talking about the football team and his teammates in a public, "open mic" setting.

And here's my ENTIRE point about this: That Humphrey isn't aware that his podcast is poor form tells you a lot about how in touch with things he really is.

As a veteran player, Humphrey should know. He should be worried about his football and his football only. Getting behind a microphone on Tuesday doesn't interest us. Playing good football on Sunday and beating the Browns and Bengals -- now that interests us.

Anyway, I know the Ravens hate it. "It", of course, is any kind of uncontrolled media the players immerse themselves in. I know the Ravens hate that guys like Humphrey go on the air and just say whatever comes to mind. I assume the rest of the guys in the locker room aren't fans of it, either.

The Ravens hate that Humphrey does it, but there's nothing they can do about it. Their wish is that he would be smart enough himself to pull away during the season and just concentrate on football.

He apparently isn't.

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

Dual Eights NFL Rankings, Week 7: 49ers Hold No. 1

Find the full rankings through week 7 at: https://dualeights.com/nfl/

The San Francisco 49ers finally lost a football game Sunday. According to the Dual Eights Efficiency Index, they're still the best team in the NFL.

San Francisco's 29-20 loss in Atlanta trimmed its lead, but seven weeks of consistently strong offensive performance have given the 49ers enough of a cushion to remain first in both our Efficiency and Power rankings.

Elsewhere, Week 7 produced some significant movement.

Seattle's defense delivered the most impressive performance of the week, holding the previously unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs to three points and pushing the Seahawks into third. Tampa Bay demolished Carolina 43-13 and jumped six places into the top 10, despite having a 2-5 record.

The Buccaneers are now sixth in Efficiency. Yes, sixth.

Meanwhile, Minnesota remains undefeated at 6-0 but continues to rank considerably lower in our forward-looking Power Index. The Vikings have one of the league's best defenses and one of its worst offenses, a combination that keeps winning games without entirely convincing the model that Minnesota belongs among the NFL's elite.

And then there are the Ravens.

Baltimore's 35-13 collapse against Cincinnati dropped the Ravens three positions to 14th, their lowest Efficiency ranking since we introduced the Power Index. However, DEPI still places them eighth, provided Lamar Jackson is healthy enough to return.

That distinction between what teams have actually produced and what we expect them to do next is becoming increasingly important.

1. San Francisco 49ers — 68.6

6-1 | Week 6: 1 | DEPI: 1 (+7.37)

The 49ers finally stumbled, but their first defeat wasn't enough to knock them from the top. Atlanta's 29-20 victory reduced San Francisco's Efficiency rating by 0.84 points, narrowing its lead over Jacksonville to 1.46. That's a meaningful difference, but not enough to overcome everything the 49ers accomplished through their opening six victories.

San Francisco's offense remains the foundation. The 49ers are averaging +0.175 expected points added (EPA) per offensive play, with a success rate of 53.3%. That means they are consistently creating positive situations rather than depending entirely on occasional explosive plays.

Interestingly, the model's opponent-adjusted offensive component actually improved slightly this week. The decline came primarily from defense and special teams.

There are legitimate reasons to reassess a team after its first loss, particularly when the defense struggles. But there is little reason to discard six weeks of excellent performance because Atlanta produced an upset.

DEPI agrees, keeping the 49ers first at +7.37 points. That rating did decline by approximately 0.78 points.

San Francisco remains the team everyone else is chasing.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars — 67.1

4-2 | Week 6: 2 | DEPI: 6 (+4.06)

Jacksonville didn't play in Week 7, but the Jaguars remain close enough to San Francisco that another strong performance could restore their position at the top.

The Jaguars' offensive efficiency stands at +0.158 EPA per play, with the defense allowing - 0.033. That's a particularly appealing combination because it doesn't require one unit to compensate for severe weaknesses elsewhere.

Jacksonville's second-place Efficiency ranking makes sense based on its current production.

The Power Index is a little more cautious.

DEPI ranks the Jaguars sixth at +4.06, indicating that their current-season performance is stronger than the model's expectation for future games.

That isn't necessarily a criticism. Jacksonville has demonstrated that it can play at an elite level.

The question is whether seven weeks provide enough evidence to assume that level will continue.

The Jaguars fell from fourth to sixth in DEPI during their bye, a change driven by the model's reassessment of team strength across the league rather than anything Jacksonville did on the field.

3. Seattle Seahawks — 65.4

4-3 | Week 6: 5 | DEPI: 9 (+2.76)

Seattle made the loudest statement of Week 7.

Holding the undefeated Chiefs to three points in a 20-3 victory is impressive under almost any circumstances. Doing it against an offense that had averaged +0.121 EPA per play entering the updated rankings is even more convincing.

Seattle's defense has now allowed -0.134 EPA per play this season, while opposing offenses have succeeded on just 36.5% of their snaps. The Week 7 performance improved Seattle's opponent-adjusted offense and defense, lifting its overall Efficiency score by 3.45 points.

What keeps the Seahawks from being ranked higher in DEPI is their offense.

The forward-looking model values Seattle's defense at +3.08 points and special teams at +0.79, but projects the offense to contribute 1.10 points below average.

That leaves Seattle ninth in DEPI despite ranking third in Efficiency.

There is a reasonable argument that an exceptional defense and strong special teams can carry a team further than the model currently expects. Seattle just demonstrated that against one of the NFL's best opponents.

But there is also a difference between winning games with dominant defense and consistently beating other elite teams when the defense isn't having its best afternoon.

The Seahawks have established their defensive credentials. Their offensive limitations remain the question.

4. Chicago Bears — 63.3

5-2 | Week 6: 4 | DEPI: 4 (+4.60)

Chicago continues to look like one of the NFC's more credible contenders, improving to 5-2 with a 30-24 victory over New England.

The Bears remain fourth in Efficiency, although their score actually declined slightly following the victory.

The primary reason was a weaker opponent-adjusted defensive performance. Chicago's defense is allowing opposing offenses to succeed on 41.2% of plays, while its own offense has generated +0.049 EPA per play.

Those numbers are solid rather than overwhelming, but the Bears have assembled a balanced enough profile to consistently compete.

Unlike Seattle or Minnesota, there isn't a substantial disagreement between the two indexes. DEPI also ranks Chicago fourth at +4.60. The Rams are third at +4.63, a difference of less than four hundredths of a point.

For practical purposes, those teams are virtually tied.

Chicago's Week 8 trip to Seattle should be particularly interesting. The Efficiency rankings favor the Seahawks, while the Power Index gives Chicago a slight advantage even after accounting for Seattle's home field.

We'll return to that matchup later.

5. Cincinnati Bengals — 62.7

4-2 | Week 6: 7 | DEPI: 5 (+4.16)

The Bengals provided Ravens fans with an extremely unpleasant demonstration of their offensive capabilities Sunday. Cincinnati entered halftime trailing 13-0, then scored 35 unanswered points to turn what appeared to be a promising afternoon for Baltimore into a blowout.

The Bengals' offense generated approximately +0.331 EPA per play against the Ravens, an exceptional single-game number. Their opponent-adjusted defense also improved, though that performance needs to be viewed in the context of Tyler Huntley starting instead of Lamar Jackson.

The result added 3.62 points to Cincinnati's Efficiency rating and lifted the Bengals two positions into the top five. For the season, Cincinnati's offense is averaging +0.109 EPA per play with a 48.5% success rate.

The more encouraging development for Cincinnati is that both sides of the ball contributed to the improvement. The offense has enough talent to overwhelm opponents when the protection and timing are functioning. If the defense can consistently put opposing offenses into difficult situations, the Bengals become considerably more dangerous.

DEPI ranks Cincinnati fifth at +4.16, making it one of the teams where current production and future expectations align almost perfectly.

That's not great news for the Ravens.

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 61.3

2-5 | Week 6: 12 | DEPI: 10 (+2.10)

Tampa Bay might be the most confusing team in football.

The Buccaneers are 2-5. They are also sixth in our Efficiency Index following the largest improvement of Week 7.

Their 43-13 demolition of Carolina improved the index by 6.16 points and moved Tampa Bay up six positions.

What makes the improvement particularly encouraging is that all three components contributed. The defense supplied the biggest gain, the offense wasn't far behind, and special teams also improved.

Tampa Bay's defense is now allowing -0.109 EPA per play over the season, which is the strongest argument for taking the Buccaneers seriously despite their record. The offense, however, is still averaging -0.081 EPA per play. One excellent afternoon doesn't erase an otherwise inefficient start.

The Buccaneers have demonstrated enough defensive ability, and enough improvement elsewhere, to suggest they are better than their record. Though DEPI is somewhat less enthusiastic, ranking them 10th at +2.10.

But both models now view Tampa Bay as an above-average team.

At some point, the Buccaneers need to translate that underlying improvement into actual victories. A 2-5 record still creates a difficult path to the postseason, regardless of how impressive the efficiency numbers become.

7. Kansas City Chiefs — 60.1

5-1 | Week 6: 3 | DEPI: 12 (+1.27)

Kansas City's unbeaten start came to an abrupt end in Seattle, and the Efficiency Index responded.

The Chiefs lost 5.21 index points, dropping four places to seventh.

The model recorded deterioration in all three components, with the opponent-adjusted defense contributing the largest share of the decline.

Of course, the offense scoring three points wasn't exactly a ringing endorsement of its afternoon, either.

Kansas City still averages +0.121 offensive EPA per play for the season, which is a reminder that one awful outing does not erase everything the unit has done.

But the Power Index has been skeptical of the Chiefs for several weeks.

Despite a 5-1 record, Kansas City ranks only 12th in DEPI at +1.27. That rating fell from approximately +2.75 entering the week.

This is a substantial disagreement between reputation, record and underlying projections.

The Chiefs have demonstrated they can win games. What they haven't consistently demonstrated, according to our models, is the level of dominance we normally associate with a top-tier championship contender.

Seattle exposed that gap rather dramatically.

8. Minnesota Vikings — 59.5

6-0 | Week 6: 6 | DEPI: 16 (-0.22)

Minnesota remains undefeated.

The Vikings are also one of the league's least efficient offensive teams.

Both statements are true, and figuring out how long they can coexist is becoming one of the more interesting questions of the season.

Minnesota beat Indianapolis 16-10 to improve to 6-0, but its Efficiency score declined by 2.31 points.

The defense remains extraordinary.

The Vikings allow -0.197 EPA per play, with opposing offenses succeeding on just 34.9% of snaps. That's the kind of defensive performance that can win games almost independently.

Unfortunately, the offense appears increasingly willing to test that theory.

Minnesota is averaging -0.090 EPA per offensive play with a success rate of just 36.0%.

DEPI quantifies the imbalance. It projects the offense at -4.05 points, partially offset by a +2.81 defensive contribution and +1.00 from special teams.

The result is a Power Index rating of -0.22, placing the undefeated Vikings 16th.

There is a legitimate counterargument here.

Minnesota has won six games. Defense and special teams are real football, not statistical inconveniences. And continually forcing opponents into inefficient possessions can be a sustainable formula when the defensive talent and execution are good enough.

But championship-caliber offenses eventually find ways to score, even against excellent defenses. When that happens, can Minnesota consistently answer?

The Vikings have earned every one of their victories. They haven't yet demonstrated that their current formula provides a realistic championship ceiling.

9. Detroit Lions — 58.3

4-2 | Week 6: 13 | DEPI: 7 (+3.05)

Detroit returns to the top 10 following a hard-fought 20-17 victory over Green Bay.

The Lions climbed four positions and gained 3.53 Efficiency points, with the defense and special teams providing most of the improvement.

That's encouraging because Detroit's offense has never really been the biggest concern.

The Lions are averaging +0.164 EPA per offensive play with a 50.0% success rate. Those are excellent numbers, comparable to the production of teams ranked considerably higher.

The defense remains the problem.

Detroit is allowing +0.140 EPA per play, a poor number for a team with serious championship ambitions.

One encouraging defensive performance doesn't suddenly resolve a season-long weakness.

But the Lions don't necessarily need their defense to become dominant. They need it to become competent enough that their offense isn't constantly forced to overcome what happens on the other side of the ball.

DEPI ranks Detroit seventh at +3.05, slightly ahead of its current Efficiency position.

The Power Index sees an offensive foundation strong enough to keep the Lions among the NFC contenders.

If the defense continues improving, Detroit has considerable room to climb.

10. Buffalo Bills — 56.7

5-1 | Week 6: 9 | DEPI: 2 (+4.95)

Buffalo rounds out the top 10 despite spending Week 7 on a bye.

The Bills are another team whose offensive and defensive profiles point in dramatically different directions.

Buffalo averages +0.215 offensive EPA per play, one of the strongest figures in the league.

Defensively, the Bills are allowing +0.135 EPA per play and a 47.7% opposing success rate.

That's an enormous disparity.

The Efficiency Index sees a team whose exceptional offensive performance is being dragged down by a defense that hasn't consistently held up.

DEPI is far more optimistic, ranking Buffalo second at +4.95.

The Power Index expects the Bills' offense to remain dangerous enough to compensate for many of those defensive problems. There is no question that Buffalo can beat almost anyone when its offense is functioning at a high level.

Whether the defense can become reliable enough to support a serious postseason run remains the much bigger question.

Buffalo is also barely holding onto its top-10 Efficiency position, sitting just 0.11 index points ahead of the Rams.

Its Week 8 matchup with Baltimore should be especially revealing, particularly if Lamar Jackson returns.

Where Are the Ravens? A Fall to 14th With a Major Qualification

The Ravens were fifth in Efficiency after Week 5.

Two consecutive losses have dropped them all the way to 14th.

Their 35-13 defeat against Cincinnati produced another 2.60-point decline, moving Baltimore three places from its Week 6 position of 11th.

That is obviously concerning, and the manner of Sunday's defeat only makes the situation more frustrating.

The Ravens entered halftime leading 13-0. They had controlled much of the opening half despite playing with Tyler Huntley at quarterback.

Then Cincinnati scored 35 unanswered points.

This wasn't merely an offense struggling without Lamar Jackson. The defense allowed Joe Burrow and Cincinnati to repeatedly move the football and score during the second half. The Ravens failed to turn an excellent opening 30 minutes into anything resembling a competitive finish.

The Efficiency Index doesn't give Baltimore credit for having Lamar Jackson on the roster. It evaluates the football the Ravens actually played, and the last two weeks haven't been good enough.

The Power Index takes a different approach.

DEPI still ranks Baltimore eighth at +2.78, reflecting the model's expectation of what the Ravens should look like with Jackson as their starting quarterback. The eighth-place rating is not a prediction of how a Huntley-led Ravens team would perform next Sunday. It assumes Lamar's return to the lineup.

The Ravens have fallen to 4-3, including an 0-2 record in the AFC North. Their second-half performances have become particularly concerning, and the defense has repeatedly struggled to finish possessions.

Those are problems that don't automatically disappear when Lamar returns.

For now, Baltimore's placement reflects two competing realities: a team that has played like a middle-of-the-pack contender over seven weeks, and a roster that the forward-looking model still believes is capable of considerably more.

Biggest Risers: Tampa Bay Makes the Biggest Move

Tampa Bay's climb is the headline, but the Rams deserve attention.

Los Angeles jumped five places to 11th after beating Las Vegas 35-21. The Rams gained 5.68 Efficiency points and now sit just 0.11 points outside the top 10.

DEPI is even more optimistic, ranking the Rams third overall.

That suggests the model still believes Los Angeles has substantial underlying strength, even if its current-season results haven't consistently supported that conclusion.

Detroit's improvement is also significant because it came primarily from the defense and special teams rather than another exceptional offensive performance.

Dallas, meanwhile, produced its best result of the season on Monday night.

The Cowboys defeated Philadelphia 38-21, rushing for 204 yards while Dak Prescott threw three touchdown passes. Dallas moved up four places in Efficiency, although its 24th-place position shows how much work remains to repair its season-long profile.

Atlanta's jump is particularly interesting.

Beating San Francisco 29-20 was one of the week's most impressive results, and the Falcons climbed four positions in Efficiency. The Power Index responded even more strongly, moving Atlanta six places from 23rd to 17th.

Pittsburgh also deserves mention after rising three places in Efficiency to 16th. The Steelers gained 3.76 index points and climbed six places in DEPI.

Biggest Fallers: Carolina and Kansas City Take the Biggest Hits

Carolina's seven-place decline was the largest of Week 7.

The Panthers were eighth in Efficiency entering the week, but their 43-13 loss to Tampa Bay exposed problems throughout the team.

Carolina committed three offensive turnovers and allowed five sacks, repeatedly putting its defense in difficult positions.

The Efficiency Index registered deterioration in offense, defense and special teams. That resulted in a 6.62-point decline, easily the largest in the league.

The Chiefs suffered the second-largest score decline following their loss in Seattle. New England was the other team to fall out of the top 10, dropping three positions after losing in Chicago.

One additional team deserves attention even though its ranking movement wasn't particularly dramatic.

Las Vegas slipped just two places, from 27th to 29th, but its Efficiency score fell 5.18 points. That's nearly as large a deterioration as Kansas City's.

Rank movement can sometimes disguise significant changes in performance. When several teams are clustered close together in the ratings, a considerable score decline might translate into only a modest change in position.

That is why the underlying index movement matters as much as the arrows.

Where DEPI Disagrees With the Week 8 Betting Market

The most interesting application of the Power Index is comparing its projected margins against the market.

DEPI calculates expected scoring margins using the difference between team ratings, adjusted for home-field advantage. The current fitted home-field adjustment is approximately 1.54 points. Here are several of the largest discrepancies heading into Week 8.

Matchup / Market Spread / DEPI Spread / Difference Model Preference

Chargers at Rams LAR -6.5 LAR -10.8 4.33 pts Rams

Bears at Seahawks SEA -3.5 CHI -0.3 3.81 pts Bears

Cardinals at Cowboys DAL -6.0 DAL -3.2 2.84 pts Cardinals

Panthers at Packers GB -3.5 GB -1.1 2.43 pts Panthers

Patriots at Dolphins NE -7.5 NE -5.1 2.40 pts Dolphins

Market snapshot: October 27, 2026, at 9:26 a.m. ET. These comparisons assume each team's default starting quarterback. Spreads and availability can change, and a model discrepancy is not necessarily a profitable betting opportunity.

Tuesday October 27, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4447

message to the ravens: more tackles, less bravado

I woke up this morning and established a goal.

All I really wanted to do for you and those who read the website is begin the day with a friendly voice.

A companion. Unobtrusive.

Hopefully I fulfill that goal this morning. I mean, I want to do it every morning, but it today it's particularly important.

Tonight, I get the privilege of seeing one of my all-time favorite bands, Rush, at the arena in Washington DC.

Other than missing my train to DC later this morning, I don't know how my day can otherwise get spoiled. I'm meeting my best friend from high school early this afternoon, we have a great dinner played at an awesome restaurtant near the arena, and we're both massive Rush fans.

Geddy Lee, Alex Lifeson and the band's new drummer, Anika Nilles, will take the stage just after 7:30 pm. I've intentionally NOT looked at the setlist from Sunday night's show in DC. I already know they were great. I saw social media clips with folks talking about how incredible the show was. But I have steered away from the rest of the details. I want tonight to be totally unexpected.

Do you remember where you were when you first heard whomever it was that turned out to be your favorite, or one of your favorite, bands or artists?

I remember exactly where I was the first time I ever heard Rush. I even know the song I heard.

I was in the parking lot of the old Benfield Pines ice rink, with a guy on my team named Darryl Thomas. It was sometime just before Christmas and we were playing in a tournament at Benfield on a Saturday. Between games, Darryl and I sat in his brother's car and his Darryl popped in the Hemispheres cassette. The song was "Circumstances".

A week later, I think had purchased every Rush album up until that point, six if I recall, including Hemispheres, and was devoted to the band from that year (1978) until today.

I've seen them probably 12 or 13 times, I believe. I was trying to count up the shows and venues last night. Four times in Baltimore. Three times times in DC. Once in Hershey, PA. Once in Philadelphia. Twice at Madison Square Garden. Once in Buffalo. I can't recall, but I'm fairly certain I also saw them at the Meadowlands in New Jersey once. But that might have been Pearl Jam.

Anyway, none of us are getting any older.

Do things in your life that make you happy and do you things in your life that remind you how blessed you are through God's grace.

I'm experiencing both of those tonight.

Ruuuusssssssshhhhhhhhh!

---

I thought we could have some fun today at the expense of Jesse Minter. Except, honestly, I'm not sure it's really "fun". It will just be an exercise in he said/he said.

We're going to take Jesse Minter's quotes from yesterday's press conference and I'm going to tell you, I think, what John Harbaugh would have said under the exact same circumstances. I'm not telling you one of them is better than the other. You can judge whatever you want about either of them.

I'm just going to tell you what I think John would have said when asked the questions Jesse was asked on Monday.

You tell me if I'm right or not.

Q. What is the optimism level as far as QB Lamar Jackson being able to play in Buffalo?

Minter: "I think, again, Lamar [Jackson]'s working his butt off to be back and be out there. I think he was able to get in a little bit of work obviously towards the end of last week, and so I think he'll be in a decent spot, but we'll know a lot more on Wednesday."

Harbaugh: "I appreciate the question. And I know you have to ask it. But we're just getting around to putting yesterday's game to bed and now we're getting focused on the Bills. I haven't seen Lamar today. I know he was floating around here this morning but I didn't actually see him. So we'll have more on that for you on Wednesday."

Q."You guys downgraded QB Lamar Jackson on Saturday. Typically, that's something you don't see too often, unless it's a road team for a player who doesn't travel. The CBS broadcast mentioned that he woke up Saturday with some swelling in his ankle. Can you confirm that, and is that what led to shutting it down, at least for Sunday?"

Minter: "No, I'm not going to speak really on the details of anybody's injury. So, look, if Lamar's able to play, is healthy enough to play and play the way that obviously we feel like he needs to play, then he will play."

Harbaugh: (Grimaces and laughs at the same time) "I'm not going to go into that. You guys know that by now. It doesn't serve me any purpose to stand up here and talk about someone who didn't play in the game. If you want to talk about the game we just played, I'm all for it. Bring it on. But I'm not going to comment on what happened with Lamar or didn't happen with Lamar. We went with the players who were the healthiest."

Q. "Not specifically about that injury, but it was described as you guys being shocked that QB Lamar Jackson wasn't able to play. Is that a mischaracterization, or what would you say to that?"

Minter: "I would say a little bit, but again, we had Saturday that – [Lamar Jackson] got a little bit of work in on Friday, came in Saturday and felt it out, saw where it's at, saw how it's going, how it felt, how it responded, and then what happened – happened."

(Editor's note: That's the early clubhouse leader for worst quote of the year from Minter. Read it again. Read it 10 times. See if it EVER makes sense. Hint: It won't.)

Harbaugh: shakes his head from side to side "You know, I not even going there. Shocked... What's "shocked" even mean? We try to get everyone out on the practice field on Wednesday every week and we evaluate them from there. Lamar went out there on Wednesday and did some things, but I don't know if we ever determined -- I don't even know what that question means. Shocked about what? Next question."

Q. "Right now, you guys are first in the league in point differential in the first half and last in the second half. I know you talk a lot about momentum, but how do you feel about the adjustments as the game goes on? Do you feel like you guys are making the right adjustments?"

Minter: "Well, I would say the numbers would say that we're not fully where we want to be in that regard, and that's just based off the facts of the score differentials. So, all three phases [need to be] doing a better job. Then also just – I think it's all of us. So, it's taking ownership of what we're doing offensively, defensively, special teams, how we're coming out of the half, what we're doing at halftime, how we're doing in the third quarter, what adjustments the other team's making, what are we ready for [and] what do we kind of think that they're going to do. I think all those things go into being better in the second half, and [it's] stuff that we'll constantly chase. But to your point, the numbers would say no, that we haven't done a great job of that, and that's something we'll focus on."

Harbaugh: "I'm not a big comparison guy. Comparing this half to that half? What's the point? There's a lot of things that go into that. Injuries, who gets the ball first. It's not quite as simple as just putting the numbers up and saying, 'Let's compare what you do during certain parts of the game.' The one thing I'm really excited about is how we start off the games. Now you want to talk about something that gets me excited, there it is. We're locked in right from the start. I think we're first or second in the league in points scored in the first ten minutes of the game. So I'm just really looking at that and trying to put that kind of production into the rest of the 50 minutes, you know?"

Q. "Do you have to have a dialogue with QB Lamar Jackson about what he is going to communicate to the outside world about what his status is?"

Minter: "No, I think when Lamar [Jackson] and our training staff and our doctors and myself and everybody in the organization feel that it's best for him to be on the field, that he'll be on the field, and everybody will know when that is."

Harbaugh: "A dialogue? You mean do we coach him up on what to say? (laughs) No. We don't do that. We handle the injury report here and Lamar knows that. As far as discussing it with him, the trainers will have ongoing conversations with him throughout the week. You know? How's it feeling? Need more treatment? Or less treatment, even. You know, that's a thing, too, now. We don't want to overtreat these injuries. It's complicated."

Q. Is it fair to say you just simply don't know when QB Lamar Jackson is going to be back at this point?"

Minter: "I think we'll definitely know for sure on Wednesday kind of what it's looking like."

Harbaugh: (shakes his head from side to side) "I don't know what else I can say about Lamar that hasn't already been said, guys. You're pressing me for information that isn't available. This isn't how we go about it here. Lamar's status will be on the injury report on Wednesday. Obviously last week he practiced a few days, but we never waved on his status. He was always questionable. We followed the league guidelines, like we always do. Other than that, I can't say anything else."

Q. "Just curious, you've been around Lamar now for about 8 months or so. How would you describe him?"

Minter: "He's a rebel and a runner. He's a signal turning green. He's a restless young romantic, wants to run the big machine. He's got a problem with his poisons, but you know he'll find a cure. He's cleaning up the systems, to keep his nature pure. He's got to make his own mistakes and learn to mend the mess he makes. He's old enough to know what's right and young enough not to choose it. He's noble enough to win the world but weak enough to lose it. He's a new world man. He's a radio receiver, tuned to factories and farms. He's a writer and ranger and a young boy bearing arms. He's got a problem with his powers, his weapons on patrol. He's got to walk a fine line, and keep his self-control. He's not concerned with yesterday. He knows constant change is here today. He's noble enough to know what's right, but weak enough not to choose it. He's wise enough to win the world, but fool enough to lose it."

Harbaugh: "Describe him? I'm not really into doing that. He's a football player. That's what Lamar is. He's a football player. And a dang good one, too. Can I say 'dang' here? (laughs) I can? OK, well, he's a dang good football player."

---

a ravens poem

There's a lot to unpack from Sunday's beating at the hands of Cincinnati.

Overall a few things stood out to me against the Bengals. They were all bad.

Mainly, it's about the defense. Or lackthereof. Like, are we gonna tackle somebody soon or no?

Sadly, this is an issue that has plagued the Ravens for a while. It goes back a few years.

And it seems to be a widespread thing. It's not one or two guys. It's sorta-kinda everyone.

What worries me is the games aren't getting any easier, starting with this Sunday in Buffalo.

You play who is in front of you, yes. But the schedule is getting harder, not easier.

Every game matters now. You're at 3 losses. 7 is probably the most you can afford to lose. Right?

Real talk? I probably let Lamar sit out the Buffalo game and get him back healthy for Jacksonville.

Pressing him to return against the Bills doesn't make much sense, right?

Let him rest one more week and then bring him in 100% against the Jags.

Even splitting those games would be fine. 5-4 at the 9-game mark is acceptable.

Alas, the natives will be restless if the Ravens go up there on Sunday and get beat.

So, maybe playing Lamar in Buffalo is for the best, after all.

Every game he doesn't play just creates more questions and tension on the streets.

Monday October 26, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4446

pretty hard to defend that (too soon?)

Say, did you hear the one about the football team that blanked their opponent 13-0 in the first half and then got outscored 35-0 in the second half?

What else can you do at this point except try to humor your way around that throttling the Ravens took on Sunday?

It was a tale of two halves, obviously.

Cincinnati couldn't do anything right in the first half and the Ravens couldn't do anything right in the second half.

If you look up the definition of "Strange Football Game", you'll see yesterday's boxscore.

If the historians are correct, Sunday's game in Baltimore marked only the third time in NFL history a team led by 13 or more points at half and lost the game outright by 20 points or more. It also happened in 1950 and 1941.

So the Ravens sorta-kinda made history yesterday. But not in a good way.

Of course, the Bengals had a pretty big advantage. His name was Joe Burrow.

In baseball terms, Cincinnati's starting pitcher was 18-6 with a 2.94 ERA. Baltimore countered with a guy who was 8-11 with a 5.14 ERA.

Advantage: Cincinnati.

But the Ravens did enough in the opening 30 minutes to look like they might steal a huge division game from their division foes. Tyler Huntley was, at the very least, "efficient enough" in the first half and the Ravens were pretty much in total control, 13-0, at the intermission.

The second 30 minutes? One of the worst halves of football the Ravens have authored in the last decade.

And at home, no less.

Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins had a field day in the second half. Marlon Humphrey, Nate Wiggins and the rest of the secondary were tortured for two quarters, as the Ravens fell, 35-13, and are now 0-2 in the division and 4-3 overall.

Oh, and they head to Buffalo next Sunday.

Hopefully they get Lamar Jackson back. But we all know that's not a guarantee.

Jesse Minter and Anthony Weaver were the main goats on social media and post-game radio, but the reality is the most obvious common demoninator between these teams that have blown leads over the years is, of course, the players themselves.

Roquan Smith has been involved in a lot of them.

So, too, has Kyle Hamilton.

And Marlon Humphrey has been in the middle of many of them as well.

Nate Wiggins? He's seen a few of them also.

It's not all on the secondary, mind you. The defensive line has to do their part. The edge rushers have to create pressure. But the same general group of players has been around for a while now, getting exposed on the regular during all of these second half meltdowns.

Anyway...we can sit around today and denigrate the team, the coaches, the players and so on.

That loss to New Orleans in week two was terrible.

Losing to the Browns was awful.

Getting run out of the gym by the Bengals was a kick to the jewels.

It's not good. There's no sugar coating it. Everyone thought John Harbaugh sucked because his defense couldn't hold serve with the game on the line. Jesse Minter hasn't been able to do it, either.

Minter will, quite naturally, get a "pass" for the 2026 season, no matter what happens. He will get two years, at a minimum, before the fan base turns on him en masse.

That said, this "can't hold a lead" stuff has to get fixed soon or he's going to start drawing the wrath of more than just the fans. We know the players will never fully take the blame. But they'll do their best to shift the criticism in the direction of their head coach and his underlings.

But I'm here to tell you something.

I want all of you in the back of the room to move up front so I don't have to shout.

.

.

.

.

Everyone ready? Listen up.

.

.

.

The Ravens will be better when Lamar returns.

I know that's the "duh" statement of the day, but it's true. They have to get Lamar back and healthy.

Now, will Lamar change everything? I don't think so. He can't tackle and defend the pass on defense, after all.

But with Lamar healthy and back on the field, the Ravens always stand a puncher's chance.

Will they beat the Bills next Sunday in Buffalo if Lamar plays? I don't know.

But I do know this: If Tyler Huntley plays next Sunday (because Lamar is out), the Ravens are definitely not winning.

With Lamar, they have a chance to win.

With Huntley, they have no chance.

Not against Buffalo, anyway.

And therein lies the issue. As we've always known, the Ravens can get away with a week or two of Tyler Huntley at the helm, like they did this year when he played the second half of the home win over Tennessee and then helped the Ravens beat the Falcons the following week in Atlanta.

But the last two games have been a mismatch.

The Ravens wouldn't have lost 13-10 and 35-13 if Lamar would have played. You can make book on that.

So, while it's not all warm and fuzzy right now, if the Ravens can somehow get to the 9-game mark at 5-4, and providing Lamar returns and is 100% and totally "fine", Jesse Minter's team can still get to 10 or 11 wins and snag the AFC North.

But a lot has to fall into place for the Ravens in order for that to happen.

More than anything, they have to get Lamar back. Pronto.

Think of it like this:

It's 1981. You're going to see AC/DC at the height of their run as one of the world's best bands.

The week of the show you're attending, it's announced that Angus Young, the band's legendary lead guitarist, will miss the show with an illness. But rather than just cancel the show, AC/DC brings in a second-tier guitarist. He's good and all. But he's no Angus Young.

You go to the show. They play all the hits. "Back in Black" was awesome. So was "You Shook Me All Night Long".

But here's the question: Did you really see AC/DC?

And was the show as good with the back-up guitarist as it would have been with Angus Young out there on stage?

What you've seen for the last three weeks is the Ravens without "their" Angus Young. You saw the Ravens. Some of the football was good enough. But without Lamar, you're not really seeing the Ravens.

When they get Lamar back, you'll see the real Ravens.

That team was 3-1, remember. Then Lamar got hurt and now they're 4-3 and, in reality, very fortunate to not be 3-4.

I'm not going to bail on them just yet.

I know the defense is flimsy.

We've addressed that here on numerous occasions.

But they're going to win a lot of games with Lamar at quarterback, flimsy defense or not.

They just need to get the band back together and things will start to turn around.

However...........

Hopefully they're still in the playoff picture when the band is together once again.

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

first and five: new coaches, same old collapses

Five immediate takeaways from the Ravens' disastrous 35-13 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

There is a simple fact in the modern NFL.

If you have one of THE GUYS at QB, you have a chance to win it every year.

And you do everything you can to keep them around. The downside is when your elite QB on a big contract gets hurt, you are screwed.

Maybe if you have an all time defense you can still compete. But most teams are not going to beat other good teams without their starting QB. This Ravens team is no exception, and these past few weeks have laid bare all the cracks that Lamar covers over.

But if the Ravens think getting Lamar back will magically solve all their problems, they may be in for a rude awakening in the coming weeks.

For 30 minutes Sunday, the Ravens looked like a team perfectly capable of beating the Cincinnati Bengals without Lamar Jackson.

They dominated the first half, outgaining Cincinnati 258-59, converting eight of 11 third downs and holding the ball for more than 22 minutes.

Joe Burrow had just 43 passing yards. Tee Higgins didn't have a catch. The Ravens led 13-0, and if anything, the margin should have been considerably larger.

Then halftime happened.

The Bengals came out after intermission and scored touchdowns on five consecutive possessions.

Burrow became virtually unstoppable. The Ravens couldn't move the football, couldn't tackle and couldn't get anywhere near the quarterback. Cincinnati outscored them 35-0 over the final 30 minutes.

Thirty-five to nothing. In one half. At home. Against a division rival.

Somehow, the Ravens turned one of their most impressive first halves of the season into perhaps their most embarrassing defeat.

1. Without Lamar, the Ravens are playing a different sport

Tyler Huntley deserves credit for keeping Baltimore competitive at times. He led an impressive comeback in Atlanta and played one of the better first halves of his career Sunday, throwing for 215 yards before halftime. He finished with a career-high 298 passing yards.

But he's not Lamar Jackson.

The entire structure of the offense changes without Lamar's running ability. Defenses no longer need to account for an additional ball carrier on every snap. Edge defenders can attack Derrick Henry more aggressively. Linebackers can flow toward the football without worrying about Jackson pulling it away and escaping around the corner.

And when protection breaks down, Huntley cannot consistently turn a defensive victory into a 20-yard gain the way Lamar can.

The result is an offense with considerably less margin for error. That margin gets even smaller when the offensive line is falling apart.

By Friday, I had become convinced Jackson wasn't playing against Cincinnati. His comments were not those of a quarterback who sounded ready to take the field Sunday. He openly acknowledged that running still caused pain and that he couldn't help the team if he couldn't move normally.

I even made a small wager on Cincinnati because I thought the odds still reflected too much optimism about Lamar's availability.

Yet the Ravens continued to treat his status as a legitimate game-time decision. He practiced on a limited basis throughout the week, was officially listed as questionable Friday, and then was ruled out Saturday afternoon.

I understand the competitive advantage of making Cincinnati prepare for two quarterbacks. There is a reason teams don't volunteer more injury information than the league requires. But this approach does Lamar absolutely no favors.

When the organization spends the week suggesting he might play, only to declare him unavailable the day before the game, it creates the impression that Jackson is backing out of an opportunity to play. His comments Friday suggested something entirely different. He was still dealing with an ankle that wouldn't allow him to function like himself.

That is not a question of toughness. It's a question of whether the Ravens want their most important player limping around the pocket, unable to use the very abilities that make him exceptional.

And that brings us to next week’s showdown with Josh Allen and the Bills.

The two quarterbacks are often held up against each other as the two challengers to Mahomes spot in the hierarchy. Unfortunately, at this point you have to concede that Allen has the better chance to take that crown, simply because of his durability.

That is not to question Lamar’s toughness or anything of that nature, but the simple fact is that availability matters and Allen has been on the field more in his career.

Allen hasn't missed a regular-season start since his rookie season in 2018. Jackson has repeatedly lost meaningful stretches of seasons to injuries. That difference matters enormously when your franchise's championship ambitions depend upon having one of the best quarterbacks in football.

The Ravens may face an especially difficult decision in Buffalo next Sunday.

Do they rush Lamar back to try to fix the offense even if he’s not 100% healthy and confident in his ankle? They have a short-week looming with a Thursday night game against Jacksonville to follow.

I wouldn't rush Lamar back for Buffalo if he still cannot move properly. The Ravens other problems make it unlikely they can beat Bills with a compromised Lamar anyway, and having him suffer another setback with a Thursday game immediately afterward would be disastrous.

It is better to get Lamar fully right before getting him back on the field so the team can make the run they need when he returns. There are reasons to believe they can be among the top offenses in the league with Lamar in peak form, and that should be enough to make a push for the playoffs even if they drop the next game or two.

If he can function normally against Jacksonville, fine. Otherwise, the longer break before the November 16 game against the Chargers offers another opportunity to get him healthy and make a run through the second half of the season.

At 4-3 and 0-2 in the division, the Ravens cannot afford to keep losing games. But they also cannot afford to turn a three-week injury into a three-month problem.

Their season still depends upon Lamar.

That doesn't mean every other problem disappears when he returns.

2. Minter's defense has to be better than this

The lack of in-game adjustments on both sides of the ball are starting to become a concern. Declan Doyle at least has the excuse of being stuck with a backup quarterback. The defensive collapses are much more puzzling.

It's seven games into Jesse Minter’s first season as a head coach. That's obviously not enough to make a definitive judgment about his coaching ability, but it is enough to start evaluating what we've actually watched.

And what we've watched is a defense that frequently looks excellent early in games before becoming completely helpless once opponents begin finding answers.

Sunday was the most extreme example yet.

The Ravens were terrific defensively in the first half. Cincinnati managed just 59 yards and couldn't get anything going against Baltimore's pressure looks and coverage disguises. Burrow completed only six of 12 passes for 43 yards. Higgins was completely erased from the game.

Then Cincinnati made adjustments.

The Bengals began operating more efficiently on early downs, using their conventional passing concepts and getting the football to their best receivers. They improved protection, prevented the Ravens from creating obvious passing situations and eventually started attacking downfield.

Burrow completed 16 of 18 passes for 249 yards and four touchdowns after halftime, producing a perfect 158.3 passer rating.

He wasn't pressured once in the second half, according to the Bengals' postgame statistics. That's almost impossible to comprehend after what we watched in the first half.

Higgins finished with six receptions for 148 yards, including gains of 44 and 43 yards. Cincinnati generated 298 yards and 18 first downs after halftime.

The Ravens defense was completely dismantled while the game was still competitive.

Minter and defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver have some legitimate personnel concerns.

Jaylinn Hawkins was unavailable, forcing the Ravens to alter their safety rotation and Roquan Smith also suffered a knee injury in the fourth quarter.

But Hawkins' absence doesn't explain why the Ravens were so effective in the first half and so terrible in the second. Smith's injury certainly doesn't explain the two touchdowns Cincinnati scored in the third quarter.

The players deserve plenty of criticism. Hamilton missed opportunities to stop plays in the backfield. Trenton Simpson had a chance to sack Burrow and couldn't finish. Tackling and coverage deteriorated throughout the half.

Minter and Weaver were brought here to fix exactly those problems.

We spent the offseason imagining what Minter could accomplish with Kyle Hamilton, Roquan Smith, Nnamdi Madubuike, Trey Hendrickson and an exceptionally talented collection of defensive backs. We weren't expecting perfection, but we certainly expected a defense capable of handling a few injuries without completely falling apart.

We hoped Minter could be another version of Mike Macdonald. One of the things that made Macdonald exceptional was his ability to recognize what offenses were doing, change the defensive picture and make life progressively more difficult as games developed.

With Minter, we're increasingly seeing the opposite. The opening plan works then the opponent adjusts and the Ravens can’t find an answer.

Maybe the biggest issue is execution. Maybe the injuries are forcing Minter to simplify his coverage. Maybe some of the younger defenders simply aren't ready to handle everything being asked of them.

But when the same thing keeps happening against different opponents, eventually the explanation has to extend beyond individual players missing tackles.

Cincinnati's halftime adjustments weren't particularly revolutionary. Burrow said afterward that the Bengals returned to their basic concepts, protected better and focused on getting Chase and Higgins the football.

The Ravens had no response.

3. Do we owe John Harbaugh an apology?

Remember how many of us blamed John Harbaugh for the Ravens' seemingly endless collection of second-half collapses?

Bad adjustments. Conservative coaching. Poor clock management. An inability to put teams away.

Well, Harbaugh is gone.

The collapses are not.

In fact, this season has taken the problem to an almost comical extreme.

Through seven games, the Ravens have outscored their opponents 118-53 in the first half, a remarkable 65-point advantage.

After halftime, including overtime in Atlanta, they have been outscored 114-51.

That is a 128-point swing between their first-half and second-half scoring margins. The Ravens have now been outscored 48-0 in the second half of their last two games, both against AFC North opponents. They haven't scored a single point after halftime since their dramatic comeback in Atlanta two weeks ago.

This is becoming an organizational specialty nobody ordered.

There is obviously a significant Lamar Jackson caveat. The offense is not nearly as dangerous without him, and Huntley has limitations that eventually become apparent when defenses begin adjusting their approach.

But this problem existed before Lamar got hurt.

The Ravens squandered an eight-point second-half lead against New Orleans with Jackson on the field. They also allowed Dallas to erase an 11-point advantage before Lamar and Tyler Loop rescued them in Brazil.

Minter acknowledged after Sunday's loss that the Ravens have become too dependent upon momentum, playing well when things are going their way and allowing mistakes to snowball when opponents begin making plays.

He's right.

The question is why a coaching staff responsible for managing those situations has been unable to stop the bleeding.

We blamed Harbaugh for years because the team repeatedly failed to protect leads, make adjustments and finish games. Watching those same problems continue under an entirely different staff should probably make us reconsider whether the old coach deserved all the blame.

Harbaugh certainly made mistakes. Some of the criticism was justified, but perhaps the problems were never exclusively about Harbaugh. Maybe there are deeper issues with the personnel, decision-making and veteran leadership on this team.

Maybe the organization was too quick to assume a new voice would solve problems that have persisted through multiple seasons and different coordinators.

Whatever the explanation, the standard hasn't changed.

The Ravens didn't replace an 18-year head coach to become a team that plays excellent football for 30 minutes.

They made the change because they believed a new staff could take an enormously talented roster further.

Right now, they're getting many of the same failures with a different person standing on the sideline.

4. The offensive line is falling apart, and the offense isn't helping itself

The Ravens finally had something resembling their preferred offensive line Sunday, for less than a quarter.

Cam Jurgens made his Baltimore debut at center, allowing Vega Ioane to move back to right guard after his surprisingly effective three-game stretch filling in at center.

Then Ioane suffered a knee injury after 16 offensive snaps and was replaced by Emery Jones Jr. With Andrew Vorhees already unavailable, the Ravens were once again improvising along the interior offensive line.

At this point, keeping five healthy linemen on the field for an entire afternoon would qualify as a significant achievement.

Ioane's injury is particularly concerning because he has been the Ravens' best interior lineman this season. His versatility helped stabilize the offense during the center injury crisis, and his move back to guard was supposed to provide another upgrade.

Instead, the Ravens are right back where they started.

The immediate effect of Ioane's injury is difficult to isolate without reviewing the individual blocking assignments. Baltimore continued to move the ball for much of the first half even after he departed, including two lengthy drives that consumed more than 17 minutes combined.

But the running game was an absolute disaster.

Derrick Henry finished with just 45 yards on 17 carries, averaging a miserable 2.6 yards per attempt. The Ravens managed only three rushing first downs all afternoon.

According to PerThirtySix's play-by-play analysis, the Ravens averaged -0.39 expected points added (EPA) per designed run, compared with +0.09 EPA per Huntley dropback.

In other words, every time the Ravens called a conventional running play, they were losing nearly four-tenths of an expected point on average. Meanwhile, the passing game, despite being operated by a backup quarterback behind a makeshift offensive line, was actually generating positive value.

That's an extraordinary imbalance for an offense built around Derrick Henry.

For comparison, Cincinnati averaged -0.11 EPA per designed run and an outstanding +0.59 EPA per dropback. The Bengals also finished with a 56.9% offensive success rate compared with Baltimore's 41.5%, and doubled the Ravens in explosive plays, four to two.

Doyle has to find ways to create efficient rushing opportunities even when Lamar isn't available. We've already seen him do those things successfully this season. His creative use of Justice Hill against Atlanta was a perfect example.

Sunday, none of it worked consistently enough.

Still, the offensive line doesn't deserve all the blame for Sunday's offensive performance.

The procedural mistakes were infuriating as well.

The Ravens committed 10 penalties for 57 yards, including five pre-snap penalties before halftime. Cincinnati was flagged just once all afternoon.

How many times are we going to watch the Ravens create a manageable short-yardage situation, then immediately turn it into something more difficult with a false start or delay of game?

At some point, that's not bad luck. It's bad preparation and bad execution.

The final meaningful red-zone opportunity came as the Ravens trailed 14-13 early in the fourth quarter. Facing fourth-and-2 at the Cincinnati 12, Doyle called a pass intended for rookie Josh Cuevas that fell incomplete after contact disrupted the route.

I don't have a problem with going for it. The Ravens needed to regain control of the game, and keeping the football with a chance to score a touchdown was perfectly reasonable.

But the bigger question is why an offense with Derrick Henry, a creative coordinator and a collection of capable receivers keeps struggling to gain one or two yards in the most important situations.

Doyle has to develop an offense capable of functioning when the defense knows they need one yard and is determined not to surrender it.

5. Zay Flowers deserves better

The one player I have almost nothing negative to say about is Zay Flowers.

Again Flowers was phenomenal Sunday, finishing with eight receptions for 137 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets.

He accounted for nearly half of Huntley's passing yardage and produced the only touchdown, a 48-yard screen in the first quarter.

The touchdown was a terrific example of what Doyle has done well with Flowers this season.

Rather than simply asking him to beat coverage on a conventional route, the Ravens created an opportunity to get him the football in space. Devontez Walker, Roger Rosengarten and John Simpson delivered excellent blocks, and Flowers did the rest.

That's how you maximize an explosive receiver.

Flowers has always been dangerous after the catch. What has changed under Doyle is how consistently the offense creates opportunities for him to receive the football with defenders already at a disadvantage.

We've seen that approach repeatedly produce big plays this season, but Sunday also demonstrated how the offense can undermine that success.

Flowers had six catches for 120 yards before halftime.

Then he didn't touch the football again until the fourth quarter.

How does that happen?

The Ravens had one receiver consistently creating problems for Cincinnati. Their offense was struggling to generate anything after halftime. And somehow their best playmaker essentially disappeared from the game plan during the stretch when the Bengals were taking control.

Huntley was asked about it afterward and didn't offer much of an explanation beyond working through his reads.

Maybe Cincinnati changed its coverage to take Flowers away. That's something worth examining when the film becomes available. But Doyle also has a responsibility to manufacture opportunities for the best player on his offense, especially when his backup quarterback is struggling.

There should be ways to get Flowers involved without requiring Huntley to make difficult throws against tight coverage. Flowers shouldn't need to wait for the perfect coverage matchup to get the football.

He's rapidly becoming one of the best receivers in the NFL, and the Ravens are wasting too many of his performances.

The encouraging part is that the offseason investment in Flowers looks increasingly justified.

He's creating explosive plays, producing with different quarterbacks and becoming the centerpiece of the passing game that Baltimore envisioned.

The discouraging part is that his individual excellence increasingly seems disconnected from the team's ability to win football games.

Flowers has done his job.

The Ravens need to start doing theirs.

The season isn't over, but something has to change

The Ravens are 4-3. There are still 10 games remaining, and a healthy Lamar Jackson is capable of changing the outlook of this team in a hurry.

Getting him back would immediately make the offense more dangerous, give Henry more favorable rushing opportunities and allow Doyle to use the full range of his playbook.

But Lamar's return is not going to fix everything.

It won't suddenly teach defenders how to tackle in space. It won't make the defensive coaching staff better at responding to halftime adjustments. It won't stop false starts or repair an offensive line that seems to lose another starter every week.

And it certainly won't explain how a defense talented enough to completely shut down Joe Burrow for 30 minutes could then allow 35 unanswered points.

The Ravens are now 0-2 in the AFC North, with Buffalo looming next Sunday and a difficult stretch of games ahead.

The division is still very much in play, but they have already wasted two opportunities to establish an early advantage against its closest competitors.

At some point, the Ravens have to start looking like a Championship contender for a full game instead of just a half.

This roster was built to compete for a Super Bowl. The new coaching staff was hired to eliminate the recurring weaknesses that prevented the previous regime from getting there.

Seven games into the new era, those weaknesses look as bad as ever.

Maybe Lamar returns, the injuries settle down and Minter finally figures out how to keep this defense functioning after halftime.

There's still time.

But if the Ravens are waiting for Lamar Jackson to save them from all of their problems, they're going to be waiting for a lot more than his ankle to heal.

	#DMD GAME DAY Week 7 Sunday — October 25, 2026 Issue #4445
	Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens 1:00 PM EDT M&T Bank Stadium Baltimore, MD Spread: Bengals (-3)

need a varsity performance today

OK, we're both surprised and not surprised at the news from Owings Mills yesterday.

I mean, if you've watched Lamar over the years, you know he's never playing until he feels like he's 100%. The Ravens have known that, privately, for four seasons now.

But there was a thought, I guess, that he was back to 100% given that he practiced -- albeit "lightly" -- Wednesday, Thursday and Friday of this week.

Alas, he's not playing today vs. the Bengals.

They're still calling it a "sprained ankle".

We can now only assume those mid-week practices and quick press conferences were all smoke screens to give Cincinnati something to think about and game plan for today.

Jesse Minter and John Harbaugh are cut from some of the same cloth, evidently. And good for them. As I wrote here earlier this week, it's really no one's business if Lamar is playing or not. If Minter has resort to some tom-foolerly to help beat the Bengals today, I'm all for it.

So, with Jackson out for a third straight week, Tyler Huntley gets the ball.

It goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: The Ravens need a big game from Huntley this afternoon. That Huntley we saw in the fourth quarter and overtime in Atlanta? Bring that version of Huntley to the stadium today.

That Huntley we saw stumble and bumble his way through a miserable performance in Cleveland last Sunday? No, no, no.

But the Ravens need more than just a virtuoso performance from Huntley today. They need everyone else to man up as well. You just know Joe Burrow is licking his chops at the thought of going up against a Lamar-less Baltimore team.

Can the Ravens secondary shut down the Bengals high-powered passing game? That's the biggest question now that Lamar is out.

If you want some "by the numbers" stuff, I'll throw out five things that need to happen -- or not happen, as the case might be -- for the Ravens to win today.

The Ravens need at least 3 sacks on Joe Burrow. The best pass defense is a good pass rush. Putting pressure on Burrow is paramount. The Ravens have to get to him at least three times.

No more than one defensive pass interference penalty. I know that's easier said than done, but the Baltimore secondary can't be giving away free "flip the field" yards on penalties. One "spot of the foul" flag is OK. A couple of illegal contact penalties are OK. Those aren't killers, usually, unless they come on third down.

But it's those pass interference penalties that are drive-extenders and game-changers. One is all the Ravens can have today.

At least one defensive interception. The easiest way to rattle Burrow is to pick off a pass early on. One other way to keep him out of the end zone is by forcing Burrow to throw a pick. The Ravens need at least one today.

No more than 100 yards receiving for Ja'Marr Chase. I realize Tee Higgins is also a threat, but Chase is their bread and butter.

If he runs up one of those 12-catch, 170 yard days, the Ravens are probably cooked. They can't have Chase run amok on their secondary like he tends to do. 8 catches for 74 yards? That's fine. But if you start giving up 140, 150 or 170 yards to Chase, you're in trouble.

And no more than two completions for Burrow of over 25 yards. A couple of 15 or 20 yarders are OK. Burrow and Chase aren't going to be completely shut down. But the Ravens can't be giving up four or five completions of more than 25 yards. Those big plays are a recipe for disaster. Two is the max.

There is still work to be done offensively, of course, but I don't see Baltimore winning a 38-34 shootout today the way I might see it if Lamar would have played.

This one, in order for the Ravens to win, has to be more like 20-17.

And, I'm sorry, I hope I'm wrong here. I hope I'm dead-red wrong.

I don't see the Ravens winning today with a fully healthy Cincinnati offense and a Huntley-led Ravens team.

It's close for a half because Baltimore isn't going to lay down and roll over at home, and the Ravens defense actually does their part by forcing Cincy into four field goals, but the second half tells the story as the Bengals stretch a 16-10 halftime lead into a 26-17 win to drop Baltimore to 4-3.

---

show me the money, week #6

Teddy Knowsball finally came out on top last week, winning Week #6 with a 3-2 record. Teddy even won his first "Best Bet" wager last week as well.

Molly and I both went 2-3.

I did manage to hit my "Best Bet" to move to 4-2 in that department.

Teddy gets to pick the games this week. Let's see if he can continue to make up ground on Molly and I.

Year to Date

1. Molly - 20-10 (3-3 Best Bet)

2. DF -- 14-16 (4-2 Best Bet)

3. Teddy Knowsball -- 11-19 (1-5 Best Bet)

Today's games:

Pittsburgh at New Orleans, in Paris (+3)

DF -- These games are silly to wager on. No offense to Teddy, but why pick this game for the contest? Come on man. Anyway, I don't know what to make of either team so I'll just go with my hunch that Pittsburgh wins but New Orleans covers in a 26-24 game. Pick: Saints (+3)

Teddy -- Pick: Saints (+3)

Molly -- Pick: Steelers (-3) (Best Bet of the Week)

NY Giants at Houston (-10)

DF -- Wait, what? The Texans are 0-3 at home and they're a 10-point favorite? WTH? I know the Giants stink, but they stink so much they're getting 10 points? Pick: Giants (+10)

Teddy -- Pick: Texans (-10) (Best Bet of the Week)

Molly -- Pick: Giants (+10)

San Francisco at Atlanta (+2.5)

DF: Which Falcons team shows up? It's pretty much that simple. I'm going to go with a hunch that Atlanta plays "up" this week and pulls off the upset. Pick: Falcons (+2.5)

Teddy -- Pick: 49'ers (-2.5)

Molly -- Pick: 49'ers (-2.5)

Green Bay at Detroit (-3.5)

DF -- This is a good game here. I feel like Green Bay has rebounded nicely after that dismal home loss to Atlanta early in the season. I'm still not sure about Detroit. They could win by 21 today or lose by 4. I'm going with the lose by 4 idea. Pick: Packers (+3.5) (Best Bet of the Week)

Teddy -- Pick: Lions (-3.5)

Molly -- Pick: Lions (-3.5)

Cincinnati at Baltimore (+3)

DF -- Unless something happens to Burrow, he and Chase should have their way with the Baltimore secondary. Pick: Bengals (-3)

Teddy -- Pick: Ravens (+3)

Molly -- Pick: Bengals (-3)

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

can ravens solve improved bengals defense?

Ravens–Bengals Week 7 Preview: Lamar Jackson’s uncertain return, Cincinnati’s rebuilt defensive front and a major test for Jesse Minter’s secondary.

Get ready for the game with the Ravens dashboard at: https://dualeights.com/ravens/dashboard/

The Ravens held Cleveland to 13 points last week and still managed to lose.

The defense largely did its job but now faces a much tougher test with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins coming to Baltimore.

The Ravens can’t rely on another defensive performance like the one in Cleveland. Burrow is playing some of the most efficient football in the league, the Bengals have two outstanding receivers, and Cincinnati is coming off its bye with an extra week to prepare.

The Ravens are 4-2, the Bengals are 3-2, and the AFC North remains unusually crowded.

Cleveland and Pittsburgh are also 4-2, and whoever loses Sunday in Baltimore will fall to 0-2 in division play.

There is still plenty of season remaining, but these are exactly the games that determine whether December becomes a fight for home-field advantage or another desperate attempt to make the playoffs.

And the Ravens will be forced to play without Lamar for the third consecutive week.

Fortunately, Cincinnati has some defensive weaknesses that appear particularly well suited to what the Ravens can do offensively. Unfortunately, the Bengals have also rebuilt their defensive front into one of the most disruptive in football.

That creates an interesting matchup. The Ravens may have a legitimate advantage attacking the edges of Cincinnati’s defense, but they’ll have to survive everything happening in the middle to exploit it.

1. Preparing for another week without Lamar

Lamar Jackson returned to practice this week after missing the last two games with a high ankle sprain, but it was announced on Saturday that he is OUT and will not play today.

So, Tyler Huntley will get the starting nod again for the third straight week, with rookie Joe Fagnano serving as the back-up.

The difference between the two veteran quarterbacks is obviously vast. Lamar and Huntley have completed exactly the same percentage of their passes this season: 70.8%.

But Lamar is averaging an NFL-best 10.1 yards per attempt, while Huntley is averaging just 6.0.

That 4.1-yard difference is enormous.

Lamar forces defenses to protect every part of the field. His ability to attack vertically prevents safeties from consistently creeping toward the line of scrimmage, while his running threat creates another defender that opponents must account for on virtually every snap.

Huntley is mobile enough to contribute to the running game, but defenses are considerably more comfortable challenging him to throw beyond the first level.

We watched that play out against Cleveland.

The Ravens generated 111 yards on their first two possessions and just 124 on their final nine. Once the Browns adjusted to the running game and short passing attack, Baltimore had no convincing response.

That cannot happen again.

If Huntley starts, Doyle needs an offense that can manufacture explosive plays without relying upon the quarterback to create them individually.

That means motion, misdirection, play-action opportunities and getting Zay Flowers the football with room to run. It also means taking enough intermediate shots that the Bengals cannot simply crowd everything within ten yards of the line of scrimmage.

There is a difference between building a sensible offense around a backup quarterback and building one that gives the defense absolutely nothing to worry about.

Against Cincinnati’s defensive front, the latter would be particularly dangerous.

2. The Bengals fixed their interior defense. The Ravens should attack somewhere else.

Cincinnati spent the offseason rebuilding a defensive front that had become a significant weakness.

The biggest move was trading for Dexter Lawrence, one of football’s premier interior defensive linemen. The Bengals also signed Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe, adding proven talent throughout the front.

The early returns have been impressive.

According to Next Gen Stats, Cincinnati has stopped 23% of opposing rushing attempts for no gain or a loss, compared with just 10.2% last season.

Lawrence has made an enormous difference in the middle. He can occupy multiple blockers, penetrate gaps and disrupt a running play before the back has an opportunity to develop any momentum.

For a Ravens offense that has occasionally struggled to create interior rushing lanes, that is a concerning matchup.

But there is another side to Cincinnati’s defense.

The Bengals have been surprisingly vulnerable when opponents get outside.

Cincinnati has allowed 6.4 yards per carry and +0.17 EPA per play on perimeter runs through five games. Overall, the Bengals allowed 4.5 yards per carry and -0.04 EPA per rush.

Cincinnati’s problems have often occurred outside the defensive tackles, where edge defenders fail to maintain leverage, linebackers take poor pursuit angles and defensive backs struggle to defeat blocks or finish tackles in space.

This is exactly the kind of weakness the Ravens should be equipped to exploit.

Henry remains exceptionally dangerous once he gets moving. He doesn’t need to run directly into Lawrence to punish Cincinnati’s defense. They can use tosses, pulling guards and formations that create room for Henry to accelerate before contact.

Justice Hill offers another option, particularly on outside-zone concepts and misdirection. Flowers can threaten the defense on jet sweeps or simply use his motion to move a defender away from the eventual running lane.

Doyle has already demonstrated a willingness to get creative with his backs. Against Atlanta, he used Hill as the apparent lead blocker in front of Henry before handing Hill the football for a 47- yard gain. He also used Henry on a screen and later deployed him in the Wildcat for a critical two-point conversion.

The common thread was making defenders think they knew where the football was going before showing them something else.

That’s what the Ravens need Sunday.

The goal isn’t to abandon interior rushing entirely. It’s to make Lawrence and Allen defend more than the gaps directly in front of them.

3. Cam Jurgens arrives at exactly the right time. Or the wrong time.

The good news is that the Ravens finally appear ready to field something resembling their intended offensive line.

Cam Jurgens is expected to make his Baltimore debut at center, allowing rookie Vega Ioane to return to right guard. After weeks of injuries, emergency substitutions and inconsistent snaps, the Ravens should finally have a more conventional arrangement across the interior.

The bad news is that Jurgens’ first assignment involves Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen and one of the NFL’s most productive pass rushes.

Cincinnati has generated pressure on 40.4% of opposing dropbacks while blitzing on just 18.2% of defensive snaps. The Bengals don’t need to send extra defenders to disrupt the quarterback. Lawrence and Allen can create interior pressure, while Mafe has already produced 25 pressures off the edge.

When four defenders can consistently pressure the quarterback, the other seven can concentrate on covering receivers. That’s a difficult situation for any offense. It’s especially problematic when the quarterback is reluctant to challenge tight coverage downfield.

First, he is an experienced center who can organize protections, identify defensive fronts and coordinate blocking assignments with the guards. Those responsibilities have been particularly difficult for the Ravens with Ioane learning the position out of necessity.

Second, moving Ioane back to guard should improve the overall configuration of the line. He has demonstrated that he can handle difficult interior opponents, even while playing an unfamiliar position.

Returning him to his natural assignment allows the Ravens to benefit from that ability without simultaneously asking him to manage the entire protection operation. There is no guarantee that the improvement will be immediate.

Jurgens has spent only a short period practicing with these teammates, and communication is as important as individual blocking talent when defenders are attacking both A-gaps or running stunts across the center. A missed assignment against Lawrence can destroy a play before the quarterback finishes his drop.

But the Ravens need more than simply avoiding sacks.

They need clean first-down runs, enough protection for intermediate routes to develop and fewer situations where a penalty or negative play turns a manageable possession into third-and- 11.

The Bengals’ improved defensive front is capable of creating those situations without taking unusual risks.

If Jurgens can stabilize the interior and Ioane can become a reliable presence at guard, the improvement could extend well beyond Sunday.

If not, Cincinnati has the personnel to make a difficult afternoon for Huntley considerably worse.

4. Stopping Chase isn’t enough. They have to stop Burrow.

The Ravens held Cleveland to 13 points last Sunday.

That was encouraging, particularly after the defensive inconsistency we watched throughout September. Trey Hendrickson returned and immediately generated eight pressures and a sack, while Kyle Hamilton and the interior defensive line repeatedly disrupted Cleveland’s offense.

But Joe Burrow is not Deshaun Watson.

Burrow has completed 71.4% of his passes this season for 1,361 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. The Bengals rank among the league’s ten most efficient offenses by EPA per play and have converted half of their third-down opportunities, the second-best rate in the NFL.

That last number should concern anyone who has watched the Ravens this season.

They have repeatedly struggled to finish defensive possessions, even after forcing opponents into obvious passing situations. New Orleans converted eight of 15 third downs. Atlanta converted nine of 17, including four conversions on third-and-10 or longer.

Those weren’t simply isolated mistakes against exceptional quarterbacks. The Ravens frequently allowed short completions to become first downs, failed to finish tackles or gave receivers too much space at precisely the wrong moment.

Burrow is particularly well equipped to exploit those issues.

He doesn’t require Cincinnati to produce an endless collection of explosive plays. He can sustain possessions through quick decisions, accurate intermediate throws and a willingness to challenge even well-positioned defensive backs.

And then there are Chase and Higgins.

Chase has repeatedly punished the Ravens, especially when matched up against Marlon Humphrey.

According to Next Gen Stats, Chase has caught 14 of 21 targets for 318 yards across 83 career tracked matchups with Humphrey. Those aren’t all pure one-on-one coverage assignments, and Humphrey has also recorded two interceptions during those matchups, but the production is difficult to ignore.

Nate Wiggins has performed considerably better in his tracked opportunities against Chase, allowing eight catches on 17 targets for 102 yards.

That suggests Wiggins should receive substantial responsibility against Cincinnati’s biggest receiving threat, but simply assigning Wiggins to Chase doesn’t solve the problem.

Higgins has 423 receiving yards through five games and ranks among the league leaders in explosive receptions. He provides Burrow with another outstanding target capable of winning contested catches along the sideline or finding space between coverage levels.

If the Ravens devote additional safety help to Chase, they risk giving Higgins favorable matchups elsewhere. Mike Gesicki can create similar problems underneath, especially when the Ravens are occupied with protecting the boundaries.

Minter needs to vary his coverage without creating confusion for his own defensive backs.

Cloud coverage toward Chase, changing safety rotations and selectively using Hamilton to disrupt underneath routes all make sense. But the Ravens cannot repeatedly leave defenders isolated against Cincinnati’s receivers and expect them to win every assignment. The pass rush is the other half of the equation.

Hendrickson’s return is enormously important, and facing his former team adds an interesting subplot. But Cincinnati’s offensive tackles have performed well, particularly Amarius Mims, who has allowed pressure on only 4.0% of his pass-blocking snaps according to Next Gen Stats.

Minter needs to create pressure without automatically sending six defenders.

Simulated pressures, late rotations and changing which defenders actually rush can force Burrow to hesitate or make an incorrect protection adjustment while preserving enough coverage behind the rush.

But those tactics only work if the pressure arrives before Burrow finds an open receiver.

The Ravens need to prevent big plays from Chase and Higgins, force longer third downs and actually get off the field when the opportunity arrives.

5. Hawkins is out. Could that actually help the secondary?

Jaylinn Hawkins will miss Sunday’s game with a knee injury, leaving the Ravens without one of the three safeties who have formed the foundation of Minter’s defensive structure.

Normally, losing a starting defensive back before facing Burrow, Chase and Higgins would be an obvious negative, but I’m not entirely convinced that’s the case here.

Hawkins has been the weakest member of the regular secondary rotation, particularly in coverage. Pro Football Focus gives him a 53.1 overall defensive grade and a 47.6 coverage grade through six games, both well below the standard the Ravens should expect from a starting safety.

His run defense has been considerably better, and he does provide experience and familiarity with the scheme. But the coverage concerns are real, including his positioning on the critical late third-down completion to Jerry Jeudy against Cleveland.

There is at least a reasonable argument that getting someone else onto the field could improve the defense.

Of course, that depends on who replaces him.

The simplest solution would be giving Keondre Jackson a larger role as a conventional safety alongside Malaki Starks. That would preserve the flexibility Minter has built around Hamilton, who has aligned in the slot on roughly 33% of his snaps, at linebacker on another 33% and as a traditional safety on only 20%.

Those numbers help explain how the Ravens can play dime defense on 32.4% of its snaps, the second-highest rate in football, without necessarily sacrificing its ability to defend the run.

Hamilton can function almost like a linebacker when the Ravens need him near the line of scrimmage. He can cover tight ends, match up with receivers in the slot, blitz or rotate into deep coverage after the quarterback has already tried to identify the defense.

He also leads NFL defensive backs with seven run stuffs.

I would hate to see the Ravens sacrifice much of that versatility simply because Hawkins is unavailable.

Moving Hamilton into a more conventional deep-safety role is certainly an option. Minter could use Keyon Martin in the slot more often, shift Humphrey inside in certain packages or alter the cornerback rotation with Chidobe Awuzie.

But that creates another problem.

Hamilton is arguably Baltimore’s best defensive weapon, and his impact is greatest when opponents have to account for him near the football. Moving him to the back end makes the defense more conventional and potentially easier to diagnose.

The Ravens spent the offseason imagining all the different ways Minter could deploy Hamilton. It would be disappointing if the entire structure became dependent upon the availability of Jaylinn Hawkins.

Still, trusting a relatively inexperienced replacement against Burrow is not a trivial decision.

Keondre Jackson has barely played a defensive snap this season. K’Von Wallace offers another option, but neither has demonstrated that he can reliably handle the responsibilities Hawkins has been given. One busted coverage against Cincinnati can cost considerably more than a routine missed tackle.

Minter may decide that protecting the back end is more important than preserving Hamilton’s normal role. The ideal solution would be finding enough reliability from Jackson, Wallace or a combination of defensive backs to keep Hamilton doing what he does best.

If the Ravens manage that, Hawkins’ absence might end up being a blessing in disguise.

If they can’t, they could lose some of the flexibility that makes this defense dangerous at exactly the wrong time.

There is another significant defensive absence to consider.

Tavius Robinson suffered a season-ending pectoral injury, removing a player who was quietly having the best season of his career. Robinson leads the Ravens with 3.5 sacks and eight quarterback hits while playing a career-high 72% of defensive snaps.

His injury creates more responsibility for Mike Green, Zion Young and Ethan Burke. Young has already shown promise against the run, but Baltimore now needs him to contribute more consistently as a pass rusher.

The Ravens have enough talent to overcome losing Robinson. Hendrickson, Green and a healthy Nnamdi Madubuike give Minter legitimate ways to attack the quarterback without relying upon blitzes.

But the rotation becomes thinner, and Baltimore loses a reliable defender who could contribute against both the run and pass.

Against a quarterback who can punish even brief breakdowns in coverage, that matters.

6. What will decide the game?

The Ravens enter Sunday with a fairly clear path to winning.

They need to attack Cincinnati’s vulnerable perimeter, prevent Lawrence and Allen from dominating the middle, and create enough passing opportunities that the Bengals cannot simply concentrate on stopping Henry.

Cincinnati has had an extra week to prepare and Doyle cannot afford to spend the afternoon discovering that the Bengals have corrected their perimeter defense without having a counter ready.

Defensively, the Ravens face a different challenge.

Minter has enough talent to make Burrow uncomfortable, especially if Hendrickson continues playing the way he did against Cleveland. But the Bengals are unlikely to spend an entire afternoon unable to move the football.

Cincinnati’s passing attack is simply too good, and its offensive line has improved enough that the Ravens cannot assume their four-man rush will consistently dominate.

The challenge will be limiting explosive plays while refusing to concede endless manageable completions that become third-down conversions.

Without Lamar, I can’t see the offense finding enough answers unless the defense plays lights out.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Ravens 17

Saturday October 24, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4444

turn it all over to......biff?

OK, so let's turn the Maryland football program over to a failed college coach who once ran two very high-profile high school programs in Baltimore and molded them into national football powers.

Good idea?

Terrible idea?

To me, it's pretty much just an idea.

I have no idea, no pun intended, if it would work or not.

No one thought Indiana hiring Curt Cignetti would be a catalyst for the Hoosiers winning a national championship, either.

So, to me, the thought that Biff Poggi should be a viable candidate for the Maryland job isn't a crazy idea. He is a football coach, after all. He checks off one box, at least.

Glenn Clark and I broached this very subject this past Wednesday when work broke that Mike Locksley was out. Clark wasn't a fan of the move, basically saying "Maryland needs to do way better than Biff Poggi if they want people to be interested in Maryland football."

I don't know that I disagree with that. Clark is in touch with that community down there. I'm most certainly not.

But my contention is the obvious one: Maryland isn't getting any kind of high-profile name to fill the vacant coaching spot. They're just not. Nick Saban isn't coming out of retirement to take the job at Maryland. Neither is Urban Meyer. When Jim Harbaugh gets fired with the Chargers, he's not coming to College Park.

Sure, Maryland might lure the guy from Wake Forest or someone from Memphis or Tulane or Western Kentucky. Those guys would look at Maryland's spot in the Big Ten, even as a bottom feeder, and think, "That's a step up for me and my family."

But those guys are what we already know they are. "Just guys." They're Locksley, Durkin and so on. Four years from now when they lose to Rutgers at home, we'll want them fired, too.

And that brings us back around to the name we started with: Biff Poggi.

Is he the answer? Probably not.

Poggi hasn't really won anywhere except at the high school level. Sure, he was involved in the intracacies of a highly-successful Michigan program, but it wasn't his show to run. He was just a roadie, in other words.

I would love to see Maryland get someone with a much better college coaching record than Biff Poggi, don't get me wrong.

I'm not here today in a full-on campaign to push for Biff Poggi to be the next Maryland coach. I'm just not sure Maryland can really do a whole lot better.

Biff Poggi is not the ideal candidate. No two ways about it.

But is it the dumbest idea in the world? It most certainly isn't.

You see, Poggi brings along something Maryland desperately needs. Money. Lots of it.

We're at the time in the life of college sports where the players are getting paid. Not with the under-the-table cars and first class airline tickets and bags of $3,000 cash conveniently tucked under their dormitory bed.

Players are getting real money. Big money. Millions of dollars. And the cat is out of the bag. Kids are going to the highest bidder, period. Long gone are the days when a young man grew up watching Penn State football on a Saturday with his dad and grandfather and would never entertain going anywhere but State College, PA to play football.

Now, he's going to Arizona State if they offer him $2.4 million and Penn State offers him $1.4 million.

Maryland isn't even a "real player" in that world these days. As I noted here earlier this week, Maryland raised $43 million in athletic donor monies last year. Texas raised $171 million. Who is winning that football game when the two teams play? And, more importantly, who is getting the star cornerback out of high school in the recruiting period?

But Poggi, through his own family wealth and connections, can impact that bottom line in a big way.

Could he make up the difference between $43 million and $171 million with his own contribution(s)? Probably not. But he can add a lot of money to the coffers, the way he once did at Gilman and St. Frances Academy while turning both of those programs into nationally-known high school programs.

The Gilman controversy was raging during my days on the air as a sports talk host and I can still say today my opinion back then never wavered and it hasn't changed one bit.

There were a lot of people in town who thought Poggi and his method of doing business was "bad for the sport" and "terrible for high school athletics".

And while I will agree that the disparity in talent between what he accumulated at Gilman and the rest of the MIAA wasn't productive and the 48-0 wins week-after-week weren't productive, I also think Poggi was doing "the right thing" at Gilman. He was taking kids who otherwise couldn't have afforded a private education and an upgraded, top-of-the-line athletics experience and giving it to them.

And those kids at Gilman were also going to class.

That was always my contention with Poggi and his tactics. "As long as those kids are going to class, studying, getting decent grades and passing their tests...it's all good."

Now, again, was the lopsided nature of what was going on in the MIAA back then a good thing? It was not. Gilman was winning by 40 points every week and because the kids at Gilman were "the best of the best" from an athletic and physical standpoint, players from opposing teams were being put in harm's way.

But Poggi was doing right by his kids, many of whom went on to play college football at a high level and thereby earned a degree they otherwise wouldn't have earned.

Poggi went on to employ pretty much the same formula at St. Frances a decade ago. And it also worked, although no one in Baltimore wanted to play them for the same reason no one wanted to play Gilman in their hey day. Kids were getting hurt. It was, quite literally, the men against the boys at times.

And now, here he is. Available. After a failed run as the head coach at Charlotte and a stint at the University of Michigan as an offensive specialist/coach, Poggi has come out this week and indicated he's very much interested in the Maryland job.

That's not a surprise. He loves to coach, for starters. And he probably sees Maryland as a bit of a redemption tour for his own personal brand.

I mean, no one's been able to "fix" Maryland football in 20 years. If Poggi can do it, he might get a statue.

I'm here to say this: It's not the dumbest idea in the world.

Moving to the Big Ten was a way dumber idea, frankly. Maryland gets $54 million a year for the honor of getting their rear-ends handed to them nine Saturdays every fall. I guess that's good work if you can get it, but it also provides no enthusiasm for your football program.

If Biff Poggi wants to integrate his own personal funds into Maryland football and added $20 million or more on an annual basis to attract players and high-level coaches, tell me what the harm is with that gameplan?

And if your contention is "Poggi doesn't know how to coach" then I have a question for you: Can he be worse than Mike Locksley?

Biff Poggi knows football. Can he be the next Curt Cignetti? I have no idea. My guess is "probably not" because those kind of weird, fluky things happen once every 20 or 30 years.

But I don't think considering Biff Poggi for the Maryland football job is the dumbest thing I've ever heard. Should Maryland "try" to do better and hire someone with more football acumen and coaching accolades? Of course.

Are they going to find anyone with more football acumen and coaching accolades who also has $20 million of his own money to pour into the program? I don't think so.

Thirty years ago, money didn't really matter in college football. Twenty years ago, even ten years ago, money didn't matter.

Now, in 2026 it matters. A lot.

The way I see it, Biff Poggi wants to put his money where his mouth is. Me, personally? I like those kind of guys.

Whether I want them to coach the state football program remains to be seen, but I like someone who puts up their own money and says, "I'll get this done."

Friday October 23, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4443

better than we think?

When you've been around sports as long as I have, you come up with some pretty handy self-created sayings or cliches that you can throw out from time to time.

Nearly all of mine are rooted in strong opinion.

Like, "The hardest thing to do in sports is to stop losing."

I came up with that in the early 1990's when the Blast soccer team was going through a tough stretch. We found every possible way to lose over a 2 or 3 week period.

Ahead 4-1 going into the 4th quarter, lost 5-4.

Trailed 5-2 in the fourth, came back to tie it at 5-5, lost in overtime, 6-5.

Led 2-0 in the first quarter, didn't score again, lost 8-2.

Led 1-0, 2-1, 3-2, 4-3, 5-4, 6-5, only to give up the game-tying goal with 30 seconds left, then lose in overtime on a deflected goal that had no business going in.

We just couldn't stop losing.

One of the things about losing people don't understand is there's only ONE thing that fixes it. Winning. There's no website for it. You can't go to the library and find the Chilton manual for "How To Fix Losing".

Losing gets fixed when you win.

Another thing I discovered through trial and error was this one: The team that thinks they're really good is often times better that day than the team who actually is really good.

In other words, a team that's really good might not actually know it. And they can lose to a lesser-quality team who just happens to think they actually are really good. There's something about false-bravado that can work in your favor, oddly enough.

I don't want to go all Ted Lasso on everyone today, but that word he likes to use -- Believe -- is actually very important in sports. It's an intangible, yes, but it's important nonetheless.

One of the other things I've discovered, mainly in high school sports, is this one: "Almost every single athlete in any sport falls into one of two categories. You're either way better than you think you are or you're nowhere as good as you think you are."

I almost never see anyone who is perfectly aligned with reality. I don't know why. But it's just the nature of sports in 2026, I guess.

As you know, everything these days is driven by the internet and your phone. As soon as your team wins and you do something to help them win, you have to post it. Like, immediately. Sometimes before you've even showered. It has to go up for everyone to see: Look at me and what I did.

Conversely, if you play poorly in the game and your team loses, you're not nearly as quick to reach for your phone when the game ends.

In a lot of ways, that's just plain old human nature. Look at Facebook. When's the last time you saw your buddy post a story where he says, "Me and the old lady had a really nasty fight last night. She said some things she shouldn't have said. We aren't talking today. I'm not sure how this is going to end up."

You never see that.

But you do see pictures and stories of the dinners, weekends at the beach, parties, college scholarships, new pools, and so on. And there's nothing wrong with that. It's just human nature to highlight the good and shove the bad under the rug.

That's how athletes learn to deal with their inadequacies. They promote themselves when things go great and don't say a word when things go bad. And, from that, what happens, in my opinion, is young athletes forget that they actually are capable of playing poorly or having an off day.

They wind up thinking more highly of their abilities than reality allows for.

On the flip side, though, I've seen a lot of young athletes who have no real clue just how good they really freakin' are.

Interestingly enough, particulary in golf, it's actually kind of beneficial to weave in and out of those two themes.

Sometimes in golf, you have to think you're better than you really are in order to beat a better player, hit an incredible shot or take on a par 5 you probably shouldn't be trying to reach in two shots with the match on the line.

Other times, you have to play the hole defensively when you know the shot you're facing isn't one of your stronger suits.

I've had a golfer play for me who, as a sophomore, was nowhere near as good as he thought he was. But as a junior, he moved into the "is way better than he thinks he is" realm.

I don't think overconfidence is the best trait to have, but sometimes you have to "go there" in order to get to that other part, where you're way better than even you realize.

I bring this up just to give you a reason to pay attention to it in the future. And to semi-answer a crazy scenario presented by regular #DMD contributor Billy in the Comments section regarding Tyler Huntley and Lamar Jackson basically changing roles.

Billy suggested the Ravens go with Tyler Huntley (Snoop) as their starting QB and let Lamar go on to another team, I assume as a free agent since he has a no-trade-clause in his current deal.

The only reason the Ravens are a threat to go to the Super Bowl every season is because of one guy. That's it. One guy. Lamar Jackson.

Like it or not, he's the team. If he plays well, the Ravens always have a great chance to win a game. Upwards of 85%, I'd say, on any given Sunday.

If Lamar doesn't play or doesn't play well, those percentages of winning dip to something like 25%.

And that's not taking into account the opponent.

Lamar Jackson is one of those cases where he actually has no idea how good he really is.

I'm sure Lamar knows he's good. Two MVP awards tell that story. But I'm not Jackson knows just how good he actually is.

In the last 40 years of the NFL, going all the way back to 1980, let's say, I'd be willing to state that there haven't been five players, total, more valuable to their team than Lamar Jackson is to the Ravens.

And all of the other four have been quarterbacks, for what that's worth.

Joe Montana.

Peyton Manning.

Tom Brady.

Patrick Mahomes.

Lamar Jackson.

There's the five.

You can add other names like Elway, Roethlisberger, and even Josh Allen, perhaps, but my contention is Lamar is more valuable to his team than those guys were (are) to their teams. It's all debate-worthy, obviously, but my point about Lamar is simple. He's one of the greatest players in the last 40 years.

That means you don't let him go and give his job to a 2nd string guy like Tyler Huntley. That's almost laughable to even consider.

Some guys "seem" important but in the end, they're really not all that critical to the team's success.

Other guys...well, without them, you have almost nothing.

Without Lamar Jackson, the Ravens have almost nothing.

They're a 12 or 13 win team with him and a 4 or 5 win team without him.

And I'm pretty sure the Ravens themselves know that.

faith in sports

As you all know, hockey is my all-time favorite sport.

So, I have definitely have a softer-than-normal soft-spot for Christian hockey players like today's featured guest, Ryan Johansen.

Johansen played 13 NHL seasons, spanning from 2011–12 through 2023–24. He was selected by the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2010 and made his NHL debut in 2011.

I really hope you'll take some time today to listen to Johansen talk about his life in the NHL and how his faith journey helped him navigate his way through a sometimes difficult career path.

Jesus played a huge role in his hockey career and his life.

Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electrical for their continued support of #DMD and our "Faith in Sports" segment every Friday.

Thursday October 22, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4442

"i opened up my toolbox and..."

We'll get to today's "meat" of the website in a minute. First, I'll quickly address the firing of Maryland football coach Mike Locksley.

As I've written here recently, it had to be done. Maryland football isn't going anywhere under Locksley. Firing him was a necessary evil.

That said, it's not going to make a difference.

Oh, sure, maybe next year some new coach figures out a way to get Maryland to finish with 4 wins. Or 5, even. But in time, a few years down the road, that guy will also be shown the door after a couple of 3 win campaigns have left the natives restless.

Maryland football isn't going anywhere because they don't have the money to compete. That's what it takes these days. Money. Maryland doesn't have any.

Last year, Maryland raised the most money EVER, for the school, in athletic donations. They brought in $43 million.

The University of Texas brought in $171 million.

Kansas received an athletic donor pledge of $300 million, to be used over a 10-year period as the athletic department sees fit.

Michigan State received an athletics pledge of $390 million.

Maryland generated $43 million and the people down there were doing jumping jacks on Route 1. They were thrilled, in other words.

The reality in College Park is Maryland football is a nothing-burger and, no pun intended, nothing is going to change that.

Well, money might change that, but Maryland can't raise enough of it to matter. People aren't going to throw money into Maryland football.

Hire any coach you want. The Terps are always going to be a Big Ten bottom feeder. Sad but true.

#DMD reader Bill P. sent an e-mail to me on Tuesday in need of some guidance. It's sports-related. Without getting into specifics, Bill is a JV coach at a local high school currently playing their 2026 fall season.

Bill's issue is the dismissal of a player on his team.

"I've never had to do this. I've only been coaching for two seasons. What do I say to ease the pain?" Bill asked me.

I replied with a couple of important questions for Bill. For starters, is this dismissal due to conduct that violates school code or policy? Because, if so, that's a different animal. Bill confirmed it wasn't school related. The player was simply becoming too much of a problem in the locker room because he wasn't getting the playing time he thought he should be getting.

I also asked how many chances the player has had. "Several," Bill replied. I didn't really press him on that. Several chances this season? Several last season and this season? Anyway...

I've been extraordinarily fortunate in my 15 years at Calvert Hall and two at John Carroll. I've been forced to dismiss exactly one player from my team. And, frankly, I've probably only "thought" about dismissing three. The other two survived. One didn't.

As I said to Bill, releasing or dismissing a player should be the absolute very last option for a coach. I look at every player in my program like they're a stock. When they make either the JV or varsity program, they're a stock that I'm buying at a certain price. By the time their four years are up, I hope to have earned a nice, profitable "return" on that investment by getting good golf out of them at some point.

When you dismiss a player, you're effectively selling that stock at a loss. You invested a year or two or three in him, essentially giving him a roster spot over someone else, and then in mid-stream, you're removing him and losing out on that investment you made.

So, as I explained to Bill, releasing someone from your team/program should be your last step. Every other option needs to be explored and utilized.

But --- Bill insists the time has come to cut ties with this young man. He says the school administration is OK with it. The question is: "How do I go about doing it?"

For starters, it's always important to remember this: The player himself might actually be hopeful of this result. Don't ever discount the idea that getting dismissed might actually be a blessing in disguise for the player. He (or she) might actually be thankful.

You, the coach, are nervous about doing it. But the player might be hoping you're going to do it. Always remember that.

In the end, I think the best approach is what I'd call the Q-D-F formula.

Quick. Direct. Final.

There's no sense in taking 5 or 10 minutes to get to the point. And there's no sense in taking 30 minutes to hash out the details on why you're doing what you're doing. And there shouldn't any wiggle room. The decision has been made.

In the case of the player I dismissed, I gave him a very quick but easy-to-understand story. "For the year you've been in the program, we've had issues with you," I told him. "You're aware of those issues. You know I'm not making them up or embellishing them. We've had issues but you always survived them.

When you had those issues, I used certain tools in my toolbox to deal with you. Sometimes I was tough on you. I used a hammer, metaphorically, to address those issues. Sometimes I ignored you. I thought maybe that might get the message across. Ignoring you was another metaphorical tool.

I used every tool in my coaching toolbox to get to you. None of them were working.

This morning I opened my toolbox and guess what was in there?

Nothing.

I don't have any tools left to use. So you have to go. This is end of the road for you here."

And that was pretty much it.

I then added, "And the truth of the matter is...I think you're relieved by this. You like being on the team because you have something to do between 3 pm and 6 pm every day, but you don't really "love" golf. Not the way you need to love it to be really good at it. So, this is a relief to you, I think."

And with that, it was over.

Almost...

Two hours later, I heard a notification on my phone and looked down to see an e-mail in my inbox. I opened up my phone and it was from the player's mother.

"Oh, boy, here it comes," I thought to myself. "I'm going to get roasted here."

I clicked on the e-mail.

"Coach, I can't believe it took you that long," she wrote. "I'm so sorry you had to deal with (XXXXX) and his behavior over the last 12 months. We've worked hard to get him to fall in line but we're coming up short in that area. We appreciate everything you did for him on and off the course and we apologize for putting you through this."

To say I was surprised at that e-mail is (was) an understatement.

But I was relieved, to say the least. And I was impressed with the mother, who knew full well I had given her son numerous upon numerous opportunities to fall in line. And he just wouldn't -- or couldn't -- do it.

Oddly enough, in the years thereafter I saw the young man on several occasions at various golf courses and school functions and he was beyond pleasant to me. Almost "overly" pleasant, actually. And I was grateful for that. Anytime a coach dismisses a player from a program, there's a small part of the coach that says, "I failed him (her)."

So, that was my advice to Bill. Q-D-F. Make it quick. Two minutes, tops. Be direct. "I'm dismissing you from the team." And be final about it. "But, coach, what if I do XXX and YYY?" The answer is, "No, you're dismissed from the team."

It's never easy. To borrow a famous line we all heard from our parents growing: "This is going to hurt me (the coach) as much if not more than it's going to hurt you (the player)."

Dismissing someone from your team (or your place of employment) isn't for the meek of heart. Sometimes, though, it's simply the only final remedy that's available.

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

dual eights efficiency index: ravens slide

Chicago makes the biggest jump of Week 6, Kansas City climbs into the top three, and the Ravens fall out of the top 10. Meanwhile, the Power Index sees a very different picture for several contenders.

October 20, 2026 | Through Week 6

Six weeks into the NFL season, the San Francisco 49ers have separated themselves from the rest of the league.

At 6-0, San Francisco sits atop both the Dual Eights Efficiency Index and our forward-looking Power Index (DEPI). The 49ers have the NFL's most efficient adjusted offense, a 2.3-point lead over Jacksonville in Efficiency, and an even more substantial advantage in projected team strength.

But the biggest story this week is Chicago.

The Bears responded to last week's embarrassing loss in Green Bay by beating Atlanta 31-23, climbing eight places to fourth in Efficiency and four places to third in DEPI. No team improved more in either index.

Kansas City also continues to climb, with its defense joining Patrick Mahomes and the offense among the league's top units. The undefeated Chiefs are now third in Efficiency, although DEPI remains considerably more skeptical.

And then there are the Ravens.

After surviving two games without Lamar Jackson, Baltimore finally paid the price in Cleveland. The 13-10 loss dropped the Ravens from fifth to 11th in Efficiency, their largest decline of the season. DEPI remains more optimistic about their underlying strength, but that optimism comes with a fairly significant condition.

Lamar has to play.

The expanding gap between the two models is becoming one of the more interesting parts of our weekly rankings. Efficiency measures how well teams have actually performed. DEPI estimates how strong they should be going forward, incorporating historical performance, recent form and quarterback availability.

Sometimes the models agree completely. San Francisco is first in both. Other times they produce dramatically different assessments, particularly for teams such as Minnesota, Buffalo and the Rams.

Those disagreements give us something useful to examine beyond another weekly list of 32 teams.

1. San Francisco 49ers — 69.4

6-0 | Week 5: 1st | Offense: 1 | Defense: 13 | Special teams: 23 | DEPI: 1st (+8.17)

San Francisco continues to build the strongest statistical case for being the best team in football, beating Washington 23-17 on Monday night, to maintain their unbeaten record and increase their Efficiency advantage over Jacksonville to 2.33 points.

San Francisco leads the league with a 52.7% offensive success rate and ranks second in raw offensive EPA at +0.207 per play. More importantly for this index, its opponent-adjusted offense remains first.

The defense is considerably less imposing at 13th, and special teams rank 23rd. This is not a particularly balanced team, but an offense this consistently productive can cover for plenty of ordinary play elsewhere.

DEPI agrees emphatically, ranking San Francisco first at +8.17, more than three projected points ahead of second-place Buffalo. The offensive component alone accounts for +6.81 of that rating.

There is little disagreement between the models about San Francisco. Both see an exceptional offense that has made the 49ers the strongest team in the league through six weeks.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars — 67.1

4-2 | Week 5: 2nd | Offense: 3 | Defense: 6 | Special teams: 14 | DEPI: 4th (+4.42)

Jacksonville lost 34-31 in London to Houston and somehow remained second in Efficiency.

That is not a mistake.

The Jaguars still possess arguably the most balanced profile among the leading contenders, ranking third offensively and sixth defensively. Their special teams have also improved, climbing from 19th to 14th.

Giving up 34 points to the Texans certainly hurt. Jacksonville's defensive ranking slipped from fourth to sixth, and its overall index declined by 1.06 points.

But its adjusted offense actually improved from fourth to third. Across six games, the cumulative performance remains strong enough to keep the Jaguars comfortably ahead of Kansas City.

The Power Index is slightly less enthusiastic, placing Jacksonville fourth at +4.42. Its projected offense and defense both make substantial positive contributions, so there is no obvious weakness driving that modest disagreement.

Jacksonville is still a legitimate contender by either measure. The question is whether the defense can return to its earlier form after a disappointing afternoon against Houston.

3. Kansas City Chiefs — 65.3

5-0 | Week 5: 4th | Offense: 5 | Defense: 7 | Special teams: 13 | DEPI: 9th (+2.77)

Kansas City keeps winning, and the underlying numbers are beginning to look increasingly impressive.

The Chiefs improved to 5-0 by holding the Chargers to six points in a 22-6 victory. That performance pushed their adjusted defense from 13th to seventh and moved Kansas City into the top three overall.

Their offense remains fifth.

That is now a top-seven team on both sides of the football, rather than an offense dependent upon Mahomes to overcome deficiencies elsewhere.

The interesting part is that DEPI remains unconvinced Kansas City belongs among the league's very best.

The Power Index ranks the Chiefs ninth at +2.77, six places below their Efficiency standing. Its projected offensive contribution of +1.80 is solid, but considerably less impressive than their fifth-ranked adjusted offense this season.

Part of that difference comes from DEPI incorporating more historical information and smoothing performance rather than treating the current sample as a definitive measure of future strength.

The counterargument is becoming stronger every week. Kansas City has won all five games, improved defensively and established a much more balanced statistical profile.

At some point, a forecasting model has to recognize sustained improvement rather than remain anchored to its earlier expectations.

The Chiefs have another opportunity to force that adjustment Sunday night in Seattle.

4. Chicago Bears — 63.6

4-2 | Week 5: 12th | Offense: 6 | Defense: 15 | Special teams: 5 | DEPI: 3rd (+4.65)

What a difference a week makes.

Last Sunday, Chicago was coming off a 31-7 loss in Green Bay that sent the Bears tumbling from fifth to 12th.

This Sunday, with Caleb Williams back under center, they beat Atlanta 31-23 and immediately climbed back into the top five. Their 8.16-point Efficiency improvement was the largest in the NFL, and the eight-place ranking jump was equally impressive.

Unlike some of the more unusual profiles near the top of these rankings, Chicago improved in every phase. The offense climbed from ninth to sixth. The defense jumped from 20th to 15th. Special teams improved from ninth to fifth.

Chicago's adjusted offensive ranking deserves some context. The Bears are producing only +0.026 raw offensive EPA per play, which is closer to league average than elite. Their stronger adjusted standing comes from opponent and venue context, along with a respectable 46.7% success rate.

DEPI is also buying the improvement.

Chicago rises from seventh to third in the Power Index at +4.65, with increases of +0.83 projected points on offense and +0.95 on defense.

There is still considerable volatility in a six-game sample. The same team has now experienced dramatic movement in opposite directions in consecutive weeks. But unlike last week's rankings, where Efficiency and DEPI were diverging after the Green Bay loss, both models now consider Chicago one of the NFL's strongest teams.

Thursday's matchup with New England should offer another useful test.

5. Seattle Seahawks — 61.9

3-3 | Week 5: 3rd | Offense: 26 | Defense: 2 | Special teams: 4 | DEPI: 11th (+1.73)

Seattle remains one of the strangest teams in the top 10.

The Seahawks dropped two places after losing 17-14 at Denver, but their overall efficiency is still fifth despite a .500 record.

The explanation remains largely unchanged.

Seattle has the second-ranked adjusted defense and fourth-ranked special teams, but its offense sits 26th. The offense is producing negative raw EPA per play at -0.079, while the defense consistently gives Seattle an opportunity to remain competitive.

DEPI is less willing to believe that formula makes the Seahawks an elite team going forward. It ranks them 11th at +1.73, with the projected offense actually subtracting 1.83 points from their overall rating.

Efficiency recognizes how much Seattle has accomplished defensively. DEPI questions whether that production can consistently compensate for a bottom-tier offense against quality opponents. Sunday night's visit from Kansas City should help provide an answer.

6. Minnesota Vikings — 61.8

5-0 | Week 5: 6th | Offense: 31 | Defense: 1 | Special teams: 1 | DEPI: 14th (+0.11)

Minnesota somehow remains undefeated with the NFL's second-worst adjusted offense. The Vikings are first in both defense and special teams, which is an extraordinary combination. Their defense leads the NFL in raw EPA allowed at -0.215 per play and opponent success rate allowed at just 33%.

They are exceptionally difficult to move the ball against, and their special teams consistently help control field position.

The offense remains a different story. Even after improving from 32nd to 31st during the bye, Minnesota is nowhere close to producing at the level normally associated with an undefeated contender.

DEPI is particularly skeptical, ranking the Vikings 14th at just +0.11, essentially an average team on a neutral field. Its offensive projection is a dreadful -3.74 points.

That eight-place difference between the two indexes is among the largest in the league. Minnesota deserves credit for winning games with defense and special teams, but relying on those units to cover for an offense this limited becomes increasingly difficult when opponents are capable of protecting the ball and generating even modest production.

7. Cincinnati Bengals — 59.1

3-2 | Week 5: 7th | Offense: 7 | Defense: 12 | Special teams: 12 | DEPI: 7th (+3.36)

Cincinnati had its bye and barely moved.

The Bengals remain seventh in Efficiency with a 59.1 rating, essentially unchanged from last week. Their adjusted offense ranks seventh, while defense and special teams are both 12th. Cincinnati has a good offense supported by two units performing around the upper middle of the league.

DEPI ranks the Bengals seventh as well, at +3.36.

For a ranking exercise increasingly defined by substantial differences between observed performance and projected strength, Cincinnati offers a refreshing lack of controversy.

The Bengals have been good, if not dominant, and both models agree about where they belong. They visit Baltimore on Sunday in what should be a consequential early AFC North matchup.

Depending upon Lamar Jackson's availability, the Power Index sees either a narrow Ravens advantage or a slight Bengals edge.

8. Carolina Panthers — 58.4

3-2 | Week 5: 8th | Offense: 11 | Defense: 11 | Special teams: 11 | DEPI: 13th (+0.64)

Carolina has achieved a rather unusual statistical accomplishment.

The Panthers rank exactly 11th in adjusted offense, defense and special teams. That may be the most balanced profile in the NFL. Their 25-14 victory in Philadelphia improved their overall Efficiency rating by 1.54 points, although they remained eighth.

The defense made the most significant improvement, climbing from 15th to 11th. There is no individual unit carrying Carolina the way Minnesota's defense and special teams carry its struggling offense. The Panthers have simply been consistently above average across the board.

DEPI remains more cautious, ranking Carolina 13th at +0.64.

The five-place difference reflects uncertainty about whether this year's balanced performance represents a sustainable improvement over the team's historical baseline.

Still, Carolina is moving in the right direction by both measures. Its Power Index rating improved as well, and the Panthers have given themselves a credible foundation without depending upon a single exceptional unit.

That is not the flashiest way to become a playoff contender.

It might be one of the more sustainable ones.

9. Buffalo Bills — 56.9

5-1 | Week 5: 10th | Offense: 2 | Defense: 30 | Special teams: 2 | DEPI: 2nd (+5.14)

Buffalo remains one of the largest disagreements between the two models.

The Bills are 5-1 and have the NFL's second-ranked adjusted offense and special teams, but they also have the 30th-ranked defense.

Their 33-30 victory in Las Vegas was another demonstration of the problem. Buffalo can produce enough offense to overcome a great deal, but allowing 30 points to the Raiders is hardly encouraging.

The Bills are surrendering +0.135 raw EPA per defensive play, a concerning number for a team with legitimate championship expectations. Efficiency therefore ranks Buffalo only ninth.

DEPI takes a substantially more optimistic position, placing the Bills second at +5.14.

Josh Allen and the offense provide much of the explanation. Buffalo's projected offensive contribution is +5.72 points, while the defensive component subtracts 1.60.

Importantly, DEPI does recognize the defensive weakness. It simply considers the offense valuable enough to overcome it more consistently than the overall Efficiency ranking suggests.

The Bills remain one of football's most dangerous teams, but their defense is beginning to look like a weakness that could eventually become very expensive.

10. New England Patriots — 56.7

4-2 | Week 5: 11th | Offense: 12 | Defense: 10 | Special teams: 20 | DEPI: 8th (+2.79)

New England returns to the top 10 following a 26-19 victory over the Jets.

The Patriots don't have a particularly spectacular profile, but they are increasingly well-rounded.

Their adjusted offense ranks 12th and defense 10th. Special teams remain below average at 20th, although that unit improved six places this week.

New England's Efficiency score climbed to 56.7, placing it just 0.37 points ahead of the Ravens for the final top-10 position.

DEPI is slightly more optimistic, ranking the Patriots eighth at +2.79.

That agreement is encouraging for a team that continues to improve. New England no longer looks like an early-season surprise living off one outstanding performance.

The Patriots have become a credible top-10 team across both measures.

Thursday night's visit to Chicago is particularly interesting because it is the only Week 7 matchup between two teams ranked in the top 10 of both indexes.

Biggest Risers: Chicago Leads, Cleveland Makes Its Move

Chicago was comfortably the biggest winner in this week's rankings.

The Bears gained 8.16 Efficiency points and eight ranking positions, climbing from 12th to fourth. Their DEPI improvement was similarly impressive, moving from seventh to third.

But Cleveland deserves some attention as well. The Browns jumped from 24th to 20th after holding the Ravens to 10 points. Their adjusted defense improved from 16th to ninth, an enormous change driven by Baltimore's inability to move the football.

Cleveland is now 4-2, tied with the Ravens and Steelers atop the AFC North. The interesting qualification is that the Browns still rank just 20th in Efficiency and 25th in DEPI. Their record is considerably better than their underlying performance.

Pittsburgh also climbed three places to 19th after its comeback victory at Tampa Bay. The Steelers improved defensively but remain below average in overall Efficiency despite their 4-2 record.

The AFC North is becoming particularly interesting. Three teams are tied at 4-2, but only the Ravens remain inside DEPI's top 10.

The standings say the division is tightly contested. The underlying ratings say the teams are not nearly as equal as those records suggest.

Biggest Fallers: Atlanta Collapses, Ravens Drop Out of the Top 10

Atlanta suffered the largest decline in both indexes this week.

The Falcons fell from 13th to 22nd in Efficiency, losing 8.84 points after their 31-23 defeat to Chicago. Their offense dropped from 15th to 21st and special teams fell to 31st. The defense remains fifth, but Atlanta's earlier balance has largely disappeared.

DEPI is similarly unimpressed, dropping the Falcons 10 places to 23rd.

That represents a remarkable reversal for a team that looked so dangerous offensively just two weeks ago.

The Giants also had a difficult week, falling four places to 24th after allowing 34 points to New Orleans.

But the most interesting decline for this audience belongs to Baltimore.

What happened to the Ravens?

The Ravens went into Cleveland ranked fifth in Efficiency, having survived two games without Lamar Jackson and escaped Atlanta with an improbable overtime victory.

They left Cleveland ranked 11th.

Their 13-10 loss produced a 6.23-point Efficiency decline, the second-largest in the league. The offense managed just 235 yards and a 33.9% success rate. Baltimore's adjusted offensive ranking dropped from sixth to eighth.

The defense also declined, falling from 10th to 14th, while special teams took the biggest hit, dropping from 14th to 24th after another missed 49-yard field goal from Tyler Loop.

This was not simply the offense struggling because Huntley is not Lamar.

The Ravens deteriorated in all three phases.

The offensive decline is understandable given the absence of their franchise quarterback.

Huntley can execute parts of the offense, and his remarkable finish against Atlanta demonstrated he can produce when given manageable answers, but the offense is fundamentally different without Jackson.

The other two units do not get the same excuse.

Baltimore invested heavily in its defense precisely so it could remain competitive when the offense encountered difficulty. And after Loop appeared to have put his kicking concerns behind him, another miss from 49 yards is a frustrating regression.

DEPI remains more optimistic, ranking the Ravens sixth at +3.47.

For Sunday's game against Cincinnati, the default DEPI projection has the Ravens favored by 1.6 points at home. With Huntley instead of Lamar, the matchup flips to approximately Cincinnati by 1.4.

The Ravens aren't suddenly a bad football team because they lost in Cleveland. Their healthy roster remains capable of competing with almost anyone.

But two consecutive weeks without Lamar have demonstrated how quickly the rest of the team's margin for error disappears.

At 4-2, there is no reason for panic. There is plenty of reason to be concerned about Lamar's availability.

Where DEPI Disagrees Most With Week 7 Betting Spreads

One of the more useful applications of DEPI is comparing projected margins with the betting market.

The calculation starts with the difference between the two teams' Power Index ratings, then adds a 1.54-point home-field adjustment. International neutral-site games receive no home-field advantage.

That produces a projected scoring margin for each matchup.

We can compare it with the market spread to identify games where our assessment differs most from the consensus. The model is currently 42-45-6 against the spread this season.

Here are the three largest discrepancies for Week 7.

Matchup / Market spread / DEPI spread / Difference

49ers at Falcons / SF -3.0 / SF -8.2 / 5.2 pts

Broncos at Cardinals / DEN -4.5 / ARI -0.3 / 4.8 pts

Colts at Vikings / MIN -6.5 MIN / -1.9 / 4.6 pts

Explore the complete rankings at: https://dualeights.com/nfl/rankings/

Wednesday October 21, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4441

wednesday with greg

Greg Trehane returns today with an exhilirating back-and-forth about several important sports-related subjects. You're welcome to offer your opinions on my opinions in the Comments section below.

Since I try hard to abide by the sign in the front office, "Don't Feed The Trolls", I won't identify this person by name, but I had someone reach out to me on Monday who was upset that one of his comments had been removed from the site for inappropriate language.

"Censoring people now?" he asked, along with a few other non-pleasantries aimed at me.

"Yes," I replied. "I most certainly am. And proud of it. Because all I ask of you (and anyone else) is to come here and not act like a buffoon. And before you ask, yes, using foul language here when you're well aware it's not within our rules and regulations is further defined as 'acting like a buffoon'."

He replied and wasn't happy, which is gaslighting 101. You wrote a word on the website we've asked you not to use and somehow I become the bad guy.

Walmart has "Whatever..." on sale for 99 cents. I picked up two cases of it on Monday.

On we go to Greg, with a friendly reminder to just be a good person here and follow the simple rules we set out in an effot to keep the peace. And thank you, again, to the 98.5% of you who do that every day. It's a pleasure to have you here in the community with me.

Greg: "I haven't seen anything from you yet about the saga involving Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in London. What do you make of what happened? Is there more to it than we know?"

DF: "There's always more to it than we know. I think it's going to blow up into one of the biggest sports stories of the year once all of the facts are laid out in front of us. Hurts could have played and died in that Jacksonville game. I'm not a doctor and can't specifically tell you "how" that could have happened, but with what we're finding out now about his condition, I think it's pretty evident he was put in harm's way by playing.

Now, did the doctors advise him not to play but Hurts said, "Come on man, I'm a football player. There's a football game today. I'm playing." ?? I don't know. That seems fairly unlikely in this day and age. Doctors and trainers pretty much run the games. If you get dinged in the head on a play in the first quarter and the "attending physician" says you can't go back in, you're not going back in.

I'm not sure how it came to pass that Hurts spent all night in the hospital, wasn't allowed to sleep because of his condition and then still somehow got cleared to play and played in the game. But I think we're going to find out there was gross negligence involved, along with some "team-related pressure" to play in the game and try to beat the Jaguars."

Greg: "In all of the years I've read your work I don't know if I really know the answer to this so that's why I'm asking. Are you a Phil Mickelson fan? Or were you during his hey day? What do you think of Mickelson?"

DF: "Great player for the better part of 20 years. Quite clearly the 2nd best player in this generation behind Tiger. Now, Scottie will probably wind up having better win and career numbers than Phil, but they pretty much didn't compete against one another. By the time Scottie broke out, Phil was done on the PGA Tour and playing LIV.

Anyway, I always liked Phil, but I also knew all along he was more show than substance. Tiger was "all golf" and he pretty much let his clubs and trophies do the talking. Phil was the funny guy who liked to gamble and take chances and was probably more well liked from a corporate standpoint than Tiger.

Tiger never struck me as a guy you'd like to have a beer with. Phil, on the other hand, would drink all day with you, then slip you the bill and say, "Left my wallet back in the hotel room."

To harken back 50 years ago, Phil was Lee Trevino and Tiger was Jack Nicklaus. Jack just wanted to play golf and win. Lee wanted to try to beat you but he'd laugh and cut up while he was doing that. Some of that was Lee's insecurity coming out. "Even when I lose, I have fun." That's what we saw from Phil. "I might not be better than Tiger but at least I'm not a stick in the mud."

I always liked Phil. I liked Tiger more, mostly because he was way better at golf. But I liked Mickelson. Then he went to LIV and I lost a lot of respect for him."

Greg: "What's the one biggest lesson we have learned as fans about the Rays/Brewers World Series that's coming up?"

DF: "Hmmmmm, good question. It feels to me like the obvious answer is payroll-related, which means that's really not the answer after all. I think it has more to do with the overall composition of the roster and how you need to have 40 or so players to mix in and out during the season to have a winning, championship-caliber club.

The team with the best 25 (26) man roster doesn't win. The team with the best 40 or 45 players winds up winning.

Not to bring up what we saw from the Orioles in '26, but they were immediately behind the 8-ball as soon as it was announced that Westburg was done for the season. One guy. Not even a "great" player, mind you. But good enough and important enough, given the team's overall lack of deep depth, to be one of the big reasons why they couldn't win 85 games or so and make the playoffs.

I think what we also learned from the Brewers and Rays is something we say in golf all the time: "It's not how...it's how many."

In other words, it's not "how" you score the runs, but "how many" you score. Bunts, singles, hit-and-runs, double steals, good fundamentals in the field -- none of those are as flashy as 420 foot home runs or 102 MPH fast balls, but they are the things winning teams will do if that's what is necessary to do in order to win.

Now, each team has "flashy" points for sure. Tampa Bay can beat you with singles, yes, but they can mash home runs, too. They have good pitching to go with that. Milwaukee has flame throwers on speed dial, it seems. But they will gladly "small ball" you to death. If they get the lead-off runner on base in an inning, you're likely going to see them get him across at the plate by some method.

Yes, their payrolls are both small, in contrast to the big boys like the Dodgers and Mets, but that's only because their star players are all still young enough to not cost them boatloads of money. We all know what Tampa Bay will do with their best players in the next year or two. They'll ship them off before they have to pay them. That's their M.O.

In the end, though, the thing we learned the most about the two teams is simple: Score runs and pitch well. Get your bat on the ball. Run the bases with excellence and intention. Don't give runs away on defense. Just be solid."

Greg: "Who is the biggest surprise in the NFL through the first 6 weeks of the season?"

DF: "It has to be either or both of the L.A. teams. The Chargers haven't won a game yet. The Rams are 2-4 and just lost at home to Arizona and also now will be without Davante Adams until December at least.

There was some early summer talk about an L.A./L.A. Super Bowl with the Chargers hiring offensive whiz-kid Mike McDaniel and the Rams acquiring Myles Garrett and having Aaron Donald return to their roster.

We haven't yet reached Halloween and the Chargers season is effectively over and the Rams are in deep trouble.

To me, that's the biggest surprise of the season.

On the flip side, Minnesota is probably the biggest "positive" surprise, but that's not going to last. There's no way they're a legitimate 13 or 14 win team. They have Buffalo (home) and New England (away) and San Francisco (away) as their three tough out-of-division games remaining. We'll see what they're made of there.

It's not impossible to miss the playoffs after starting 5-0. Minnesota could still wind up a 9 win team and not make it. But they'll probably figure out a way to win at least 5 more games (they do have the Colts and Commanders at home and Jets on the road) and get into the playoffs somehow."

Greg: "A big time hypothetical question here, but let's say Lamar Jackson's ankle injury continues to keep him out and the Ravens lose to the Bengals, Bills and Jaguars in their next three games (with Huntley at QB). If that happens, is there any reason for the Ravens to go out and bring in a new veteran QB to back-up Jackson? Garoppolo, Mullens or even Russell Wilson? They'd all be available at mid-season most likely."

DF: "Definitely not. They're not winning any games with those guys, either. If Lamar is hurt to the extent he doesn't play in the next three games, they just have to stick it out and hope he comes back for the second half of the season.

Without Lamar, the Ravens are cooked. Getting Jimmy Garoppolo and playing him instead of Tyler Huntley is going to produce the same results. Sure, Garoppolo might be good enough to beat the Chargers or the Panthers or the Texans, but he's not beating all three of them in a row the way Lamar would.

I get the question. It's not dumb to ask. I assume you're intentionally bypassing Fagnano because it's assumed he wouldn't be any good, either, and I'm with you on that one. It's Lamar or bust. If Lamar's out, you just have to do your best and hope it's good enough."

Tuesday October 20, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4440

minter and harbs...where's the difference?

#DMD reader and regular commenter Frank M. checked in yesterday, quite frustrated with Jesse Minter.

The source of his angst is Minter's apparent refusal to address the Lamar Jackson injury situation "with a straight face", Frank wrote.

"No wonder they hired Jessie (sic)," Frank wrote. "He's Harbaugh 2.0. Just look at all the dumb penalties and the blown leads and the lying to the media about Lamar's ankle. It's just like Harbaugh would have done."

There's a lot to unpack there.

For starters, comparing Minter (6 games into his career) with Harbaugh (19 seasons) is kind of crazy. But I understand where it comes from. It's the "new boss, same as the old boss," theory.

I'm not going to defend Minter on the penalties or the blown leads, nor will I support him for being 4-2. The players are almost always mostly responsible for the team's record and in-game performance. Does coaching matter? Of course. Scouting and preparing for an opponent are paramount to a team's success or lack thereof.

But in the end, no coach was responsible for Derrick Henry's disastrous fumble on Sunday. Even though I don't think that was pass interference on Keyon Martin in the 4th quarter, that wasn't coaching if Martin was, in fact, guilty of a penalty there. And no coach was responsible for Jerry Jeudy wiggling free for a massive 33 yard reception on the game's final drive.

Players play.

And they either make plays (like the Browns did late in the game) or they fall short of excellence (like Henry, Tyler Loop and the Ravens secondary on that final drive).

As I always say, when a Raven "makes a play", it's because he's "a baller" or "a beast". When Marlon Humphrey punches the ball out of someone's hand, he, Humphrey that is, gets all of the credit.

When someone punches the ball out of Derrick Henry's hand, we bemoan the fact that Henry once again fumbled in the fourth quarter and gave the other team a short field to cash in on.

So, as it relates to coaching and the (early) comparisons between Minter and Harbaugh, I'll take a pass on those. It's way too soon to beat up the Ravens for "hiring another Harbaugh".

Editor's note: In a weird twist of irony, the fans should actually hope the Ravens did hire another Harbaugh. In his 18 seasons the Ravens went to 4 AFC title games and won a Super Bowl. If Minter duplicates those feats, we'll all be happy. I think.

Now, did the Ravens like Minter as their top choice candidate because he had certain characteristics that were similar to Harbaugh? Yes.

Did Harbaugh's own endorsement of Minter help grease the wheels for the former Chargers defensive coordinator to land in Charm City? Yes.

But to suggest that penalties and turnover and late-game collapses are indicative of "nothing changing" in Baltimore is a bit of a reach at this point.

However.........

I'm going to defend Minter on the injury-related commentary from Frank. And Frank isn't the only one, mind you. A quick scroll through Twitter on Monday showed lots of people taking shots at Minter for the way he dodged questions about Lamar's injury and status for this Sunday's game during his Monday press conference.

Minter noted on Monday that Lamar's injury is still a "day-to-day-thing" and wasn't willing to make any kind of prediction on whether the 2-time league MVP would be ready to play against the Bengals.

When asked if Lamar is on pace to practice this Wednesday, Minter said, "Potentially. We'll see how it goes."

These two things are true. And neither is an indictment of Minter.

First, the Ravens don't know if Lamar is going to practice on Wednesday because Lamar doesn't share that kind of information in advance with Minter or anyone else for that matter.

If you think Minter (or Harbaugh in his day) is vague, you should be around Lamar when he's asked how he's feeling.

So, that's point number one. Minter has no idea if Jackson is going to practice because Lamar hasn't told him either he is or he isn't.

Point number two is the easier one to understand.

Even if he knows, Minter is under no obligation to share that information with anyone.

In fact, Minter should do whatever he can to keep that information private and unknown.

Yes, the Ravens have an obligation to file an injury report with the league. We know, of course, that's all about gambling and sharing important information with those who wager on the games.

And, so, the Ravens should -- and do -- file that report and list Jackson as "questionable" since that's precisely what he is, no matter if he practices on Wednesday or sits out.

But even if Lamar texted Minter on Sunday night, Monday night or Tuesday night and said, "Good to go, coach, I'm ready for Sunday", there's no way Minter should share that information.

You're trying to win a football game on Sunday. Telling the Bengals who is playing quarterback for your team is in direct contrast with that effort.

Make the Bengals sweat it out. Leave them wondering.

Now, obviously, if Lamar returns to practice on Wednesday, that's a fairly decent indicator that he's going to play on Sunday. But don't for a minute think the Ravens aren't capable of a little mid-week chicanery to throw the Bengals off their scent.

Lamar runs around for 12 minutes during the "open to the media" part of the practice, then shuts it down after that and once again sits on Sunday. Would Minter do that kind of thing? Probably, yes. It's definitely something Harbs would have considered and or put together.

These coaches are trying to win football games and go to the Super Bowl.

It's no one's business if Lamar is playing on Sunday. At least not on Monday, anyway. Like I said, if Jackson gets out there on Wednesday and is fine and practices again on Thursday and you want to confirm he's playing, that's your call as the head coach.

Me? I wouldn't blame Minter for not saying a word about it.

He has a football game to win on Sunday. I know the fans want "the truth" about Lamar, but that's really neither here nor there for the Ravens.

I'm not trying to antagonize anyone when I say this, but the fans "wanting" or "needing" or "deserving" to hear an update on Lamar's ankle injury is just not important. Not in the least.

The Ravens need to beat the Bengals by any means necessary.

It's just not smart to increase Cincinnati's chances by telling them if Lamar's playing.

---

The Orioles hired a new general manager on Monday, but that doesn't mean what you think it means.

Mike Elias is still in Baltimore and he's still in charge.

In baseball these days, the general manager's role is mostly to follow along with the day-to-day happenings within the club and monitor the constant stream of traffic from the minors to the majors, making sure the organization is completing all of the necessary paperwork, fulfilling their 40-man roster obligations and so on.

The President -- which is the role Elias has in Baltimore -- is "really" the general manager as we know that role to be. He's the guy cultivating and developing the team's 25-man roster, making off-season trades, signing free agents and, in the season, working hard on the annual MLB Draft.

Oh, I forgot to mention: The new general manager is Jared Banner. He comes from the Cubs, but also spent previous time with the Mets and Red Sox.

If you're wondering what he's done during his 18-year administrative career, Banner is probably best known for convincing the Cubs to trade for Pete Crow-Armstrong back in 2021.

Contrary to what some people think, this isn't just a "window dressing" hire by Elias. Banner will have an active role in the front office and, presumably, will at least have access to Elias on matters such as trades and free agency.

Will Banner's hiring make the Orioles better on the field?

If not, what's the point?

---

There was an incredibly disturbing scene in the WNBA Finals last night in (checks notes) San Francisco in a game between (checks notes, again) Atlanta and Golden State.

Both teams ran off the court as their warm-up ended and the singing of the National Anthem took place.

It's true.

They left as the anthem began and came back out when it was over.

This, of course, is how you avoid controversy during the playing/singing of the Star Bangled Banner during the championship series of your sport.

Just leave the floor en-masse to avoid having to hear or pay your respects to the country where you're living and earning a living and come back when it's done. No fuss, no muss.

And we thought football players taking a knee was disrespectful, right?

WNBA players want everyone to see their actions. Running off as a group sends the message they want to publish to everyone who pays attention to the league.

More importantly, they want everyone else who doesn't follow the league to know what they collectively stand for as a league. I could be wrong on this but I don't think I am based on the research I did last night: Not one player stuck around and listened to the playing of the national anthem.

Not one single person said, "Ya know, I'm thinking this is kind of a bush league thing to do. Running off the court like this before the anthem gets played. And I was raised to respect the Star Spangled Banner. So I'm going to stay out here."

Now, it's their right to protest, yes. I don't need anyone reminding me of that. There's nothing in the rules that says "You have to stay on the floor for the playing of the national anthem."

It's also not in the rules for you to say to your Aunt Betty at the annual family picnic, "Noticed you're picking up a lot of weight over the last year there, Auntie. Might want to lay off the bacon and scrapple and breakfast at try a banana or apple instead."

There's no rule against saying that to Aunt Betty, but you wouldn't say it.

So, yes, protests are allowed. So, too, is calling the women out for their temerity.

It's totally reprehensible.

Then again, I've never purchased a ticket to a WNBA game, so I'm clearly not their concern anyway.

And after seeing that episode last night, they won't be my concern in the future, either.

Monday October 19, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4439

pretty much unacceptable

I'll do what I always do on a Ravens post-mortem-Monday and not read what our outstanding Randy Morgan wrote about yesterday's fiasco-of-a-loss in Cleveland.

Once I've finished here, I'll go ahead and code and post his "Five Takeaways" piece.

Randy and I might agree on what happened on Sunday or we might have different takes on it all. That's why I write and post first and then get to him afterwards.

One thing I think we're both going to agree on is this: Anytime you lose to the Browns, it's a bad loss.

For starters, it's a division game. Those sting twice as much. And when you let Deshaun Watson get the "W" over you, you've really stunk up the joint. We all think Tyler Huntley is a "meh" quarterback, right? Well, at least we didn't give him $230 million guaranteed.

Watson is "meh" and he gets $230 million guaranteed.

Anyway...

It's going to be "pick on Huntley" day today, I suppose. At least from me.

And I'll first remind everyone he's pretty much the reason the Ravens pulled out that miracle win in Atlanta last Sunday night. Well, that and the offensive lineman of the Falcons who dropped the game-sealing TD that was in his hands late in the 4th quarter. He helped.

I wrote here yesterday I couldn't see the Ravens losing to the Browns, even with Lamar out, as long as Huntley didn't lay an egg. If he would just produced a decent, even pedestrian performance, Jesse Minter's team would have won.

Instead, Huntley couldn't do it. He couldn't even beat Deshaun Watson.

Now, did the Derrick Henry fumble crush them? Of course, it came at the worst time and at a terrible spot in the field. Even the Browns, as "Browns" as they are, can cash in when handed a golden ticket like that.

Did the Tyler Loop missed field goal hurt? Obviously it did. It's a missed three points in a game you lost by three points. Do the math.

But the game was lost because Huntley did the one thing he couldn't do. He played "down" insted of "up".

Even with Trey Hendrickson back in the lineup and getting held on every series, the Ravens still couldn't win.

And the defense, as a whole, performed admirably for most of the day. There was that long pass to Jerry Jeudy on 3rd down that helped set up the game-winning field goal at the buzzer, but that was pretty much their only big blunder of the day.

When you hold the other team to 13 points, you should almost always, always, always win the game.

But when you score 10 points, you're almost always going to lose. So there's that conundrum.

Oh, and let's not forget the Ravens raced out to a quick 10-0 lead and were pretty much in command of the game from the start until the moment Henry fumbled the football. Even at 10-3 in the fourth quarter, it looked like a game the Ravens were going to salt away with a long drive and a Loop field goal.

The fumble changed all of that.

And then the Browns did what the Browns do, missing their own go-ahead field goal later on in the fourth quarter. But the Ravens couldn't help their own cause, giving the ball right back to Cleveland after Huntley and the offense fizzled.

It wasn't all on Huntley. But you can't win games in the NFL when your quarterback plays poorly. You might steal a game here or there with a subpar QB effort, but you're going to lose more of those than you win. Ask the NY football Giants or Philadelphia Eagles about poor quarterback play when you get a chance.

We all know how this works. If Lamar plays next Sunday at home against Cincinnati, the Ravens have a great chance to win. If he doesn't play, their chances decrease dramatically.

And we're all going to stop short of saying, "Lamar's going to play against the Bengals" because we have no idea if he's going to play. What we do know, for sure, is Lamar's not playing unless he's 100% locked and loaded. If he's 75% or 85%, he's not in. So, let's hope he feels fully healthy and ready to go against Joe Burrow and Company.

If Huntley has to play against the Bengals, it's a coin-flip. At best.

There was some internet chatter about Eric DeCosta and the Ravens flubbing their back-up QB situation because, as a few people pointed out, "Huntley can't throw downfield" and "Huntley's just a game manager, nothing more".

Both of those things might very well be true. But when you spend $52 million on your 1st string QB, you're not coughing up another $5 million or more per-season on his back-up. That the Ravens have to pay Huntley $2.5 million per-season as Lamar's insurance plan is actually a bit too high. That said, Lamar's almost guaranteed to never play a full season, so you have to employ someone of competence as the second fiddle guy.

On any given Sunday, Huntley is decent enough to cobble something together and win.

But on any given Sunday, he's also capable of laying an egg. Even against the Browns.

This was a terrible loss yesterday. It's easy to say now, but lose to Atlanta and beat Cleveland if you're going to go 1-1 in those two games. Just don't lose to the freakin' Browns.

And, so, Lamar watch continues.

Yes, Derrick Henry's fumble was a game-changer.

Yes, Loop's missed field goal came back to bite the Ravens.

But when you get that kind of play from your quarterback that Huntley authored on Sunday, you're almost always going to figure out a way "not to win".

On to the Bengals...

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

1st and Five: the offense left the defense no chance

Five immediate takeaways from the Ravens' 13-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns. Go ahead and play the familiar late-game collapse hits.

Another double-digit lead disappeared. Another opponent made the decisive plays in the fourth quarter. Another game the Ravens should have won ended with the other team celebrating a last-second victory.

But this one was a little different.

The Ravens lost 13-10 to Cleveland on Sunday, falling to 4-2 and surrendering control of first place in the AFC North.

Tyler Loop missed a 49-yard field goal that would have restored a 10- point lead.

Derrick Henry lost a fumble that directly led to Cleveland's tying touchdown. And the defense surrendered a 33-yard completion to Jerry Jeudy on third down that set up the game- winning kick.

All three plays were enormously consequential.

But the real reason the Ravens lost was that their offense completely disappeared after the first two possessions.

They scored 10 points on the opening two drives, then failed to score on any of their remaining nine. Seven ended in punts, one in Henry's fumble and the other in Loop's missed field goal.

The Browns managed just 237 yards of offense, including 93 on the ground. The Ravens sacked Deshaun Watson five times and made life miserable for him throughout most of the afternoon.

That should have been enough.

At the end of the day, going 1-1 in two road games with your backup quarterback isn't the end of the world. The Ravens are still 4-2, and they demonstrated last week that they can occasionally survive without Lamar Jackson.

But Sunday was another reminder of how little margin this team has when its franchise quarterback isn't available.

With Cincinnati, Buffalo and Jacksonville coming up over the next three weeks, getting a healthy Lamar back is imperative.

Here are my five immediate takeaways.

1. We found the real Tyler Huntley

For the final two drives against Atlanta last Sunday, Tyler Huntley looked like a quarterback capable of leading a productive NFL offense.

Unfortunately, the rest of his playing time this season has looked considerably more familiar.

Huntley completed 19 of 31 passes for 165 yards and a touchdown against Cleveland, finishing with an 86.1 passer rating. He didn't throw an interception, continuing a season-long stretch of protecting the football reasonably well.

Those numbers aren't disastrous on face, but they don't come close to telling the story.

Through three appearances this season, Huntley has completed 51 of 72 passes for 429 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. That's a 70.8% completion rate and a 99.8 passer rating.

Pretty respectable, right?

Look a little closer.

Huntley is averaging just 5.96 yards per attempt, with an average target depth of only 5.99 yards. According to SumerSports, his plays have produced -0.01 expected points added (EPA) per play, with a success rate of 46.2%.

Compare that with Lamar Jackson, who has averaged 10.07 yards per attempt, generated +0.30 EPA per play and posted a 56.6% success rate this season.

The difference isn't simply that Lamar can make spectacular plays. It's that his presence forces defenses to respect the entire field and account for an additional rushing threat on virtually every snap.

With Huntley, that threat is considerably diminished.

And there probably wasn't anyone in the stadium better prepared to exploit those limitations than Todd Monken.

Cleveland's new head coach spent the previous three seasons coordinating Baltimore's offense.

He knows Huntley, understands what he does well and has seen firsthand what happens when defenses begin squeezing the field around him.

Monken wasn’t going to let Derrick Henry beat them while Huntley comfortably distributed short passes underneath. They were going to make Huntley beat them.

Cleveland entered the game playing the highest rate of man coverage in the NFL. That allowed the Browns to bring a safety closer to the line of scrimmage, commit additional defenders to Henry and challenge Huntley to win against tighter coverage.

Huntley never found a consistent answer, completing only two passes for gains of at least 12 yards, one coming on an extended play to Zay Flowers and the other on a cleverly designed reception by Josh Cuevas. Several throws that fell incomplete were dangerously close to becoming interceptions.

The Browns were able to crowd the short passing game without consistently paying for it downfield.

Across roughly two and a half games of football, outside of the late possessions in Atlanta and the opening drive Sunday, the Ravens have struggled to sustain anything resembling a dangerous passing offense.

If Lamar cannot return next week, I think Minter needs to consider giving rookie Joe Fagnano an opportunity. At this point it's pretty clear they aren’t going to beat teams that can put up points on the defense with Huntley under center.

The reality is that if Lamar is out for any of the next three games, the Ravens will probably lose.

But after an impressive preseason, I’d rather see what Fagnano can give us than sit through another torturous Huntley outing.

Hopefully, we won't have to find out.

2. The opening script worked. Then the offense disappeared.

Declan Doyle deserves credit for how the Ravens opened this game.

The first possession covered 66 yards in 11 plays, with Henry carrying five times for 30 yards before Huntley found Cuevas for a two-yard touchdown.

The second drive featured one of the most creative designs we've seen from Doyle this season.

Cuevas lined up in what appeared to be a guard's position, but was aligned off the line to remain an eligible receiver. The Browns lost track of him, and Huntley found the rookie for a 29- yard gain that helped set up Loop's 34-yard field goal.

Two possessions. Ten points. A 10-0 lead.

Then absolutely nothing.

The Ravens gained 111 yards on their opening two drives and only 124 yards on their remaining nine possessions.

That's a remarkable offensive shutdown lasting the final three quarters of the game. Cleveland deserves credit for its defensive adjustments. The Browns became increasingly aggressive attacking upfield, disrupting the blocking angles Baltimore wanted to create in its zone running game.

The Ravens entered Sunday averaging 164.4 rushing yards per game, third in the NFL. Against Cleveland, they managed just 87 yards on 23 attempts, an average of 3.8 per carry.

Henry finished with only 58 yards on 17 attempts, averaging 3.4 yards per carry. Huntley accounted for another 28 of Baltimore's 87 rushing yards. The Ravens generated -0.56 EPA per designed run, an extraordinarily poor result for an offense that has been among the league's most dangerous rushing attacks.

The running game wasn't merely failing to produce explosive plays. Too many carries were putting the offense in worse situations than it faced before the snap.

The offensive line was part of the problem today. Emery Jones struggled and Ioane had some more snap issues. Perhaps the debut of Jurgens (either at center or guard) will help clean some of that up next week.

After what Doyle accomplished against Atlanta I expected him to find more answers when Cleveland committed so heavily to stopping the conventional running game. The Browns were attacking aggressively, bringing defenders closer to the line and challenging Huntley to beat man coverage.

Where were the counters that could punish that aggression?

The Ravens looked increasingly predictable and ineffective. Of course, Doyle's playbook becomes considerably smaller when the quarterback cannot consistently threaten the defense downfield. Huntley’s one attempt at a deep ball was badly underthrown, causing Tez Walker to play defense to prevent an interception.

And the Ravens certainly weren't going to abandon Henry while protecting a lead. However, the difference between the first two possessions and everything afterward was alarming.

Then Henry’s fumble topped it off. Leading 10-3 early in the fourth quarter, the Ravens had an opportunity to protect their lead and continue draining the clock. Instead, Carson Schwesinger ripped the football away, giving Cleveland possession at Baltimore's 35. Seven plays later, the game was tied.

Loop's missed 49-yard field goal was another enormous missed opportunity.

Making that kick would have pushed the lead back to 10 points and forced Cleveland into a very different game.

It was a kick you expect an NFL kicker to make, but Loop has done enough this season that we don’t need to call for his job after each miss.

This is what life with an ordinary NFL kicker looks like. We were spoiled by the peak Justin Tucker years, when even difficult field goals felt automatic.

The larger problem was an offense that scored 10 points in its first two possessions and couldn't manufacture three more over the remaining nine.

Doyle did an excellent job preparing his opening plan.

Now he needs to demonstrate that he can keep finding answers after the defense adjusts.

3. The defense deserved a better result

The Browns finished Sunday with 237 total yards, 14 first downs and 13 points. Deshaun Watson completed 16 of 26 passes for 164 yards. Cleveland ran the ball 29 times for just 93 yards, an average of 3.2 per carry.

The Ravens sacked Watson five times, consistently disrupted the pocket and spent most of the afternoon controlling a Cleveland offense that rarely looked capable of moving the football.

It was a strong defensive performance and there were also several outstanding individual efforts.

Kyle Hamilton continues to look like one of the most valuable defensive players in football.

He finished with three tackles for loss and made some terrific reads against the run, recognizing developing plays and getting into position before Cleveland's backs could find space.

Keyon Martin was another standout.

Back in the slot role in Minter's dime packages after several weeks on the bench, Martin made several impressive plays in coverage and added a sack on a well-timed blitz.

His pass interference penalty on a late third down was particularly frustrating. Sure looked to me like a great, clean play on the football, but I guess the refs (and the only when we feel like it booth review) felt like Cleveland needed some help.

The flag extended the Browns' drive following Henry's fumble and helped Cleveland reach the end zone.

Martin also briefly appeared to save the game by blocking Cleveland's final field goal attempt, only for his own offside penalty to negate the play and give the Browns another chance. He got close again on the subsequent attempt that Szmyt made.

The return of Trey Hendrickson also made an immediate difference. After missing the previous two games following a finger procedure, Hendrickson returned with a sack and multiple pressures, giving the Ravens another legitimate threat off the edge.

Nnamdi Madubuike recorded his first sack in more than a year, while Calais Campbell added another and became one of the few players in NFL history to record a sack after turning 40.

The pass rush looked considerably more dangerous with Hendrickson available.

However, there is still one concerning trend that Jesse Minter and Anthony Weaver need to address. The Ravens continue to allow too many critical third-down conversions after dominating the early portions of games.

Cleveland converted just one of its first 10 third-down attempts, but then converted four of their final six. The biggest came on the final drive, with Watson facing third-and-5 from his own 38 and finding Jerry Jeudy for 33 yards.

One play essentially wiped out everything the Ravens had accomplished defensively to that point.

We've seen similar problems against New Orleans and Atlanta. The Ravens can dominate first and second down, put an opponent into an obvious passing situation and then somehow allow the drive to continue.

Nevertheless, I'm not placing much blame on the defense for this loss.

The offense repeatedly handed Cleveland another opportunity, eventually gave it a short field with Henry's fumble and couldn't provide any relief by sustaining possessions of its own.

There is only so much a defense can reasonably be expected to do.

Sunday, the Ravens defense did enough to win.

The offense just didn't.

4. Encouraging signs from the young pass catchers

There weren't many positive developments on offense Sunday, but I thought the performances from Josh Cuevas and Ja'Kobi Lane were encouraging.

Cuevas finished with four catches for 44 yards and his first NFL touchdown and was involved in some of Doyle’s most creative designs on the day.

Cuevas isn't simply being asked to line up as a conventional tight end and beat coverage with a basic route. Doyle is finding ways to make his alignment part of the deception and create opportunities for him to contribute.

Meanwhile, Lane returned for his first game since suffering a wrist injury in the season opener and immediately looked comfortable. The rookie caught four passes for 40 yards, providing another legitimate receiving option in an offense that has lacked dependable production beyond its established stars.

Combined with Zay Flowers' six catches for 66 yards, those three accounted for 14 of Huntley's 19 completions and 150 of his 165 passing yards.

That's 90.9% of the passing yardage.

Considering how ineffective the offense was throughout most of the afternoon, it's encouraging that the younger targets were producing much of what little success Baltimore managed.

And their emergence may become increasingly important.

Rashod Bateman left Sunday's game in the second quarter with a shoulder injury and did not return. He had been dealing with the same shoulder issue during the week, raising concerns about whether he'll be available against Cincinnati.

Bateman had been enjoying a bounce-back season after last year's disappointing production. Losing him for any extended period would leave an already thin receiving group with even fewer established options.

Lane's return suddenly looks particularly well-timed.

The Ravens spent valuable draft capital addressing their receiving depth. Now some of those young players are beginning to show why.

There's still a considerable difference between producing a few promising catches and becoming a consistently reliable NFL target.

But Sunday offered evidence that Baltimore may have more options than we thought.

And those options could become considerably more valuable when Jackson returns.

5. The Ravens are now in a battle for the AFC North

A week ago, the Ravens were 4-1, riding a three-game winning streak and sitting alone atop the AFC North.

After Sunday's loss, the division suddenly looks considerably more complicated.

The Steelers staged a late comeback to steal their game in Tampa Bay, leaving Baltimore, Cleveland and Pittsburgh all 4-2, while Cincinnati sits at 3-2 after its bye week.

The Browns currently own the divisional tiebreaker thanks to victories over both the Ravens and Steelers.

The Ravens had a chance to take control of the race with a win in Cleveland and instead find themselves looking up at Cleveland with a dangerous Bengals game looming.

Cleveland deserves credit for finding ways to win, but I'm still skeptical about how good this Browns team really is.

Deshaun Watson threw for only 164 yards Sunday and spent most of the afternoon looking thoroughly uncomfortable. The Browns were held scoreless in the first half and needed a short field, a questionable pass interference penalty and a handful of late defensive breakdowns to generate enough offense to win.

Their defense is legitimate, and winning four close games requires making plays when they matter but repeatedly relying on late comebacks to rescue an ineffective offense doesn't strike me as a particularly sustainable formula.

Pittsburgh is a different problem. The Steelers spent much of Sunday getting thoroughly outplayed by a struggling Tampa Bay team before Aaron Rodgers led a furious comeback from a 16-3 fourth-quarter deficit to win 26-19 in overtime.

That's a very Steelers way to win a football game.

They haven't looked particularly dominant this season. The offense can be inconsistent and the roster has some obvious limitations. But they appear to be capable of beating opponents they're supposed to beat, staying competitive against better teams and accumulating enough wins to remain relevant deep into December.

And then there's Cincinnati.

The Bengals are only 3-2, but they have Joe Burrow, a dangerous collection of receiving options and an extra week to prepare for their trip to Baltimore.

That game suddenly carries considerably more significance than it appeared to a week ago.

A Ravens victory would put them at 5-2, hand Cincinnati another loss and restore some control over their position in the division.

A loss would leave them at 4-3, winless in their first two divisional games and potentially staring up at multiple rivals in the standings.

Which brings us back to Lamar Jackson.

The Ravens have now played two full games without him and managed a 1-1 record.

Considering both games were on the road and the team has been dealing with significant offensive-line injuries, that's not a catastrophic result.

But the Ravens were built to contend for a championship, not merely survive stretches with a backup quarterback.

Huntley deserves credit for what he accomplished in Atlanta, and the coaching staff deserves credit for finding a way to win without its most important player.

Sunday showed the limits of that approach.

The defense can keep opponents under control. Doyle can manufacture a few creative opportunities. Henry can still punish defenses when the blocking and numbers work in his favor.

But when the opponent begins taking away those advantages, the Ravens need a quarterback capable of forcing the defense to reconsider its entire plan.

That's what Lamar does.

And with the AFC North suddenly wide open and three difficult games approaching, the Ravens desperately need him back.

Sunday's loss was frustrating, but hardly season-defining.

What happens next might be, though.

	#DMD GAME DAY Week 6 Sunday — October 18, 2026 Issue #4438
	Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns 1:00 PM EDT Huntington Bank Field Cleveland, OH Spread: Ravens (-3)

they can't lose today...can they?

By "they" above, I mean, of course, the Ravens.

I know the storyline. Or the main one, at least. Lamar's not playing. And that means Tyler Huntley has to come in from the bullpen today and once again lead the Ravens offense.

The other storyline is Todd Monken, the erstwhile, occasionally embattled Ravens offensive coordinator who is off to a 3-2 start in his first season as the Browns head coach. Monken will put a little special emphasis on this one today, I'm guessing.

I know people in Northern Ohio get agitated with this, but it's true: The Browns are still the Browns. They're gonna "Browns" at the worst possible time, like last Sunday when they somehow lost to the Jets.

And Deshaun Watson is their quarterback, which works against them more often than it works for them. Now, it's fair to point out that Watson has a shiny new toy to throw to in second-round pick Denzel Boston, but that's pretty much his one and only big-time weapon.

This game will be about the quarterbacks. Can Watson play "up" enough to beat the Ravens? And can Huntley do enough to manuever the Ravens into the win column?

Here's the deal: And please don't think I'm taking a swipe at Huntley because I'm not. It's an overall theme about today's game. The Ravens are fortunate they're not playing a real team this afternoon. They got away with it last Sunday night in Atlanta because the Falcons threw a lob to a wide-open offensive tackle and he couldn't catch the easiest-pass-in-franchise-history.

But today, they're playing a perennial league patsy.

If the Ravens were playing one of the AFC's better teams or, Cincinnati even, they'd be in deep doo-doo. Fortunately, they get the Browns.

Even with Huntley the Ravens are still favored, which probably says more about Cleveland than it does the bookmaker's faith in Huntley.

As I noted here yesterday, though, the Ravens can't afford for Huntley to have an off-day. He can have a "B" game and that's fine. Even a C+ game will probably be enough, as long as he doesn't do something goofy like fumble the ball with 3 minutes left and the Ravens down by two points.

The only way the Ravens can lose today, I think, is if Huntley stinks it up, throws a pick or two, and Cleveland does enough on offense to squeeze out a win.

I'm going to stop short of saying "there's no way the Ravens can lose today" because I know how they could, even though I don't think it will happen.

I didn't think Maryland was going to lose to Rutgers yesterday, either. Well, wait, come to think of it, I sorta-kinda did think there was a chance they could lose. They're really, really bad, are the Terps.

I don't "see" the Ravens losing today, but it mostly depends on Huntley. If he can just manage his way up and down the field a dozen times and not give the ball away, Jesse Minter's team should be able to score well into the 20's and I don't see any way the Browns can do that.

I'll give Cleveland one touchdown "just because", but that's it.

Derrick Henry runs wild for 159 yards and 2 TD's and Huntley finds Zay Flowers on a 23 yarder early in the 4th quarter to seal the deal.

Tyler Loop hits from 44 and 47 yards.

And the Ravens win one in comfy fashion, 27-13.

---

show me the money, week #6

Molly had another nice week in Week #5, going 3-2 and hiting her "Best Bet" as well.

I was 3-2 yet again and, like Molly, connected on my "Best Bet".

Teddy? Not so good. Our resident "expert" (his words, not mine) produced another lousy Sunday, going 2-3 and yet again missing his "Best Bet". He's now 0-5 on his Best Bet of the Week play.

It turns out Teddy doesn't know ball, huh?

It's my turn to make the picks this week. I've got a few doozies for those two.

Year to Date

1. Molly - 18-7 (3-2 Best Bet)

2. DF -- 12-13 (3-2 Best Bet)

3. Teddy Knowsball -- 8-17 (0-5 Best Bet)

Today's games:

New Orleans at NY Giants (+1.5)

DF -- Don't look now, but the Giants haven't yet lost at home. To be fair, they've played three pretty lousy teams. That said, 3-0 is 3-0. And what happened to the Saints after that win in Baltimore? Tanks-ville. They're terrible. Pick: Giants (+1.5)

Teddy -- Pick: Saints (-1.5)

Molly -- Pick: Saints (-1.5) (Best Bet of the Week)

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (+2.5)

DF: This feels like one of those games the Steelers always win 16-14 or 19-16. Like, they do nothing on offense but scrape together a decent defensive performance and somehow win. I hate to say it, but... Pick: Steelers (-2.5)

Teddy -- Pick: Steelers (-2.5)

Molly -- Pick: Buccaneers (+2.5)

L.A. Chargers at Kansas City (-7.5)

DF -- Is this the week the Chargers win? Oh no, no, no. It's not. But it is the week they take a 26-24 lead with 45 seconds remaining, only to have Kansas City buzz right down the field and hit the game-winning field goal at the buzzer. Pick: Chargers (+7.5)

Teddy -- Pick: Chiefs (-7.5) (Best Bet of the Week)

Molly -- Pick: Chargers (+7.5)

Buffalo at Las Vegas (+5.5)

DF -- I can see Buffalo losing this game. Big, emotional win on Monday night in Los Angeles. Short week. Stayed out on the west coast. Player's wives calling them all week complaining because they have to watch the kids while the players bask in Sin City. I'll call a Buffalo win here, but well under the 5.5 points. Pick: Raiders (+5.5) (Best Bet of the Week)

Teddy -- Pick: Bills (-5.5)

Molly -- Pick: Bills (-5.5)

Baltimore at Cleveland (+3)

DF -- There's just no way the Ravens lose this game unless Huntley lays a big egg. This spread really should be more like 5.5 or 6.5 points. Pick: Ravens (-3)

Teddy -- Pick: Ravens (-3)

Molly -- Pick: Browns (+3)

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

ravens-browns: can baltimore win with defense?

With Lamar Jackson sidelined for another week, the Ravens face a divisional opponent whose strengths and weaknesses present an unusually interesting matchup. Derrick Henry has an opportunity to exploit Cleveland's vulnerable run defense, but the biggest advantage might belong to Jesse Minter's defense.

The Ravens are 4-1, winners of three straight games and sitting atop the AFC North. Tyler Huntley just engineered an improbable fourth-quarter comeback in Atlanta, the defense is showing encouraging signs of improvement and Trey Hendrickson is expected to return after missing two games.

Things could certainly be worse.

But Lamar Jackson will miss his second consecutive game Sunday, and the Ravens now have to navigate their first divisional matchup without the player responsible for so much of their offensive success.

Cleveland is a particularly interesting opponent under these circumstances.

The Browns are 3-2 under former Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken, with all three victories coming by four points or fewer. They have a negative-19 point differential and rank near the bottom of the league in several important offensive categories. Their defense, however, has been considerably better, particularly against the pass.

Cleveland has been one of the NFL's best teams at pressuring quarterbacks and limiting passing efficiency, but one of the worst at preventing explosive runs. The Ravens happen to have Derrick Henry, a quarterback they would prefer not to expose to obvious passing situations, and an offensive line operating with yet another makeshift interior.

Meanwhile, Cleveland's offense has struggled to protect Deshaun Watson and generate anything resembling a consistent running game. That should create opportunities for a Ravens defense looking to build upon its performance in Atlanta.

1. Can the Ravens exploit Cleveland's explosive run problem?

There may not be a more favorable statistical matchup for the Ravens offense this week.

Through five games, Cleveland ranks 28th in defensive rushing EPA, a measure of how much value an offense gains on each rushing play. More revealingly, the Browns have allowed runs of at least 10 yards on 15.7% of designed rushing attempts, the worst rate in the NFL.

The Ravens, meanwhile, rank fifth in rushing EPA and fifth in explosive-run rate, generating gains of at least 10 yards on 13.3% of designed runs.

Those numbers describe a defense that has repeatedly allowed opponents to turn ordinary rushing opportunities into significant gains, meeting an offense capable of doing exactly that. And with Huntley starting, explosive runs become even more valuable.

The Ravens ran for 208 yards against Atlanta last Sunday, including 102 from Henry and 73 from Justice Hill. Hill's 47-yard run was particularly important because it demonstrated that Baltimore can still create an explosive rushing play without requiring the defense to worry about Jackson keeping the ball.

Henry has 476 yards on 113 carries this season, averaging 4.2 per attempt. He has been productive, although his individual efficiency has not been quite as impressive as the team's rushing numbers. Much of the Ravens overall rushing advantage has been created through a combination of quarterback runs, secondary backs and explosive gains rather than Henry consistently overwhelming every opponent.

Against Cleveland, Doyle should have opportunities to create those gains deliberately. The Browns have been vulnerable when opponents get blockers moving into the second level and create poor tackling angles for their linebackers and safeties.

The Ravens can attack that with downhill gap runs, counter concepts that change the initial point of attack and occasional outside runs that force Cleveland's defenders to pursue across the formation.

Hill should remain an important part of the plan, too. His speed presents a different problem from Henry's physical running style, and using both backs can prevent the defense from settling into one set of run fits.

Cleveland's personnel situation could make this matchup even more favorable. Defensive tackle Mason Graham, who recorded four sacks in his first four games, is questionable with knee and ankle injuries. Linebacker Carson Schwesinger, the Browns' leading tackler, is also questionable. Interior defensive linemen Mike Hall Jr. and Kalia Davis have already been ruled out.

Even with those injuries, the Browns have legitimate defensive talent. Jared Verse and Isaiah McGuire can disrupt plays from the edge, while Maliek Collins provides an interior pass-rushing threat.

The more concerning issue for Baltimore is its own offensive line.

Cam Jurgens’ Ravens debut will be delayed another game while he recovers from a concussion, leaving rookie Vega Ioane at center. John Simpson has been dealing with a groin injury, although he carries no game designation, while Andrew Vorhees and Emery Jones Jr. are questionable.

The encouraging news is that Ioane has been outstanding in his unexpected role. After neutralizing Jeffery Simmons in his first start at center against Tennessee, Ioane followed that performance by allowing zero pressures against Atlanta.

According to PFF data, he has now gone consecutive games without surrendering a pressure, bringing his season-long pressure rate allowed down to just 3.7%, the lowest among rookie offensive linemen with at least 125 pass-blocking snaps.

The problem is that winning his individual assignments does not automatically solve the entire offensive line. Cleveland can attack the gaps around Ioane with Collins and potentially Graham, using twists and stunts to test how quickly the guards recognize and exchange assignments.

With Huntley less capable of escaping interior pressure than Jackson, one communication failure could derail an otherwise promising possession.

There is also the matter of the Ravens diminishing tight end depth. Durham Smythe is out for the season, and Matthew Hibner will miss Sunday's game with a hand injury. Nick Vannett provided useful blocking against Atlanta, playing 19 snaps, but they have fewer credible combinations available when they want to use multiple tight ends.

That makes execution and presentation particularly important.

Doyle cannot simply line up Henry behind a reshuffled offensive line, repeatedly announce where the football is going and expect Cleveland's season-long rushing numbers to do the work. The goal should be to create favorable angles and get Henry or Hill into the second level before the Browns can recover.

A handful of 10- and 15-yard runs would do more than improve Henry's box score. They would keep Huntley out of the long-yardage situations where Cleveland's defense becomes considerably more dangerous.

2. Can Declan Doyle and Tyler Huntley open up the offense more?

Huntley deserves plenty of credit for what happened in Atlanta.

He completed 24 of 32 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns, then scored the game- winning touchdown himself in overtime. After an afternoon of limited offensive production, he found his rhythm late, completing 12 consecutive passes during the comeback.

The Ravens needed their backup quarterback to deliver in the most important moments.

He did.

But the final numbers and dramatic finish conceal a fairly limited passing attack for much of the game.

Huntley averaged only 6.3 yards per pass attempt, and most of Baltimore's passing offense operated close to the line of scrimmage. Zay Flowers caught eight passes for just 53 yards. Mark Andrews contributed four catches for 28.

Huntley was accurate and generally careful with the football, but he rarely forced Atlanta to defend the deeper areas of the field.

That approach is understandable when a backup quarterback is making his first start of the season. Doyle wanted to provide easy completions, minimize the risk of turnovers and allow the running game to carry the offense.

The problem is that Cleveland is much better equipped to attack that approach. The Browns rank fifth in defensive EPA allowed per dropback and fifth in defensive sack rate, bringing down opposing quarterbacks on 8.2% of passing plays.

They also play man coverage more frequently than any other defense in football, using it on approximately 47% of their snaps. That combination could create serious problems if Huntley remains reluctant to push the football beyond the first few yards.

Man coverage allows Cleveland's defensive backs to challenge receivers directly rather than surrendering easy space underneath. If the Browns become convinced that Huntley will consistently settle for short throws, they can crowd those routes and make Baltimore sustain long possessions without a negative play.

That is a dangerous proposition behind the Ravens' current offensive line.

However, there is one particularly interesting matchup that could give Doyle an opportunity to attack Cleveland's biggest passing-defense vulnerability.

Zay Flowers has been one of the best slot receivers in football, and Cleveland has struggled defending the slot.

According to PFF, Flowers has generated 318 receiving yards from the slot this season, the most in the NFL. The Browns rank 25th in yards allowed to opposing slot receivers.

Even more interestingly, Flowers has produced 4.04 yards per route run against man coverage, seventh among NFL receivers.

That is an unusually favorable combination for the Ravens.

Cleveland's defense has generally been excellent against the pass, but its preferred coverage approach happens to create opportunities for the receiver who has been Baltimore's most productive offensive weapon.

Doyle does not need to ask Huntley to suddenly become an aggressive downfield passer to take advantage of Flowers. He can create opportunities within the intermediate areas of the field where Huntley should be more comfortable operating.

Moving Flowers into the slot gives him more room to work in either direction. Stacked alignments and bunch formations can prevent Cleveland's defensive backs from pressing him at the line of scrimmage. Motion can reveal whether the defense is following him in man coverage, helping Huntley identify his target before the snap.

Flowers has also demonstrated that he can turn an ordinary completion into an explosive gain after the catch. A 12-yard completion that becomes a 25-yard gain is every bit as valuable as a beautifully thrown deep ball.

If Cleveland devotes additional coverage attention to Flowers inside, Bateman and Andrews should have opportunities elsewhere. If the Browns maintain their normal coverage assignments, the Ravens should be willing to keep feeding Flowers until Cleveland demonstrates it can stop him.

The bigger question is whether the Ravens can expand their passing offense without taking unnecessary risks.

There is a difference between asking Huntley to throw deep because the offense needs more explosive plays and designing opportunities that make intermediate completions more accessible.

The Flowers matchup suggests Doyle has a realistic path to the latter.

Huntley does not have to reproduce Lamar's explosiveness to win this game. But Baltimore cannot afford to spend three quarters refusing to attack beyond the sticks and assume another late comeback will materialize.

The encouraging part of Atlanta was that Huntley eventually demonstrated he could make the necessary throws.

Now Doyle needs to create those opportunities before the Ravens are desperate.

3. Can Trey Hendrickson turn Cleveland's protection problems into a defensive victory?

This might be the matchup that ultimately decides the game.

Cleveland has allowed 19 sacks through five games, including eight last week against the Jets. The Browns have surrendered quarterback hits on 20.1% of dropbacks, one of the worst rates in football, and their 10.3% sack rate allowed is the highest in the league.

Deshaun Watson has contributed to the problem with a tendency to hold the football while looking for an escape route or a receiver to uncover, allowing pressure to become sacks rather than incompletions.

That is particularly damaging for an offense that already struggles on early downs. Cleveland ranks last in rushing EPA, with Quinshon Judkins averaging just 3.0 yards per carry. The Browns are 30th in third-down conversion rate at 30.6% and 31st in red-zone touchdown efficiency at 45.5%.

Put those numbers together and the formula becomes obvious.

If the Ravens can limit Cleveland's early-down rushing success, they should create plenty of passing situations where Watson must operate behind a struggling offensive line.

That is where Hendrickson can smell blood. He was signed to provide exactly the kind of individual pass-rushing threat they have lacked in recent seasons. A defender capable of consistently defeating an offensive tackle without needing a linebacker or safety to create the opening.

His absence has been noticeable.

The Ravens have recorded sacks on just 5.1% of opposing dropbacks, ranking 21st in the NFL. Minter has been able to create occasional disruption through pressure designs and the versatility of Kyle Hamilton, but the defense has not consistently overwhelmed opposing quarterbacks with a conventional four-man rush.

Getting Hendrickson back alongside Mike Green, Tavius Robinson and a healthier Nnamdi Madubuike gives the Ravens considerably more options.

Cleveland is also dealing with offensive-line injuries. Right guard Teven Jenkins has been ruled out, adding to an already vulnerable protection unit.

Minter should be able to create favorable matchups without resorting to constant blitzing. Watson is capable of hurting a defense in the right circumstances. The last time he faced the Ravens, in November 2023, he produced one of his best performances in Cleveland.

Watson completed all 14 second-half passes for 134 yards and a touchdown, helping the Browns erase a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit and beat Baltimore 33-31.

He can still extend a play and deliver an explosive completion if the pass rush loses containment. The Ravens need to avoid allowing Cleveland to compensate for several unsuccessful offensive plays with one long completion.

That makes disciplined pressure preferable to simply sending extra defenders at Watson on every third down. Hendrickson and Green need to win their individual matchups while maintaining rush lanes.

The interior defenders need to prevent Watson from stepping comfortably into the pocket. The secondary should be able to protect against deep routes without constantly worrying about covering receivers one-on-one behind aggressive blitzes.

And when Watson does escape, defenders need to finish the play rather than allowing a scramble to erase two successful defensive snaps.

This will be Monken's first game against the Ravens since departing to become Cleveland's head coach. He spent three seasons designing Baltimore's offense, so he understands many of the principles that have made the Ravens successful.

Of course, Baltimore also knows Monken.

Familiarity works both ways, and Minter's defense is not the same unit Monken practiced against over the past three years.

4. Will Minter continue using heavier defensive personnel?

One of the most interesting adjustments against Atlanta was Minter's increased reliance on traditional linebackers and heavier defensive looks.

The Ravens spent much of their opener against Indianapolis using nickel and dime packages, including formations with Kyle Hamilton functioning almost like a second linebacker alongside Roquan Smith.

Against Atlanta and its talented rushing attack, they played much heavier, with their highest portion of base defense on the season. And it worked well enough against Bijan Robinson and the Falcons to make the approach worth considering again.

The question is whether Cleveland presents the same kind of problem.

On paper, probably not.

The Browns rank last in rushing efficiency and operate from shotgun on 77.8% of their offensive snaps, the highest rate in football. Monken is considerably more inclined to spread the formation and throw than to build an offense around repeated downhill carries.

That suggests Minter may return to more nickel and dime looks, keeping additional defensive backs on the field to match Cleveland's receivers while using Hamilton and Malaki Starks to provide flexibility against the run.

But Cleveland's passing personnel presents a more complicated challenge than its overall offensive ranking suggests. Rookie Denzel Boston has emerged as one of the NFL's most dangerous vertical receivers, leading the Browns with 330 receiving yards and averaging 20.6 yards per reception.

He has already produced three touchdowns and several explosive gains, including receptions of 55 and 60 yards.

At 6-foot-4, Boston presents an uncomfortable combination of size, catch radius and downfield ability. Nate Wiggins has the speed to compete with him vertically, while Marlon Humphrey provides a more physical alternative, but neither matchup is one Minter should simply leave isolated without considering the coverage structure.

The Ravens have generally tried to limit explosive plays by keeping defenders positioned to prevent receivers from getting behind the coverage. Against Boston, that approach makes sense.

The challenge is what happens underneath.

Tight end Harold Fannin Jr. has become a useful part of Monken's passing game, giving Watson a reliable option in the middle of the field. He can settle into open spaces against zone coverage or create separation against linebackers when Cleveland spreads the formation.

KC Concepcion, who cleared concussion protocol Friday and is expected to play, adds another option capable of catching a short pass and creating yardage afterward.

This is where Baltimore's defensive versatility should become an advantage. Hamilton can begin near the line of scrimmage before retreating into coverage. Starks can rotate down to handle underneath responsibilities or remain deep as part of a two-safety structure. Minter can present the same pre-snap alignment and create different assignments after the snap.

That should make it more difficult for Watson to identify where his favorable matchup will be. But the disguise only works if everyone executes the adjustment correctly.

Against Atlanta, the priority was preventing the run game from controlling the offense. Against Cleveland, the priority should be forcing Watson into predictable passing situations and then preventing him from escaping with an explosive play.

5. Can the defense finally be the reason the Ravens win?

For most of the Lamar Jackson era, the Ravens have been at their most dangerous when the offense forces opponents to chase points.

The defense can then attack quarterbacks who have become predictable, knowing Baltimore's offense is capable of answering almost any scoring drive.

That is not the situation this week.

The Ravens probably cannot count on Huntley leading five touchdown drives against a Cleveland defense that excels at limiting passing efficiency.

The defense may need to win this game on its own terms. Last week gave reasons to believe it can. The Ravens surrendered only 16 offensive points. Seven of the Falcons' 23 came on a fumble returned for a touchdown.

The defense created negative plays, limited the impact of Atlanta's rushing attack and eventually sealed the game with Hamilton's interception in overtime.

Starks looked far more comfortable in his expanded role. Simpson was productive around the line of scrimmage. Madubuike continued to work his way back into a significant workload, playing 53 snaps.

And now Hendrickson returns.

This is closer to the defensive group the Ravens imagined when they brought Minter back to Baltimore.

It has not all been convincing.

The Ravens still rank only 16th in defensive EPA per play and have allowed opponents to convert 41.5% of third downs, ranking 19th. They have produced important stops and turnovers without consistently dominating opponents from one possession to the next.

But Cleveland offers an opportunity to change that.

The Browns have scored only 18.6 points per game and have struggled to sustain drives. They cannot consistently run the ball, their offensive line has allowed too much penetration and Watson has a tendency to turn manageable passing situations into disastrous negative plays.

The Jets showed last week that Cleveland's offensive line can be overwhelmed, but they also demonstrated how important it is to prevent Watson from compensating with isolated explosive completions.

If the Ravens can do that, Huntley should have enough opportunities to generate the points necessary for a victory.

And perhaps the most encouraging outcome would be a win where the defense does not need the offense to rescue it.

Randy's prediction: Ravens 24, Browns 20

Saturday October 17, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4437

saturday "best of" with john lehr

Longtime #DMD contributor John Lehr sent this over to me on Wednesday and asked if I was interested in running it.

Of course I am.

I love lists.

And I also enjoy doing "best of" kind of things, including looking at albums that bands put out labeled "Best of" or "Greatest Hits" and then asking, "Why didn't they put that song on the album?"

John threw 10 "best" options at me and I answered them all. This should also be fun for you, the reader, because you can hop right in with your own thoughts in the Comments section below.

As always, here is where I'll remind you that I also welcome your contribution if you're interested in appearing in a future edition of #DMD. Just e-mail it to me: 18inarow@gmail.com

Before we get to the fun, let's talk about the big story from Friday.

Lamar Jackson is OUT for tomorrow's game in Cleveland.

That shouldn't matter, of course. The Ravens can beat the Browns with your Uncle Ned at QB, I think. But every game Lamar doesn't play is another opportunity for a "down day" from Tyler Huntley and, with that, a potential loss. Huntley's best isn't as good as Lamar's best, of course, and, because of that, a game where Huntley is, say, 47% efficient could wind up being the difference between winning and losing.

I'm not trying to speak a loss into coming true, obviously. I'm just saying Lamar doesn't have many 47% games, which is why the Ravens win a lot with him at QB. They won last Sunday night in Atlanta with Tyler's overall game efficiency at somewhere around 65%, I'd say. They can beat Cleveland with that tomorrow. But if he throws a shoe and offers up a 50% efficiency outing, who knows?

I don't know what to make of Lamar's absence other than repeating what is the worst kept secret in Owings Mills. No one is surprised he isn't playing. Lamar doesn't like to play unless he's 100%.

And, so, on we go with John Lehr's morning offering:

Best Baseball Player You've Ever Seen:

DF: "It has to be Shohei. I saw Roberto Clemente when I was very young but don't really remember much of that experience. He could obviously do it all, though. I thought Mike Trout was amazing. I thought Ichiro was amazing.

Ichiro is probably my "favorite" non-Orioles player ever, but the best baseball player I've seen is Shohei Ohtani. I was there in Baltimore a few years ago when he hit a 460 foot homer and in the bottom half of that inning threw a 102 mph pitch. As I said to my son leaving the ballpark, "As long as you live, you'll never see another guy do what Shohei did tonight. Hit a 460 homer and threw a pitch over 100 miles per hour."

Best Football Player You've Ever Seen:

DF: "This one's tricky. Don't get me wrong, quarterbacks are football players. But for the purposes of this question, I think I'm going to disqualify quarterbacks to make it a bit easier. That way, I'm not debating between Tom Brady and Joe Montana and Peyton Manning.

I'm going to go with Lawrence Taylor, but I can't stop thinking the answer might be Deion Sanders or even Ray Lewis. I know, I know, they're all three defensive players. For some reason, I feel like the "toughest" guys are on the defensive side of the ball and the more "athletic" guys are on the offensive side of the ball. And, to me, football is about "tough".

Lawrence Taylor was a wrecking ball. So, too, was Ray. Deion did it with a little more style and flair, of course. He might not have been as tough as he was "flashy", but Deion was a game-changing player. All three of those guys were.

If you asked me to name the one football player I've ever seen play for MY team, it would definitely be Tom Brady. But if you're asking me who the best football player was (that I've seen), it's Lawrence Taylor.

Best Stadium You've Ever Been To:

DF: Again, this one's slippery, because you're not suggesting a sport or an arena. You're saying "stadium", which means, I think, arenas are not in the mix.

If we're talking strictly from watching the game and taking in the entire experience and being there "in the moment", the best stadium I've ever been to is Fenway Park. And, yes, it's mostly a s**thole. I get it. Terrible, tight seats, poor sight lines and so on. But it's a mecca. It's a living, breathing sports museum right there in front of you.

So Fenway Park is my answer.

Now, if you're asking me what's the "best" in terms of construction and amenities and all of that other stuff stadium designers care about, I'd say the best place I've been is the new Cowboys Stadium in Dallas (Arlington?). That place is amazing.

Wait, don't go anywhere. Because the best stadium to watch a sporting event is Chavez Ravine in L.A. You like how I massaged three answers into one? Nothing beats watching a baseball game in Los Angeles on a warm Tuesday night in July.

But if you said to me, "We can go anywhere tonight and watch a game in any stadium you want", I'd choose Fenway Park. Also on a Tuesday night in July. Not in April.

Best Golf Course You've Ever Played:

DF: Definitely Pine Valley in New Jersey. I only got to play it once, and it was on a Monday, so the pro shop and restaurant were closed, which was a bummer, but the course itself was absolutely spectacular. It's #1 in the United States (or thereabouts) for a reason. It's amazing.

I was also fortunate to play Pebble Beach on a Chamber-of-Commerce October Saturday back in 2019. And those four holes along the cove, #7, #8, #9 and #10, are beyond breathtaking.

I have a saying: Most times in golf, the course doesn't live up to the hype. I've always thought that about Pinehurst #2, for example. Don't get me wrong, it's a great course. But it's very overhyped. Pebble Beach definitely lived up to the hype.

But Pine Valley is the "best" course I've played.

And if anyone reading this has played Augusta National and is snickering under your breath about how much better Augusta is than Pine Valley, you know how to reach out to me if you can get us both on down there. I'll happily revise my "best" list.

Best Album You've Ever Heard:

DF: I kind of thought this one was coming. And, man, I don't know how I'm going to narrow this one down. Holy cow.

Born To Run is a masterpiece. How Springsteen, at that age, came up with those songs is beyond me. There's not a bad song on the album.

Likewise, there's not a bad song on the Pete Yorn album, Musicforthemorningafter. Pete Yorn is obviously a bit more obscure than Springsteen, but that album was amazing from song one until the end.

Rush's Moving Pictures is also a consideration for me. Every song was perfect. That it had their best radio hit ever, Tom Sawyer, might detract from it a bit, but it was an amazing album nonetheless.

Pearl Jam's Ten has to be considered.

And while I'm not the biggest Michael Jackson fan in the world, Thriller was phenomenal for sure. That dude could definitely sing.

My final answer is Born To Run.

Best Restaurant In Baltimore:

DF: I assume you mean currently? If so, that's easy. Sammy's Trattoria (either location) is the winner hands down. Amazing Italian food and great wines.

I've been a lifelong fan of both Chips and Sabs in Little Italy, but, food wise, neither of them beats Sammy's. Tio Pepe also lives up to the hype, as does the Manor Tavern. You're also never going to get a bad meal at the Valley Inn these days.

But right now, the best restaurant in Baltimore is Sammy's.

Best Sports Broadcaster:

DF: Well, if you're just talking "excellence", than it has to be Jim Nantz. He can call a football game, basketball game and golf tournament within 72 hours of one another and put together incredible play-by-play accounts in all three.

If you're asking me, though, to name the best sports broadcaster of any sport I've ever heard, it's definitely Gary Thorne calling NHL hockey.

Thorne is a good baseball play-by-play, no doubt. But his hockey calls are spectacular. He was made to do hockey play-by-play.

I also think Ian Eagle is great at basketball play-by-play. That's not to say he isn't awesome doing football...he is. But he is at the top of his game doing basketball play-by-play.

Best Baltimore Sports Moment Of Your Life:

DF: Wow, now this one is going to take me a minute. Personally, for me, it would be the Blast winning the 1984 MISL Championship because I worked for the team at that time.

But we (me) can do better than that. I guess the easy answer is the Orioles winning the 1983 World Series. But that wasn't at home...Game 5 came on the road. I still think it counts as a "Baltimore" sports moment. The Orioles are Baltimore's team. Same with the Ravens, they've won two Super Bowls and both were not in Baltimore. But I still count those as "Baltimore" sports moments.

I'll give you two off-the-radar-screen moments that really stand out to me for some reason. The Ravens/Minnesota "snow game" a decade or so ago and the night the Orioles eliminated the Red Sox from the playoffs on the Robert Andino hit. Neither of those were championship moments or anything, but both were very memorable.

If you pressed me really hard for an answer, I'd say the Ravens winning their second Super Bowl. Maybe it was just because I was there? I don't know. I just feel like "anyone" can win one. Try winning a second or a third, though. It's not easy. And there was something magical about Ray's last ride, too, don't forget.

Best Round Of Golf You've Ever Played:

Hmmmm, this one is interesting. I guess for score (69) and impact, I'd say the U.S. Senior Open qualifier at Argyle in 2021 when I was fortunate enough to make it to the Senior Open at Omaha CC.

But I've had far better rounds, technically. I have a 64 at both Mount Pleasant and Clifton Park in non-competitive (tournament) rounds and a 67 at Mount Pleasant and 65 at Clifton in tournament play.

I once birdied all five of the par 3's in the same round at Rolling Road in the (2000?) Baltimore City Amateur and shot 70 that day. Longtime head professional Bill Bassler Sr. told me he'd never heard of anyone doing that in a tournament round at RR.

I had a day with our own David Rosenfeld once at Rum Pointe maybe five years ago where I hit all 18 greens and all 18 fairways and shot 6 under and had a putt for 7 under on the last hole and missed it. I actually might say that was the "best round of golf" I've ever played since it was almost perfect from an execution standpoint.

Best Moment Of Your Sports Talk Radio Career:

DF: It's definitely hanging up on Bob Huggins, who was then the head coach at the University of West Virginia. I think WVU was playing Morgan State in the first round of the NCAA tournament and we got Huggins on to talk about that game. He was clearly already thinking about their second game and had no interest at all in talking about Morgan State.

I welcomed him on to the show and he mumbled "Good Morning" and you could actually hear him sighing through the phone.

I asked him a question about Morgan State's defense and how he planned to attack it and he again mumbled something for 10 seconds and just stopped. "We know they can defend the rim. We just have to make sure we make our shots."

I asked him something else and he mumbled another 10 second answer.

I asked him one more question and he sounded half-asleep again and I just said, "Well, this was great Coach. We wish you and the Mountaineers all the best on Thursday" and just disconnected with him and that was that.

So, yeah, I hung up on Bob Huggins. I mean, if you're not interested in talking for 5 minutes about the only thing in the world that you're good at -- coaching college basketball -- then we should just move on.

Friday October 16, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4436

milwaukee now, baltimore next?

So, that was a really cool scene last night in Los Angeles.

The Brewers reached their first World Series since 1982 with 6-4 win over the Dodgers, completing a 4-game sweep and doing so while trailing at some point in all four games.

I was a little bummed for L.A., if only because I'm fan of historical sports accomplishments and seeing them win a third straight World Series would have been a treat.

But I'm more than happy for the Brewers, who were the better team during the regular season and then clearly outclassed the Dodgers in the NLCS.

From a local standpoint, we should all be galvanized by the fact that the Brew Crew is heading to the World Series.

Why?

Because that could be the Orioles in a year or two.

I'm not talking about from a personnel standpoint or anything like that. I'm talking more about market size and the way most people assume Milwaukee can't beat the big boys like Philly, Atlanta and the Dodgers, just like folks assume the O's can't beat teams like the Yankees and Red Sox when the chips are down.

The Orioles could do the same thing the Brewers just did. Right?

I mean, a lot has to fall into place for them, just like a lot fell into place for the Brewers. And to think that they had to beat both the Padres and Dodgers to get to the World Series. That's impressive.

Now, let's not get it twisted. Milwaukee, as a team, on the field, is obviously light years ahead of the Orioles right now. But they have a core of 3-4 terrific players just like the Orioles could have a "core four" of guys like Gunnar, Westburg, Holliday and Basallo.

Maybe I'm just too much of a dreamer. If so, I'll own that.

But the Milwaukee Brewers are going to the World Series. Not the Dodgers. Not the Braves. Not the Phillies or Mets. Not the Cubs.

Those organizations all spend a lot of money on baseball players. But they're not playing baseball next week.

The Brewers are, though.

"They've got a bunch of Hall of Famers," Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy said in the locker room after last night's win. "But we've got a bunch of gamers."

I don't know how long he had been thinking about that one, but Murphy hit the nail squarely on the head.

Freeman, Ohtani, Betts -- all headed to the Hall of Fame. Skubal might get there someday as well.

This Brewers team has Yelich, who might get in someday or, at the very least, will make the Hall of Very Good.

And that's it, in terms of guys who could potentially make it to Cooperstown.

And yet, Milwaukee plays on and the Dodgers clean out their lockers.

If it can happen to the Brewers, it can happen to the Orioles, too.

Believe.

Now that I've told you the Orioles could be the next Brewers, the question you're probably asking is: "How?"

And that's a fair question.

The blueprint of the Brewers is very easy to decipher.

They pretty much just employ athletes. Really good athletes at that.

The Brewers beat you by playing "baseball".

They hit 'em where they ain't.

They're not afraid to bunt.

When a ball is hit to them, they generally field it cleanly.

Their pitchers wind up and throw heat. A lot of it.

They can hit homers here and there, but they'd rather kill you with a thousand paper cuts than open up a big gash with one huge slash from a switchblade.

Oh, and the Brewers don't quit.

Like, they just don't give up, no matter the score.

The Orioles have to be watching the way they do it in Milwaukee and try to replicate that in Baltimore, if possible.

Maybe the personnel they have in the Orioles organization isn't capable of doing what the Brewers do.

If that's the case, the O's can either get new personnel or just keep on losing.

faith in sports

The Dodgers might have lost the NLCS last night, but they have a team full of Christian believers who will not be dismayed because of one loss in a baseball season.

These interviews, as part of their Faith and Family Day this season, will take you into the mindset of Dodgers players and how Jesus has helped transform their lives both on and off the field.

I hope you'll watch this video below and gain a new appreciation for guys like Mookie Betts, who is certainly not afraid to give Jesus all the credit.

Thanks, as always, to our friends at Freestate Electric for their support of #DMD and our Friday "Faith in Sports" segment here.

Thursday October 15, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4435

six ravens points worth pondering

Trust me, I'm not trying to trump Randy Morgan's "Five Takeaways" piece that he does following every Ravens game.

It just happened that when I sat down to put today's #DMD together, I had six points to make regarding what we've seen from the football team through five games.

You may agree with all six, three of the six or none of the six. Some people like Cabernet Sauvignon (red) and some folks prefer Sauvignon Blanc (white). Me? I like them both. But that's neither here nor there.

So here are six points worth pondering.

1. Their record says 4-1, but...

I know what the saying is: You are what your record says you are.

But the Ravens are a 4-1 team that really isn't or "shouldn't" be 4-1. I'm not saying they stink. Don't think for one minute I'm saying the Ravens aren't any good.

What I am saying, though, is if Dallas doesn't completely throw up on themselves in the final minute of regulation and if that goofy offensive lineman from the Falcons catches a ball that your 84 year old Uncle Ned could have caught, the Ravens are a 2-3 team instead of a 4-1 team.

Here's how I'd officially classify the Ravens thus far: They're a "fortunate" 4-1 team.

But you can't take away those wins. And if they wind up cobbling together a 12-5 campaign or 13-4 season, they'll be hosting at least one playoff game, if not two, because they stole a couple of games back in September and October.

Every win counts, no matter how they come about.

2. The Ravens no longer have a kicking problem...

They have a kicker. His name is Tyler Loop. Is he going to miss a kick here and there? Sure. Every kicker does, at some point.

But when the Ravens get the ball to the other team's 45 yard line, Loop is now on the border of being "in range". Depending on wind, weather and field conditions, anything inside of 60 yards is now a "should make this one" kind of kick for the 2nd year kicker.

Is he going to ultimately be as good as Justin Tucker? Probably not. Not many guys are going to be better than Justin Tucker was in his heyday.

But the Ravens no longer have a concern in the kicking position. This kid will hit big kicks for them, like he has already done in 5 games this season.

3. The secondary better improve a lot...

Teams are feasting on the Baltimore secondary. The defense, as a whole, is handling things decently enough. But opposing offenses are having a field day throwing the ball against the corners and safeties.

It needs to be addressed and fix. Like, pronto.

Last week's fiasco against the Falcons was the real eye opener. Drake London's a nice receiver, but Justin Jefferson he ain't.

And Michael Penix, Jr. is not the next-coming of Peyton Manning, either.

But time and time again, those two connected on big, important throws, particularly on third down.

The same thing happened in the Dallas game. Oh, and the Saints just completed another pass to Chris Olave.

I realize a small part of a secondary's responsibility involves helping stop the run or blitzing on occasion. It's not 100% all about pass coverage. But about 90% of it involves stopping the other team from catching the ball.

It's worth noting that Kyle Hamilton did seal last Sunday night's game with an interception in overtime. But it's also worth noting that Elmer Fudd was in at quarterback for the Falcons. You could have intercepted that pass Tua threw to end the game.

It's also important to note "if" Joe Burrow is healthy and "if" Ja'Marr Chase is healthy -- because there's a tendency for one of them to be ailing (usually the QB) -- there's a good chance those two will collaborate on a 250-yard receiving day for Chase if the Ravens don't get their act together in the secondary...quickly.

This week will be a wash, of course. The Browns are terrible. The Ravens might very well pitch a touchdown-free shutout of something like 27-9 on Sunday in Cleveland. But don't think their secondary problems are solved if that happens.

When the varsity teams come around, the Ravens need to step it up in the secondary.

4. Madubuike helps a lot, especially if this is what they get from Trey...

I'm not saying it's panic time with regard to Trey Hendrickson. But we're five games into the season and he's missed two of them. In his last 10 NFL seasons, Hendrickson has played all of the games twice. That's it.

So, perhaps this is what the Ravens are going to get from him. 12 or 13 games, maybe. And hopefully, he's Trey Hendrickson in those 12 or 13 games.

But.......there's a silver lining.

Nnamdi Madubuike is back. And apparently healthy. Not "play a game or two and take off a game or two" to preserve himself. But, like, healthy and capable of playing all the time.

And with him back and anchoring the defensive line, stuff changes for the Ravens. Teams are going to have to figure out a way to contend with him. Add in Mike Green evidently starting to turn into an edge threat and you have the makings of a pretty nice dynamic duo. A solid, gap filling defensive lineman and a linebacker type who likes chasing the quarterback.

Madubuike's return can't be understated. If he's healthy, he's a wrecking ball.

And imagine if Hendrickson comes back and is actually able to finish out the season without getting hurt again.

The best tonic for a suspect secondary is a defensive front that can put pressure on the quarterback. The Ravens have the weapons to do that. They just need all of them to be available on game day.

5. You're gonna need Andrews to step up and contribute

Mark Andrews is the tight end of record for the Ravens. He just is.

People can opine for the newbies, Hibner and Cuevas, to get more snaps, but the reality is neither of those have the pedigree or the polish of Andrews.

It's also fair to point out Hibner and Cuevas don't get the ball thrown to them 125 times a season. If they did, they'd also have drops, fumbles and so on.

But this isn't about Hibner and Cuevas. They are what they are. And they might very well come in handy from time to time.

This is about Andrews. He needs to step up his game. But more importantly, the Ravens need him to step up his game. He's all they really have in that position and, let's be honest, he's a favorite target of Lamar Jackson's.

I know this will make you nervous, but it's true: The Ravens probably can't win meaningful games in January if Andrews isn't a go-to, top-tight-end kind of guy.

Yes, Zay Flowers is explosive. No two ways about it. And Rashod Bateman comes up big when you least expect it, it seems. And hopefully Ja'Kobi Lane comes back in a few weeks and is able to make an impact.

That said, with all due respect to Tez Walker and others, those are the three wide receivers at Lamar's disposal. That's why Andrews is critical.

I'm not going to go as far as saying, "They can't win big games without Andrews. But I will say, as I did above, they "probably" can't win big games in January if Andrews isn't making a noteworthy contribution. When he's "on", he's terrific. The problem is, when he's off, he's sorta-kinda capable of being the reason they lose.

The Ravens need Mark Andrews. Without him, they'll suffer.

6. Nothing has really changed in the AFC...

There are still basically four teams fighting for one spot in the Super Bowl. Baltimore, Buffalo, Kansas City and, if you're willing to buy stock in the Patriots, I'll throw New England in there just to have a fourth team.

I don't put much value in Jacksonville from a long-term standpoint. When Trevor Lawrence wins a huge game in January, it will be the first time he's done that.

I think the Jags are good. But not a threat to the other four. And, frankly, I'm not all that sure New England is really a world-beater. We'll see as the season goes on. If they're 8-4 after 12 weeks, I'll circle back and say I was wrong about them.

Anyway, the Ravens are right there. Buffalo is good, sure. But they're very much like the Ravens. They go as far as their quarterback takes them. Their defense is decent, but it's not going to remind anyone of the '85 Bears. The Bills will give up points. They're not beating anyone 17-9.

Kansas City is good. Mahomes is back and he's obviously the real deal. They can run the ball with Kenneth Walker. Kelce is still a formidable contributor. They have wide receivers with speed. Defensively, they're good, but not great.

Ironically, the three top AFC dogs are kind of the same. Good offensively, not really more than "OK" defensively, and they have winning DNA in their bones.

New England might be similar in nature, but with a better defense and perhaps a bit of a lesser offense.

No one else in the AFC is scary. As I've said here numerous times, the Ravens will walk backwards to the AFC North title. The Bengals will likely finish 10-7 or 9-8. The Steelers will either be 8-9 or 9-8. And the Browns will finish 6-11 or, if pigs fly, maybe 7-10.

The AFC South is a shambles except for Jacksonville.

The only decent team in the West is Kansas City.

My point? The Ravens know the Bills and Chiefs all too well. It's going to come down to who gets home ice out of those three and which of the two have to play one another for the right to get to the third team. Will it be the Ravens vs. Buffalo again with the winner facing the Chiefs? Or could it be the Chiefs vs. the Bills with the winner getting Baltimore? Or could it be the Ravens and Chiefs locking horns for the right to go to Buffalo?

We'll find out in January.

As we know around here, those are really the only games that matter as far as the Ravens are concerned.

So at that five-game mark of the season, that's what I see from the Ravens. There's your six key "points of light", if you will.

They're fortunate to be 4-1.

Tyler Loop is fine. More than fine. The Ravens don't have a kicking problem.

The secondary is a concern. They need to step up.

Madubuike's return is huge, particularly if Hendrickson is going to be limited.

They need Mark Andrews. Now is not the time to turn their back on him.

And the Ravens are right there in an AFC that hasn't really changed much over the last 5-7 years.

Now, none of this takes into account injuries, obviously. Lamar is apparently going to be back this Sunday in Cleveland. But we also know there's a potential that he could be bothered by this ankle injury for weeks.

And if something were to happen to one of Henry, Hamilton or Zay, the promised land isn't quite as easy to see.

But all things being equal and the Ravens not falling victim to a rash of injuries to their top 5 or 6 guys, they should be playing for a spot in the AFC Championship Game in January.

How they'll get there and who they will beat remains to be seen, but this is almost certainly a team that will be playing deep into January unless something really wacky and weird happens.

Wednesday October 14, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4434

you can't go winless in 84 games unless...

Anytime I'm playing golf with a friend and he makes birdie at the first hole, I always rattle off the same cliche.

"No one's ever birdied all 18 holes in a round before. Never been done. But you have a chance to do it today."

"You can't birdie all 18 unless you birdie number one."

While it's obviously far-fetched to believe an 18-birdie round is feasible, the cliche, tired as it might be, is also very true.

You have to birdie the first one.

Editor's note: Those who know me and have contacted me via e-mail know my contact info is: 18inarow@gmail.com. The "18" doesn't stand for 18 consecutive days of chinese food or 18 consecutive days of seeing RUSH in concert. It references, of course, 18 birdies in a row, which is golf's holy grail. Anyway, thought you might want to know.

On we go. As Snoop once said, "Back to the lecture at hand."

Last night in Philadelphia, the Flyers looked to finally break into the win column after a disastrous 0-5-2 start. For those unaware of hockey results work, that's ZERO wins for the Flyers, 5 losses in regulation and 2 losses in either overtime or a shootout.

0-5-2 means they've played 7 games and haven't won one.

You can now make that 0-8.

Technically, it's 0-5-3 after the Flyers fell on Tuesday evening at home to Seattle, 3-2.

They've played EIGHT games thus far and don't have a win. Not one.

I opined here a few weeks back I'd trade virtually anything, including the Ravens having one of those awful 4-13 seasons, for the Flyers to go winless in 84 games.

I'll double down on that one right now since we're 8 games in and it's still a thing. If you reached out to me and said, "Hey, I know the chief sports god, he and I were roommates in college, and he says he'll make the Flyers go 0-76-8 if you'll let him make the Ravens go 4-13 in back-to-back seasons", I'd reply with, "Do you have a pen so I can sign the agreement?"

You can't lose all 84 unless you lose the first 8.

Now, here's where I'm realistic. I know they're going to win up there at some point. The Flyers are actually a pretty talented team, or at least everyone thought they were heading into the season. But it would be really cool to see this whole thing drag on for another week and get them to something like 0-10-2, just to heap more misery on their wretched fan base.

And if they somehow get to 12 games, the all-time NHL record for "worst start to a season" is right around the corner.

The New York Rangers, in 1943-44, started that campaign at 0-14-1.

If the Flyers could just drop a few more. Maybe get it all the way to something like 0-8-2. At least then it would start to be a media discussion item. The heat would start building.

You can't lose the first 16 unless you lose the first 8.

They're halfway to hockey glory up there in Philadelphia.

Let the good times roll, as the great Ric Ocasek once said.

Editor's note #2 -- Did you know Ocasek spent two school years (well, really one and a half) as a student at Immaculate Heart of Mary in Towson? He did indeed. He was there in 2nd and part of 3rd grade before being dismissed for "misconduct toward a member of the administration". He apparently hit a nun with a ruler. It's all true. Ocasek (his name at that time was spelled Octasek) and his sister went to school there.

Thank you for your attention to these matters.

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

dual eights efficiency index: 49ers take the top spot

Five weeks into the NFL season, the San Francisco 49ers have emerged as the best team in football. At least according to both of our models.

San Francisco’s 32-29 victory in Seattle pushed the undefeated 49ers ahead of Jacksonville in the Dual Eights Efficiency Index, while their offensive dominance has opened a more substantial lead in our new forward-looking Power Index.

The Jaguars remain close behind in Efficiency, Buffalo is surging, and the Ravens have moved back into the top five despite playing without Lamar Jackson.

Elsewhere, the Patriots and Buccaneers have made significant improvements. Minnesota continues to defy conventional logic, reaching 5-0 behind the league’s best defense and special teams despite having its least efficient offense.

And this week, we’re introducing something new.

The Dual Eights Power Index (DEPI) joins our existing Efficiency rankings, giving us a second way to evaluate the league. Rather than simply measuring how teams have performed, we can begin estimating how strong they should be in future games, comparing matchups and identifying differences between our projections and the betting market.

The two models won’t always agree. That’s part of the point.

The Dual Eights Efficiency Index measures how well a team has actually played this season.

The new Dual Eights Power Index (DEPI) asks a different question: how strong should that team be going forward?

Both indexes are available at: https://dualeights.com/nfl/rankings/

1. San Francisco 49ers — 68.7

5-0 | Week 4: 2 | Offense: 1 | Defense: 12 | Special teams: 20 | DEPI: 1 (+9.9)

The 49ers have finally overtaken Jacksonville, and their case for being the league’s best team is increasingly difficult to dispute.

Their 32-29 win at Seattle was particularly revealing because they faced one of the NFL’s best defensive units and still found enough offense to win.

San Francisco’s first-ranked adjusted offense continues to drive its success. The defense is a more ordinary 12th and special teams rank 20th, so this is not a team dominating every phase of football.

But when an offense is consistently better than everyone else’s, the other units don’t necessarily need to be exceptional.

The Power Index is even more impressed, placing the 49ers first at +9.86, more than 2.5 points clear of second-place Buffalo.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars — 68.1

4-1 | Week 4: 1 | Offense: 4 | Defense: 4 | Special teams: 19 | DEPI: 3 (+6.2)

Jacksonville fell out of first place despite beating Philadelphia 19-17 in London, but there isn’t much reason for concern in the overall numbers.

The Jaguars remain the most balanced team in the top two, with both their adjusted offense and defense ranking fourth.

Their 68.1 score is barely different from last week, and the gap to San Francisco is just 0.54 points using the unrounded ratings.

The difference is that San Francisco’s offense has separated itself, while Jacksonville has earned its position through quality on both sides of the ball.

DEPI ranks the Jaguars third at +6.15, suggesting their strong early-season performance is supported by a credible forward-looking profile.

3. Seattle Seahawks — 63.4

3-2 | Week 4: 3 | Offense: 26 | Defense: 2 | Special teams: 2 | DEPI: 10 (+2.7)

Seattle remains third despite losing to San Francisco, which is a useful reminder that the Efficiency Index is not simply a weekly reward for winning.

The Seahawks have the second-ranked adjusted defense and second-ranked special teams. Those two units are doing an enormous amount of work to compensate for an offense that ranks 26th.

That imbalance is difficult to ignore.

Seattle has shown it can make life difficult for good opponents, but the offense continues to limit how consistently it can convert those performances into victories.

The Power Index is considerably less enthusiastic, ranking the Seahawks 10th at +2.69.

One model sees a team performing at a top-three level. The other questions whether that performance is sustainable without more offensive production.

4. Kansas City Chiefs — 62.6

4-0 | Week 4: 4 | Offense: 5 | Defense: 13 | Special teams: 10 | DEPI: 9 (+2.7)

Kansas City remains undefeated following its bye, with a balanced profile that keeps the Chiefs comfortably inside the top five.

Their offense ranks fifth, defense 13th and special teams 10th.

Interestingly, their Efficiency score dropped from 64.1 to 62.6 despite not playing.

That is not a penalty for taking a week off. The model evaluates opponent strength and team performance together, so new results elsewhere can change the context surrounding games already played.

The Power Index is notably less impressed, placing Kansas City ninth at +2.71. The Chiefs are unquestionably one of the league’s strongest performers so far, but our forward-looking model sees a team closer to the second tier than the very top.

5. Baltimore Ravens — 62.5

4-1 | Week 4: 6 | Offense: 6 | Defense: 10 | Special teams: 14 | DEPI: 4 (+5.7)

The Ravens climbed into the top five after their 30-23 overtime victory in Atlanta, a particularly encouraging result considering Lamar Jackson wasn’t available.

Baltimore’s adjusted offense ranks sixth, defense 10th and special teams 14th.

That represents a relatively balanced team, even if the week-to-week experience of watching the Ravens hasn’t always felt particularly balanced.

The important distinction is that the Efficiency Index includes Tyler Huntley’s actual performance. It doesn’t pretend Lamar played against Atlanta or substitute hypothetical quarterback production.

The Power Index places the Ravens even higher, fourth at +5.72. However, that projection assumes Jackson is the starting quarterback.

That is an important qualification, and one we’ll return to when examining the Week 6 spread against Cleveland.

6. Minnesota Vikings — 61.6

5-0 | Week 4: 7 | Offense: 32 | Defense: 1 | Special teams: 1 | DEPI: 18 (-0.3)

Minnesota might be the most interesting team in football.

The Vikings are undefeated. They have the league’s best adjusted defense and best adjusted special teams.

They also have the worst adjusted offense.

That is a remarkable combination for a 5-0 team.

Their 23-13 win over New Orleans continued the formula that has worked throughout September and into October. Prevent scoring, create favorable field position, make enough plays on offense and avoid asking that offense to carry the team.

There is nothing illegitimate about winning that way. Defense and special teams count, and Minnesota has been exceptional in both.

The question is how long it can continue.

DEPI ranks the Vikings just 18th, with an overall rating of -0.31. Their projected offensive contribution is a dreadful -5.28 points.

Eventually, a team with championship ambitions has to generate offense against quality opponents. Minnesota has been excellent at covering up that weakness, but it hasn’t made the weakness disappear.

7. Cincinnati Bengals — 59.1

3-2 | Week 4: 11 | Offense: 8 | Defense: 14 | Special teams: 13 | DEPI: 6 (+4.3)

Cincinnati returns to the top 10 following its 31-24 victory at Miami.

The Bengals gained four places as their adjusted offense climbed into eighth, supported by a defense and special-teams unit that both rank near the middle of the league.

Unlike several other teams in the top 10, there isn’t a significant disagreement between the descriptive and predictive measures.

DEPI ranks Cincinnati sixth at +4.31.

The Bengals have not been dominant, but they have a strong enough offensive foundation to remain dangerous, particularly if their defensive performance stabilizes.

8. Carolina Panthers — 56.8

2-2 | Week 4: 8 | Offense: 12 | Defense: 15 | Special teams: 11 | DEPI: 16 (0.0)

Carolina remains eighth after its bye despite a modest decline in its Index score.

The Panthers are reasonably balanced, with an adjusted offense ranked 12th, defense 15th and special teams 11th.

However, they’ve only played four games, and the Power Index is far less impressed, placing them 16th at almost exactly league average.

The Efficiency Index credits a team that has played relatively well through its opening four games. DEPI isn’t ready to assume that performance represents Carolina’s established level. The Panthers will have another opportunity to challenge that skepticism against Philadelphia in Week 6.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — 56.7

1-4 | Week 4: 17 | Offense: 21 | Defense: 7 | Special teams: 6 | DEPI: 12 (+1.3) Tampa Bay is the biggest riser in this week’s Efficiency rankings, jumping eight places after beating Dallas 24-16.

Yes, these are the same Buccaneers who are 1-4.

Their seventh-ranked adjusted defense and sixth-ranked special teams are doing much better work than the standings would suggest.

The offense remains 21st, so this is hardly evidence that Tampa Bay has suddenly become a complete team.

But the underlying performance has improved, and the Power Index agrees to a degree. Tampa Bay has climbed five positions there as well, moving from slightly below average to +1.31. The Buccaneers may not be a particularly good team yet. They are certainly playing better than their record suggests.

10. Buffalo Bills — 56.6

4-1 | Week 4: 15 | Offense: 2 | Defense: 29 | Special teams: 4 | DEPI: 2 (+7.2)

Buffalo rounds out the top 10 after Monday night’s 37-34 victory at the Rams.

The Bills climbed five places, powered by the league’s second-ranked adjusted offense and fourth-ranked special teams.

The defense, however, ranks 29th.

That is a substantial weakness for a team expected to contend for the Super Bowl.

The Power Index places Buffalo second at +7.22, largely because the forward-looking offensive projection is so strong.

Buffalo is a good illustration of the difference between these models. The Efficiency Index sees an excellent offense dragging along a poor defense. DEPI expects that offense to remain dangerous enough for the Bills to be one of the league’s strongest teams.

Whether the defense improves may ultimately determine how far they go.

Biggest Risers: Tampa Bay and New England Lead the Way

The two biggest stories this week are Tampa Bay and New England.

The Buccaneers made the largest ranking jump, climbing from 17th to ninth after their victory in Dallas. Their Index improved by 5.94 points, with the defense and special teams supplying much of the foundation.

But New England made the largest improvement in Efficiency points, gaining 6.86 while climbing seven positions, from 18th to 11th.

The Patriots’ 45-17 demolition of Las Vegas is reflected in both models. New England also climbed from 13th to eighth in DEPI, gaining 2.26 projected scoring-margin points.

That is the strongest combined improvement in the league this week.

Green Bay jumped six positions, from 29th to 23rd, following its 31-7 victory over Chicago. That was a particularly meaningful result for a Packers team that had struggled to establish a convincing statistical profile through the opening month.

Biggest Fallers: Chicago, Las Vegas and the Rams

Four teams fell seven places this week: Chicago, the Rams, Giants and Raiders.

Chicago’s 31-7 defeat at Green Bay produced a 7.56-point Efficiency decline, dropping the Bears from fifth to 12th. That is a significant correction, although their quarterback situation remains important context when trying to project what happens next.

The Raiders suffered the biggest Index-point decline of the week, falling 8.60 points after their 45-17 loss to New England. Las Vegas dropped from 20th to 27th.

The Power Index was similarly unimpressed, reducing the Raiders’ rating by 2.01 points, with a deteriorating defensive projection responsible for most of the decline.

The Rams present a more complicated case.

They fell from 10th to 17th in Efficiency despite a competitive 37-34 loss to Buffalo. Their current-season performance no longer resembles that of a top-tier team.

But DEPI still ranks Los Angeles fifth at +4.97.

It is possible the Rams remain considerably better than their record and current performance suggest.

It is also possible that the Power Index is taking too long to acknowledge a meaningful decline.

That is exactly the kind of disagreement worth tracking as the season continues.

There are some obvious similarities. San Francisco is first in both, Jacksonville remains in the top three, and the Ravens sit comfortably among the league’s strongest teams.

But the disagreements are more interesting.

Minnesota ranks sixth in Efficiency but 18th in DEPI. Seattle is third in Efficiency but only 10th in DEPI. Conversely, the Rams are 17th in Efficiency but fifth in DEPI.

Buffalo also climbs from 10th in Efficiency to second in DEPI.

The common thread is how much weight we should place on the current season versus what we know about the personnel and underlying strength of these teams.

The real value comes from watching whether the gaps begin to close.

Where the Power Index Disagrees Most With Week 6 Betting Spreads

One of the most useful applications of DEPI is comparing our expected scoring margins against the actual betting market.

The calculation is straightforward: subtract the two Power Index ratings and apply a 1.57-point home-field adjustment. Neutral-site games receive no home-field allowance.

That produces our projected margin. We can then compare it against the sportsbook spread to identify where the largest differences exist.

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay: A disagreement worth investigating

This is the biggest disagreement on the board, and it isn’t particularly close.

The market favors Pittsburgh by 2.5 points on the road. DEPI favors Tampa Bay by approximately four points at home.

That’s a 6.5-point difference, with the two sides not even agreeing about which team should be favored.

Some of that difference is easy to understand. Tampa Bay has improved substantially in our ratings, especially defensively, while Pittsburgh sits 19th in the Power Index at -1.11.

But there is a crucial complication.

DEPI’s default quarterback assumption for Tampa Bay is Baker Mayfield, who has been recovering from a dislocated thumb. Rookie Jalon Daniels started the previous two games, and Mayfield’s Week 6 availability has not yet been confirmed.

If Daniels starts again the model still favors Tampa, but only by 1.6 points.

Washington at San Francisco: Is the market underestimating the 49ers?

DEPI makes San Francisco a 13.3-point favorite over Washington. The market line is 49ers - 7.5.

That’s a difference of nearly six points.

The 49ers have the best adjusted offense in the Efficiency Index and the strongest overall Power rating by a comfortable margin. Washington, meanwhile, is 22nd in DEPI at -1.83.

The calculation is straightforward, but the question is whether San Francisco’s offensive dominance justifies laying nearly two touchdowns rather than the market’s more modest number.

Large favorites introduce their own complications. Teams with substantial leads can become conservative, reduce possessions and allow late scores that narrow the final margin without meaningfully threatening the result.

Still, this is one of the clearest cases where DEPI sees a much larger talent and performance gap than the betting market.

Houston at Jacksonville: The model prefers the Jaguars

Jacksonville is favored by 2.5 points in London, but DEPI projects the Jaguars to win by approximately 7.6.

That creates a 5.1-point difference.

Importantly, this is a neutral-site calculation. The game is being played at Wembley Stadium, so the model does not award Jacksonville the normal 1.57-point home-field advantage.

The Jaguars’ fourth-ranked adjusted offense and defense support a stronger rating than Houston’s, despite the Texans showing signs of improvement with their 26-3 victory over Tennessee.

There are reasons to be cautious.

Jacksonville will be without starting left tackle Anton Harrison following his knee injury against Philadelphia. Walker Little is expected to replace him. The Jaguars also have the familiarity of a second consecutive London game, something the neutral-site adjustment does not explicitly reward.

The gap is substantial, but the model cannot account for every important change in the matchup.

Tuesday October 13, 2026

#DMD

Issue #4433

free the birds fix the team

I'm going to pause in the midst of a nice start for our 4-1 football team and offer commentary one final time this season about the local baseball squad.

I won't stoop to the level of some others in town and call the GM names and ridicule him for his lack of success here in Charm City.

I'll leave the owner alone. At least for now. I do think, based on people I know in the community who are close with him, that he's overly committed to putting a winning product on the field for the baseball fans of Baltimore.

So this is going to be more of a "pleading" session and less about yelling and screaming and demanding results.

And why do I bring this up today?

Because I watched baseball on Monday -- playoff baseball at that -- and I'm insanely jealous of what those people got to enjoy in Milwaukee and Tampa Bay.

Now, they wound up not really "enjoying" what they saw in Tampa Bay last night, as the Rays dropped their ALCS opener to Cleveland, 7-3, but that's not really the point. They were having a blast until the final out was recorded. That's more my point.

In Milwaukee, they're flying high after Monday's win over the Dodgers, with the Brewers now up 2-0 on the 2-time defending champs in the NLCS.

I'll leave football reporting and coverage to Randy Morgan today.

I'm here to beg for winning baseball to return to Baltimore. Like, soon.

Fix the team.

We haven't had a World Series here since 1983, as everyone reading this probably knows. There hasn't been a League Championship Series in Baltimore since 2014 and before, that, 1997.

One of the reasons why it was always weird to see, read and hear people cry and whine about John Harbaugh and those Ravens teams is because all they mostly did was win. Playoffs were pretty much a formality with those teams. We got to experience "January football" here a lot with Harbaugh. And with Brian Billick, too, for that matter.

Sure, a number of our very talented football teams have come up short in the post-season (and we know that's always the coach's fault and never the fault of the players) and the Ravens have only been to (and won) two Super Bowls since 1996. But we've experienced a lot of great moments as fans of the Ravens since the team arrived here 30 years ago.

We haven't experienced jack squat with the Orioles over the last 25 years.

Take away that glorious 2014 campaign and it's a bunch of nothin'.

And that's why I'm so envious of what I see every October when these teams carry on and move through the playoffs and eventually get to play in the ALCS and NLCS. And then, the cherry on top, two of them get to play in the World Series.

I hate it.

But I love the "hope springs eternal" angle of it all, too. We'll be back here in March, eyes wide open, hoping this is the season it all gets put to rest and the Birds roll through the regular season (if there is one) and move swifty through the playoffs (if there are any) into the World Series (if they play it).

For now, I have to watch the folks in Milwaukee, Los Angeles, Cleveland and Tampa Bay get to enjoy October baseball. And it pains me to see those fans having so much fun and the stadiums filled and every pitch and at bat mattering.

I wonder, as I watch it, if David Rubenstein is watching it? I seriously wonder about that. Is he a baseball fan like the rest of us? Does he watch these games and say, like I'm saying today, "Geez, this is tough to watch. These fans are enjoying this so much. The players are having the time of their lives. What do I need to do to make sure Baltimore experiences this soon?"

I wonder if Mike Elias watches it?

And if they do watch it, Rubenstein and Elias, do they hurt a little bit watching it and knowing they haven't been able to produce it in Baltimore?

I think they both have personal and professional pride, so I assume it does bother them. I mean, who wants to run a losing, non-profitable organization, right?

So, let's get it fixed.

Let's take what we saw in Milwaukee and Tampa Bay on Monday and use it for fuel to fix our broken team and get that ALCS back to Baltimore.

The city deserves it.

The fans definitely deserve it.

It's been way too long and we're beyond antsy about it.

Fix the team.

We're pleading with you.

Fix it.

	RANDY MORGAN and his thoughts on the Ravens
Randy Morgan follows both Birds in Baltimore better than most -- the Orioles and the Ravens. In football season, turn here to #DMD for his thoughts on the purple birds or visit Randy's Baltimore sports-centric website, www.dualeights.com.

first and five: ravens found a way

Five immediate takeaways from the Ravens' improbable 30-23 overtime victory over the Atlanta Falcons.

Check out more Ravens coverage at: https://dualeights.com/ravens/

I'm not entirely sure how the Ravens won that game.

Missing Lamar Jackson, Trey Hendrickson, with a re-shuffled offensive line, the Ravens went into Atlanta as underdogs against a Falcons team that had looked awfully impressive over the past two weeks. For most of Sunday night, it looked like the injuries were simply too much to overcome.

Tyler Huntley couldn't get the passing game moving. Mark Andrews apparently forgot how to use his hands. The defense kept giving away third-and-long conversions. And despite repeatedly moving the ball into scoring position, the Ravens entered halftime with only nine points.

Thank goodness for Tyler Loop, who made all three of his field-goal attempts, including two from 51 yards, and continues to put last season's kicking concerns further into the rearview mirror. He's now a perfect 5-for-5 from beyond 50 yards this season.

Even then, Baltimore trailed 23-15 with 2:31 remaining and needed a touchdown, two-point conversion and another score in overtime to escape with a victory.

And somehow, they got all of it.

Huntley suddenly turned into a completely different quarterback. Declan Doyle kept finding creative ways to manufacture offense. The defense finally delivered the big plays it needed, knocking Michael Penix Jr. out of the game allowing for Kyle Hamilton to seal the deal in his hometown by picking off Tua.

The Ravens finished with 409 total yards, including 208 rushing, against a defense that had been allowing fewer than 50 rushing yards per game. They outgained Atlanta, produced more first downs and held the Falcons to just 16 offensive points.

If Andrews catches a touchdown, holds onto the football and secures a two-point conversion, this game might have ended a lot earlier and with considerably less drama.

Instead, the Ravens found a way to win a game they had every excuse to lose, improving to 4-1 and taking sole possession of first place in the AFC North.

Before going back through the tape, these are my five biggest takeaways.

1. Tyler Huntley made me delete an entire paragraph

For most of Sunday night, Tyler Huntley looked like a quarterback who had no business starting an NFL game.

He was hesitant, rarely looked downfield and seemed content to throw the shortest available pass regardless of the situation. Atlanta increasingly crowded the underneath routes, confident that Huntley wasn't going to make them pay over the top.

By the third quarter, I had written almost an entire paragraph contemplating whether the Ravens should give Joey Fagnano a chance if Lamar Jackson couldn't return next week.

Then the final two drives happened and I had to delete everything and rewrite this.

With the game essentially slipping away, Huntley suddenly became a completely different quarterback.

After completing just 11 of 18 passes for 97 yards in the first half, Huntley went 13-of-14 for 104 yards and two touchdowns in the second half and overtime. He finished the game with 11 consecutive completions.

The most remarkable transformation came on the final possession of regulation. Trailing by eight with just over two minutes remaining, the Ravens needed Huntley to push the football downfield and move the offense quickly.

He responded by completing all six of his passes on a 71-yard touchdown drive.

Rashod Bateman made important catches. Zay Flowers helped move the chains. And with 40 seconds remaining, Huntley delivered his best ball of the night, a beautifully placed seven-yard back-shoulder touchdown pass to Devontez Walker.

Then came overtime.

Rather than reverting to the tentative version we watched for most of regulation, Huntley remained composed. He converted critical third downs and kept the offense moving throughout a 14-play, 68-yard drive that consumed more than seven minutes.

He eventually finished it himself with a one-yard touchdown run.

Huntley ended the night 24-of-32 for 201 yards, two passing touchdowns, another rushing touchdown and a 111.6 passer rating.

That doesn’t suddenly make the former pro-bowler a franchise quarterback. His limitations were obvious for much of the game, but there is a reason Huntley has remained a trusted backup in Baltimore.

He understands the offense, takes care of the football and is capable of executing when the structure around him provides answers. When he began trusting those answers instead of playing so cautiously, the offense opened up.

For three quarters, I was questioning whether the Ravens could afford to start him again. By the end of overtime, he had delivered one of the most impressive performances of his Ravens career.

That's quite a turnaround.

2. Declan Doyle is making himself difficult to ignore

Five games into his career as an NFL play caller, Declan Doyle is becoming one of the most encouraging developments of this Ravens season.

There have been mistakes. The short-yardage struggles have been particularly frustrating, and there were stretches Sunday when the offense became overly conservative with Huntley under center. But what continues to impress me is Doyle's creativity and willingness to adapt his offense to the players available.

Against Atlanta, that challenge was considerable. Without Lamar, the Ravens lost the quarterback running threat that normally forces defenses to account for an additional ball carrier on every snap. They also faced the NFL's best rushing defense, which entered the game allowing just 48.3 yards per contest.

Nonetheless, the Ravens ran for 208. Derrick Henry finished with 102 yards on 24 carries, while Justice Hill contributed 73 yards on only four attempts.

Hill's biggest run might have been my favorite offensive design of the night. Facing third-and-1 in the third quarter, Doyle lined Hill up as a fullback directly in front of Henry in an I-formation. I think this was the first time all season they have lined up in the backfield together, though I can’t confirm.

Rather than handing the ball to Henry, the Ravens gave it to Hill, who exploded through the line for 47 yards.

It was a clever way to attack Atlanta's expectations.

With Henry behind him and only one yard needed, Hill's alignment suggested he was there to block for the obvious ball carrier. Doyle instead made Hill the runner, using the defense's attention to Henry to create an opportunity for someone else.

We also saw another example of Doyle's willingness to get Henry into space as a receiver.

Trailing 17-9 in the third quarter, Huntley found Henry on a screen pass. The design allowed the big running back to get moving before encountering defenders, and Henry finished the 18-yard touchdown with the kind of stiff-arm that has become his trademark.

Rather than requiring Henry to create everything by repeatedly running through crowded boxes, Doyle is finding ways to get him the football with room to accelerate. Screens, misdirection and changing formations all force defenders to account for Henry in more than one way.

Then on the game-tying conversion, Doyle put Henry in the Wildcat. Taking the direct snap, Henry faked a handoff to Flowers and raced around the edge for the conversion. It was exactly the sort of creative short-yardage answer I wanted to see after the repeated short yardage difficulties.

There is still plenty to learn about Doyle's ability to manage an offense over an entire season, but the early evidence is increasingly positive.

The unfortunate part is the rest of the league will be taking notice. If this continues, the Ravens might not get to enjoy their young offensive coordinator for very long. We may look back at this win as the moment we knew Doyle’s time in Baltimore would be short and sweet.

3. The defense stepped up, but there are still some concerns

The defense deserves substantial credit for this victory.

Atlanta entered Sunday having scored 80 points over its previous two games. The Ravens were missing Trey Hendrickson, their biggest offseason addition to the pass rush, and were facing an offense with dangerous weapons at running back, wide receiver and tight end.

Yet Atlanta managed only one offensive touchdown.

The Falcons scored 23 points, but seven came directly from Andrews' fumble being returned for a touchdown. Their offense managed just 16 points, settling for three field goals despite several opportunities to reach the end zone.

There were also some outstanding individual performances.

Malaki Starks probably played his best game of the season (and maybe his career), finishing with a team-high 10 tackles (two for a loss) while playing 62 of 64 defensive snaps. More importantly, his impact went well beyond accumulating tackles downfield.

Starks made several significant plays around the line of scrimmage, including a terrific open- field tackle against Bijan Robinson near the goal line, a third-and-short run stop and another tackle for loss on a short completion.

Those plays demonstrated the instincts and versatility that made Starks such an appealing first- round selection.

We've seen him struggle with positioning and tackling angles at times, particularly when asked to react quickly in space. On Sunday, he generally looked decisive and under control, taking good angles and finishing plays before they developed into something more dangerous. Mike Green was similarly impressive.

With Hendrickson unavailable, Green was asked to shoulder more of the pass-rushing responsibility. He responded with a sack, two tackles for loss and a quarterback hit in 37 defensive snaps.

His fourth-quarter tackle for a five-yard loss on Robinson was particularly impressive. Green attacked the run aggressively, got into the backfield and finished the play before it had a chance to develop.

He's becoming a much more complete defender, rather than simply a young edge rusher who can occasionally threaten quarterbacks with speed.

And then there was Tavius Robinson.

With Atlanta trying to protect its eight-point lead late in regulation, Robinson delivered a huge strip-sack of Penix. The Falcons recovered the fumble, but the hit injured Penix's ribs and eventually forced Tua Tagovailoa into the game.

The Ravens had finally produced the sort of disruptive pass-rush play they had struggled to generate at other critical moments this season. It was a fitting conclusion for a defense that had spent much of the night frustrating us without ever allowing the Falcons to completely take control.

Unfortunately, a few familiar problems persist.

Atlanta converted nine of 17 third downs, including an astonishing four conversions on third- and-10 or longer.

How many times are we going to watch this defense dominate first and second down, put an opponent in an obvious passing situation, and then surrender a conversion?

The Ravens have invested heavily in their secondary and have enough pass-rushing talent that third-and-long should be an advantage. Instead, opposing offenses frequently seem more comfortable throwing against Baltimore when they absolutely have to.

Drake London finished with seven catches for 118 yards, including several important third-down receptions. Apparently every opposing No. 1 receiver gets to schedule a career day against the Ravens this season.

Jesse Minter and Anthony Weaver have to figure this out. Some of the problems are undoubtedly individual. Corners have to cover. Defenders have to tackle. Pass rushers have to win their matchups.

But when the same issue keeps appearing against different opponents, the coaching staff has to examine whether the structure is contributing to it. Are the Ravens conceding too much underneath?

Are they protecting against explosive plays at the expense of intermediate routes?

Are the rush and coverage working together effectively enough on obvious passing downs?

Those are questions that deserve a closer look.

For now, the broader defensive performance was encouraging. Holding Atlanta to 16 offensive points, with several key starters unavailable, is exactly the kind of contribution the Ravens needed.

They stepped up when it mattered.

But the third-down defense remains a problem that could eventually undo a lot of their good work.

4. Mark Andrews is becoming a problem the Ravens cannot ignore

I don't know what has happened to Mark Andrews' hands.

There was a time when Andrews was one of the most dependable targets in football, particularly when Lamar Jackson needed someone to make a difficult catch in traffic.

That player feels increasingly distant.

Sunday's performance was about as bad as it gets for a veteran tight end.

On the opening possession, Andrews couldn't secure what should have been a touchdown.

Later, Sydney Brown knocked the football loose, allowing Jessie Bates to scoop it up and return it 36 yards for an Atlanta touchdown.

Then, after Henry's third-quarter touchdown, Andrews failed to secure a two-point conversion that would have tied the game.

Three enormous mistakes in scoring situations. The Ravens eventually won in overtime, but Andrews very nearly cost them the game. This is becoming more than an occasional dropped pass.

Andrews still understands the offense and can find openings against coverage. He proved that by making two important catches during the overtime touchdown drive.

But the ability to get open is only valuable if the player can reliably finish the play.

Whether it's ordinary drops, contested catches or defenders knocking the football out of his hands, Andrews has become increasingly unreliable in precisely the situations where he once provided the Ravens with a significant advantage.

It's particularly frustrating given the decision Baltimore made this offseason.

The Ravens committed to Andrews with a three-year, $39.3 million extension last December. Isaiah Likely subsequently left for the Giants on a three-year contract worth $40 million. Essentially the same money.

Through five games, Andrews has caught 22 passes for 177 yards and one touchdown. Likely has 33 receptions for 284 yards and four touchdowns in New York, with mostly a backup quarterback.

We'll never know whether Likely would have agreed to stay in Baltimore, regardless of the contract situation. Perhaps he wanted the opportunity to become the unquestioned starter elsewhere. Maybe there were other considerations behind the scenes.

The organization made its choice. And that choice becomes more baffling with every passing week.

The Ravens are not in a position to simply bench Andrews. Durham Smythe is lost for the season, Matt Hibner dealt with another injury Sunday and the tight-end room doesn't have enough established talent to discard a veteran who still understands the offense.

But Doyle needs to start looking for opportunities to give Hibner and Josh Cuevas more responsibility.

Both rookies offer athletic ability and receiving potential. Neither is a finished product, particularly when it comes to the blocking and route adjustments required of an NFL tight end.

Andrews played 55 offensive snaps against Atlanta, compared with 30 for Hibner and 19 for Cuevas. That allocation of playing time needs to become much less automatic.

5. The offensive line deserves some credit. Where does Jurgens fit next week?

The Ravens entered this game with serious concerns about their offensive line.

Ioane was forced to start at center again and Andrew Vorhees' absence forced Emery Jones Jr. into his first career start at right guard. Across from them was an Atlanta defense that had been exceptionally difficult to run against.

Given the circumstances, they delivered an extraordinary performance in the run game.

Henry and Hill combined to average 6.25 yards per rushing attempt overall. The Ravens consistently created enough room for their backs to get started, and the running game became particularly important in overtime.

The pass protection remains a different story. Huntley was sacked three times and there were too many snaps when pressure disrupted the timing of the passing game, particularly during the early portions of the contest.

Jones struggled at times in his first start, including on an early sack, and committed a holding penalty on the game-tying drive. There were also some erratic snaps from Vega Ioane that Huntley did well to handle.

It's difficult to build a consistent passing offense when the quarterback has to worry about both incoming defenders and whether the snap is going to arrive cleanly.

That makes the Cam Jurgens situation particularly interesting. The expectation is that Jurgens will take over at center when he's healthy, allowing Ioane to move back to guard. But I'm not sure the decision should be quite that automatic.

Ioane has been surprisingly effective since moving to center out of necessity. Against Tennessee, he played all 64 offensive snaps without allowing a pressure, despite facing an interior defensive line featuring Jeffery Simmons.

His performance against Atlanta was less convincing in pass protection, but the Ravens still managed to produce an excellent rushing performance against one of the league's toughest fronts.

Meanwhile, Jurgens hasn't been particularly good this season. Some of that can reasonably be attributed to circumstances, as the Eagles moved him from center to left guard after injuries disrupted their offensive line. His previous two seasons at center were considerably better, earning Pro Bowl selections.

But Jurgens is also capable of playing guard, having started at right guard earlier in his career. So the Ravens may have to consider where Ioane’s future lies.

They have already seen Ioane handle difficult interior matchups at center. They know Jurgens has experience at guard. And they still have questions about the performance of both guard positions.

The objective should be finding the five best linemen in the five positions where they collectively function best, not necessarily returning everyone to their original assignment.

SCOREBOARD
Saturday, November 7
AT CAPITALS 4	PANTHERS 3
CAPS GOALS: St. Ivany (1), Dubois (2), Tuch (11), A. Protas (2) GOALTENDER: Thompson RECORD: 9-6-0 NEXT GAME: November 10 at Ottawa

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